Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2

[Mark Neal.]

Very quiet on here today, everyone having a Sunday afternoon power nap :~]

Haha, i think maybe the fact Autumn has arrived with Heavy Rain and Strong winds forecast has took the attention of winter for the timebeing

[gottolovethisweather]

Very quiet on here today, everyone having a Sunday afternoon power nap :~]

Well at least, it gives you a chance to catch up on the 220 other posts on this thread and the 709 on the preceding one.

All joking aside though, there has been and will continue to be, many a worthwhile post as things become clearer, stratospherically speaking etc.

Probably not from me though.

Edited September 23, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Don]

Hi all

Here's my first UK model based seasonal forecast;

http://www.gavsweath...m/seasonal.html

Created on 21st September 2012 this video uses seasonal, global numerical models from the UK Met Office, JAMSTEC, the Beijing Climate Center and CFS/NOAA to predict the possible weather in the United Kingdom for the coming winter.

As expected so far away the models create a mixed picture, with the UK Met Office model looking very cold, while many of the other models look nearer normal.

More updates will follow in October and November and as well as these model based forecasts once a month I'll be doing regular updates with round-up videos where I look at SST's, snow cover, etc...

If you have any questions or points about the video, please ask.

Thanks for your support.

The Met Office model appears to have shades of Winter 2010/11 about it. Very cold start gradually becoming milder as the season progresses?

[SMU]

Nice video gav- Ive watched the first bit so far

One comment I would add to your period analysis commentary-

Is that on seasonal models they tend to blend out a signal the further away we get in time, as expected the signal for blocking is weakened as I guess more of a historical bias is applied towards the norm at long range-

So to see a blocking signal for Jan or feb is VERY good even if its weak because is overiding the bias....

S

[Gavin Hannah]

Jst seen a tweet from Jlaminate floori, jamsec model predicting a Nino winter.

Jamstec backs short lived nino and return to la nina. AGW Agenda Drivel beaten like Scarlett Ohara's mule.. again pic.twitter.com/LGnpa3oh

Edited September 23, 2012 by IBringTheHammer

[Mark Neal.]

Jst seen a tweet from Jlaminate floori, jamsec model predicting a Nino winter.

Jamstec backs short lived nino and return to la nina. AGW Agenda Drivel beaten like Scarlett Ohara's mule.. again pic.twitter.com/LGnpa3oh

From that, what would we expect for our winter to be like, if jamstec was indeed correct? Thanks.

[Gavin Hannah]

Better chance of epic winter with la nina rather than el nino i believe. Bt its nt impossible.

Keep in mind its jst a forecast and there are loads of variables in play during our winter.

[SnowObsessor90]

The Met Office model appears to have shades of Winter 2010/11 about it. Very cold start gradually becoming milder as the season progresses?

Well ideally I'd rather an 09/10 style winter with the cold arriving just in the run up towards Christmas as opposed to November/December 2010 when it arrived earlier as it just makes the occasion all the more special in my eyes but beggar's can't be choosers I suppose.

Edited September 23, 2012 by Anonymous21

[Gavin P]

Thanks Don. Yes, I though of 10/11 when I was going through the charts.

Nice video gav- Ive watched the first bit so far

One comment I would add to your period analysis commentary-

Is that on seasonal models they tend to blend out a signal the further away we get in time, as expected the signal for blocking is weakened as I guess more of a historical bias is applied towards the norm at long range-

So to see a blocking signal for Jan or feb is VERY good even if its weak because is overiding the bias....

S

Thanks Steve. I know you used to do something a bit like this, so its great to get your feedback. And you make a very good point about the signal becoming weaker the further out you go. I'll try and make that clearer in future vids. I'm still learning as I go how to get everything in.

Edited September 23, 2012 by Gavin P

[SMU]

No worries

I remember the model tracker-!!

Note tonights ECM trending back on atlantic blocking at 192-

S

Edited September 23, 2012 by Steve Murr

[ICETAB]

No worries

I remember the model tracker-!!

Note tonights ECM trending back on atlantic blocking at 192-

S

Yeah ECM and GFS are like chalk and cheese in FI. I hope ECM has picked up on something because it was starting to look like a mild period was on its way.

[bluearmy]

dont worry about mild periods in early october - irrelevant wrt to winter. a blocked pattern with a gentle continental feed is lovely for early october. anyway, nice to see another cfs run with a semi permanent -AO signal throughout winter. very blocked for us and a jan which looks like a neg CET though quite dry. dec and feb dont deliver too much of note so a good example that a neg AO doesnt guarantee a snowfest for nw europe. tbh, that run looks remarkably like the mean charts from the french bureau linked to earlier today. onwards and upwards ...............

