Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2

[tcc]

I'm talking from an IMBY perspective, last years cold snap brought nothing but a few days of freezing rain and nine days of below average temps. Nothing to write home about really!

That's why it's best to indicate it was a NIMBY view because I was thinking that in the grand scheme of things, last year wasn't too bad! Yes there was no near as much snow as the previous two years, however base last year on the early noughties and the 90's, and last year blew most of those years out of the water for round here!

Last year there was one notable cold spell where snow was on the ground for a number of days, not a huge amount just a few inches, but in the 90's for eg we might have had snow dusting (1 inch maybe)on the ground for less than 24 hours and mostly gone by midday, and that would have been it for the winter!

There is certainly some cold optimism this year which wasn't here last year, I guess based on the predicted x factors, so it'll be interesting in a few weeks time to see how we're faring with those signals and whether they are still indicating colder themes.

[Geordiesnow]

You mean the two week period with a cet blew zero and snow on the ground? How short are our memories if we dismiss this as a 'wet lettuce'. meteorologically speaking we were a 'nats' away from the coldest spell of weather for decades.

Back to now and this thread is crazy. It's September the 20th !!

You are exactly right regarding we were only 'nats' away from what would surely be the most severe cold blast I would ever of experienced, people only need to look at the start of February 2012 on wetterzentrale too see how fantastic the blocking was and the large cold airmass associated with it. We did tap into that cold air but unfortunately, there was no instability so North Sea Snow Showers were non existant and it was cold and grey from what I remember. The charts were hinting at sending that cold air our way but they never really showed it clicking together or in other words, the blocking could just not edge westwards enough.

For that reason though, I would count last winter as a winter which showed quite extensive blocking at some point and shows that if the right set up do come along, we can still get very cold upper air temperatures appearing despite a warmer Arctic.

So despite the very poor snow amounts we had here last winter(don't think we accumulated more than 2CM here last winter), I still count it as encouraging for those who may think extensive Northern Blocking could be making a bit of a come back.

[UV-RAY]

I stand by my comment, last February was nothing special for a lot of the UK. Those in the South, South East, and East did rather well out of it, Those to the West and North West saw nothing exceptional, even frost was below average for the month. Hopefully if the MetO's probability charts are to be believed then this winter will be far, far better, hopefully!!

[Geordiesnow]

I stand by my comment, last February was nothing special for a lot of the UK. Those in the South, South East, and East did rather well out of it, Those to the West and North West saw nothing exceptional, even frost was below average for the month. Hopefully if the MetO's probability charts are to be believed then this winter will be far, far better, hopefully!!

Still think you should look at the start of February for the whole of the Northern Hemisphere to get an idea how close the UK was to witness quite a cold blast in terms of snowfall and severe cold.

Even if the weather was un-remarkable, the blocking was anything but!

[UV-RAY]

Still think you should look at the start of February for the whole of the Northern Hemisphere to get an idea how close the UK was to witness quite a cold blast in terms of snowfall and severe cold.

Even if the weather was un-remarkable, the blocking was anything but!

I understand your point, but it may as well been another 1000 miles away, than knocking on our door. Last year there were far too many pieces of the jigsaw absent, this year is looking far more promising as it stands.

[geoffw]

how well does edinburugh fare for snow in winter?

[Snowstorm1]

Here is what I hope for December...

December

Week 1 & 2 - Mild with winds from the southwest

Week 3 - High Pressure settles over the country leading to bitterley cold mornings

Week 4 - The Northeasterly airflow from our good friends the continent and the artic lets rip! Bitterley cold and very snowy christmas with bouts of snow passing the country in all areas by christmas day everywhere in UK covered in snow varying from 5cm in the most unluckiest areas to 3 FT (90cm) in the lucky areas.

Eastern Side of Country Worst (Best) Affected with most snowfalls

Western Side of Country Not Immune but snowfalls should be more light and patchier...

After that Ill go lay down and dream....

[bluearmy]

i'll write it in capitals

CET (THAT'S THE ENGLAND FIGURE RATHER THAN ANY SMALL PART OF THE COUNTRY) UP TO 14TH FEB WAS +0.3C.

it was very cold. up till the 10th the CET was -0.3c

the ironic fact is that that the uppers headed our way were too low. had the flow from the east not had uppers so low (below -15c), we would not have seen the shortwave develop in the baltic sea which diverted the deepest cold to our southeast. it wasnt a thousand miles away - it was here. its just the detail that prevented widespread deep snowcover. thats how it is. you have to get the cold air in and then you have to hope that the 'detail' plays ball. last feb it didnt. it could just have easily have worked out for us.

[Letitsnowyorkshire]

Here is what I hope for December...

December

Week 1 & 2 - Mild with winds from the southwest

Week 3 - High Pressure settles over the country leading to bitterley cold mornings

Week 4 - The Northeasterly airflow from our good friends the continent and the artic lets rip! Bitterley cold and very snowy christmas with bouts of snow passing the country in all areas by christmas day everywhere in UK covered in snow varying from 5cm in the most unluckiest areas to 3 FT (90cm) in the lucky areas.

Eastern Side of Country Worst (Best) Affected with most snowfalls

Western Side of Country Not Immune but snowfalls should be more light and patchier...

After that Ill go lay down and dream....

ahhh and what a delight that would be if it were to come true. I have to agree that there were too many close calls last winter that didn't quite happen ( not in West Yorkshire anyway) for me to think of winter 11/12 as anything but a let down .

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Lets hope it doesn't turn out like last years wet lettuce of a cold spell then.

I still feel the cold will arrive much earlier and a December 2010 cannot be ruled out.

