Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2

[johnholmes]

1963 is a taster compared to whats coming this winter....

I'll refrain from posting my initial response to that comment, I note you are 17 years old.

I am 73 and worked through that winter, somewhere in Net Wx archives are my memories of all the severe winters of the 20th century I personally experienced. Take a look at CET values below zero C or others that are below 1C.

Take it from me with our modern society with its central heating, a distribution system for everything rather than local communities being much more self sufficient, a similar winter, late December until early March would end up paralysing this country.

Even teenagers would grow weary of it I am pretty certain. Mind you some folk would almost certainly die that would not have done so in any reasonable winter, with say just a 2-3 week severe spell in it.

[EML Network]

I thought this might be of some interest to you on here.

Looking at the Image below I have put a little red dot to years that look very similar to this one in terms of the El Nino / La Nina pattern, both in terms of going into El Nino like conditions after a double dip La Nina, all of those years had harsh winters, and in fact were looking almost exactly the same as we were heading into Dec 2010 :-)

Could History be about to repeat itself ??

[cheeky_monkey]

I'll refrain from posting my initial response to that comment, I note you are 17 years old.

I am 73 and worked through that winter, somewhere in Net Wx archives are my memories of all the severe winters of the 20th century I personally experienced. Take a look at CET values below zero C or others that are below 1C.

Take it from me with our modern society with its central heating, a distribution system for everything rather than local communities being much more self sufficient, a similar winter, late December until early March would end up paralysing this country.

Even teenagers would grow weary of it I am pretty certain. Mind you some folk would almost certainly die that would not have done so in any reasonable winter, with say just a 2-3 week severe spell in it.

i totally disagree it would paralyses this country..and is a fact more people die during mild winters than in cold ones

[johnholmes]

each to their own opinion c_m

Where you live now is totally geared up to such weather this country is not

[garbagebags]

I think in some ways we would cope better (more reliable heating, water and utilities) and in some ways we would cope worse (transport)

[lightningst]

I think in some ways we would cope better (more reliable heating, water and utilities) and in some ways we would cope worse (transport)

I think the problem with our transport in the uk is there dont take forecast seriously am pretty sure in other countrys there will have plans in place for severe weather that are more rebust and better thought out. us in the uk only need a few flakes and everything grounds to halt which is going to need to change if our climate changes to a colder one with worse winters. Edited September 25, 2012 by lightningst

[Winter Monsoon]

I think its more to do with driver skills. Most people in this country just simply cannot drive properly. Face with snow/ice/wind/rain and the problem is even worse.

[Gavin Hannah]

If one were to create a forecast for the upcoming winter using only cues from nature (Old wives/farmers tales) what would we have to look for?

The ones I know of are;

1 - Laden berry bushes.

2 - More spiders than usual in the house.

3 - Field mice moving in early.

4 - Early bird migration.

Anyone know of any others?

[garbagebags]

I know not everyone agrethe but I think the problem with transport now is simply 2 fold.

There is a lot more of it than 62/63!its oh so easy to gridlock an entire road very quickly if one car gets stuck.

And 2 is tyres. 95% of people driving around on the wrong tyres for the conditions. people will say ahh but they didn't have winter tyres in the 60's...Well actually they kind of did! That had much heavier vehicles on much narrower tyres, with much tread than some of today's tyres. 3 years ago I had a hot hatch with big low profile summer tyres on and it wouldn't even move in the slightest of snow. No car from the 60's would have had that problem. And like I said earlier, it only takes one idiot to get stuck to quickly gridlock and entire road.

[lightningst]

I think its more to do with driver skills. Most people in this country just simply cannot drive properly. Face with snow/ice/wind/rain and the problem is even worse.

Yeah very true i used to be a bus driver for a uk bus company and we certainly had no bad weather training. There wasnt anything in place to advise drivers on daily conditions or anything to warn them if severe weather would effect the day. also when you see some car drivers and the way there drive in snowy conditions it just scares you off the roads hence why i dont drive for a living any more!

