Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2

[Methuselah]

CFS looking quite zonal this morning - must have woken with a headache and is thus a bit grumpy!

Hopefully some paracetamol and steroids (for good measure) will put it in a much better mood later on!

Which means, surprise, surprise, that everybody will be quite within their rights to marvel at that particular model's brilliance...Much like those continually retro-fitted winter LRFs, that we hear so much about?

[Hotspur62]

Have followed this forum and others for last few months and signed up today.Very Interesting comments from members on what is in store for UK this winter and early indications point to a below average winter in terms of temp.Howver,we are not even out of September yet and i really don't feel that we can tell what the winter holds until end of October.

Looked at Gavin's first pointers towards Winter 2012/13 and found it very interesting yet models seem to conflict each other.

My guess is i think there is a higher chance of blocking this winter than last which would result in some cold spells of weather.Last winter was very disappointing in terms of cold and snow with exception of 2 weeks of cold here in Kent from end of Jan-mid feb.I do like cold weather and hope for more of 09-10 type of winter but time will tell.Will view this forum with interest over next few months!!

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

Just made my Christmas cake and can not wait to start injecting it with brandy, it should be amazing by Christmas.

to make it perfect all i need is snow flakes out side the window (past the lamppost) with a big fire going

[Gavin Hannah]

Ah there's going to be so many people buzzing with excitement this year. It may get all too much and some might start exploding, myself included lol.

A link to a winter forecast;

http://ukweather.wordpress.com/winter-201213/

I don't know who the author(s) is/are, but I've read through it and it's a well presented forecast.

Edited September 24, 2012 by IBringTheHammer

[Letitsnowyorkshire]

Ah there's going to be so many people buzzing with excitement this year. It may get all too much and some might start exploding, myself included lol.

A link to a winter forecast;

http://ukweather.wor.../winter-201213/

I don't know who the author(s) is/are, but I've read through it and it's a well presented forecast.

Really well presented indeed !

[TEITS]

CFS looking quite zonal this morning - must have woken with a headache and is thus a bit grumpy!

Hopefully some paracetamol and steroids (for good measure) will put it in a much better mood later on!

Personally I would rather rely on the signs from nature than using the CFS. A complete and utter waste of time that model is in my opinion regardless of what its predicting.

Whilst I am looking forward to this winter im still not convinced we fully understand the reasons for our recent unsettled summers, colder winters. Until we understand the cause then you cannot predict the future.

I personally find predicting a whole season ahead as impossible. We don't understand all the variables and more importantly understand how they interact with each other. Even in 20yrs I doubt LRF will be successful despite the advancements in computing power and its certainly beyond the human brain. The only advancement I have seen in forecasting in the past 20yrs is predicting 30 days ahead, weekly forecasts have remained the same in my opinion.

Mainly this winter I shall be sticking to the ECM and the Met O monthly outlooks.

[shedhead]

Personally I would rather rely on the signs from nature than using the CFS. A complete and utter waste of time that model is in my opinion regardless of what its predicting.

Whilst I am looking forward to this winter im still not convinced we fully understand the reasons for our recent unsettled summers, colder winters. Until we understand the cause then you cannot predict the future.

I personally find predicting a whole season ahead as impossible. We don't understand all the variables and more importantly understand how they interact with each other. Even in 20yrs I doubt LRF will be successful despite the advancements in computing power and its certainly beyond the human brain. The only advancement I have seen in forecasting in the past 20yrs is predicting 30 days ahead, weekly forecasts have remained the same in my opinion.

Mainly this winter I shall be sticking to the ECM and the Met O monthly outlooks.

Fast Show fan I assume?

Competely agree, nothing wrong with having a crack at it, but in reality even predicting 48hrs ahead can be fraught with problems even now... as Ex Nadine has prefectly illustrated recently.

Edited September 24, 2012 by shedhead

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

Here is a interesting yet less technical website.

http://www.snow-watc...php?f=20&t=1302

(forum)

Edited September 24, 2012 by Excitable_Weatherwatcher

[Met4Cast]

Here is a interesting yet less technical website.

http://www.snow-watc...php?f=20&t=1302

(forum)

Read the first post and closed the tab the second I read "Madden has an impressive record"

[Methuselah]

Read the first post and closed the tab the second I read "Madden has an impressive record"

What, for telling folks what they want to hear?

[Summer Sun]

Read the first post and closed the tab the second I read "Madden has an impressive record"

An impressive record for getting winter wrong yes, I remember last year he was adamant we would get a white Christmas with just 4 or 5 days left even though it was odds on it would be mild and Green

[mulzy]

Met Office 1-month and 3-month forecast skewed more towards colder than average than warmer than average.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-planners

[shedhead]

What, for telling folks what they want to hear?

There is a difference this year though, he's charging folk to tell them...now where did I put my debit card?...

[Met4Cast]

What, for telling folks what they want to hear?

An impressive record for getting winter wrong yes, I remember last year he was adamant we would get a white Christmas with just 4 or 5 days left even though it was odds on it would be mild and Green

The thing that annoys me about Madden the most is that he refuses to ever admit he got a forecast wrong, he'll twist the facts and say something like "it snowed in on the top of a Scottish Mountain so I was right" and quite a few people go along with it! Mark Vogan is another one that annoys me, but I do have respect for him because he does at least admit when a forecast goes wrong

[AWD]

Don't forget Piers Corbyn, what's he saying?