Indeed Seven, it shows that a very cold set up could be in place but never engulf the UK.....lot's of Europe was frigid as we felt it a bit down here. I haven't concurred with RJS LRF yet, you may be right or we may all be wrong.BFTP

[UV-RAY]

i'll write it in capitals

CET (THAT'S THE ENGLAND FIGURE RATHER THAN ANY SMALL PART OF THE COUNTRY) UP TO 14TH FEB WAS +0.3C.

it was very cold. up till the 10th the CET was -0.3c

the ironic fact is that that the uppers headed our way were too low. had the flow from the east not had uppers so low (below -15c), we would not have seen the shortwave develop in the baltic sea which diverted the deepest cold to our southeast. it wasnt a thousand miles away - it was here. its just the detail that prevented widespread deep snowcover. thats how it is. you have to get the cold air in and then you have to hope that the 'detail' plays ball. last feb it didnt. it could just have easily have worked out for us.

A bit patronising, I'm well aware you need to get the cold air in place and there is more to a cold spell than snow, but the fact remains that the West and North West of the country didn't really benefit from those cold uppers.

[bluearmy]

A bit patronising, I'm well aware you need to get the cold air in place and there is more to a cold spell than snow, but the fact remains that the West and North West of the country didn't really benefit from those cold uppers.

not wanting to be patronising. apologies for that but to dismiss the first half of feb 2012 as a wet lettuce is to rewrite meteorological history. even manchester in the 'balmy' northwest of england, saw the mean temp to the 13th of +0.2c. surely that means that area did benefit from the low uppers. there just wasnt the instability to deliver any snowfall to go with the low temps. granted that there were no ice days with three days recording maxes of 1c. anyway, we have several weeks of nothingness to get through now until the first meaningful strat indications are available so i assume this thread will begin to lose some momentum.

[Cloud 10]

Quite a bit of freezing rain at my location during February as the cold

air was over-ridden by the atlantic.

Was good model watching though with that monster cold pool edging westwards.

[Met4Cast]

Anyone else notice how the CFS Daily charts seem to have a thing for undercutting lows?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Here is what I hope for December...

December

Week 1 & 2 - Mild with winds from the southwest

Week 3 - High Pressure settles over the country leading to bitterley cold mornings

Week 4 - The Northeasterly airflow from our good friends the continent and the artic lets rip! Bitterley cold and very snowy christmas with bouts of snow passing the country in all areas by christmas day everywhere in UK covered in snow varying from 5cm in the most unluckiest areas to 3 FT (90cm) in the lucky areas.

Eastern Side of Country Worst (Best) Affected with most snowfalls

Western Side of Country Not Immune but snowfalls should be more light and patchier...

After that Ill go lay down and dream....

Not keen on first 2 weeks, I want 2010 style

[snowy weather]

Anyone else notice how the CFS Daily charts seem to have a thing for undercutting lows?

What are undercutting lows and how do they effect us.

[Snowstorm1]

Not keen on first 2 weeks, I want 2010 style

Same here but it would make us all feel so grateful for snow

[Met4Cast]

What are undercutting lows and how do they effect us.

It's basically when low Pressure pushes underneath an area of High Pressure to our North drawing in cold Easterly winds

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

Where is everyone the thread has been quiet for over two hours?

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Saturday afternoon football at a guess 😃

iPhone seems to want to add lots of question marks when I insert a smiley, very strange :~)

[cooling climate]

The 12z run on the CFS is another corker with plenty of HLB's.

The chart below virtually a repeat of 2010's end of Nov early December

cold spell.Beautiful but meaningless at this stage.

As others have said this thread is crazy considering it is only late

September but with a definite Autumnal feel in the air the blocked charts

that the CFS keeps churning out may well be a good sign of things to come.

The next several weeks should be interesting to see how the vortex starts to

form and wheather we see further high pressure ridging into the Arctic ( a

good sign imho)also a good idea to keep an eye on the ozone levels which

would aid in potential blocking and a -AO.

The site below is one that I use quite a lot.Click on where it says the archive

of total zonal maps to see the differences between this year and previous

years.

http://exp-studies.tor.ec.gc.ca/e/ozone/ozoneworld.htm

[Polar Maritime]

Winter 2012-2013 Weather Forecast: will Arctic Sea Ice Cover play a Role? http://durotrigan.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/winter-2012-2013-weather-forecast-will.html

[Polar Maritime]

The 12z run on the CFS is another corker with plenty of HLB's.

The chart below virtually a repeat of 2010's end of Nov early December

cold spell.Beautiful but meaningless at this stage.

As others have said this thread is crazy considering it is only late

September but with a definite Autumnal feel in the air the blocked charts

that the CFS keeps churning out may well be a good sign of things to come.

The next several weeks should be interesting to see how the vortex starts to

form and wheather we see further high pressure ridging into the Arctic ( a

good sign imho)also a good idea to keep an eye on the ozone levels which

would aid in potential blocking and a -AO.

The site below is one that I use quite a lot.Click on where it says the archive

of total zonal maps to see the differences between this year and previous

years.

http://exp-studies.t.../ozoneworld.htm

Nice chart CC, -12 uppers over the uk....

[snowy weather]

Nice chart CC, -12 uppers over the uk....

Correct me if I am wrong as I am new to the weather scene but -12 uppers means very Very very heavy snow doesn't ?

[Met4Cast]

Correct me if I am wrong as I am new to the weather scene but -12 uppers means very Very very heavy snow doesn't ?

Nope, that's just upper temperatures, it could be completely dry but it'll be very cold. However, the colder the uppers the higher the chance of convection from the North Sea bringing heavy snow showers, but it doesn't guarantee snowfall