Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2

[legritter]

having worked a paper round with my mate back in 1963 i can remember taking the wrong step and getting up to my kneck in snow .having researched cold winters like 63 and 47 i would like to bring to your attention the winter of 1939/1940 , a severe january ,also 40/41 a cold spell and 41/42 not that severe but europe suffered especially eastern europe and russia , germany s war machine suffered badly on the eastern front and towards russia ,my best snow event ,feb 18th 1978 whilst travelling down to devon ,white hell cheers

[johnholmes]

we are really not that much more geared up than the UK..there is the general chaos for a week or so when the snow first starts to fly thereafter it becomes the norm and people and transport just get on with it..i think you are doing the great British public a disservice.

not at all, I tried to make the point about heating our houses is totally different, our food and general way of living is also totally dependent on roads being usable 24x7. Villages let alone towns manufactured their own gas from the local colliery which supplied the coke and coal, farmers supplied probably 90% of the foodstuffs needed and so the list goes on.

I genuinely believe the country would struggle if any winter repeated 1962-63 or 1947.

I myself would certainly be totally fed up with it after 2-3 weeks, Nov-Dec 2010 was more than enough in severity and length thanks

[Panayiotis]

If one were to create a forecast for the upcoming winter using only cues from nature (Old wives/farmers tales) what would we have to look for?

The ones I know of are;

1 - Laden berry bushes.

2 - More spiders than usual in the house.

3 - Field mice moving in early.

4 - Early bird migration.

Anyone know of any others?

1.Lots of laden berry bushes around(dont know if this was the case last year)

2.Killed most of them

3.-

4.Seen geese flying south yesterday! (I dont know if they do this every year at this time)

[Methuselah]

I was 16 in 1963 and I have no great desire to live through another winter lasting over 2 months, especially as I now pay the heating bills! I remember the relief on looking out the bedroom window one day in March and, apart from the fact I didn't have to scrape the ice off to see, I could see patches of green and brown. Made a nice change from weeks of everything being black and white.

And if you think 8 weeks of icy weather guarantees lots of snow think again, during the whole period the snow in our back garden was less than 4 inches deep, and much of the time less than that.

I was 6, Peter...And, despite all the excitement, post Boxing-Day, and that whopper of a blizzard (sometime around New Year) my best memory of the winter is the same one you have; and waking-up to smell things that, for umpteen weeks', had been buried under a carpet of highly sulphurous frozen snow!

[Eskimo]

Part of me thinks that would be amazing, the other part of me thinks, lawd I hope not, I'd be bankrupt. The prospect of 3 months intense cold and deep snow doesn't provide a lot of joy when you're a self-employed gardener.

I guess wishing never changed anything though, what will be will be, we'll just have to deal with it, mild or cold.

Could swap your proffesion temporarily from gardening to snow sweeper?

[lightningst]

Normal cold or Epic cold?

epic cold

[garbagebags]

I can't say I would wish for a 62/63 or 47. But... If someone said to me... Well it's that or same as last year I'm sorry but I would go for the cold and snow. Yes it would be difficult but at least it would be interesting. Us bits shine brightest in times of difficulty and maybe it's just what this country needs? I digress. But anything would be better than mild and perpetual rain.

[Jimmyh]

I was thinking the very same regarding Nina conditions appearing around Spring, nino conditions just don't look like getting going whatsoever this Autumn/Winter and I would think that by December ENSO will be treading Neutral.

and to the untrained eye what exactly does this mean for the winter period??

[Eskimo]

As terrible as it may sound, I also think that a harsh winter may be what we all need. Something to shake this country up, something is beginning to get stale. During the '63 winter, everyone came together to help one another, it seems all that has been lost, society is becoming increasingly selfish but I'm wandering off the subject.

Edited September 25, 2012 by Perfect Storm

[UV-RAY]

and to the untrained eye what exactly does this mean for the winter period??

Just another piece of the jigsaw I'm afraid, neutral ENSO conditions would be more favourable for cold weather in Western Europe, but there are far too many other variables that come into play also. For example the winter of 1947 was a el-nino winter and look what happened there.

[garbagebags]

This may sound a bit obvious but...

Surely if the birds are flying south earlier than usual this would indicate an EARLY winter rather than a harsh winter?

I mean....why would they give a damn about heading south early if its going to be harsh November-March? They would be long gone by then anyway...

[AWD]

If I'm reading things right, both a El Niño & La Niña winter can deliver cold spells with the right sypnotics.

Does it really matter if we have a Niño or Nina winter then?

[BornFromTheVoid]

If I'm reading things right, both a El Niño & La Niña winter can deliver cold spells with the right sypnotics.

Does it really matter if we have a Niño or Nina winter then?

