Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Nope, that's just upper temperatures, it could be completely dry but it'll be very cold. However, the colder the uppers the higher the chance of convection from the North Sea bringing heavy snow showers, but it doesn't guarantee snowfall

Yeah, except off that particular chart winds are NW, Stockport in for a metre of snow, thankfully pure fantasy

[Methuselah]

I'm thinking that the NW server is more likely to get struck by lightning (six times in three minutes') - than any of us ever seeing any of those charts verified?

[EML Network]

The same site which got last winter completely wrong.

It's comments like that which make some people give up...I've read through the ''Initial thought's / prelimenary forecast'' and found it to be a very well thought out and presented article...rather than having a pop, why don't you try and make your own forecast ??

Edited September 22, 2012 by EML Network

[EML Network]

One thing I have noticed with the CFS, is that it's been consistently showing a Northerly incursion mid way through November, with the -8 to -12 uppers coming down the spine of the country and then consistently it's been showing a quite rapid warm up as we head into December.

the CFS normally sways wildly from one extreme to another when looking so far ahead and I'm quite amazed by it's consistency over the past week.

Needless to say it's trivial at best to be looking at things this far out, especially when you consider that this Sunday's outcome still hasn't been completely nailed on and it's less than 24 hours away !!

Something worth bearing in mind !!

The other thing about snow, is that it's notoriously hard to forecast exactly where snow will fall, one needs to have all the boxes ticked...you could have snow falling a few miles away but if your dew points aren't below freezing you'll get either slush or rain..and a typical example of that was in Feb this year, where I live we had slush which turned into rain and yet not 500 metres up the road and about 50 metres higher up in elevation it had all fallen as snow !!

Will be interesting to see if there will be any snow falling this coming week over the Scottish Mountains, should that be the case I would expect blizzard conditions on the tops of the Cairngorn's for example ?

[Robbie Garrett]

Interestingly, the CFS got this Summer almost 100% correct as well as the majority of Spring. The CFS is there for a reason, it does a pretty good job IMHO. It's only the short-term stuff that it is not good for, but that's why it's a long-range forecast model not a short

[Methuselah]

It's comments like that which make some people give up...I've read through the ''Initial thought's / prelimenary forecast'' and found it to be a very well thought out and presented article...rather than having a pop, why don't you try and make your own forecast ??

On the other hand, mightn't it encourage them to do better?

[BornFromTheVoid]

I've been doing a little analysis today and have found some interesting bits. I'll do a more detailed post during the next week, but for the moment, here's a graph of the annual sea ice extent minima and the following winter CET, both de-trended from 1979-2011.

[Moomin71]

One thing I have noticed with the CFS, is that it's been consistently showing a Northerly incursion mid way through November, with the -8 to -12 uppers coming down the spine of the country and then consistently it's been showing a quite rapid warm up as we head into December.

the CFS normally sways wildly from one extreme to another when looking so far ahead and I'm quite amazed by it's consistency over the past week.

Needless to say it's trivial at best to be looking at things this far out, especially when you consider that this Sunday's outcome still hasn't been completely nailed on and it's less than 24 hours away !!

At the risk of inflaming things, but isn't that exactly what the models were showing all the way through Nov and Dec 2010? Short term severe cold breaking down from the west, but the reality was that the breakdwon kept getting pushed back and back in the models and in reality (obviously).

Very much looking forward to the start thread re-opening in Oct.

M

[Methuselah]

And here are some words of wisdom: http://weatheraction.com/

[UV-RAY]

I've been doing a little analysis today and have found some interesting bits. I'll do a more detailed post during the next week, but for the moment, here's a graph of the annual sea ice extent minima and the following winter CET, both de-trended from 1979-2011.

I think the sea ice extent is the wild card for this winter, no one really knows just how it will impact our weather come this winter, if at all. It certainly can't be discounted though.

[UV-RAY]

And here are some words of wisdom: http://weatheraction.com/

I think if Piers was less aggressive in his posting style and more open to scrutiny of his own forecast, then he may not get such a rabid response. I do feel he is onto something with his forecasts, but they are far from perfect.

I do have a soft spot for Joe B though and his stance on the theory that shall remain nameless ( for fear of going way off topic, again ). He does at least admit to getting it wrong, unlike Piers.

