Winter 2012 / 2013

[stewfox]

Im interested in seeing how this Autumn plays out. Some think that the Siberian snow cover in Autumn can be an indicator to the severity of the winter of western Europe.And then there is the theory that the Autumn weather can be a precursor to the winter ahead.

Does anyone here believe there is a link between the Autumn and Winter weather?

I certainly think that a vast Siberian snow cover can aid the setup of A Scandinavian High in winter.

You can check Siberian snow cover in Autumns of the last 50 years or more against severity of western Europen winter weather and find I believe no correlation.

People often talk about a mild Autumn can lead to a colder winter but again 350yrs of CET records show no correlation between what happens in the autumn months impacts on the winter months.

Could we get more locked in patterns in future years because of reduced latitudinal temperature gradients (melting artic ice etc) who knows. We are such a marginal Island.

However we do have data that supports a theory that tee shirt weather in october doesnt imply snow shovels in January.

Edited September 15, 2012 by stewfox

[chionomaniac]

Any winter forecast form this range is pure guesswork, Although it is fun to speculate

This is especially true from computer models. From this range, experienced professionals will outperform computer models.

I personally would use the CFS to look at the Autumn weather. There is little point looking at the CFS forecast for 3 months away. The current forecast could be 100% accurate, but this is completely irrelevant, because the CFS constantly chops and changes. When winter draws nearer and CFS begins to show consistency then we can begin to take it seriously, IMO.

The British weather is notoriously difficult to predict at long range, especially in winter. To the west, a warm Atlantic ocean, and to the east a freezing continent. Small changes in forecast pressure patterns, could drastically change the weather we experience. So where The CFS may be more useful for the U.S.A, it is of little use in predicting our weather at this range.

Im interested in seeing how this Autumn plays out. Some think that the Siberian snow cover in Autumn can be an indicator to the severity of the winter of western Europe.And then there is the theory that the Autumn weather can be a precursor to the winter ahead.

Does anyone here believe there is a link between the Autumn and Winter weather?

I certainly think that a vast Siberian snow cover can aid the setup of A Scandinavian High in winter.

Hi Zakos

I missed this earlier, but there is a link between the extent of autumnal Siberian snow cover and later winter cold spells through stratospheric feedback. I will dig out the paper later when I get home.

c

[Methuselah]

Hi Zakos

I missed this earlier, but there is a link between the extent of autumnal Siberian snow cover and later winter cold spells through stratospheric feedback. I will dig out the paper later when I get home.

c

I agree, C.While I concur with all those who don't subscribe to the all the 'cold, warm, wet, dry or windy' Autumns means Yamkinesque amounts of snow, come January schools-of-thought, ubiquitous deep snow in Siberia ought to lead to the development of deeper, colder air masses...Which would (even based on first principles of thermodynamics?) in the event of ideal synoptics, allow for more-severe spells of cold weather.

That said, however cold the air over Siberia may become, there's never any guarantee that it'll necessarily find its way over here...

[johnholmes]

I have yet to see ANY indicator from autumn that can be used as a consistently accurate predictor for the subsequent winter. I take the point about Asian snow cover as being a valid point but there are so many other factors to take into account it is only going to be a major player when other factors are helping a 'cold' winter into reality.

For those who hang on every output in the seasonal outlooks do take a look at previous such outputs, they are RARELY correct, at least with sufficient frequency for any real use to be made of them.

The news cover about UK Met and their latest long range model is interesting but it needs to show accuracy consistently before I or I suspect they will make much 'nosie' about it.

Looking at trends in the various seasonal outputs is the only way to pick up any clues, consistency in any range of forecasting, especially when differing models give similar results is what to look for. Picking one model output when it shows what the majority on here want to see=deep cold and snow, is no proof it is going to be correct.

Last autumn into winter with the daily CFS checks I did, the ensemble outputs from CFS did eventually settle into something close to what occurred but it was mid December before that consistency developed. Prior to that, especially the raw CFS was as much use as a chocolate fireguard in predicting what happened. The regular ouputs of European anomalies were rather similar from memory.

So to sum up, don't fall for any individual output from any source, look for trends and for differing models consistenly coming up with similar charts.

But fun for many of you when it shows 1947, 1962-63 type charts!

Edited September 15, 2012 by johnholmes

[chionomaniac]

Here is the link.

http://www.nws.noaa....ohen_062211.htm

[AWD]

Just noticed this tweet from Joe Ba*stardi:

UK beware. a heck of a winter is lurking. Water temps resemble what's going on around Alaska http://t.co/L3rgw3bD

[Chris D]

Just noticed this tweet from Joe Ba*stardi:

UK beware. a heck of a winter is lurking. Water temps resemble what's going on around Alaska http://t.co/L3rgw3bD

Let's all get the shovels ready then! Hahaha............

