Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2

[legritter]

evening all , i dont want to get seriouse about the coming winter but would like to put foreward a few Personal views .AS a very keen Amateur meteorologist and an EX ROY meteorological society Fellow i have had the pleasure of meeting many Scientists and attending many meetings not just in this country but in canada and america and europe .Winter as always interested me especially cold and snowy ones .the bottom line after discussing long range forecasts with these very educated people as always been [iTS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT 2/3 MONTHS AHEAD ] . iv recently come back from canada ,my friends cousin worked for canadian weather services and as studied past winter weather across the northern hemisphere and he maintains this winter could go either way .but he did say ,which iv heard others say ,gone are the total mild and windy winters of late 80s /90s early this century etc ,and welcome back some colder winters ,so although of late we have had some good wintry spells ,we have not had a long cold snowy winter .so the chances are fair in my opinion this winter .also dont get thinking because of ARCTIC Sea ice loss that this winter will be mild ,it only needs a good spell of intense high pressure and temp will plummet .another good pointer ,wolf spotters in northern canada and other northern hemisphere countrys are already reporting wolves heading much further south ,do they know intense high pressure is coming to the arctic and further south where low pressure could be will produce the snow ,easy for them to trap their prey .this happened on a big scale back in the 70s ,when we have more understanding of the upper atmosphere and how the suns energy affects our plannet im sure that we will be making better longe range forecasts .severall winters back in the 1500s produced for north west europe absolute frigid weather from nov to april ,yet inbetween ridiculously long very mild winters ,absolute anything could be around the next corner ,did we predict this late spring and summer apart from august would be so bad back in march /or december 2010 would be so cold and snowy back in october 2010 .headlines in papers mid jan 1947 ,worst of the winter could be over ,that will certainly help out on the fuel shortages after the war ,1963 winter in n/west europe expected to be normal ,both winters a living hell for some . as they say ,closer to show time we will know ,cheers Legritter .

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

I am going to try and experiment this winter, which is to do a Winter forecast based on nothing other than 'foresight' or 'Gut feeling' after winter I'll then compare it with other Long Range forecasts made at the same time which use computer models and compare how well each perform...a little experiment :-)...I'll post my findings in March

I've posted my thoughts about October and November on another site, and will find a suitable place to post my 'Winter Forecast'' at the end of October on here

I hope no one will mind the fact that I won't use a single chart for my ''forecast'' nor will I be able to ''Back it up'' with any data or evidence, right now I feel that December might be milder than average, for the vast majority but it's just an initial thought at this stage.

I can not wait, gut feeling are as likely as models at this stage.

[The watcher]

Ah there's going to be so many people buzzing with excitement this year. It may get all too much and some might start exploding, myself included lol.

A link to a winter forecast;

http://ukweather.wor.../winter-201213/

I don't know who the author(s) is/are, but I've read through it and it's a well presented forecast.

Daniel Smith is the Author. Not sure what site from though.

[cyclonic happiness]

There's a strong correlation between birds flying south when the sun gets lower and cooler in the sky in Autumn every year.

Whereas at the same time the ice and snow advances south?

I suggest we use 'gut' feelings a lot more when trying to forecast for a season which adheres to no rule but chaos.

And seeing as we're just as much a part of that system as the birds that seem to get it right every year, why not?

[Catacol]

Anyone heard anything more from Big Joe laminate floori from Weatherbell??I used to enjoy his enthusiasm when he was with Accuweather but now he has moved to a fee paying company you don't get to see much of his views on UK and Europe.I know 2 years ago he was indicating winters from 2012-2014 could be harsh for UK but haven't heard anything from him.

Look forward to hearing from those who may have info.In the meantime and in Big Joe's words,"Enjoy the weather as it's the only weather you have got".For enjoyers of wild weather here in UK it will be an interesting 24hours.

He put out a dramatic tweet a few days ago warning us Brits to beware because a bitter winter was on its way. Said the temp profile of the N Atlantic was similar to that around Alaska which has caused recent recurring cold over there.

