South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - September 15th 2012>

[Snowangel-MK]

Amber Warning of Rain for London & South East England :

Oxfordshire, West Berkshire & Hampshire

valid from 0700 Mon 24 Sep to 1600 Mon 24 Sep

Amber Warning of Wind for London & South East England :

Kent, East Sussex, West Sussex, Medway & Brighton and Hove

valid from 1000 Mon 24 Sep to 1600 Mon 24 Sep

Issued at: 0438 on Mon 24 Sep 2012

Valid from: 0700 on Mon 24 Sep 2012

Valid to: 1600 on Mon 24 Sep 2012

Periods of heavy rain, including some torrential downpours, are likely to occur across east Wales, the West Midlands, West Country and into central southern England, gradually clearing northwards during the day. The public should be prepared for an increased risk of both surface water and river flooding during this period.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/?regionName=se&from=rss&sn=B685995D-DC72-4BF5-E645-F6BC040AA09B_1_SE

[bobbydog]

incoming!

Issued at: 0637 on Mon 24 Sep 2012

Valid from: 1000 on Mon 24 Sep 2012

Valid to: 1600 on Mon 24 Sep 2012

A band of heavy rain will move northeast across southeast England later this morning, followed by a rapid increase in the wind as it becomes a westerly. Gusts of 50-60 mph are likely inland with a risk of 65-70 mph gusts along exposed coasts. The public should be prepared for the risk of disruption, particularly to travel.

[saint]

It has become quite foggy here in the past half an hour, which was certainly unexpected!

[Norfolk Sheep]

Relatively quiet here, if a little miserable - grey and drizzly with very little breeze.

[Gowon]

incoming!

Issued at: 0637 on Mon 24 Sep 2012

Valid from: 1000 on Mon 24 Sep 2012

Valid to: 1600 on Mon 24 Sep 2012

A band of heavy rain will move northeast across southeast England later this morning, followed by a rapid increase in the wind as it becomes a westerly. Gusts of 50-60 mph are likely inland with a risk of 65-70 mph gusts along exposed coasts. The public should be prepared for the risk of disruption, particularly to travel.

Good, hopefully i can get to school and back before it arrives.

Edited September 24, 2012 by Seselwa

[NO LONGER POSTING]

incoming!

Issued at: 0637 on Mon 24 Sep 2012

Valid from: 1000 on Mon 24 Sep 2012

Valid to: 1600 on Mon 24 Sep 2012

A band of heavy rain will move northeast across southeast England later this morning, followed by a rapid increase in the wind as it becomes a westerly. Gusts of 50-60 mph are likely inland with a risk of 65-70 mph gusts along exposed coasts. The public should be prepared for the risk of disruption, particularly to travel.

50-60mph inland..Thats a very strong wind..

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Where is the low set to pivot? when it does that, that area is going to see a heck of a lot of rain

[bobbydog]

50-60mph inland..Thats a very strong wind..

expect a few trees down today!

[bobbydog]

Where is the low set to pivot? when it does that, that area is going to see a heck of a lot of rain

its not really, its just going to wander around the country dumping rain everywhere

[BB1979]

Expected to leave my house to a tempest this morning. Instead all was calm, some moisture in the air, a muggy feel, light breeze and warmer than I was expecting.

Iv'e never been in the eye of a storm before. Guess this is as close as it gets. Bring on the beast .....

[NO LONGER POSTING]

expect a few trees down today!

BBC news said a gust of 30MPH brought down a branch in London yesterday and killed a woman

[Coast]

50-60mph inland..Thats a very strong wind..

Could be worse for coastal dwellers.

Morning all!

Grey and grim here but a brief let up in the rain before we are attacked by high winds today. Still lots of rain to come to. Who said the weather in this country is boring?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

max gust guess time?

Im going for 72MPH Dover port..

[Coast]

61 mph, Herne Bay

Ah well, the quiet is over. Rain has started pouring down again!

[Keraunic]

Mornin each. Very dull and sort of drizzly here but warmer than yesterday. Will EA get any of this wind do you think?

