Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2

[SnowRules]

So.. what sort of winter is expected?

[Boro_andy]

Nobody knows yet that they can say with any real confidence.

There are a indicators and/or pieces of the puzzle falling into place for it be cold however, nothing is nailed.

Edited September 24, 2012 by Boro_andy

[stewfox]

Come on WMD everyone is allowed an opinion...just as someone on there was singing your praises! Judging and Criticizing a forum on 1 post is a bit hard and slightly arrogant if you don't mind me saying.

Its the same every year, knock someone elses forecast, a lot easier to do a 1 liner.

If these people set up their own websites published their own detailed 3 months forecast and like Piers Corbyn make money from it, I would respect them.

Edited September 24, 2012 by stewfox

[cyclonic happiness]

Hi all, totally new to this as I've only signed up today. Have always had a passion/obsession for extreme weather so I've little doubt that I'm in good company at long last. To give you all an example of how passionate I am about wicked weather, during the first freeze of 09/10 I used my bicycle as a crutch/aid to help me walk to work on one particular Sat morning as roads were simply glazed over with sheets of ice. The distance in question is 3 miles which I'd normally cycle in approx 15mins. Must have taken me an hour in temps of -10 degrees Celsius. I for one relish the thought of mother nature dishing out more of the same but the pessimist in me tells me it just ain't gonna happen, at least not this winter. I've no foundation for stating this other than noticing how this past few weeks the Azores high seems to be playing a relatively prominent role like it unfortunately did for almost all of last winter. Only a mere observation on my part of course. Please tell me I've got it oh so wrong :-)

Welcome to the madness that is Netweather, you'll understand why I say this once a cold spell and snow starts to appear on the models lol

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

So.. what sort of winter is expected?

A cold one and hopefully with snow (lots of it!)

With emphasis on the hopefully.

[Ninman]

One thing I have noticed on the CFS is that it is consistantly showing for the last week upper 850 values of -8 to -12 at the end of January/early feb. Obviously it's months away so I won't read too much in to it, but it looks promising for cold weather. I wouldn't be dissapointed if it didnt snow, so long as it is cold......It would be nice to have a season that reflects its typical self! 16c in December 2011 and 13c in Summer 2012 just feels wrong!

[Met4Cast]

Its the same every year, knock someone elses forecast, a lot easier to do a 1 liner.

If these people set up their own websites published their own detailed 3 months forecast and like Piers Corbyn make money from it, I would respect them.

I wasn't "knocking" anyones forecast? Madden never backs any of his forecasts up with graphs or charts, from what I can tell the sole basis of all his forecasts are solar activity and the gulf stream, and since the gulf stream is ticking along fine you can already knock that off for having an effect on our weather, nor does Madden ever admit when a forecast has gone wrong, as I've already explained further up

I'd just like to add also, I wasn't "judging" the forum in anyway whatsoever

Edited September 24, 2012 by Daniel AKA WMD

[bobbydog]

Its the same every year, knock someone elses forecast, a lot easier to do a 1 liner.

If these people set up their own websites published their own detailed 3 months forecast and like Piers Corbyn make money from it, I would respect them.

just out of interest, who are "these people"?

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

I wasn't "knocking" anyones forecast? Madden never backs any of his forecasts up with graphs or charts, from what I can tell the sole basis of all his forecasts are solar activity and the gulf stream, and since the gulf stream is ticking along fine you can already knock that off for having an effect on our weather, nor does Madden ever admit when a forecast has gone wrong, as I've already explained further up

I'd just like to add also, I wasn't "judging" the forum in anyway whatsoever

I back you up it is not a forecast until you say it is a forecast.

[bobbydog]

Madden displayed his evidence of "the worst winter ever".......

[BornFromTheVoid]

As I mentioned at the end of last weekend, I started doing some correlations and stuff between some of the different teleconnections (MEI, PDO, etc), things like sea ice, sunspot numbers and of course, with the winter CET (Dec-Feb). I’ve gotten through quite a bit of it now, and thought I’d post up some results. So today will be a look at the PDO.

I’ll start off by saying that these are all very simple analysis, from someone who’s just learning the stuff, so don’t take it all too seriously and feel free to point out any mistakes I’ve made!

