Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2

[Met4Cast]

sorry Daniel we seem at cross purposes I'll stop posting comments in here. I will simply carry on trying to find something that might be the key.

Whats the harm in people looking at different factors then looking at the winters during a particular period and seeing what happened then posting about it? I swear, sometimes you say one thing on here and it's like the NetWeather mafia jump on you

[Methuselah]

How can we do that when we don't yet know which factors DO show a link? You have to look at all different factors to find a link, isn't that what various people have been doing above?

Not always, no...It's just because some proposed links keep coming-up negative that, perhaps, we need start looking elsewhere? I did say 'look for' and not 'look at'...

[Met4Cast]

Not always, no...It's just because some proposed links keep coming-up negative that, perhaps, we need start looking elsewhere? I did say 'look for' and not 'look at'...

Yup agree with you on that one!

[bobbydog]

It has to be said again, no offence meant but I have lost count how many times I have tried to explain this. No one, neither individual or centre, either amateur or professional has yet come up with sufficient evidence to be able to use it to link with any past winter being cold/severe or whatever, nor with the opposite mild or very mild. Therefore the prospect of accurate predictions, for the time being, remains small.

Various folk and centres are doing all kinds of research, as shown in news items about the UK Met O and its 'new' model for the higher atmosphere. Whether that may help to bring a break through in predicting future winters we simply do not know.

For the time being there is no understood link or links that can accurately predict a season ahead, spring, summer, autumn or winter.

Of course now and then centres or individuals do predict fairly accurately for one winter/season but NOT consistently.

actually john, as i was writing the post, i meant to add but forgot, that im sure many, more learned people have tried in the past and not found a link. this is why i used the weather history link, as sometimes the bare statistics do not tell the whole story. sometimes human experience can tell us a little bit more.

[Robbie Garrett]

What happened in the first 300 years on that graph to make the PDO remain in such a negative state for so long?!

"a persistent negative phase occurred during medieval times (993-1300) which is consistent with la nina conditions reconstructed in the tropical Pacific and multi-century droughts in the South-West United States."

[johnholmes]

actually john, as i was writing the post, i meant to add but forgot, that im sure many, more learned people have tried in the past and not found a link. this is why i used the weather history link, as sometimes the bare statistics do not tell the whole story. sometimes human experience can tell us a little bit more.

very true, I'd love to go back to work with UK Met if I could go to the area that is looking into trying to decipher any signals, Stratosphere, or Troposphere, for giving decent guidance on predicting the following winter or indeed any season-oh well one can dream!

[syed2878]

i do agree partly with 7of9 last winter's cold only gave us 12hours of snow 4feb snow fell and it was gon by the afternoon of the 5th. I hope this winter's better than last. So far it's looking good, lets hope the strat plays ball and we r on the rite side of any blocking.

[DubWeatherAddict]

I sure do like the look of the CFS run for October.... Met Monthly outlook onto something?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=714&mode=2&carte=0&run=0

Ps..... some of November is even better but i wont got " THAT FAR" ..

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I sure do like the look of the CFS run for October.... Met Monthly outlook onto something?

http://www.meteociel...2&carte=0&run=0

Ps..... some of November is even better but i wont got " THAT FAR" ..

amazing cold pool to our E on Xmas Day

[bobbydog]

Rather than the CET, maybe correlating the PDO with some kind of winter index might work better? Like the type Weather-history does for Manchester?

Also, this graph may be of some use to you!

http://www.agu.org/j...5GL022478.shtml

thanks for that, interesting chart. though i'm not sure netweather's history goes back that far! adding to that, how do they know the PDO index from 1000 years ago?!!!

[Roger J Smith]

What happened in the first 300 years on that graph to make the PDO remain in such a negative state for so long?!

Possibly the North Magnetic Pole was closer to the Bering Strait than in the past thousand years. We only have reliable positions for that since about 1650 (Victoria Island 17th century southeast to subarctic mainland Canada 18th-early 19th century then consistently moving NNW and NW since then to current location near 85N 120W.

