Winter 2012 / 2013

[Aaron]

i do largely agree with u. However, this time last year there really wasnt the level of positivity that is currently occuring. there were lots of conflicting signals. this year the weak el nino, and forecasted -qbo, low solar activity, sea ice extent etc etc are all pointing in one direction.

Of course its way too early and i'm trying very hard not to get excited but i gotta admit i'm very much encourgaed despite it being so early in Autumn.

if i just jinxed the whole of winter i'm sorry!!

If this winter turns out mild you'll never hear the end of it - you will be permanently banned form this forum.

[Gavin P]

That forecast from Accuweather definetly looks "El Nino" driven, but I would urge caution on this because as I explain in my video El Nino just doesn't see to be getting going this year.

Theres still time for it to develop, but if it carries on as it is we'll be looking at an ENSO neutral winter most likely.

[chiffer]

The only thing I'll be keeping a eye on for a while is that jetstream.

[Weather-history]

Accuweather have now issued there winter forecast for the US

I'm trying to figure how you can have a zone of below normal snowfall and above average temperatures over an area of above normal snowfall?

Edited September 17, 2012 by Weather-history

[Suburban Streamer]

I'm trying to figure how you can have a zone of below normal snowfall and above average temperatures over an area of above normal snowfall?

If u look at the pressure chart that went with the forecast it looks like perhaps they think the area u mention will be too close to the high pressure to allow for that much snow. At the same time locking in the cold snowier weather further south.

I'm sure someone more knowledgeable will correct me!

Edited September 17, 2012 by Suburban Streamer

[Isolated Frost]

Only on netweather can you have 15 pages of a winter thread in 5 mid-September days!

[feb1991blizzard]

That forecast from Accuweather definetly looks "El Nino" driven, but I would urge caution on this because as I explain in my video El Nino just doesn't see to be getting going this year.

Theres still time for it to develop, but if it carries on as it is we'll be looking at an ENSO neutral winter most likely.

Is ENSO neutral the best state for Northern blocking in wintertime, it certainly is from the research i did on the NOAA compositing site last winter,

admittedly not a huge amount of research or massively scientific though, please tell me there is no way we could have another Nina winter.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Lots of cold signals being mentioned.

What opposite signals are there also currently in play which could point towards a milder winter?

UK?

BFTP

[johnholmes]

grief-15 pages in less than a week about something that even the most expert has no real idea about-the latest model outputs but come on folks, by all means enjoy the build up, but for gawds sake look at the credit rating of anything so far produced. By that I mean search back over the last 5 winters and see how many times anyone, centre or individual got it right.

Show me one with it correct 4 times out of 5 and you/they could be on to something.

But enjoy it-it makes for entertaining reading!

Edited September 17, 2012 by johnholmes

[stewfox]

UK?

BFTP

Does seem to be a big factor as well as LOW LYING, COASTAL seem to have an effect as well.

[gsteruk]

as far as i know everyone on this thread is participating for kicks, noones trying to take it seriously, quite the opposite. whats the harm if people enjoy it? noones forced to read or participate if the find the thread particularly annoying or unhelpful are they? dont really understand why people get so wound up i honestly dont

[feb1991blizzard]

Belting first half of November on this CFS run.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1080&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&run=0

[cheeky_monkey]

I'm trying to figure how you can have a zone of below normal snowfall and above average temperatures over an area of above normal snowfall?

i would suggest a WSW component that brings alot snow across the central Rockies...Colorado etc..leading to drying and warming winds to the lee of the mountains ie across the midwest and border states leading to higher temperatures and less snow in those areas.

[Barry12]

Belting first half of November on this CFS run.

http://www.meteociel...=0&mode=0&run=0

Only 6 weeks away aswell!

[feb1991blizzard]

Only 6 weeks away aswell!

Yep, late October 2008 springs to mind, from memory a similar setup, a full on cold spell showing if you fast forward to december with a Nice HP to the North east, November / December 2010 anyone ???

Your on the Daily Mail Winter xxxx bad like xxxx thread are you not Barry?

Edited September 17, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Aaron]

I was on that thread too.. totally ridiculous and insane amounts of ramping. Jolly good fun though!

Edited September 17, 2012 by Aaron

[lorenzo]

I know the CFS out performs all the other global models at the 6 week range.. It's a dead cert. Nailded on to varify.

Verification at +1008 hours = 84%.

[feb1991blizzard]

I was on that thread too.. totally ridiculous and insane amounts of ramping. Jolly good fun though!

Problem with that thread is there is too much bickering, i like the liberal approach to moderation but there is no need for some of the personal abuse thats on there, the main problem though is that you cant post after 7 0clock at night can you, so been as the ECM 12, ECM ens, GFS 18z and 2230 fax chart are still to come then you really need to be able to post, i suppose weather is not one of the main concerns of the DM though, i suppose the political debate is king over there.

[AWD]

Belting first half of November on this CFS run.

http://www.meteociel...=0&mode=0&run=0

That run is very "a la 2010". Great finish to Autumn and start to winter with very cold weather and some snowfall, but a big bust in January& February.

[SnowObsessor90]

I was on that thread too.. totally ridiculous and insane amounts of ramping. Jolly good fun though!

Not to mention baiting from certain posters last winter on there who I won't name...

[Snowstorm1]

This thread already picking up love it! Winters Coming....

[Dorsetbred]

Not to mention baiting from certain posters last winter on there who I won't name...

Oh go on "Name & shame" a few

[Suburban Streamer]

i suppose weather is not one of the main concerns of the DM though

True....and neither is the news

[feb1991blizzard]

True....and neither is the news

Still the best tabloid though, not quite as sensationalist as the red tops but still with strong views on important matters and less emphasis on celebraties, or at least for the first 10 pages anyway.

[MP-R]

Whereabouts in Spain are you going? If there's a sinking Scandinavian High you could be in business.

I'm going to be in Australia so definitely no snow for me. At least I'll get to experience a proper summer though (I've almost forgotten what that feels like).

Fair enough.

I'll be in Madrid. What are the chances though? Sure, Madrid is cold at night during the winter but apparently it takes something exceptional to get snow there.