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

He put out a dramatic tweet a few days ago warning us Brits to beware because a bitter winter was on its way. Said the temp profile of the N Atlantic was similar to that around Alaska which has caused recent recurring cold over there.

I hope he is right for once

[feb1991blizzard]

Tomorrow, if time permits, I may have a look at the relationship of ENSO and our winters, by using MEI values.

I have looked very briefly before, i still have not fully sussed out how to use the compositing site yet but i found a definate correlation between La Nina 's and mild Bartlett driven winters but when included less strong Nina's then the bias was far less, maybe i should have used the MEI values as opposed to just the SST anomalies.

Does anyone agree with me on here that even strong Nino's are not as bad as strong Nina events too as even when the PV is strong and a strong zonal flow occurs that the SW to NE angle of the jet is generally more pronounced with Ninas and thus more topplers and PM incursions are likely in EL Nino winters.

[SMU]

I remember posting this a few years ago so ive done it again to wet the appetite for Winter-

Its really THAT significant however............

Earliest date that the -4c isotherm crosses into Scotland mainland & then England as the second date-

Its clear that for England September is very rare- this is because the expansion of the -4C line doesnt really get down to around 70N ( in terms of average spread until the 15th of Sept, to get that -4c isotherm to Scotland you need a strong fast pulse of CAA, but to get it into teh UK the 'scoop' of cold air needs to be bigger & the CAA needs to be even faster because of moderation across the land & sea-

2011 20th OCT 20th OCT

2010 20th OCT 20th OCT

2009 9th OCT 30th NOV

2008 3rd OCT 29th OCT

2007 18th SEP 26th SEP

2006 1st NOV 1st NOV

2005 13th NOV 13th NOV

2004 13th NOV 13th NOV

2003 23rd SEP 5th OCT

2002 18th OCT 19th OCT

2001 5th NOV 5th NOV

as as we can see the earliest year @ 2007- the latest year 2004/2005-

Reviewing the years it seems that there is 'generally' 1 polar outbreak south in the first 2 weeks of OCtober, if this doesnt fit the bill then another bit at teh end/ start of NOV-

If you was doing LONDON probably another 10 days later than the MEAN average-

So if you take the -4c line is the first time you COULD see snow ( i KNOW its a crude way) then

these dates are abiut right-

Scotland 7th oct-14th OCT

Midlands 21st OCT -28OCT

London ~ 7th NOV.....

THis year nothing so far

Edited September 25, 2012 by Steve Murr

[Seasonal Trim]

Here is a interesting yet less technical website.

http://www.snow-watc...php?f=20&t=1302

(forum)

It is a great site. not as technical as you say, but its not just about that.

Edited September 25, 2012 by Twista

[Seasonal Trim]

I'd just like to add also, I wasn't "judging" the forum in anyway whatsoever

Read the first post and closed the tab the second I read "Madden has an impressive record"

The quote "Judging a book by its cover" springs to mind.

Edited September 25, 2012 by Twista

[sebastiaan1973]

another for the bin, to join vogan & madden + Piers.....

ANYONE on the internet can post the above- & as Gav has pointed out the MET office model is strongly towards blocking as is the CFS & the Jamstec in the middle- so what are these global models.

for someone whos supposed to be chief meteorlogist then you would certainly hope for something better commentary & forecast wise-

S

I intend to agree with you.

They earn lots of money with their forecasts, mainly in the USA. Presentation about the way they make their predictions.

Edited September 25, 2012 by sebastiaan1973

[bobbydog]

The quote "Judging a book by its cover" springs to mind.

not if you've already read the book.....

[garbagebags]

Hi guys,

I'm relatively new here so I will introduce myself again.

I have no meteorological training or experience I'm afraid. I am aware of the basics of the weather (pressures, NAO, AO, troughs, blocking etc etc) but on a very very amateur scale.

I won't try and hide it... I have a cold bias! Not that I will be making any predictions (that would be obtuse) but I do hope it's cold and snowy.

At this early stage all I am really doing is watching he snow and ice cover charts in the northern hemisphere.