If as many theorize the circulation is anchored by the geomagnetic field, a strong NMP location in northern Alaska, quite plausible given the later positions, would induce a much stronger trough over the central Pacific and weaken the Pacific subtropical highs by as much as 30% relative to modern times. The higher values in the graph around the 16th century pre-Maunder could also be explained in this way by a location of the NMP further north than Victoria Island such as north of Banks Island or Melville Island, which would be rather similar to the modern position. I'm not saying this is the only driving factor as solar variation would also be important, but from the research of Schove, the 7th to 9th centuries were relatively active in solar variability. The 15th century was another minimum almost equal to the Maunder later on and more noteworthy than the Dalton (according to Schove's estimates which are based mostly on auroral sightings in China and Korea).

[Roger J Smith]

Last winter failed to impress with snow but keep in mind there was a 15-day period (29 Jan to 12 Feb) that managed an average CET value of - 0.6 C.

[bluearmy]

Last winter failed to impress with snow but keep in mind there was a 15-day period (29 Jan to 12 Feb) that managed an average CET value of - 0.6 C.

i agree but it doesn't seem to impress the audience roger. could be a long old season ahead. i hope nick has plenty of tablets to dish out !!!

[Staffordshire]

I really cant belive you guys are on page 11 of part 2 on a winter thread in september!!! haha i guess i do love winter too, espesially watching charts come into timeframe!

[sebastiaan1973]

First frost of the season this morning in the east of the Netherlands. -0,6c in Twente. Eelde achieved with 1,1c, it's 3rd place coldest september night since 1906!

Edited September 23, 2012 by sebastiaan1973

[sebastiaan1973]

http://actualite.lac...-2013-18159.php

Winter forecast by a French Weather organisation. It's part of the Dutch MeteoConsult group.

If you don't read french, please use google translate.

[Granite]

Here in South-Western Finland, September has been significantly cooler than last year, and even cooler than 2010. As writing this, it's only +7°C and raining. NAO is also in negative state at the moment:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html

Although yes, it's early, but things looks good for a cold winter. My prediction is that Northern Lapland will see the first snow in the end of this month and here in Southern parts at some point of October.

[Methuselah]

Welcome Granite...Could you put your location in your profile please?

[Granite]

Welcome Granite...Could you put your location in your profile please?

Thanks Rybris, certainly!

[Polar Maritime]

Welcome aboard Granite, What a lovely part of the world you live in...

[Methuselah]

Thanks Rybris, certainly!

Thanks mate. Ditto, PM - a lovely location indeed!

[Robbie Garrett]

Not sure if anyone has noticed but the 1 month CFS is a lot more accurate than the 9 monthly. Was just looking at the 1 month and oh my god, what I was seeing the other day for November may come in October.

Watch as we go from quite a warmish start to October.

High Pressure builds and the jet stream changes it's angle quite a lot.

The first attempt at a Polar Low comes through...

Polar Vortex setting up in a decent location?

Early November on the 9 monthly looks slightly different...

But watch this for progress.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'm not sure if it has been mentioned, but this summer (Jun-Aug) was the most -ve NAO on record (from 1950 to present).

Even more surprisingly, 2011 is the 3rd most -ve NAO on record, and the last 5 summers are all in the 10 most -ve on record!

Unfortunately though, there is practically no correlation between summer and winter NAO values

NAO monthly data since 1950 is here http://www.cpc.ncep....ent.ascii.table

[Gavin P]

Hi all

Here's my first UK model based seasonal forecast;

http://www.gavsweath...m/seasonal.html

Created on 21st September 2012 this video uses seasonal, global numerical models from the UK Met Office, JAMSTEC, the Beijing Climate Center and CFS/NOAA to predict the possible weather in the United Kingdom for the coming winter.

As expected so far away the models create a mixed picture, with the UK Met Office model looking very cold, while many of the other models look nearer normal.

More updates will follow in October and November and as well as these model based forecasts once a month I'll be doing regular updates with round-up videos where I look at SST's, snow cover, etc...

If you have any questions or points about the video, please ask.

Thanks for your support.

Edited September 23, 2012 by Gavin P

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Very quiet on here today, everyone having a Sunday afternoon power nap :~]