Southwest And Central Southern England - Regional Discussion

[AWD]

Chilly but sunny start to the day.

[A.J]

just posted in the convective thread, so a quick re-post here....

"Relatives down in Brixham have reported a decent thunderstorm there in the past couple of hours with hail & wet snow....Certainly looked quite lively down there first thing just off the South Devon coast....Looks like most of the convective activity is moving off the coastline SE into the English Channel"

Back here in Wiltshire, it's a lovely start to the day, light winds & sunshine, feeling chilly in what breeze there is

[Gibby]

Hi guys. Sorry I couldn't report on the lovely snowfall we enjoyed around here yesterday. I have to work weekends selling the gear that I make in the week...such is the craft trade. However, I think my little patch just about got the worst of what was going with a good 6-8cm lying around here for a while. There is still some lying around under hedgerows and road banks this morning.

It's a cold and dry start but after some early fog things are brightening quickly. 5.0C currently.

http://www.norton-ra...o.uk/page8.htm

Edited November 5, 2012 by Gibby

[gottolovethisweather]

Gibby, I see that you are lurking, how was things your end, yesterday?

http://forum.netweat...40#entry2397064

Edited November 5, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

First of all may I say how wonderful it was to see some of the scenes down in that part of the world this morning!

GTLTW you bring up an interesting point and one which im afraid I must conflict with the conclusion of.

I wont go into great detail but I feel the shortcomings in the Met Office forecasting still surround their inability to second-guess their own models. We know there are limitations to what they can account for, and for me the two biggest ones have always been convection and evaporative cooling.

Now obviously I don't have access to their full suite (UK4, MOGREPS etc), but based purely upon the NAE last night I issued a forecast elsewhere mentioning the risk of some heavy snowfall particularly to elevation. I will admit it came a little further south that I had expected, but the point is that I produced such a forecast by specifically examining the effect (or lack of effect in this instance) that the very intense precipitation rates shown were having on surface and dew point temperatures, and in this instance it appeared to be very little.

So I do feel in this instance that they do deserve a little bit of a dressing down. What I will say is full credit to Ian who has been mentioning this risk (albeit a low risk) for a few days

Kind Regards

SK

Fair enough SK, you back up your position on this with some factual detail. I just feel many other folk simply do not and thereby jump on the bash the MetO bandwagon.

Anyway, moving on..............

Gibby, I see that you are lurking, how was things your end, yesterday?

http://forum.netweat...40#entry2397064

EDIT: Cheers Gibby, I posted at exact same time.

[fergieweather]

Hi folks, just to reiterate a post I sent on 3 Nov quoting (see below) the UKMO Chief Forecaster; you will note again from this how they anticipated some snow potential and crucially also note how raw NAE was tweaked at Exeter using a technique they regularly employ to give more reliable indication of snow potential by evaporative cooling... so I don't think they were off the mark; the raw NAE is just that - raw - and rarely followed without many tweaks at Ops Centre throughout every day....

 "New (NAE) run doesn’t suggest any snow but tweaking with Wilderspin/ Lumb (method) readily produces some, as also does UKv (which is considered overdone with its 5-10cm locally). Wet snow considered as low to moderate risk on N+W flank (UKV suggests some) but depends critically on ppn intensity and tracking..."

[Nights King]

Hi folks, just to reiterate a post I sent on 3 Nov quoting (see below) the UKMO Chief Forecaster; you will note again from this how they anticipated some snow potential and crucially also note how raw NAE was tweaked at Exeter using a technique they regularly employ to give more reliable indication of snow potential by evaporative cooling... so I don't think they were off the mark; the raw NAE is just that - raw - and rarely followed without many tweaks at Ops Centre throughout every day....

"New (NAE) run doesn’t suggest any snow but tweaking with Wilderspin/ Lumb (method) readily produces some, as also does UKv (which is considered overdone with its 5-10cm locally). Wet snow considered as low to moderate risk on N+W flank (UKV suggests some) but depends critically on ppn intensity and tracking..."

Cheers Ian as ever we appreciate your information which is always very helpful.

Looks like a fairly quiet week of weather in comparison now.

[Somerset Squall]

Actually had some snow here yesterday morning at my very low lying location. Didn't settle but a surprise nonetheless!

Edited November 5, 2012 by Somerset Squall

[Nights King]

Sid the snowman has survived day 2 along with a slight dusting left on grass, shall get a picture up in the morning.

temp 1.5c

[ARTDEMOLE]

Cool bright day today...Very cool tonight and clear..Telescope coming out when the wizzbangs finish...

[Mesoscale]

its really cold out there tonight, first time I wore a hat and gloves!

[Andy Bown]

A Bonfire Night like the 80s when my primary school held displays - clear and frosty :-).

Looking forward to the crisp, bright morning tomorrow and wondering if the Warm Front will bring light rain/drizzle in the afternoon. Many times

when such fronts are spilling down from the WNW we end up with more widespread light rain in Wiltshire than forecast the previous day due to

being downwind of the Bristol Channel and Mendip Hills.

[Nights King]

nice and chilly tonight. -0.4c

[divadee]

A harsh frost here this morning. The hardest of the autumn so far.

[AWD]

Nice air frost here.

Cold but sunny start to the day.

[A.J]

frosty here and icy in places, but a beautiful morning, not a cloud in the sky

[Gibby]

A bright cold and sunny start with a widespread frost currently. Close to 1.0C

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/page8.htm

Incidentally re. Webcam. I now have a night camera in addition to my daytime view. The night cam will be in operation through the hours of darkness and includes several lamp posts for viewing snow in Winter. The url remains the same.

[Nights King]

Sids days are numbered with the warmer air moving in still 2 days cover in november is a good start, roll on winter.

-2.6c over night.

[fromey]

Sids days are numbered with the warmer air moving in still 2 days cover in november is a good start, roll on winter.

-2.6c over night.

Dont worry mate he will back!!! bigger and better.

fromey

[Andy Bown]

So -2.6c on the Mendips and -0.9c in Warminster, what minima did other people record?

And was it your coldest minimum since 18 March like for me?

[fUnKy]

In Plymouth I had my lowest reading (in my short record) of 3.1^c last night. Must of been cold in the moors if it was that low here.

[ARTDEMOLE]

10c. Now.Cloudy...

[Sainsbo]

-0.9C this morning, coldest of the season so far.

[A.J]

It's been pretty damp in dreary this afternoon after a nice morning......and traipsing around Swindon, xmas shopping in the damp & cold made it feel all the more drearier

[A.J]

A quick repost........If, in case you haven't see it elsewhere on the forum, here's Glacier Point's early thoughts on the winter ahead...A technical piece but well worth a look

http://www.netweathe...ghts-2012;sess=