Edited September 22, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[Methuselah]

I think the sea ice extent is the wild card for this winter, no one really knows just how it will impact our weather come this winter, if at all. It certainly can't be discounted though.

You beat me too it!

[UV-RAY]

I can read minds, be afraid, be very afraid!

[bobbydog]

right. further to my post on the PDO a couple of days ago, i posted this chart-

i looked up snowy UK winters and found this- http://www.netweathe...r-history;sess=

as i previously said, the CET can often be thrown out by a mild month, therefore what we might call a good winter, with heavy snowfalls, might not show up on the statistics. so using that data alone, it will not necessarily show a correlation to the PDO. however, using the above link, i found that the 'best' winters, were on the whole (though not exclusively) during negative PDO years. some were in positive periods.

the point i am trying to make, is that although there are many factors which need to be in place for a cold, snowy winter, the PDO (negative phase) seems to play a major part. it by no means says any particular winter will be cold or snowy but it appears to be one of the most important 'building blocks' to have in place. (and apparently, it is!) IF all of the other factors play ball, then we could see a decent winter.

at this point though, its a matter of 'wait and see'

Edited September 22, 2012 by bobbydog

[Met4Cast]

I've been doing a little analysis today and have found some interesting bits. I'll do a more detailed post during the next week, but for the moment, here's a graph of the annual sea ice extent minima and the following winter CET, both de-trended from 1979-2011.

Definitely seems to be some type of if one were to take what that graph shows in isolation, looking forward to your post! I just love when a new theory comes out and studies begin on how it can impact our weather!

right. further to my post on the PDO a couple of days ago, i posted this chart-

i looked up snowy UK winters and found this- http://www.netweathe...r-history;sess=

as i previously said, the CET can often be thrown out by a mild month, therefore what we might call a good winter, with heavy snowfalls, might not show up on the statistics. so using that data alone, it will not necessarily show a correlation to the PDO. however, using the above link, i found that the 'best' winters, were on the whole (though not exclusively) during negative PDO years. some were in positive periods.

the point i am trying to make, is that although there are many factors which need to be in place for a cold, snowy winter, the PDO (negative phase) seems to play a major part. it by no means says any particular winter will be cold or snowy but it appears to be one of the most important 'building blocks' to have in place. (and apparently, it is!) IF all of the other factors play ball, then we could see a decent winter.

at this point though, its a matter of 'wait and see'

What about winters during a -PDO and a +AMO which is what we're in at the moment? The difference in sea temperatures on a scale like that must surely have an effect on our weather in some way or another, of course not the ONLY factors but the more we understand about each factor, the better we can begin to predict seasonal weather

[Methuselah]

I can read minds, be afraid, be very afraid!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZ71CQiDBpY

[bobbydog]

Definitely seems to be some type of if one were to take what that graph shows in isolation, looking forward to your post! I just love when a new theory comes out and studies begin on how it can impact our weather!

What about winters during a -PDO and a +AMO which is what we're in at the moment? The difference in sea temperatures on a scale like that must surely have an effect on our weather in some way or another, of course not the ONLY factors but the more we understand about each factor, the better we can begin to predict seasonal weather

i honestly don't know. it would be great if someone could find the stats on all the important factors (i'm still learning myself, so i'm not yet sure of what i should be looking for) if we could find stats on all of these factors and apply them retrospectively to the 'good' winters, then we could tentatively have a rough idea of any potential winter to come.

again, (for anyone reading with hope) we can have all the pieces in place but it might not happen. on the other hand, if they are there, then chances increase dramatically.... we can all hope...

[johnholmes]

It has to be said again, no offence meant but I have lost count how many times I have tried to explain this. No one, neither individual or centre, either amateur or professional has yet come up with sufficient evidence to be able to use it to link with any past winter being cold/severe or whatever, nor with the opposite mild or very mild. Therefore the prospect of accurate predictions, for the time being, remains small.

Various folk and centres are doing all kinds of research, as shown in news items about the UK Met O and its 'new' model for the higher atmosphere. Whether that may help to bring a break through in predicting future winters we simply do not know.

For the time being there is no understood link or links that can accurately predict a season ahead, spring, summer, autumn or winter.

Of course now and then centres or individuals do predict fairly accurately for one winter/season but NOT consistently.