[garbagebags]

I spend quite a bit of time in Norway and I asked in conversation whether they spend a lot of time worried about the weather or if it was going to snow badly in winter. They all said "they never check" why? Because hey don't need to. They all use winter tyres and never ever get stuck. It's just not a problem over there. Honestly the caos on the roads in the UK is 99% down to wrong tyre choice. I understand it is difficult for some people to afford two sets of tyres but I can also guarantee we wouldn't have any disruption if everyone did.

[lightningst]

If one were to create a forecast for the upcoming winter using only cues from nature (Old wives/farmers tales) what would we have to look for?

The ones I know of are;

1 - Laden berry bushes.

2 - More spiders than usual in the house.

3 - Field mice moving in early.

4 - Early bird migration.

Anyone know of any others?

my mums knees always hurt her when cold weather is on the way does that count?

[Eskimo]

If one were to create a forecast for the upcoming winter using only cues from nature (Old wives/farmers tales) what would we have to look for?

The ones I know of are;

1 - Laden berry bushes.

2 - More spiders than usual in the house.

3 - Field mice moving in early.

4 - Early bird migration.

Anyone know of any others?

We've had an unusual amount of spiders at home that's for sure, my cat has caught a substantial amount of mice, my blackberry bush is fruiting similar to that of 2009 (loads of fruit but much later than previous years), I can't really comment on the birds though.

[Gavin Hannah]

my mums knees always hurt her when cold weather is on the way does that count?

Normal cold or Epic cold?

[cheeky_monkey]

each to their own opinion c_m

Where you live now is totally geared up to such weather this country is not

we are really not that much more geared up than the UK..there is the general chaos for a week or so when the snow first starts to fly thereafter it becomes the norm and people and transport just get on with it..i think you are doing the great British public a disservice.

[jethro]

1963 is a taster compared to whats coming this winter....

Part of me thinks that would be amazing, the other part of me thinks, lawd I hope not, I'd be bankrupt. The prospect of 3 months intense cold and deep snow doesn't provide a lot of joy when you're a self-employed gardener.

I guess wishing never changed anything though, what will be will be, we'll just have to deal with it, mild or cold.

[garbagebags]

Part of me thinks that would be amazing, the other part of me thinks, lawd I hope not, I'd be bankrupt. The prospect of 3 months intense cold and deep snow doesn't provide a lot of joy when you're a self-employed gardener.

I guess wishing never changed anything though, what will be will be, we'll just have to deal with it, mild or cold.

How dare you. Wishing gave Gepeto a REAL BOY!!!

[Methuselah]

Part of me thinks that would be amazing, the other part of me thinks, lawd I hope not, I'd be bankrupt. The prospect of 3 months intense cold and deep snow doesn't provide a lot of joy when you're a self-employed gardener.

I guess wishing never changed anything though, what will be will be, we'll just have to deal with it, mild or cold.

Our bones get softer with age too, J!

[PeteG]

I was 16 in 1963 and I have no great desire to live through another winter lasting over 2 months, especially as I now pay the heating bills! I remember the relief on looking out the bedroom window one day in March and, apart from the fact I didn't have to scrape the ice off to see, I could see patches of green and brown. Made a nice change from weeks of everything being black and white.

And if you think 8 weeks of icy weather guarantees lots of snow think again, during the whole period the snow in our back garden was less than 4 inches deep, and much of the time less than that.

[UV-RAY]

I wouldn't be banking on this winter being an El Nino one. The -PDO is agressively strong and has full atmospheric coupling. We can see this in the strong residual SST warm anomalies in the Sea of Japan and in the NW Atlantic off Newfoundland. These anomalies are strong and +ve zonal wind anomalies across the tropics extremely weak. That has severely dented the probability of a warm ENSO phase this winter, indeed the prospects of us going back into Nina phase in the spring have increased over the last week or so.

