Winter 2012 / 2013

[mountain shadow]

Surely somewhere in the mid high latitudes in the northern hemisphere gets a cold winter every year?

Not exactly a difficult forecast to make.

[phil nw.]

I don't know if this has been posted yet, but this is another article regarding how the lack of Arctic ice may be beneficial this winter.

http://www.nature.co...-cycles-1.11387

“The impacts will become more apparent in autumn, once the freeze-up is under way and we see how circulation patterns have influenced the geographical distribution of sea ice,†says Judith Curry, a climate researcher at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta. But, she adds, “We can probably expect somewhere in the mid/high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere to have a snowy and cold winter.â€

An interesting read that Chio.Thanks.

The last 3 paras in particular would excite cold lovers.

With this record Ice minimum we are in a whole new ball game wrt thermal differences leading into this Winter.

I have seen talk of a weaker vortex and jet with a meridonal flow which would allow more blocking.

Of course it`s all speculative but fascinating just the same.

I don`t think even the experts really know how this will all pan out.

What`s the odds on a displaced vortex this year i wonder along with weaker Zonal winds?

Edited September 16, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[Dorsetbred]

I'm keeping everything crossed for a fantastic snowmageddon winter! I'm still a newbie with the models (and too scared too post my forecasts!) but will still be looking from late October for any patterns emerging.

Bring on the snow!

Aha another southerner, living in the snow free zone (actually a bit too far east but still).

Post your forecasts and be done with it, especially if you can get them to break to the snow dome over Poole/Bomo

[phil nw.]

Surely somewhere in the mid high latitudes in the northern hemisphere gets a cold winter every year?

Not exactly a difficult forecast to make.

The paper talks of "shifting weather patterns" MS.Sugesting blocking in different to normal areas.

[divadee]

Aha another southerner, living in the snow free zone (actually a bit too far east but still).

Post your forecasts and be done with it, especially if you can get them to break to the snow dome over Poole/Bomo

I know! We have a snow repellant over us don't we? I still remember that Wednesday night on the 1st December 2010. I got no sleep that night! Was up lamp post watching all night. Then panicked as we were driving to Germany on the Friday lol.

Here's hoping us south coasters get some decent weather this winter.

[chionomaniac]

Surely somewhere in the mid high latitudes in the northern hemisphere gets a cold winter every year?

Not exactly a difficult forecast to make.

I will quote the paragraph before then ms.

He reasons that in autumn, the open Arctic Ocean sheds heat to the high-latitude atmosphere. The warming tends to reduce the large-scale atmospheric-pressure gradient and weakens the dominant westerly winds in the Northern Hemisphere. Those winds normally sweep warm, moist Atlantic air to western Europe; their weakening leaves the region more prone to persistent cold.

[itsnowjoke]

The best thing to do to get a decent winter is go now and throw out all your winter stuff ...coats jumoers etc..

Then you will be guaranteed a cold one..although you may look a little silly making a snowman in shorts and flip flops.

The best thing to do to get a decentwinter is go now and throw out all your winter stuff ...coats jumpers

Then you will be guaranteed a cold one..although you may look a little silly making a snowman in shorts and flip flops.

Edited September 16, 2012 by itsnowjoke

[syed2878]

i wouldn't pay for mark vogan or james madden im mor than happy with g.p's w.forecast and the met's.

[Mark Neal.]

Encouraging signs, can't wait, bring on the snow!

[Mark Bayley]

Updated long range forecast maps from the metoffice, look nice!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

And

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

[Mark Neal.]

Updated long range forecast maps from the metoffice, look nice!

http://www.metoffice.../glob-seas-prob

And

http://www.metoffice...tlooks/ens-mean

Thanks for sharing, i like the look of them

[syed2878]

i wouldn't pay for mark vogan or james madden im mor than happy with g.p's w.forecast and the met's.