[Catacol]

Better chance of epic winter with la nina rather than el nino i believe. Bt its nt impossible.

Keep in mind its jst a forecast and there are loads of variables in play during our winter.

Not sure that is true. Lots depends on the severity of Nina or Nino - it is not a one size fits all weather driver. My understanding is that a weak Nino to neutral ENSO is statistically very good for cold weather over here. Strong La Nina conditions tend to favour a more active vortex in the early part of winter...

[Don]

Well ideally I'd rather an 09/10 style winter with the cold arriving just in the run up towards Christmas as opposed to November/December 2010 when it arrived earlier as it just makes the occasion all the more special in my eyes but beggar's can't be choosers I suppose.

Oh yes so would I. As epic as December 2010 was I still preferred Winter 2009/10 to 2010/11 for the same reasons as you mention. In many ways 2010/11 was very similar to 1981/82 but the main difference was that it started a couple of weeks earlier and come the end of December that was it for severe cold and snowy weather for the south at least, whereas the 1st half of January 1982 had further severe cold and snow.

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

Oh yes so would I. As epic as December 2010 was I still preferred Winter 2009/10 to 2010/11 for the same reasons as you mention. In many ways 2010/11 was very similar to 1981/82 but the main difference was that it started a couple of weeks earlier and come the end of December that was it for severe cold and snowy weather for the south at least, whereas the 1st half of January 1982 had further severe cold and snow.

WHat would be great is 09/10 and 10/11 mixed together and then you would get the perfect winter.

my fav was 09/10

[Jackfrost]

I really can't choose between 09-10 and 10-11.

There was snow here in early December 2010, and then an epic fall on December 17th (30-45cm) followed by a Christmas week of bitter temperatures and enormous icicles but after New Year it was one of the dullest winter periods I can remember.

Our first snow in 2009 (4 inches or so) was on December 21st and it stayed around for Christmas. We had another two or three heavy falls up until mid-January, and further lighter falls throughout February and early March.

I suppose 09-10 trumps the following winter, but only just, because the snow fall of December 17th 2010 was just spectacular, especially with it occurring in the run up to Christmas.

I'm especially fond of these two pictures I took:

http://static.netwea..._785_203914.jpg

http://static.netwea..._785_947702.jpg

More in my gallery.

Edited September 23, 2012 by Jackfrost

[SnowObsessor90]

It seems to have been raining non stop since earlier, imagine if it were winter under a similar setup.

[feb1991blizzard]

A very acceptable chart for October, snow possible to low levels even further south from this, albeit not huge amounts and probably restricted to coastal areas.

Edited September 23, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Lettucing Gutted]

Not sure that is true. Lots depends on the severity of Nina or Nino - it is not a one size fits all weather driver. My understanding is that a weak Nino to neutral ENSO is statistically very good for cold weather over here. Strong La Nina conditions tend to favor a more active vortex in the early part of winter...

The winter of 2009-2010 showed that even a strong El Nino is very good for cold weather here. The great thing about that El Nino was that its toasty Warm Pool was West Based i.e. in the Tropical Western Pacific Ocean in contrast to the more common East Based El Nino Warm Pools in the Tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean. With the strong El Nino Warm Pool West Based this actually enhanced the signal for a Negative Pacific Decadel Oscillation phase. The West Based El Nino signal also combined with the -ve PDO to create a Positive Pacific North America Pattern phase. This whole setup created an Upper Level Trough over the Midlatitude North Eastern Pacific Ocean, an Upper Level Ridge over the Western United States and an Upper Level Trough over the Eastern United States. This combination also means the main Upper Level Westerly Jet Stream leaves the United States on a Southerly Track which also sets up a powerful Negative North Atlantic Oscillation and Negative Arctic Oscillation phase. Edited September 24, 2012 by Craig Evans

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

It seems to have been raining non stop since earlier, imagine if it were winter under a similar setup.

We can dream...!

[Radiating Dendrite]

CFS looking quite zonal this morning - must have woken with a headache and is thus a bit grumpy!

Hopefully some paracetamol and steroids (for good measure) will put it in a much better mood later on!

[Pompski!]

All I know is, it had better be a snowfest this year as my little boy wants a bigger snowman than 09/10 and that one was 13'.

[Radiating Dendrite]

All I know is, it had better be a snowfest this year as my little boy wants a bigger snowman than 09/10 and that one was 13'.

Good effort!

Maybe we need a Netweather winter mascot!

[Gavin Hannah]

That gives me an idea.. A Netweather snowman comp!!

[Radiating Dendrite]

That gives me an idea.. A Netweather snowman comp!!

All we need now is the snow! (and a stash of carrots)!