Winter 2012 / 2013

[EML Network]

IF ONLY today was 29th Dec ....

[Keraunic]

I hope it's not too cold. Some snow in January is always good though as it brightens up the dark days somehow. Having said that, I do like really frigid frosts.

[Karl83]

IF ONLY today was 29th Dec ....

Can't wait to see charts like this nearer Winter. I am addicted to this thread like others have said, already! It's gona be one big let down if its mild. lol.

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

IF ONLY today was 29th Dec ....

That yellow is to close for comfort.

[johnholmes]

My mind has just gone blank was it high or low pressure for snow

just a suggestion but try the Net Wx Guides for help understanding charts, also what type of set ups for snow, how to predict snow from the charts and lots lots more. All in simple everyday English, no techno babble!

welcome to the nut house

[Eskimo]

That yellow is to close for comfort.

Looks perfect to me, ridging up to greenland blocking the Atlantic which in turn will stop the mundane westerlies.

[chiffer]

There's seems to be alot more talk about winter than any other year I've known, although I know its impossible to get a grip on December onwards at the moment I at least know this year that in being told there's alot of contributing factors that cold bring below average temps, whether or not they'll pan out is another thing but they've made me more hopeful than last year. Just please don't send any bad weather to Portugal at the end of this month because that's were I'll be!

[Harve]

Since the tep is currently lower then average this means we could be in with a chance at a freezing winter. also dident the snow start in November 2009 so if it is going to be a winter like the 2009/10 then shouldn't we start seeing signs in October.

Not at all. November 2009 was notably mild, as was the first half of the following December, even. While I'm sure correlations could be made between autumn and following winter temperatures, it's nothing close to a guarantee of anything.

[CanadaAl]

You disappoint me.

Oh c'mon Barry! just kidding, i just find you can get more intellectual discussion out of this compared to DM where Skorge just fancies having a go at anyone who doesn't like the MO. Anyways, good to see you here, any thoughts?

[Mark Neal.]

There's seems to be alot more talk about winter than any other year I've known, although I know its impossible to get a grip on December onwards at the moment I at least know this year that in being told there's alot of contributing factors that cold bring below average temps, whether or not they'll pan out is another thing but they've made me more hopeful than last year. Just please don't send any bad weather to Portugal at the end of this month because that's were I'll be!

I think after last winter dissapointment in comparison to recent years. We have been used to seeing snowfall and cold conditions. After 2009/2010 and Late 2010 we are really focused on seeing a repeat of conditions, lets hope for even better this time around

Edited September 17, 2012 by Mark 'Ox' Neal

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

There's seems to be alot more talk about winter than any other year I've known, although I know its impossible to get a grip on December onwards at the moment I at least know this year that in being told there's alot of contributing factors that cold bring below average temps, whether or not they'll pan out is another thing but they've made me more hopeful than last year. Just please don't send any bad weather to Portugal at the end of this month because that's were I'll be!

This is probably because of the 2 winters of heavy snow which made people think that this would be the trend for the next winters. This was then spoiled by last years mild winter, so people are hopping for a big freeze to make up for it.

this is the reason for me anyway.

[Mark Neal.]

This is probably because of the 2 winters of heavy snow which made people think that this would be the trend for the next winters. This was then spoiled by last years mild winter, so people are hopping for a big freeze to make up for it.

this is the reason for me anyway.

You seem to mention Hopping quite alot, first sign of snow and i will be hopping mad too

[Radiating Dendrite]

Lots of cold signals being mentioned.

What opposite signals are there also currently in play which could point towards a milder winter?

[gsteruk]

yeah i think it is that 09/10 was such a wonderful example of the weather we all love, and last years winter...pfft!! as difficult as it was to get out and about in the severe weather, id much rather prefer it to last years total dissapointment. I know autumn weather doesnt necesarily relate to the following winter, but the autumnal feel at the mo is quite strong, a familiar nip starting to appear in the air - love it! :-)

[Methuselah]

Don't worry, guys. Although we've only had two notably cold winters in the last decade - every single Autumn has been dominated by ubiquitous 'indications of future cold'...So, who knows? 'Nobody' is my suspicion...

[Jimmyh]

no doubt about it. it wil either rain or snow cloudy or sunny frosty or mild

not ramping it this year watching and waiting

[SnowObsessor90]

Lots of cold signals being mentioned.

What opposite signals are there also currently in play which could point towards a milder winter?

The possibility of that good old friend of ours the big, fat and immovable euro high being with us again by the start of October for one thing. Even the MetO are starting to lean towards it a bit now.

Edited September 17, 2012 by Anonymous21

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

has anyone got some more info on december and november charts that could help me learn about reading them.

[Gavin P]

Hi all,

Here's my first winter 2012/2013 round-up.;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/seasonal.html

I explore SST's, solar activity and ice and snow cover to see how things are currently developing.

Very early days of course, so more updates will follow throughout the autumn.

At the weekend I'll be having a look at the seasonal models to see what they are showing.

Thanks all.

Edited September 17, 2012 by Gavin P

[Letitsnowyorkshire]

has anyone got some more info on december and november charts that could help me learn about reading them.

Hello and welcome. I am pretty new to this game too , this will only be my second winter watching these forums and studying the charts . I find when the Winter area on here goes live it really helps with understanding the terminology behind what is happening and what we need to look out for in terms of chance of snow ( other than lampost watching ) I also found this a great investment http://www.amazon.co.uk/Understand-Weather-Yourself-Peter-Innes/dp/1444103105/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1347884978&sr=8-2

Have a great winter !!

Edited September 17, 2012 by Letitsnowyorkshire

[Suburban Streamer]

Don't worry, guys. Although we've only had two notably cold winters in the last decade - every single Autumn has been dominated by ubiquitous 'indications of future cold'...So, who knows? 'Nobody' is my suspicion...

i do largely agree with u. However, this time last year there really wasnt the level of positivity that is currently occuring. there were lots of conflicting signals. this year the weak el nino, and forecasted -qbo, low solar activity, sea ice extent etc etc are all pointing in one direction.

Of course its way too early and i'm trying very hard not to get excited but i gotta admit i'm very much encourgaed despite it being so early in Autumn.

if i just jinxed the whole of winter i'm sorry!!

Edited September 17, 2012 by Suburban Streamer

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

Hello and welcome. I am pretty new to this game too , this will only be my second winter watching these forums and studying the charts . I find when the Winter area on here goes live it really helps with understanding the terminology behind what is happening and what we need to look out for in terms of chance of snow ( other than lampost watching ) I also found this a great investment http://www.amazon.co...47884978&sr=8-2

Have a great winter !!

thankyou for ths. i am allready picking up on things by reading this thred.

[cheeky_monkey]

Accuweather have now issued there winter forecast for the US

There UK forecast shouldn't be to far away now

This is very much an El Nino forecast for North America...wet and cold in California and the SE USA, mild and dry across most of Canada and the mid west of the USA...more snow in the north east....I wouldn't not trust accuweather either, they forecast a brutally cold winter last year for Canada and it was the 2nd mildest on record!

[Eskimo]

Theyve missed out sone of the US, does that mean it will be a normal winter for them?

[Karl83]

This is very much an El Nino forecast for North America...wet and cold in California and the SE USA, mild and dry across most of Canada and the mid west of the USA...more snow in the north east....I wouldn't not trust accuweather either, they forecast a brutally cold winter last year for Canada and it was the 2nd mildest on record!

And what did they forecast the year before that? You can't always get it right I guess. You are in the right location for decent winters though.