Have a good day everyone and stay safe. â˜â˜â˜â˜â˜

[Soaring Hawk]

Barely light at 6.30 when dratted alarm went off. Foggy and very still. Fog? Rain all day yesterday with it becoming very heavy around 8.00pm. Was a bit breezy but it is hard to judge what is regarded as windy in this part of the world, having lived in the West of Scotland....

Now almost darker than 2 hours ago, rain has started and wind just beginning to pick up.

[Coast]

Now almost darker than 2 hours ago, rain has started and wind just beginning to pick up.

Morning SH!!!

Best you get back to bed, I'm permanently in the dark anyway! Just going to repost ESTOFEX's latest, very interesting comments and analysis of the low pressure storm:

Multiple structural changes occurred and will occur with the consolidating depression, which moves off the Bay of Biscay to the north/northeast. After initiated by a southbound moving upper low with a distinct tropopause fold during the overnight hours of the 21st to the 22nd, roughly 36h of a slightly less barocline atmosphere allowed for some low-end core modification, although negligible (and still classified as a true cold core low). As of writing (23rd), a plume of slightly modified tropical air (modified due to onshore trajectories into the depression's center), encircled most of the center and assisted in disorganized but slightly deeper convection with no distinct banding present. However this pushed the depression near the shallow warm core structure on available phase diagrams. During the afternoon hours of the 23rd however, an approaching frontal boundary from the NW marked the beginning of another round of enhanced baroclinity with models showing the evolution of a distinct tropopause fold over Ireland and UK during the forecast period, bending into the system. This increase of baroclinity results in a rapid deepening phase, which starts around the beginning of my forecast period and offers a central pressure drop of at least 10 K in probably less than 24 h while crossing UK from the SW with a strong turn to the NW during the night.

This results in a quite complex frontal and thermal structure of that low, as the majority of the models now propose some type of thermodynamic core modification. Current thinking is that a moderate warm-core seclusion takes place during the forecast although described history of that depression may offer a better defined LL warm core structure compared to truley extratropical cases. Latest ASCAT scans reveal a quite symmetric near surface wind field with uncontaminated 30-40 kt winds along the W/S and SE-ern fringes (much less defined along the NE quadrant) and this well defined wind field in the lower troposphere remains intact during much of the forecast period.

To complicate that scenario once more, ongoing baroclinic transformation will result in more typical vertical wind field distribution of the extra tropics along the southern fringe, as a strong mid/high-level jet moves in from the west and crosses N-France and Benelux during the night. Along the northern fringe of the depression however (e.g. N-UK and Scotland), no modification is expected until 06Z due to the dominant and still westward pointing wrap-around occlusion, which keeps the shallow warm core intact.

... N-UK and Scotland ...

Westward wrapping occlusion shifts only slowly to the north during the forecast period. Prolonged period of lift/forcing/influx of very moist air and slow storm motion indicate a high probability for heavy rain. Some MUCAPE is forecast, so we do not want to exclude a sporadic thunderstorm event (not reflected on our outlook map).

Beside the rain risk, a gradually intensifying easterly LLJ with 850 hPa winds up to 30 m/s results in severe wind gusts over Scotland (especially at more exposed areas). This risk is not included due to non-existent DMC activity.

During the overnight hours, thunderstorm probabilities increase over the English Channel,the S-North Sea and the N-Bay of Biscay as cold air at mid-levels spreads to the south and east.

[Kent Snow]

A grey dull and rainy start to the day so far. WInd is light currently but will increase later. Temperature 14C.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH EAST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HAAHAHAA

Lol..Wont happen it's England..

[Coast]

THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH EAST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HAAHAHAA

Lol..Wont happen it's England..

It happened yesterday!!! Simple format GFS says Channel coast too!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Winds should start picking up soon

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Very very heavy rain here...Road and patio starting to see the effects.. :/

[EML Network]

Absolutely chucking it down here, the only thing missing is thunder, the winds have started to pick up from out of nowhere...we've had 10 mm already since 9am..bringing the total to 33mm since yesterday, let the fun commence

[Coast]

NW radar has plenty still to come:

[NO LONGER POSTING]

NW radar has plenty still to come:

That is so slow moving...Wind really picking up here...