Winter 2012 / 2013

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

It is definitely colder then last year.

http://www.accuweath...-weather/329267

This thread is fascinating, personally after so many near misses down this way, I won't believe anything until I see if accumulating outside my window.

The early indications are looking favourable, but we need so many pieces of the jigsaw to fall into place to hit ''The Mother Load".

I always go with my gut instincts, despite what the charts show me (when looking more than 3 weeks head), and sadly my gut is telling me that this winter is going to end up on the milder side of average, I think we'll all be pinning our hopes on some brief cold snaps rather than anything prolonged..I hope I am wrong, I really do.

Best you don't get too excited so if it does snow then you will be really happy, and if it doesn't then it won't feel such a let down.

Has anyone got some Interesting CFS charts?

[Summer Sun]

It is definitely colder then last year.

http://www.accuweath...-weather/329267

Best you don't get too excited so if it does snow then you will be really happy, and if it doesn't then it won't feel such a let down.

Has anyone got some Interesting CFS charts?

CFS V2 continues to show a mild December which it has been showing for a week or more now

And for the rest of winter CFS V2 shows the following

And rainfall for winter as a whole

And temperatures for winter as a whole

[Karl83]

CFS V2 continues to show a mild December which it has been showing for a week or more now

And for the rest of winter CFS V2 shows the following

And rainfall for winter as a whole

And temperatures for winter as a whole

So mild almost everywhere? Jeez. Good job its only September then!

Edited September 18, 2012 by Thunder_Bolt

[AWD]

So mild almost everywhere? Jeez. Good job its only September then!

I wouldn't give too much credit to the CFS. Whilst it can't be ignored, and it is still a model, it does tend to vary a lot and at this timescale, like many other things, can be wrong just as much as it is right.

If I remember right, John Holmes gave an insight into the CFS output on the run up to last winter and it wasn't the best then. There is a post from John many pages back in regards to this.

[Gavin Hannah]

Indeed, was it not the CFS that hinted at a cold winter last year or tried to bring in colder conditions only to constantly have to give in to that pesky euro high?

[feb1991blizzard]

Its not like its just Nina like Bartlett driven 1989 type conditions throught the CFS runs anyway, Negative monthly CET values are rare, i have only had 3 in my lifetime i think so to get a month with bitter cold from start to finish is unlikely there are some decent charts on these runs, obviously its just eye candy but this chart would give some heavy snow with blizzards for the pennines, similar to december 8th 1990 i would have thought, and this is progged before winter even begins.

[Nimbus Nix]

Cold CFS Run...! (www.weatherweb.net)

[Steve C]

I'll take an interest in this thread (and others I've heard about, such as the winter stratospheric thread) just to see how forecasts turn out and the reasoning behind them and why things do or don't happen. I'm sure it'll be a good learning experience. In terms of what I think will happen, I can't really add anything of value at the moment. I'll leave that to more learned people this year. I don't even have a gut feel.

[Ninman]

I'll take an interest in this thread (and others I've heard about, such as the winter stratospheric thread) just to see how forecasts turn out and the reasoning behind them and why things do or don't happen. I'm sure it'll be a good learning experience. In terms of what I think will happen, I can't really add anything of value at the moment. I'll leave that to more learned people this year. I don't even have a gut feel.

Same here! I keep reading articles/posts on various websites about the reasoning behind why this winter is supposed to be cold/snowy but then others counter argument this, and then models show something different!. An interest in the weather is fairly new to me, so this is a good learning curve no matter how winter turns out and whichever LRF is right.wrong

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Its not like its just Nina like Bartlett driven 1989 type conditions throught the CFS runs anyway, Negative monthly CET values are rare, i have only had 3 in my lifetime i think so to get a month with bitter cold from start to finish is unlikely there are some decent charts on these runs, obviously its just eye candy but this chart would give some heavy snow with blizzards for the pennines, similar to december 8th 1990 i would have thought, and this is progged before winter even begins.

Mild that?

[feb1991blizzard]

Mild that?

This was the chart i originally posted but because the 18z came out it must have automatically overriden it.

[Mountain Snow]

Mild that?

Its changed since, was showing a decent northeasterly if a remember correctly.

