Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2

[jethro]

If one were to create a forecast for the upcoming winter using only cues from nature (Old wives/farmers tales) what would we have to look for?

The ones I know of are;

1 - Laden berry bushes.

2 - More spiders than usual in the house.

3 - Field mice moving in early.

4 - Early bird migration.

Anyone know of any others?

The laden berries thing is specific to Rowan trees, or Dogberry which is the old English name for it.

There are lots of weather lore sayings here, specific for snow and winter:

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/2011/01/10/snow-lore-101/

And: http://www.naturealmanac.com/archive/predicting_winter/predicting_winter.html

Alternatively, there was a thread here which has lots more in it:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71221-predicting-winter-weather-lore/

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

I'd happily settle for a snow filled winter over a cold one, snow is after all the only really interesting form of winter weather, unless you get un-seasonally heavy rains or Thunderstorms. If we got 10 snow events that included 2 or 3 really gigantic falls, but the winter was deemed average in terms of temperature - I'd be more than happy.

I'd settle for a winter full of hoarfrost if we didn't get much in the way of snow - not so disruptive or as much fun, but every bit as beautiful

[jethro]

How dare you. Wishing gave Gepeto a REAL BOY!!!

I still haven't found Johnny Depp in my Christmas stocking, either wishing doesn't work or Santa's deaf...

[Ruzzi]

With regards to having a winter like 62/63. I agree that initially a lot of the country would come to a standstill, but after a week or so it would become the norm and people would begin to deal with it much better. For example in 2009/2010 we had snow on the ground for 4 and a half weeks with a layer of about 2-3 inches of solid ice underneath the snow. The depth of the snow reached 2 feet at times where I stay but yet after the first week, it became nothing out of the ordinary and became an annoyance rather than a hinderance. I remember walking home at 4am on new year's day, waist deep in snow on the pavements and temperatures of -13, and yet it felt normal by that point.

Also as someone mentioned earlier, It certainly does bring out the community spirit as everyone helps each other soldier on and in that sense, it could only be a good thing. Ofcourse it would be an economic struggle and in terms of health implications and deaths caused by the weather, I would wish that on no-one..... however maybe we do need a winter like "the good old days" just to prove to modern society what is actually possible and then maybe after that when we get a good-going (not necessarily severe) winter, we would generally cope so much better than we currently do when there's a 3 day long "big chill" with monster falls of "2 inches of snow"

On a final note, I am only 20 years old and mean no disrespect to those on here who experienced struggle and hardship through that infamous winter. I can only imagine what it must have been like....... but who knows, the signs are good at the moment, maybe we're all about to find out!

[Gavin Hannah]

<= it's far too early for me to be looking like this lol, but this thread is cranking up the anticipation.

[Hotspur62]

Have read about epic winter of 63 although wasn't born then so can't talk first hand.I was born in 1971 and remember well that through 70s and 80s we had regular snowfalls but snow became a rareity down here in Kent from early 90s until about 2004.Then we seem to have got more regular snowfalls again and 3 out of last 4 have been colder than average.I think things are cyclical and just what i have read over last couple of years i think we are probably(although not definetly) heading towards winters not disimilar to those we had in 60s and 70s in the UK.I just wish are summers would improve a bit as well as last good one was 2006!!.

[jethro]

Even grumpy old woman here could get excited about this.....2 mins 9 secs....all I can say is WOW!!!!

Also about the epic winter of '63

http://www.paraffinwinter.org.uk/63winter.html

http://www.thamesweb.co.uk/windsor/windsorhistory/freeze63.html

[Met4Cast]

I thought this might be of some interest to you on here.

Looking at the Image below I have put a little red dot to years that look very similar to this one in terms of the El Nino / La Nina pattern, both in terms of going into El Nino like conditions after a double dip La Nina, all of those years had harsh winters, and in fact were looking almost exactly the same as we were heading into Dec 2010 :-)

Could History be about to repeat itself ??

I remember a few years ago Joe laminate floori said that after a double dip La Nina severe cold winters hit the US after we emerged from it, he showed historic winters which followed on from the double dip which were cold, he was talking more for the USA but if we see a cold severe winter then he predicted this would happen back in 2010, it's definitely going to be interesting thats for sure!

we are really not that much more geared up than the UK..there is the general chaos for a week or so when the snow first starts to fly thereafter it becomes the norm and people and transport just get on with it..i think you are doing the great British public a disservice.

I have to agree - I think the 20 odd years of mild winters we've seen in the UK have really started to make people believe that we can't handle the snow, maybe we can't, things do turn to chaos but I think after the first couple of weeks we'd easily slip into a routine where gritters will grit, snow ploughs plow, communities get together to clear the roads of snowfall blah blah blah, I think a lot of people on here are underestimating the British people.

Whilst I highly doubt we're about to see a 3 month freeze, if it did happen I think we'd all quite happily take a couple of zonal winters

[Gowon]

<= it's far too early for me to be looking like this lol, but this thread is cranking up the anticipation.