Initial analysis of the QBO suggests a weaker than normal polar vortex this winter, with an interesting focus on increased probability of a disruption of the vortex late November or early December and again around New Year. The profile of hemispheric SSTAs is also pointing to a -ve height anomaly across Europe. All eyes on October NH snowcover. Should come in above average if we are on course for a cold winter.

I was thinking the very same regarding Nina conditions appearing around Spring, nino conditions just don't look like getting going whatsoever this Autumn/Winter and I would think that by December ENSO will be treading Neutral. Edited September 25, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[High Altitude]

If one were to create a forecast for the upcoming winter using only cues from nature (Old wives/farmers tales) what would we have to look for?

The ones I know of are;

1 - Laden berry bushes.

2 - More spiders than usual in the house.

3 - Field mice moving in early.

4 - Early bird migration.

Anyone know of any others?

Dave's seagulls Lol

[NorthYorksWeather]

We've had an unusual amount of spiders at home that's for sure, my cat has caught a substantial amount of mice, my blackberry bush is fruiting similar to that of 2009 (loads of fruit but much later than previous years), I can't really comment on the birds though.

We've had an unusual amount of spiders at home that's for sure, my cat has caught a substantial amount of mice, my blackberry bush is fruiting similar to that of 2009 (loads of fruit but much later than previous years), I can't really comment on the birds though.

Have to agree there, I'm no longer scared of giant spiders as I've dealt with so many this month, and the amount of mice/voles/rats the cats catch is just ridiculous.

I also must comment in regards to winter tires ,I have a Vectra which is quite big and the tires are wide so it was useless in the snow the slightest hill and i was sliding sideways! Then last year was the first year I invested in some since moving out of town into a hilly area and they were fantastic, ploughing up hills as if it was 4WD. Definatly a good choice and will have them at the ready for this winters snowfest

[johnholmes]

I was 16 in 1963 and I have no great desire to live through another winter lasting over 2 months, especially as I now pay the heating bills! I remember the relief on looking out the bedroom window one day in March and, apart from the fact I didn't have to scrape the ice off to see, I could see patches of green and brown. Made a nice change from weeks of everything being black and white.

And if you think 8 weeks of icy weather guarantees lots of snow think again, during the whole period the snow in our back garden was less than 4 inches deep, and much of the time less than that.

hi Pete

I'll confirm the snow depth I was working at RCAF Langar!

As a meteorologist it should not have surprised me but it always did, by the time I got back to my parent's house on the very edge of the Peak District, about 500ft up, that depth was always double and maybe once or twice in that period almost 3 times that depth.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

If one were to create a forecast for the upcoming winter using only cues from nature (Old wives/farmers tales) what would we have to look for?

The ones I know of are;

1 - Laden berry bushes.

2 - More spiders than usual in the house.

3 - Field mice moving in early.

4 - Early bird migration.

Anyone know of any others?

I remember reading something online or in a paper a while ago that was to do with hanging out a pigs ear (I think!) and depending on how it dried or 'turned' was a sign of how the forthcoming winter was going to be - I don't think I dreamt it and perhaps I have got the meaning of it wrong, it was a while ago! Hopefully some of our older and more wiser members may be recall such an old wives tale! Least I hope so, otherwise you'll all think I'm stark raving mad!!! I am massively biased towards cold and snowy weather and like many of you would love, just once, to experience an epic winter, like a 47 or 62/63 - I know it would be harsh for many but it would be very interesting to see just how our modern society would cope!

[shedhead]

I remember reading something online or in a paper a while ago that was to do with hanging out a pigs ear (I think!) and depending on how it dried or 'turned' was a sign of how the forthcoming winter was going to be - I don't think I dreamt it and perhaps I have got the meaning of it wrong, it was a while ago! Hopefully some of our older and more wiser members may be recall such an old wives tale! Least I hope so, otherwise you'll all think I'm stark raving mad!!! I am massively biased towards cold and snowy weather and like many of you would love, just once, to experience an epic winter, like a 47 or 62/63 - I know it would be harsh for many but it would be very interesting to see just how our modern society would cope!

I'd like to know how the pig would cope hanging by an ear....