What I would like to do is start having a look at the stratosphere temperature charts but I can't find them. Does anyone have a link to these charts? Do they even exist?

I have to keep myself grounded being a snow lover and like I said at this very early stage I think looking into anything else would be pointless.

Kind regards,

[Suburban Streamer]

At this ealy stage all I am really doing is watching he snow and ice cover charts in the northern hemisphere.

What I would like to do is start having a look at the stratosphere temperature charts but I can't find them. Does anyone have a link to these charts? Do they even exist?

Welcome

Last year's strat thread has all the links you could possibly wish for....plus several more which will make your head hurt lol

[Rollo]

Hi guys,

I'm relatively new here so I will introduce myself again.

I have no meteorological training or experience I'm afraid. I am aware of the basics of the weather (pressures, NAO, AO, troughs, blocking etc etc) but on a very very amateur scale.

I won't try and hide it... I have a cold bias! Not that I will be making any predictions (that would be obtuse) but I do hope it's cold and snowy.

At this early stage all I am really doing is watching he snow and ice cover charts in the northern hemisphere.

What I would like to do is start having a look at the stratosphere temperature charts but I can't find them. Does anyone have a link to these charts? Do they even exist?

I have to keep myself grounded being a snow lover and like I said at this very early stage I think looking into anything else would be pointless.

Kind regards,

Hi Garbagebags,I am sure you will like it here ,their are several very knowledable posters such as John Holmes,Steve Murr ,Blast from the Past Gibby Weather Watcher,Old Met Man,Roger Smith and in particular the stratospheric warmings thread by G.P. and Chiomaniac ,read and learn and do not be afraid to post an uneducated forecast it it has some foundation,regards R. Edited September 25, 2012 by Rollo

[johnholmes]

Hi guys,

I'm relatively new here so I will introduce myself again.

I have no meteorological training or experience I'm afraid. I am aware of the basics of the weather (pressures, NAO, AO, troughs, blocking etc etc) but on a very very amateur scale.

I won't try and hide it... I have a cold bias! Not that I will be making any predictions (that would be obtuse) but I do hope it's cold and snowy.

At this early stage all I am really doing is watching he snow and ice cover charts in the northern hemisphere.

What I would like to do is start having a look at the stratosphere temperature charts but I can't find them. Does anyone have a link to these charts? Do they even exist?

I have to keep myself grounded being a snow lover and like I said at this very early stage I think looking into anything else would be pointless.

Kind regards,

yes welcome as Rollo has already said.

Don't be afraid to post your ideas, do read toher folk, you will lsoon learn to sort the 'wheat from the chaff' so to speak!

Have a look in the Net Wx Guides as a start for learning about all kinds of things.

Never be afraid to ask questions, there is always someone who can answer you, once you are able use the pm facility if you want to do it privately, I'm always happy to try and help.

John

[Glacier Point]

I have looked very briefly before, i still have not fully sussed out how to use the compositing site yet but i found a definate correlation between La Nina 's and mild Bartlett driven winters but when included less strong Nina's then the bias was far less, maybe i should have used the MEI values as opposed to just the SST anomalies.

Does anyone agree with me on here that even strong Nino's are not as bad as strong Nina events too as even when the PV is strong and a strong zonal flow occurs that the SW to NE angle of the jet is generally more pronounced with Ninas and thus more topplers and PM incursions are likely in EL Nino winters.

I wouldn't be banking on this winter being an El Nino one. The -PDO is agressively strong and has full atmospheric coupling. We can see this in the strong residual SST warm anomalies in the Sea of Japan and in the NW Atlantic off Newfoundland. These anomalies are strong and +ve zonal wind anomalies across the tropics extremely weak. That has severely dented the probability of a warm ENSO phase this winter, indeed the prospects of us going back into Nina phase in the spring have increased over the last week or so.

Initial analysis of the QBO suggests a weaker than normal polar vortex this winter, with an interesting focus on increased probability of a disruption of the vortex late November or early December and again around New Year. The profile of hemispheric SSTAs is also pointing to a -ve height anomaly across Europe. All eyes on October NH snowcover. Should come in above average if we are on course for a cold winter.