I'm totally with you, but lets try and enjoy the changes autumn brings first...

[Met4Cast]

Also about the epic winter of '63

http://www.paraffinw...k/63winter.html

http://www.thamesweb...y/freeze63.html

Two of the most detailed covers I've ever read about that winter, I've just spent the last 45 minutes reading through both and matching the events up with the historic weather charts.. sad perhaps, but having parents who weren't even born back then I find it fascinating!

[Gavin Hannah]

This is my local river two years ago, only further down from where I live and closer to the coast. About 3 miles inland. This also happened the year before in '09.

Will it be a repeat this year? I do hope so.....

Edited September 25, 2012 by IBringTheHammer

[BornFromTheVoid]

So after looking at how the PDO may influence our winters, today I’m going to look at the influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

ENSO is characterised by periodic changes in the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific. El Nino conditions are said to be present when the SSTs are anomalously high, as occurred in 1998 one of the warmest years on record (depending on the source, the warmest). La Nina represents the opposite, anomalously low SSTs, which have been more common and strong since the turn of the century.

ENSO variations can affect weather across the globe and its oscillations are among the primary divers in inter-annual global temperature variation.

There is loads of info on the net about how ENSO influences weather across the world. A simple google search will find all you need, so I won’t say too much about it, but as is nearly always the case, it’s changes in the jet stream from tropical convection variations that fuels most of ENSOs weather effects.

Here are a few links to get you started

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/

http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/

http://kids.earth.na...nino/intro.html

http://en.wikipedia...._Oscillation

For the correlations with the winter CET, I used the Multi-variate Enso Index (MEI) which you can find more information on here http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

Each El Nino and La Nina is different from those that preceded it, with different strengths of anomalies and slightly different locations, all having slightly different effects on the atmosphere. The simple nature of this analysis doesn't really take that into account, and like the last PDO analysis, shouldn't be taken too seriously!

Anywho, lets get to it!

First off, here are graphs of the Annual MEI values and the de-trended winter CET.

MEI

Detrended Winter CET

I tried multipe variations with the MEI values for correlating with the winter CET, such as annual MEI, winter MEI and July-December MEI. All of these yielded low +ve correlations (all around ~0.1). This would indicate a very low influence, but with a slightly better chance at a below average winter with La Nina.

I then tried the same correlations, only this time I divided all the -ve MEI values by -1, to give me just +ve values so I could work out if the strength of the ENSO phase is more important than whether it's -ve or +ve.

Doing this improved the correlations by quite a bit!

The annual MEI value correlation (just looking at the strength and not the phase) is +0.27

The winter MEI correlation is +0.24

The July to December mean MEI correlation is +0.28

All this suggests that the strength of the MEI/ENSO values is more important than what phase it's in. So whether we have El NIno or La Nina, once it's weak, or even better, neutral, our chances of a below average winter are somewhat improved!

Here's a graph of the de-trended Winter CET and the July-Dec mean MEI value (all converted to +ve values)

Now, to get an idea of how the low to neutral ENSO phase effects the weather patterns over the northern hemisphere and particularly the North Atlantic region, I created a composite December-February, 500hPa geopotential height anomaly chart (which basically shows the upper level pressure patterns, and where high and low pressure are more likely to form at the surface) using the 20 lowest July-December mean MEI/ENSO values.

On the chart above, there is a very clear tendency for stronger heights over Greenland and to the north in general (tendency for a Greeny high and northern blocking). There is also a clear signal for lower heights over Europe and extending across to the British Isles, so increased likelihood of easterlies.

What about the jet stream?

The chart above shows a clear negative upper zonal wind anomaly right across the north of the British Isles and up into Scandinavia, with a clear positive anomaly going through Iberia and into the Mediterranean. This is a clear signal for a southerly tracking jet-stream once more.

So, in conclusion, it appears that once ENSO is weak, things look best for a below average winter.

So with the latest ENSO forecast suggesting neutral conditions for the remainder of the year, and with us currently in a -ve PDO phase, things are looking quite positive so far. Plenty more to consider though!

[January Snowstorm]

Thanks for that bftv, very informative.

I see we share something greater than life itself, being from Cork boy!

[Gavin Hannah]

Brilliant report BFTV.

[snowstorm445]

Thanks for that bftv, very informative.

I see we share something greater than life itself, being from Cork boy!

[UV-RAY]

So after looking at how the PDO may influence our winters, today I’m going to look at the influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

ENSO is characterised by periodic changes in the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific. El Nino conditions are said to be present when the SSTs are anomalously high, as occurred in 1998 one of the warmest years on record (depending on the source, the warmest). La Nina represents the opposite, anomalously low SSTs, which have been more common and strong since the turn of the century.

ENSO variations can affect weather across the globe and its oscillations are among the primary divers in inter-annual global temperature variation.