Anyway, the first things I looked at in detail were correlations between the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and the Winter CET.

The PDO is defined by principal component analysis, and is recognised by a reverse "C" shape of -ve sea surface temperature anomalies in the north Pacific stretching from the Bering sea, down the US west coast and into the tropics when the PDO index is -ve, with the opposite occuring when the PDO index is +ve. Each phase appears to last several decades at a time, though going back before 1900, things are a little less clear.

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/

Data for the PDO can be found here http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest

Annual PDO

The correlations I looked at were for PDO annual values and CET winter values from 1900-2011.

What is clear is that individual annual PDO values have little to no relevance when it comes to winters here. There is hardly any correlation at all, whether it be lagged, averaged over a few years, or whether the CET is de-trended or not. None of the correlations were significant.

Where the PDO does appear have an effect though is when you view it on a cyclic scale (in this case, as 30 year mean). There is then a clear relationship between a –ve phase of the PDO and an increased likelihood of colder than average winters. How one would wish to factor that into a long range forecast is up to them, but it would seem as though using the strength of the PDO at any given time is pointless, only the longer term phase that we’re currently in matters.

1 Year PDO & Winter CET ....................... 10 Year PDO & Winter CET ..................... 30 Year PDO & WInter CET

The reasons for this relationship? Well, plotting the winters following the lowest PDO value years, shows a reduction in upper zonal winds across the British Isles, as well as a tendency for stronger heights to the west and north of the UK, with very low heights across mainland Europe and into the Iberian Peninsula.

500hPa Heights, -ve PDO Years ........................... 300hPa Zonal Winds

This basically indicates a slightly southerly tracking jet with an increased likelihood of northern blocking, which is what you want for cold spells. While other factors will be at play to cause these patterns, I think it's safe to assume that the -ve PDO phase will also contribute to them. The fact that there is no correlation on a year to year basis suggests that PDO's influence in the North Atlantic is easily over-ridden by other factors, and that it's influence can only be discerned by looking at the longer term anomalies.

So, the PDO, in my opinion, not much good for short range forecasts, but handy for working out decadal trends! So considering we're currently 5 years into a -ve PDO phase, it's likely a good sign for cooler winters!

Tomorrow, if time permits, I may have a look at the relationship of ENSO and our winters, by using MEI values.

[Hotspur62]

Anyone heard anything more from Big Joe laminate floori from Weatherbell??I used to enjoy his enthusiasm when he was with Accuweather but now he has moved to a fee paying company you don't get to see much of his views on UK and Europe.I know 2 years ago he was indicating winters from 2012-2014 could be harsh for UK but haven't heard anything from him.

Look forward to hearing from those who may have info.In the meantime and in Big Joe's words,"Enjoy the weather as it's the only weather you have got".For enjoyers of wild weather here in UK it will be an interesting 24hours.

[Ninman]

As I mentioned at the end of last weekend, I started doing some correlations and stuff between some of the different teleconnections (MEI, PDO, etc), things like sea ice, sunspot numbers and of course, with the winter CET (Dec-Feb). I’ve gotten through quite a bit of it now, and thought I’d post up some results. So today will be a look at the PDO.

I’ll start off by saying that these are all very simple analysis, from someone who’s just learning the stuff, so don’t take it all too seriously and feel free to point out any mistakes I’ve made!

Anyway, the first things I looked at in detail were correlations between the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and the Winter CET.

The PDO is defined by principal component analysis, and is recognised by a reverse "C" shape of -ve sea surface temperature anomalies in the north Pacific stretching from the Bering sea, down the US west coast and into the tropics when the PDO index is -ve, with the opposite occuring when the PDO index is +ve. Each phase appears to last several decades at a time, though going back before 1900, things are a little less clear.

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/

Data for the PDO can be found here http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest

Annual PDO

The correlations I looked at were for PDO annual values and CET winter values from 1900-2011.

What is clear is that individual annual PDO values have little to no relevance when it comes to winters here. There is hardly any correlation at all, whether it be lagged, averaged over a few years, or whether the CET is de-trended or not. None of the correlations were significant.