[Radiating Dendrite]

I wouldn't be banking on this winter being an El Nino one. The -PDO is agressively strong and has full atmospheric coupling. We can see this in the strong residual SST warm anomalies in the Sea of Japan and in the NW Atlantic off Newfoundland. These anomalies are strong and +ve zonal wind anomalies across the tropics extremely weak. That has severely dented the probability of a warm ENSO phase this winter, indeed the prospects of us going back into Nina phase in the spring have increased over the last week or so.

Initial analysis of the QBO suggests a weaker than normal polar vortex this winter, with an interesting focus on increased probability of a disruption of the vortex late November or early December and again around New Year. The profile of hemispheric SSTAs is also pointing to a -ve height anomaly across Europe. All eyes on October NH snowcover. Should come in above average if we are on course for a cold winter.

You sound optimistic for a cold winter then GP from reading your post?

Certainly a colder one when compared to last year?

[Methuselah]

Hi guys,

I'm relatively new here so I will introduce myself again.

I have no meteorological training or experience I'm afraid. I am aware of the basics of the weather (pressures, NAO, AO, troughs, blocking etc etc) but on a very very amateur scale.

I won't try and hide it... I have a cold bias! Not that I will be making any predictions (that would be obtuse) but I do hope it's cold and snowy.

At this early stage all I am really doing is watching he snow and ice cover charts in the northern hemisphere.

What I would like to do is start having a look at the stratosphere temperature charts but I can't find them. Does anyone have a link to these charts? Do they even exist?

I have to keep myself grounded being a snow lover and like I said at this very early stage I think looking into anything else would be pointless.

Kind regards,

Welcome aboard, gabagebags...You'll soon accustomed to the Flat Earth idea!

[Don]

You sound optimistic for a cold winter then GP from reading your post?

Certainly a colder one when compared to last year?

Hopefully. Lets hope the NH snowcover gets its act together soon and starts to rapidly increase as we move into October!

[bobbydog]

I wouldn't be banking on this winter being an El Nino one. The -PDO is agressively strong and has full atmospheric coupling. We can see this in the strong residual SST warm anomalies in the Sea of Japan and in the NW Atlantic off Newfoundland. These anomalies are strong and +ve zonal wind anomalies across the tropics extremely weak. That has severely dented the probability of a warm ENSO phase this winter, indeed the prospects of us going back into Nina phase in the spring have increased over the last week or so.

Initial analysis of the QBO suggests a weaker than normal polar vortex this winter, with an interesting focus on increased probability of a disruption of the vortex late November or early December and again around New Year. The profile of hemispheric SSTAs is also pointing to a -ve height anomaly across Europe. All eyes on October NH snowcover. Should come in above average if we are on course for a cold winter.

careful G.P. - that was nearly a ramp!!

[Gavin Hannah]

Speaking of which, haven't had any take offs the last few days. May have to start some Ramp Repair work.

[Snowstorm1]

1963 is a taster compared to whats coming this winter....

[cheeky_monkey]

I have looked very briefly before, i still have not fully sussed out how to use the compositing site yet but i found a definate correlation between La Nina 's and mild Bartlett driven winters but when included less strong Nina's then the bias was far less, maybe i should have used the MEI values as opposed to just the SST anomalies.

Does anyone agree with me on here that even strong Nino's are not as bad as strong Nina events too as even when the PV is strong and a strong zonal flow occurs that the SW to NE angle of the jet is generally more pronounced with Ninas and thus more topplers and PM incursions are likely in EL Nino winters.

But the la Nina of 2010-11 was one of strongest on record and resulted in the coldest Dec in the UK in 100 years...i remember 20 years ago la Nina being trumpeted as a good thing for cold winters and el Nino as bad..now it seems to have swung somewhat the other way.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The latest ENSO outlook is here http://www.cpc.ncep....s-fcsts-web.pdf

ENSO neutral conditions, with a short period of borderline El Nino looks most likely for the Winter and into next Spring.