[KTtom]

Read the first post and closed the tab the second I read "Madden has an impressive record"

Come on WMD everyone is allowed an opinion...just as someone on there was singing your praises! Judging and Criticizing a forum on 1 post is a bit hard and slightly arrogant if you don't mind me saying.

Thanks Excitable_weatherwatcher you're welcome over at anytime

Edited September 24, 2012 by KTtom

[Newberryone]

Hi all, totally new to this as I've only signed up today. Have always had a passion/obsession for extreme weather so I've little doubt that I'm in good company at long last. To give you all an example of how passionate I am about wicked weather, during the first freeze of 09/10 I used my bicycle as a crutch/aid to help me walk to work on one particular Sat morning as roads were simply glazed over with sheets of ice. The distance in question is 3 miles which I'd normally cycle in approx 15mins. Must have taken me an hour in temps of -10 degrees Celsius. I for one relish the thought of mother nature dishing out more of the same but the pessimist in me tells me it just ain't gonna happen, at least not this winter. I've no foundation for stating this other than noticing how this past few weeks the Azores high seems to be playing a relatively prominent role like it unfortunately did for almost all of last winter. Only a mere observation on my part of course. Please tell me I've got it oh so wrong :-)

[Met4Cast]

Come on WMD everyone is allowed an opinion...just as someone on there was singing your praises! Judging and Criticizing a forum on 1 post is a bit hard and slightly arrogant if you don't mind me saying.

"Madden has an impressive record" is more of a statement, than an opinion

[sebastiaan1973]

Weather Services International: Relatively Mild and Wet Period Expected in Western Europe

Climate Models and Ocean Temperature Patterns Suggest a General Lack of North Atlantic Blocking during Late Autumn and Early Winter

Andover, MA, September 24, 2012 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the upcoming period (October-December) to average slightly higher than normal across most regions, with the exception of parts of far southeastern Europe.

“As we head further into autumn, trends in the climate models are for a generally mild and wet period across western Europe, with any below-normal temperatures confined to parts of southern and eastern Europe†said Dr. Todd Crawford, WSI Chief Meteorologist. “Further, climate models are suggesting a lack of significant North Atlantic blocking (negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO) as we head deeper into autumn. While it is still a few weeks too early to issue a proper winter forecast, our preliminary analysis suggests that blocking (and associated cold weather) may be fairly rare, especially early in the winter.â€

In October, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal

UK* – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland* – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland* – Cooler than normal

In November, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

In December, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

http://wsi.com/f4929e77-a7e9-4c8e-8f0a-63dfaa78e708/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

[Methuselah]

Don't forget Piers Corbyn, what's he saying?

Yes, but he can always it's a solar sausage what done it!

[Nights King]

Weather Services International: Relatively Mild and Wet Period Expected in Western Europe

Climate Models and Ocean Temperature Patterns Suggest a General Lack of North Atlantic Blocking during Late Autumn and Early Winter

Andover, MA, September 24, 2012 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the upcoming period (October-December) to average slightly higher than normal across most regions, with the exception of parts of far southeastern Europe.

“As we head further into autumn, trends in the climate models are for a generally mild and wet period across western Europe, with any below-normal temperatures confined to parts of southern and eastern Europe†said Dr. Todd Crawford, WSI Chief Meteorologist. “Further, climate models are suggesting a lack of significant North Atlantic blocking (negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO) as we head deeper into autumn. While it is still a few weeks too early to issue a proper winter forecast, our preliminary analysis suggests that blocking (and associated cold weather) may be fairly rare, especially early in the winter.â€

In October, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal

UK* – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland* – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland* – Cooler than normal

In November, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

In December, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

http://wsi.com/f4929...ase-details.htm

Not bias at all but its clearly going to be an arctic winter, absolute drible they have no a clue... Bin

[sebastiaan1973]

UKMO and WSI seem to contradict in their long term prediction.

[bluearmy]

so wsi say a lack of n atlantic blocking for the final quarter of the year whilst exeter say that there is more than an average chance of n atlantic blocking. you pays your money ..........

[Cloud 10]

Hi all, totally new to this as I've only signed up today. Have always had a passion/obsession for extreme weather so I've little doubt that I'm in good company at long last. To give you all an example of how passionate I am about wicked weather, during the first freeze of 09/10 I used my bicycle as a crutch/aid to help me walk to work on one particular Sat morning as roads were simply glazed over with sheets of ice. The distance in question is 3 miles which I'd normally cycle in approx 15mins. Must have taken me an hour in temps of -10 degrees Celsius. I for one relish the thought of mother nature dishing out more of the same but the pessimist in me tells me it just ain't gonna happen, at least not this winter. I've no foundation for stating this other than noticing how this past few weeks the Azores high seems to be playing a relatively prominent role like it unfortunately did for almost all of last winter. Only a mere observation on my part of course. Please tell me I've got it oh so wrong :-)

Welcome to the forum!

[Newberryone]

Cheers Cloud 10