I'll be posting up a little correlation work on ENSO and CET winters this evening, which may help answer that!

[AWD]

I'll be posting up a little correlation work on ENSO and CET winters this evening, which may help answer that!

Will keep my eyes peeled for that then thanks.

[UV-RAY]

If I'm reading things right, both a El Niño & La Niña winter can deliver cold spells with the right sypnotics.

Does it really matter if we have a Niño or Nina winter then?

Generally speaking we don't want to see nina conditions not if it's cold weather in the UK you want to see. There haven't been too many cold winters with nina in place, as I'm sure BFTV graph will indicate later.

[AWD]

Generally speaking we don't want to see nina conditions not if it's cold weather in the UK you want to see. There haven't been too many cold winters with nina in place, as I'm sure BFTV graph will indicate later.

But there have still been a handful of cold nina winters?

Whilst a niño winter is favoured for cold, under the right sypnotics, a nina winter can still deliver, it's just more puzzle pieces need to fall into place for it to do so!

Just given myself a headache now! Lol.

[bobbydog]

If I'm reading things right, both a El Niño & La Niña winter can deliver cold spells with the right sypnotics.

Does it really matter if we have a Niño or Nina winter then?

not really, but as far as i'm aware, a neutral ENSO increases the chances of a colder winter but ONLY with all the other factors in place. looking at it now-

we are heading towards neutral ENSO, we have a strongly negative PDO, hight SST anomalies in the Arctic with less sea ice (apparently increases snow cover in europe) as G.P. said general SST anomalies hint at low pressure across europe which possibly points towards a negative NAO, the QBO (again as G.P. said) is hinting at a weaker more disrupted vortex this winter (greater chance of cold incursions)

in summary (although there are many other factors to consider and BFTV is doing a great job in trying to find correlations to all these factors)) as of now, all the main pointers are towards a colder winter....

[Methuselah]

If I'm reading things right, both a El Niño & La Niña winter can deliver cold spells with the right sypnotics.

Does it really matter if we have a Niño or Nina winter then?

Aye. Not wanting to sound too sceptical, but aren't the weather records full of cold winters that occurred during both El Nino and La Nina years?

[PolarWarsaw]

I'd happily settle for a snow filled winter over a cold one, snow is after all the only really interesting form of winter weather, unless you get un-seasonally heavy rains or Thunderstorms. If we got 10 snow events that included 2 or 3 really gigantic falls, but the winter was deemed average in terms of temperature - I'd be more than happy.

[Granite]

It seems to me that the effect of ENSO for winters is not so strong here in Europe. After all, we have had cold and harsh winters here regardless the state of ENSO. What matters here more is NAO and AO. NAO is really negative at the moment, and if it continues that way, we will surely have a cold start to winter. And it's only 3-4 weeks away, at least here in Finland.

[syed2878]

i agree with jh i'm a bit young to remenbor 63 and 47 i don't think this country just wouldn't able to coap with it. A dusting of snow brings the country to a stanstill.

[stewfox]

I think the problem with our transport in the uk is there dont take forecast seriously am pretty sure in other countrys there will have plans in place for severe weather that are more rebust and better thought out. us in the uk only need a few flakes and everything grounds to halt which is going to need to change if our climate changes to a colder one with worse winters.

It cost money 'Billions' to prepare for long hard cold winters, If we had regular 62/63 or frequent Dec 2010 we would be as prepared as well as anyone else.

[garbagebags]

i agree with jh i'm a bit young to remenbor 63 and 47 i don't think this country just wouldn't able to coap with it. A dusting of snow brings the country to a stanstill.

Im just not sure it does.

We don't half moan like it does, we don't half act like it does. But I don't think it actually does bring it to a standstill. People now just love to complain because they cant get their CLK down to Starbucks for a Caramel Machiato. First world problems. People didn't whine about things like that in the 60's.

[bobbydog]

It seems to me that the effect of ENSO for winters is not so strong here in Europe. After all, we have had cold and harsh winters here regardless the state of ENSO. What matters here more is NAO and AO. NAO is really negative at the moment, and if it continues that way, we will surely have a cold start to winter. And it's only 3-4 weeks away, at least here in Finland.

that appears to be true- the ENSO state is a factor which can affect our weather but can also be over-ridden by other factors. as you say, the NAO has probably the most important effect on our winter weather but it is not dictated by ENSO (the NAO being a result of 'drivers' not a 'driver' itself)

[Charltonkerry]

I was 10 during 62/63 winter and have written some long stories on how we survived, we didn't live we survived, most things ran out and after the first week it was horrendous. I won't go on about it again as no doubt some are still bored by my memories.

Edited September 25, 2012 by Charltonkerry