I've no idea what this winter will bring, certainly looks like plenty of signs pointing to a colder than average one.

I have a feeling its going to be an absolute stonker but then I get that feeling every year!

[feb1991blizzard]

Its changed since, was showing a decent northeasterly if a remember correctly.

I've no idea what this winter will bring, certainly looks like plenty of signs pointing to a colder than average one.

I have a feeling its going to be an absolute stonker but then I get that feeling every year!

Certainly better than the feeling i used to get between about 1989 and 2008 where i used to think it was going to be an absolute stinker!!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

This was the chart i originally posted but because the 18z came out it must have automatically overriden it.

Gosh that is a good one, snowfest for all, but really dont know why these fantasy charts are available,

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

Its changed since, was showing a decent northeasterly if a remember correctly.

I've no idea what this winter will bring, certainly looks like plenty of signs pointing to a colder than average one.

I have a feeling its going to be an absolute stonker but then I get that feeling every year!

I am feeling quite confident that we will get a cold winter and a long one. But whether there will be snow or not is a different mater. It all depends on all the different factors.

[Radiating Dendrite]

To be fair, the majority can feel a cold winter coming every year at this time of year lol. I think it is called wishful thinking

I must admit, I am happy to indulge in this thinking though! I just want to see how Steve M would react if we get to +24 on the models with -18 uppers about to explode into the SE with a developing shortwave in the flow!

I think his eyeballs would melt!

[Cloud 10]

Enjoying this thread at the moment and nice to see some new members joining the site.

There does seem to be a lot of optimism about the upcoming winter,although

i haven't seen any nick sussex posts yet.

[Radiating Dendrite]

I am sure he will soon make an appearance. Maybe he has not awoken from Summer hibernation yet!

One of the best model thread experts in my opinion!

[Suburban Streamer]

I just want to see how Steve M would react if we get to +24 on the models with -18 uppers about to explode into the SE with a developing shortwave in the flow!

I think his eyeballs would melt!

He wouldn't be the only one!

[Bethany C]

I agree with Cloud 10, it is really nice to see newbies on the site. I myself, have been dragged back to the bipolar nature of weather watching as I have noticed the evenings of the last few weeks have become a bit chilly! This discussion makes for some interesting reading.

[SnowObsessor90]

Looking back at some of the older threads from last year it seemed to be at some point in October when people started to become more pessimistic because of the not so favorable background signals that were just starting to come into focus.

Hopefully won't be the case this time round though.

[feb1991blizzard]

Gosh that is a good one, snowfest for all, but really dont know why these fantasy charts are available,

Yes, i dont know why NCEP don't concentrate more on grid length and code and trying to improve its output and have less runs, surely one or 2 runs a week would suffice with a 9 month seasonal model, that way higher resolution and more calculations would be possible as it would not matter how long each run takes, that said i doubt anyone who writes code for these seasonal models professes to be able to achieve a decent strike rate for areas of the world such as ours, i believe this model is very good at predicting ENSO episodes, MJO phases etc.

[Met4Cast]

Wow - This thread really has exploded into life in the last couple of days, 23 pages and we're still only in September! I've been giving a look over all the models, drivers etc.. over the last few days as I start to write my first winter thoughts and I'd really have to agree what Steve Murr said in his huge post a few pages back.

The atmosphere really is primed to give us a cold winter this year, -QBO, ideal SST, Weak/Neutral ENSO, cold PDO, Low Solar Activity etc.. my only worry at the moment is with the stratosphere, if that doesn't play ball then we could end up chasing cold spells for months before finally getting one later in the winter like last year.

Having said that, a -QBO does increase the chances of SSW so I think even if we do end up with a fairly cold Stat there could be some suitable warming periods giving us cold spells, of course, we'll have to wait until October to be able to get any sort of idea about this.

There's definitely been a change in our weather patterns over the last couple of years, rubbish summers, cold winters (for the most part) whilst this change might not be Global with temperatures still on the up, something has definitely changed for our part of the world.

[Skyraker]

Sorry if i'm off topic.. but what is this SACRA ?

[Cloud 10]

Sorry if i'm off topic.. but what is this SACRA ?

Snow And Cold Rampers Association