There is loads of info on the net about how ENSO influences weather across the world. A simple google search will find all you need, so I won’t say too much about it, but as is nearly always the case, it’s changes in the jet stream from tropical convection variations that fuels most of ENSOs weather effects.

Here are a few links to get you started

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/

http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/

http://kids.earth.na...nino/intro.html

http://en.wikipedia...._Oscillation

For the correlations with the winter CET, I used the Multi-variate Enso Index (MEI) which you can find more information on here http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

Each El Nino and La Nina is different from those that preceded it, with different strengths of anomalies and slightly different locations, all having slightly different effects on the atmosphere. The simple nature of this analysis doesn't really take that into account, and like the last PDO analysis, shouldn't be taken too seriously!

Anywho, lets get to it!

First off, here are graphs of the Annual MEI values and the de-trended winter CET.

MEI

Detrended Winter CET

I tried multipe variations with the MEI values for correlating with the winter CET, such as annual MEI, winter MEI and July-December MEI. All of these yielded low +ve correlations (all around ~0.1). This would indicate a very low influence, but with a slightly better chance at a below average winter with La Nina.

I then tried the same correlations, only this time I divided all the -ve MEI values by -1, to give me just +ve values so I could work out if the strength of the ENSO phase is more important than whether it's -ve or +ve.

Doing this improved the correlations by quite a bit!

The annual MEI value correlation (just looking at the strength and not the phase) is +0.27

The winter MEI correlation is +0.24

The July to December mean MEI correlation is +0.28

All this suggests that the strength of the MEI/ENSO values is more important than what phase it's in. So whether we have El NIno or La Nina, once it's weak, or even better, neutral, our chances of a below average winter are somewhat improved!

Here's a graph of the de-trended Winter CET and the July-Dec mean MEI value (all converted to +ve values)

Now, to get an idea of how the low to neutral ENSO phase effects the weather patterns over the northern hemisphere and particularly the North Atlantic region, I created a composite December-February, 500hPa geopotential height anomaly chart (which basically shows the upper level pressure patterns, and where high and low pressure are more likely to form at the surface) using the 20 lowest July-December mean MEI/ENSO values.

On the chart above, there is a very clear tendency for stronger heights over Greenland and to the north in general (tendency for a Greeny high and northern blocking). There is also a clear signal for lower heights over Europe and extending across to the British Isles, so increased likelihood of easterlies.

What about the jet stream?

The chart above shows a clear negative upper zonal wind anomaly right across the north of the British Isles and up into Scandinavia, with a clear positive anomaly going through Iberia and into the Mediterranean. This is a clear signal for a southerly tracking jet-stream once more.

So, in conclusion, it appears that once ENSO is weak, things look best for a below average winter.

So with the latest ENSO forecast suggesting neutral conditions for the remainder of the year, and with us currently in a -ve PDO phase, things are looking quite positive so far. Plenty more to consider though!

Just as I suspected BTHV, neutral ENSO = More chance of a cold blocked winter. You've far too much time on your hands by the way.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Thanks folks!.

Yep Seven, last week free before I start my masters and I've injured myself again so I'm stuck inside on the couch most of the day Might as well learn something while I'm here!

[syed2878]

though it would be hard i would love to experiance a winter like 47 or 63 just to get the fiel.

[stewfox]

25th September 1885 snow fell across high ground in London

[chionomaniac]

Thanks folks!.

Yep Seven, last week free before I start my masters and I've injured myself again so I'm stuck inside on the couch most of the day Might as well learn something while I'm here!

Interestingly enough BFTV, I read a paper this summer that suggested that we are more likely to get a SSW during an ENSO year, whether that be an El Nino or La NIna.

However, I am coming to the realisation that SSW's are more hit and miss and that we would rather see a period of warm strat temps rather than one off major warmings. A case of better not have the vortex at full pelt and having to slow it down , but rather that it never reaches full power in the first place.

[Nights King]

25th September 1885 snow fell across high ground in London

Would that even be possible now though with the heat island effect that london has?

[Met4Cast]

Great post BFTV!

What happened in 62/63 to keep such bitterly cold conditions across the UK for so long? I know there were several warmer periods within the cold but they were relatively short lived

[bobbydog]

Great post BFTV!

What happened in 62/63 to keep such bitterly cold conditions across the UK for so long? I know there were several warmer periods within the cold but they were relatively short lived

i'm not sure- i could have had a simple explanation for you but my ex-mrs was born ten years later.......!!!

[johnholmes]

BFTV

many thanks for all that work. This kind of work is just what I hope others may try. Eventually, no idea how long, someone or some centre, will get enough data that fits to be able to give a reasonable idea of the winter season well before it starts. Maybe also a similar prediction will become something for the other seasons.

[summer blizzard]

Blast, can you do one on the QBO and then also overlay that with the MEI.

My rather limited research indicates that a strong El Nino/+QBO combination is possibly the worst thing imaginable, whilst a El Nino/-QBO (winter 2010) is essentially the best though rare.