Winter 2012 / 2013

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

http://t.co/dAccIUTS

Another good read from Matt Hugo regarding early signs for the coming winter. Similiar to Steve Murr's earlier post and both in agreement that so far, at this early stage, its looking promising for cold conditions.

Indeed I isolated the QBO above for ease of use. It'll be full steam ahead when Chiono starts his thread in earnest re the stratos.

BFTP

[Mark Neal.]

All you need is a lamp post and a window

Also good to have a radar subscription, really is worth the money, especially when you can establish what precipitation type also..

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

All you need is a lamp post and a window

There is a lamp post right outside my window.

[Gavin P]

Epic post from Big Steve. Great post from BFTP also

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

Also good to have a radar subscription, really is worth the money, especially when you can establish what precipitation type also..

Do u have a link to one

[Megan Enticknap]

SO, SO, SO, breifly, should we be expecting a white christmas or..............................

[Suburban Streamer]

Do u have a link to one

netweather have a great radar here http://www.netweathe...tion=radar;sess=

there is also www.raintoday.co.uk

but if u want to see the precip type (rain, snow etc) and 5 minute updates rather than 15 minute, then both radars offer a paid version.

hopefully we wont be in marginal situations so the free radars will do the trick!

SO, SO, SO, breifly, should we be expecting a white christmas or..............................

Hell yeah.....lol

Edited September 18, 2012 by Suburban Streamer

[Eskimo]

SO, SO, SO, breifly, should we be expecting a white christmas or..............................

Briefly? No, maybe, yes we are...who knows.

[Mark Neal.]

netweather have a great radar here http://www.netweathe...tion=radar;sess=

there is also www.raintoday.co.uk

but if u want to see the precip type (rain, snow etc) and 5 minute updates rather than 15 minute, then both radars offer a paid version.

hopefully we wont be in marginal situations so the free radars will do the trick!

Beat me to it!

If you have a iphone,android, Meteo group subscription is very good also.

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

SO, SO, SO, breifly, should we be expecting a white christmas or..............................

I hope so but nobody really knows at this early stage.

[Megan Enticknap]

last year was reeeeally dissapointing. i wanted to cry up until march when we had a day of snow and that was it for the whole of winter! pffft!

i'm keeping my fingers crossed!

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

netweather have a great radar here http://www.netweathe...tion=radar;sess=

there is also www.raintoday.co.uk

but if u want to see the precip type (rain, snow etc) and 5 minute updates rather than 15 minute, then both radars offer a paid version.

hopefully we wont be in marginal situations so the free radars will do the trick!

They have gone in my bookmarks.

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

last year was reeeeally dissapointing. i wanted to cry up until march when we had a day of snow and that was it for the whole of winter! pffft!

i'm keeping my fingers crossed!

I am with you

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Ditto all the positive comments regarding the more wiser and meteorological oracles of this forum! It is not until you start reading forums like this that you start to realise just how complex predicitng the weather actually is! I have to say just getting your head around all of the acronyms is job in itself!

[Coast]

When the season is here and we get within a few days of more likely potential, apart from the wonderful suit of charts and live information on Netweather Extra, I have found this site to be reasonably accurate 2 or 3 days beforehand:

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

As soon as we do get into the Winter, I shall be ramping in the appropriate threads with all the usual (or should that be unusual?) suspects!

[Megan Enticknap]

i just can't wait! i wanna sing to you all!

[Summer Sun]

Will be interesting to see which paper (Express is my bet) runs the first cold winter story, anyone remember the story in the Express on 20th September 2011 under the headline BRITAIN FACES AN EARLY BIG FREEZE which in the end never happened http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/272457/Britain-faces-an-early-big-freeze

[Eskimo]

When the season is here and we get within a few days of more likely potential, apart from the wonderful suit of charts and live information on Netweather Extra, I have found this site to be reasonably accurate 2 or 3 days beforehand:

http://www.snow-fore...maps/dynamic/uk

As soon as we do get into the Winter, I shall be ramping in the appropriate threads with all the usual (or should that be unusual?) suspects!

Favourited that one, many have posted screenshots of that particular chart but never knew where the existing website was, thanks!

[Suburban Streamer]

When the season is here and we get within a few days of more likely potential, apart from the wonderful suit of charts and live information on Netweather Extra, I have found this site to be reasonably accurate 2 or 3 days beforehand:

http://www.snow-fore...maps/dynamic/uk

also, http://www.wunderground.com/ has ecm/gfs snowfall charts. ive not managed to find ecm snow charts on any other site

Edited September 18, 2012 by Suburban Streamer

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

cant wait for the Santa shaker to return.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=xmas;sess=

[Karl83]

Yes you need to read as much as you can that explains things as simply as possible, be it the Net Wx Guides or others you will find on the web.

The site below is a first class site for explaining all manner of things in as simple a way as possible. It also has the added benefit that most of the data on it has been provided by ex senior meteorologists with UK Met.

http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/

I often read WeatherFaqs. Its great to start with and to refer to!

I have an article from Matt Hugo with conditions needed for snow, i.e. The parameters etc etc.... Would it be ok to copy and paste it here? Or somewhere else? Or maybe its already been posted?

Edited September 18, 2012 by Thunder_Bolt

[Karl83]

Sod it I'm posting it. If it's in the wrong area please move but will help some peeps with knowledge and what charts they should look at nearer Winter time....

The below was written by Matt Hugo so a big thanks to him

I thought I would run through the general list of meteorological 'ingredients' that are needed to produce snowfall. I stress that the list below is a guide, a rule of thumb, the more of the criteria that are met the overall greater chance you have of seeing snowfall. Snow forecasting is tricky and minor local variations can make all the difference between rain or snow.

Upper Air Ingredients:

A precipitation maker, low pressure, trough, vorticity feature. Any cyclonic event that can produce precipitation, the more potent the cyclonic feature the better.

500mb Temps: At or below -25ºC (below -30ºC preferable)

850mb Temps: At or below -5ºC (below -7ºC/-8ºC preferable)

1000-850mb thickness: At or below 130dm

1000-500mb thickness: At or below 525dm (below 520dam preferable)

850mb theta-w (wet bulb potential temp): At or below 2ºC (below 0ºC peferable).

Wet Bulb Zero (WBZ): Height figures will vary, but gives a general/good idea as to what altitudes (200m, 300m etc) snow will fall down to. Calculated in conjunction with evaporational cooling.

3000ft or over: Always rain, snow highly unlikely.

2000ft-3000ft: Mostly rain, snow unlikely, low risk of sleet.

1000ft-2000ft: Snow more likely than rain/sleet.

below 1000ft: Mostly snow, light precipitation and low lying ground may still see sleet/rain.

Surface Conditions:

Surface Temperature: At or below 1.5ºC (below 0ºC preferable).

Surface Dew Point: **Highly variable**, At or below 0ºC.

As a general guide if 4 of the above criteria have been met then in general there would be a 50% risk of precipitation being snow. If 6 criteria had been met the risk would be 75% and obviously if all 8 have been satisfied than the general risk of snow would pretty much be 100%.

Edited September 18, 2012 by Thunder_Bolt

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

What are the reasons for snow falling and not sticking to the ground?

[AWD]

What are the reasons for snow falling and not sticking to the ground?

Wet surface conditions, warm surface conditions, wet, slushy snow.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Dew point as well.