[feb1991blizzard]

January an absolute belter on this run, especially for the North, no record breaking temps on individual days, either uppers or surface temps i wouldn't have thought but real consistency all the way through the month, with plenty of precipitation, i would snap your hand off for this run.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2514&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&run=0

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

Wish that the weather was easy to track, I hate all this uncertainty about whether there will be snow this winter.

It is all to vague when you attempt to predict weather 3 months early, but I am still hopping for news on snow.

[The watcher]

Wish that the weather was easy to track, I hate all this uncertainty about whether there will be snow this winter.

It is all to vague when you attempt to predict weather 3 months early, but I am still hopping for news on snow.

There'll be snow alright, always is in the UK every winter, it's just where, when and how much.

You should pop your location into your profile and join in your regional forum, you'll get alot of warning of upcoming snow and cold spells.

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

There'll be snow alright, always is in the UK every winter, it's just where, when and how much.

You should pop your location into your profile and join in your regional forum, you'll get alot of warning of upcoming snow and cold spells.

Thanks for telling me this

[Mark Neal.]

Wish that the weather was easy to track, I hate all this uncertainty about whether there will be snow this winter.

It is all to vague when you attempt to predict weather 3 months early, but I am still hopping for news on snow.

But then we wouldn't have the fun of 'is it?' 'no it won't, nailbiting model runs, and then the model output going into overdrive as easterlies are forecasted with huge snowfall. lol

[MP-R]

Typical that the one winter I'll be in Spain on a year abroad, it's looking like a corker for the UK. Let's hope in reality the UK has a winter like 2006-2007 lol!

[SnowObsessor90]

Wish that the weather was easy to track, I hate all this uncertainty about whether there will be snow this winter.

It is all to vague when you attempt to predict weather 3 months early, but I am still hopping for news on snow.

Well let's just say that you'll be in a slightly more favorable position for snow than someone like me who lives further west, the best we could manage during that brief cold spell back in Feb was freezing rain and a few flakes.

Edited September 16, 2012 by Anonymous21

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

But then we wouldn't have the fun of 'is it?' 'no it won't, nailbiting model runs, and then the model output going into overdrive as easterlies are forecasted with huge snowfall. lol

I love the this run up but I often find myself looking at the different graphs several times on a empty day hopping they will have changed in the last half hour.

[feb1991blizzard]

But then we wouldn't have the fun of 'is it?' 'no it won't, nailbiting model runs, and then the model output going into overdrive as easterlies are forecasted with huge snowfall. lol

Yes i love it when its absolute meltdown on the forums, even this thread started to motor a bit on friday night, nothing like the model output thread does in winter though when a 'Murr' sausage scandi high brings the -20 850hpa line roaring into Kent with some nice tight isobars to boot. The best days model watching last winter was the last saturday in Jan but i missed most of it, pity none of the 87 style runs verified though.

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

Well let's just say that you'll be in a slightly more favorable position for snow than someone like me who lives further west, the best we could manage during that brief cold spell back in Feb was freezing rain and a few flakes.

I am in cheshire to so there should not be much difference.

[SnowObsessor90]

I am in cheshire to so there should not be much difference.

True but I live that little further west closer to Liverpool which can still make the difference between marginal and slightly less marginal in certain circumstances.

But of course in more extreme case's like January and December 2010 none of that really matters.

[AderynCoch]

Typical that the one winter I'll be in Spain on a year abroad, it's looking like a corker for the UK. Let's hope in reality the UK has a winter like 2006-2007 lol!

Whereabouts in Spain are you going? If there's a sinking Scandinavian High you could be in business.

I'm going to be in Australia so definitely no snow for me. At least I'll get to experience a proper summer though (I've almost forgotten what that feels like).

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

True but I live that little further west closer to Liverpool which can still make the difference between marginal and slightly less marginal in certain circumstances.

But of course in more extreme case's like January and December 2010 none of that really matters.

I am hopping for a 2010 Christmas to.