Errr, no.

Just a smidgen too early, Joe.

Edited September 15, 2012 by Chris D

[Gavin Hannah]

Let's all get the shovels ready then! Hahaha............

Errr, no.

Just a smidgen too early, Joe.

I'll take his word for it. If he's wrong, then I will be striking him off my Christmas card list.

[Methuselah]

Just noticed this tweet from Joe Ba*stardi:

UK beware. a heck of a winter is lurking. Water temps resemble what's going on around Alaska http://t.co/L3rgw3bD

Oh dear!

[Karl83]

I know he made a video back in 2010 saying how since 2012/13 would be a winter coming out of La Nina the chances of significant cold (across the US anyway) were enhanced based on past events, is that what you were referring to?

Sort of, but he was talking about the UK and Europe at the time. I will find the article if I can.

I am sure he predicted the milder winter last year and said not to expect as much snow as the previous winter. TBH, I put my trust in what he says until he gets it wrong. James Madden on the other hand.....

Edited September 15, 2012 by Thunder_Bolt

[Summer Sun]

This is what Joe said a few years back most of it is for the US but I'm certain he said something similar for Europe

AccuWeather.com Long Range Expert Joe Bastar*di believes there is a significant chance for particularly frigid winters in 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 into 2014-2015.

Bastar*di said these winters could be similar to winters of the late 1970s.

He said, "While the most consistent of the cold is to the north, severe bouts of cold deep into Texas and Florida would be capable of affecting agriculture more so than we've seen in that last 20 years or so."

A combination of factors that parallel the precursors to historically cold winters is leading Bastar*di to this forecast.

He said, "We have a cold Pacific now. We had a La Nina, El Nino, then a stronger La Nina [similar to the cycle] that happened in the early to mid '70s that set up the winters of the late '70s."

The winters of the late 1970s were particularly cold. laminate floori believes the winters of 2012-2013, 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 will be similar. Image courtesy of NOAA.

These weather patterns, plus the wild cards of volcanic activity and solar activity, have laminate floori looking ahead.

"The last time we had arctic volcanoes go off, in 1912 - similar to what we had two winters ago - the winters three years removed got very bad across the United States," Bastar*di said.

"If we put together the combination of La Nina, El Nino, La Nina again and we look at what happened when that happened before with a cold Pacific, and we also understand that the volcanoes may be involved along with the low sunspot activity, one could come to the conclusion that a series of very cold winters... could be on the way," he said.

Bastar*di said this is all part of a natural pattern of reversal which he believes will lead to a crash in global temperatures over the next nine months, from the very warm levels set off by El Nino - as forecast globally by AccuWeather.com.

In the longer term, this is all part of a cyclical event which Bastar*di believes will return the earth's temperatures by 2030 back to where they were in the late '70s at the end of the last cold PDO [Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or El Nino like pattern] and the beginning of the satellite era of measuring temperatures objectively.

[A Winter's Tale]

Just noticed this tweet from Joe Ba*stardi:

UK beware. a heck of a winter is lurking. Water temps resemble what's going on around Alaska http://t.co/L3rgw3bD

Oh he isn't at it again surely? When will that bar-steward learn!

[sundog]

Did joe b not say last yr that winter 2011-12 would b milder for nw europe with the main cold for se europe? He was fairly right was he not last winter?

[Eskimo]

Did joe b not say last yr that winter 2011-12 would b milder for nw europe with the main cold for se europe? He was fairly right was he not last winter?

Indeed, Joe is sometimes right and sometimes wrong.

[Methuselah]

Indeed, Joe is sometimes right and sometimes wrong.

Aye, but he's often no more correct than someone using chicken entrails!

[snowfluff]

Aye, but he's often no more correct than someone using chicken entrails!

Link please?

[Summer Sun]

With regards to the Joe B tweet posted a few post's above Matt Hugo has tweeted the following

Ian Fergusson â€

Hmmm.. “@BigJoe: UK beware. a heck of a winter is lurking. Water temps resemble what's going on around Alaska

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81

@fergieweather - Hmmm exactly. He's been wrong more than right in my opinion.

[johnholmes]

re Joe

He is worth watching and listening too but tends to let his heart (cold lover) rule his meteorological brain in my view-just my view but watch/listen its always interesting.