Edited September 22, 2012 by johnholmes

[Met4Cast]

It has to be said again, no offence meant but I have lost count how many times I have tried to explain this. No one, neither individual or centre, either amateur or professional has yet come up with sufficient evidence to be able to use it to link with any past winter being cold/severe or whatever, nor with the opposite mild or very mild. Therefore the prospect of accurate predictions, for the time being, remains small.

Various folk and centres are doing all kinds of research, as shown in news items about the UK Met O and its 'new' model for the higher atmosphere. Whether that may help to bring a break through in predicting future winters we simply do not know.

For the time being there is no understood link or links that can accurately predict a season ahead, spring, summer, autumn or winter.

Of course now and then centres or individuals do predict fairly accurately for one winter/season but NOT consistently.

From what I have read, no one has said there IS a link, but merely speculating at possible links and looking at various different factors to see whether a mild or cold winter had a higher chance of occurring during a particular phase of a particular factor, nothing wrong with that. If we all sat around going "there's no understood link that can accurately predict the season ahead" we'd never make any advancements

[BornFromTheVoid]

right. further to my post on the PDO a couple of days ago, i posted this chart-

i looked up snowy UK winters and found this- http://www.netweathe...r-history;sess=

as i previously said, the CET can often be thrown out by a mild month, therefore what we might call a good winter, with heavy snowfalls, might not show up on the statistics. so using that data alone, it will not necessarily show a correlation to the PDO. however, using the above link, i found that the 'best' winters, were on the whole (though not exclusively) during negative PDO years. some were in positive periods.

the point i am trying to make, is that although there are many factors which need to be in place for a cold, snowy winter, the PDO (negative phase) seems to play a major part. it by no means says any particular winter will be cold or snowy but it appears to be one of the most important 'building blocks' to have in place. (and apparently, it is!) IF all of the other factors play ball, then we could see a decent winter.

at this point though, its a matter of 'wait and see'

Rather than the CET, maybe correlating the PDO with some kind of winter index might work better? Like the type Weather-history does for Manchester?

Also, this graph may be of some use to you!

http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/2005/2005GL022478.shtml

[Methuselah]

From what I have read, no one has said there IS a link, but merely speculating at possible links and looking at various different factors to see whether a mild or cold winter had a higher chance of occurring during a particular phase of a particular factor, nothing wrong with that. If we all sat around going "there's no understood link that can accurately predict the season ahead" we'd never make any advancements

Either that, or we look for factors that do show a link?

[Met4Cast]

Rather than the CET, maybe correlating the PDO with some kind of winter index might work better? Like the type Weather-history does for Manchester?

Also, this graph may be of some use to you!

http://www.agu.org/j...5GL022478.shtml

What happened in the first 300 years on that graph to make the PDO remain in such a negative state for so long?!

[johnholmes]

From what I have read, no one has said there IS a link, but merely speculating at possible links and looking at various different factors to see whether a mild or cold winter had a higher chance of occurring during a particular phase of a particular factor, nothing wrong with that. If we all sat around going "there's no understood link that can accurately predict the season ahead" we'd never make any advancements

Is that what I posted?

you seem to have ignored this part?

Various folk and centres are doing all kinds of research, as shown in news items about the UK Met O and its 'new' model for the higher atmosphere

I am certainly NOT suggesting 'we all sit around'. As a trained scientist that would be foreign to my basic instincts, but I repeat at the moment in spite of intensive efforts nothing has yet come up. But we will keep trying.

Are you having a go?

Edited September 22, 2012 by johnholmes

[Met4Cast]

Either that, or we look for factors that do show a link?

How can we do that when we don't yet know which factors DO show a link? You have to look at all different factors to find a link, isn't that what various people have been doing above?

Is that what I posted?

Hey, you're the one that seems to feel the need to keep repeating yourself whenever someone questions a possible link to something and our weather

[johnholmes]

How can we do that when we don't yet know which factors DO show a link? You have to look at all different factors to find a link, isn't that what various people have been doing above?

Hey, you're the one that seems to feel the need to keep repeating yourself whenever someone questions a possible link to something and our weather

sorry Daniel we seem at cross purposes I'll stop posting comments in here. I will simply carry on trying to find something that might be the key.