Winter 2012 / 2013

[Suburban Streamer]

the only thing this thread is missing is a RAMP from Yamkin!

Edited September 18, 2012 by Suburban Streamer

[Aaron]

Dew point is absolutely key. Back in April on the 4th it began to snow but would not stick. As soon as the dew point fell below freezing, the snow began to stick.

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

What is a RAMP

[Methuselah]

Dew point is absolutely key. Back in April on the 4th it began to snow but would not stick. As soon as the dew point fell below freezing, the snow began to stick.

Not to mention the actual air temperature?

[Aaron]

Well, yeah, but the air temperature does not need to be below freezing for snow to stick, as was demonstrated back in April.

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

Dew point is absolutely key. Back in April on the 4th it began to snow but would not stick. As soon as the dew point fell below freezing, the snow began to stick.

I remember that.

[Eskimo]

What is a RAMP

Ramp is short for 'ramping' which means to over-exaggerate and big something up.

Edited September 18, 2012 by Perfect Storm

[Radiating Dendrite]

What is a RAMP

When somebody is over enthusiastic! lol.

[Aaron]

When someone says it's going to snow on Christmas Day in September..

[chiffer]

Generally the dew point has to be 0c or below for snow to Stick or unless other conditions are absolutely perfect

[Nights King]

850mb Temps: At or below -5ºC (below -7ºC/-8ºC preferable)

Idealy yes but can be quite variable and I have seen snow continue to fall even above -2c 850's

[AWD]

850mb Temps: At or below -5ºC (below -7ºC/-8ºC preferable)

Idealy yes but can be quite variable and I have seen snow continue to fall even above -2c 850's

Which down in our part of the world is more common than even seeing uppers approaching

-10c. Lol.

[feb1991blizzard]

November looking a good month on the CFS 6z with a scandinavian HP dominating, no cold pooling there to tap into on this run but if it stayed around for any length of time there certainly could be, obviously far to early to call Nov with any certainty but if the GFS was starting to show these sort of runs in say a months time then you would have to say thats a signal, you know the default conditions for November and they are the opposite to these.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1080&mode=0&carte=0&run=0

[Radiating Dendrite]

When someone says it's going to snow on Christmas Day in September..

What you mean it is not going too?

[Coast]

What is a RAMP

What are the reasons for snow falling and not sticking to the ground?

All your snow questions answered:

http://www.snow-fore...pages/nsidc-faq

[Eskimo]

Not strictly related but it's going to feel more wintry as of late tonight with lows in rural places perhaps getting down to freezing point in the North.

[SMU]

http://t.co/dAccIUTS

Another good read from Matt Hugo regarding early signs for the coming winter. Similiar to Steve Murr's earlier post and both in agreement that so far, at this early stage, its looking promising for cold conditions.

That post is almost identical to mine from last night- I havent spoke to Matt for 2/3 years- im glad we are on the same page!

S

[BornFromTheVoid]

I posted this is the SST thread but I think it's relevant here too..

The latest ENSO update from the NOAA.

Summary points are

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch*

• ENSO-neutral conditions continue.*

• Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) are greater than 0.5°C above average across the eastern Pacific Ocean.

• The atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific is near average.

• El Niño conditions are likely to develop during September 2012.*

Lots more detail and analysis in the link here http://www.cpc.ncep....s-fcsts-web.pdf

It seems weak Nino or neutral conditions most likely through to next Spring.

[Staffordshire]

Haha i must say i do love looking on here at all you lot getting all excited! , got a good feeling about this one though!

[Methuselah]

Haha i must say i do love looking on here at all you lot getting all excited! , got a good feeling about this one though!

If the coming winter is anything, it's sure to be entertaining: either loads of snow - or loads of folks with egg on their faces!

[gsteruk]

...or possibly just a lot of people passing the time by having a good time? noone as far as i can tell is making any predictions outside of "i wish" are they? i wonder what people expect when they come into a thread with the title winter 2012/2013? seems a simple thread to avoid if anyone doesnt want to read about winter 2012/2013 - dont click on the link that says winter 2012/2013....lol

[Suburban Streamer]

or loads of folks with egg on their faces!

I think as long as a forecast is well explained and backed up, then even if its wrong there is no need for any eggs! Because even a failed forecast helps both the forecaster and people reading it to learn. We all know lrf is far from being an exact science

[NO LONGER POSTING]

When somebody is over enthusiastic! lol.

Like me most of the time

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

Not strictly related but it's going to feel more wintry as of late tonight with lows in rural places perhaps getting down to freezing point in the North.

I am feeling the chill.

[EML Network]

This thread is fascinating, personally after so many near misses down this way, I won't believe anything until I see if accumulating outside my window.

The early indications are looking favourable, but we need so many pieces of the jigsaw to fall into place to hit ''The Mother Load".

I always go with my gut instincts, despite what the charts show me (when looking more than 3 weeks head), and sadly my gut is telling me that this winter is going to end up on the milder side of average, I think we'll all be pinning our hopes on some brief cold snaps rather than anything prolonged..I hope I am wrong, I really do.