I stand by my post earlier today, no model, no forecaster has enough correct forecasts in the past 5 years let alone over a 10 year period to be really the one to follow, that applies to professional forecasters/centres and amateur ones. It applies to any predictions 3 months in advance be it for winter or summer.

[Karl83]

Did joe b not say last yr that winter 2011-12 would b milder for nw europe with the main cold for se europe? He was fairly right was he not last winter?

Yes he did you are right. It will be interesting to see if he is on to something for this year but I guess its just a case of wait and see. If he's wrong then my opinions of his forecasting will change.

[cooling climate]

I'll take his word for it. If he's wrong, then I will be striking him off my Christmas card list.

He had a terrible cold season last year in the states kept changing his mind and then

changing it back again.Torch, freeze, torch and then freeze but the winter was basically

just one long torch.

There I think several climatogical indices to be optimistic about at this stage ....

a) The very likelyhood that we will see -QBO in the mid to lower stratosphere at least

until mid winter. The mid to upper stratosphere +QBO does not seem to want to propagate

downwards. I have been calling this for weeks now.

B) The higher stratosphere up to the stratopause is very cold.This should allow the differential

between the Equatorial and polar stratosphere to be weaker allowing perhaps a weaker

vortex.

c)solar activity is generally low with the odd moderate to high spike we would want the low

activity to continue. What we do not want to see is the high solar activity (the highest of

cycle 24 so far and will I think remain so) that we saw in late October and through November.

d)Higher ozone levels than we saw last Autumn and winter. Ozone levels were very low in the

spring of 2011 (accompanied by a very cold stratosphere) and these levels never really

recovered.

e) Enso which is likely to be weak to moderate El Nino should help promote wave breaking into

the lower and mid stratosphere (especially if it is central based rather than east based) this of

course would be better still if it is accompanied by a active MJO and fairly strong STJ(southern

tropical jet).

One thing I am confused by on the latest ECMWF long range for DJF is that it apparently still

promotes a fairly robust Alaskan ridge. This to me would mean greater hights entering the

Arctic so more chance of blocking and meridonal pattern down stream over the UK and Europe

rather than a Zonal pattern. Remember last year we saw a deep low entrenched over Alaska

bringing a bitter winter to those parts and also aiding in a very zonal northern hemisphere

pattern which was to be expected.

[cyclonic happiness]

Oh he isn't at it again surely? When will that bar-steward learn!

He's as good as anyone else at predicting chaos, don't you think?

[AWD]

He's as good as anyone else at predicting chaos, don't you think?

Mmmmm............ who do I like better?

Joe Bast*ardi or James Madden...........

There's only one way to find out..........

[Gavin Hannah]

He had a terrible cold season last year in the states kept changing his mind and then

changing it back again.Torch, freeze, torch and then freeze but the winter was basically

just one long torch.

There I think several climatogical indices to be optimistic about at this stage ....

a) The very likelyhood that we will see -QBO in the mid to lower stratosphere at least

until mid winter. The mid to upper stratosphere +QBO does not seem to want to propagate

downwards. I have been calling this for weeks now.

The higher stratosphere up to the stratopause is very cold.This should allow the differential

between the Equatorial and polar stratosphere to be weaker allowing perhaps a weaker

vortex.

c)solar activity is generally low with the odd moderate to high spike we would want the low

activity to continue. What we do not want to see is the high solar activity (the highest of

cycle 24 so far and will I think remain so) that we saw in late October and through November.

d)Higher ozone levels than we saw last Autumn and winter. Ozone levels were very low in the

spring of 2011 (accompanied by a very cold stratosphere) and these levels never really

recovered.

e) Enso which is likely to be weak to moderate El Nino should help promote wave breaking into

the lower and mid stratosphere (especially if it is central based rather than east based) this of

course would be better still if it is accompanied by a active MJO and fairly strong STJ(southern

tropical jet).

One thing I am confused by on the latest ECMWF long range for DJF is that it apparently still

promotes a fairly robust Alaskan ridge. This to me would mean greater hights entering the

Arctic so more chance of blocking and meridonal pattern down stream over the UK and Europe

rather than a Zonal pattern. Remember last year we saw a deep low entrenched over Alaska

bringing a bitter winter to those parts and also aiding in a very zonal northern hemisphere

pattern which was to be expected.

Not to mention a NAO taking a nose dive....

[The watcher]

I cannot wait to see the official winter forecasts by some on here, they are usually very good and well put together. It's great to divulge in their knowledge aswell, learning how to do your own as you go.

[Weather-history]

It will be interesting to do a poll on what type of Countryfile forecast you want to see this winter

An early Feb 1996 type

Or an early Feb 1998 type