Where the PDO does appear have an effect though is when you view it on a cyclic scale (in this case, as 30 year mean). There is then a clear relationship between a –ve phase of the PDO and an increased likelihood of colder than average winters. How one would wish to factor that into a long range forecast is up to them, but it would seem as though using the strength of the PDO at any given time is pointless, only the longer term phase that we’re currently in matters.

1 Year PDO & Winter CET ....................... 10 Year PDO & Winter CET ..................... 30 Year PDO & WInter CET

The reasons for this relationship? Well, plotting the winters following the lowest PDO value years, shows a reduction in upper zonal winds across the British Isles, as well as a tendency for stronger heights to the west and north of the UK, with very low heights across mainland Europe and into the Iberian Peninsula.

500hPa Heights, -ve PDO Years ........................... 300hPa Zonal Winds

This basically indicates a slightly southerly tracking jet with an increased likelihood of northern blocking, which is what you want for cold spells. While other factors will be at play to cause these patterns, I think it's safe to assume that the -ve PDO phase will also contribute to them. The fact that there is no correlation on a year to year basis suggests that PDO's influence in the North Atlantic is easily over-ridden by other factors, and that it's influence can only be discerned by looking at the longer term anomalies.

So, the PDO, in my opinion, not much good for short range forecasts, but handy for working out decadal trends! So considering we're currently 5 years into a -ve PDO phase, it's likely a good sign for cooler winters!

Tomorrow, if time permits, I may have a look at the relationship of ENSO and our winters, by using MEI values.

Good stuff!! I didn't really understand this before but you have put it in a clear and easy to understand way

Edited September 24, 2012 by Ninman

[bobbydog]

As I mentioned at the end of last weekend, I started doing some correlations and stuff between some of the different teleconnections (MEI, PDO, etc), things like sea ice, sunspot numbers and of course, with the winter CET (Dec-Feb). I’ve gotten through quite a bit of it now, and thought I’d post up some results. So today will be a look at the PDO.

I’ll start off by saying that these are all very simple analysis, from someone who’s just learning the stuff, so don’t take it all too seriously and feel free to point out any mistakes I’ve made!

Anyway, the first things I looked at in detail were correlations between the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and the Winter CET.

The PDO is defined by principal component analysis, and is recognised by a reverse "C" shape of -ve sea surface temperature anomalies in the north Pacific stretching from the Bering sea, down the US west coast and into the tropics when the PDO index is -ve, with the opposite occuring when the PDO index is +ve. Each phase appears to last several decades at a time, though going back before 1900, things are a little less clear.

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/

Data for the PDO can be found here http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest

Annual PDO

The correlations I looked at were for PDO annual values and CET winter values from 1900-2011.

What is clear is that individual annual PDO values have little to no relevance when it comes to winters here. There is hardly any correlation at all, whether it be lagged, averaged over a few years, or whether the CET is de-trended or not. None of the correlations were significant.

Where the PDO does appear have an effect though is when you view it on a cyclic scale (in this case, as 30 year mean). There is then a clear relationship between a –ve phase of the PDO and an increased likelihood of colder than average winters. How one would wish to factor that into a long range forecast is up to them, but it would seem as though using the strength of the PDO at any given time is pointless, only the longer term phase that we’re currently in matters.

1 Year PDO & Winter CET ....................... 10 Year PDO & Winter CET ..................... 30 Year PDO & WInter CET

The reasons for this relationship? Well, plotting the winters following the lowest PDO value years, shows a reduction in upper zonal winds across the British Isles, as well as a tendency for stronger heights to the west and north of the UK, with very low heights across mainland Europe and into the Iberian Peninsula.

500hPa Heights, -ve PDO Years ........................... 300hPa Zonal Winds

This basically indicates a slightly southerly tracking jet with an increased likelihood of northern blocking, which is what you want for cold spells. While other factors will be at play to cause these patterns, I think it's safe to assume that the -ve PDO phase will also contribute to them. The fact that there is no correlation on a year to year basis suggests that PDO's influence in the North Atlantic is easily over-ridden by other factors, and that it's influence can only be discerned by looking at the longer term anomalies.

So, the PDO, in my opinion, not much good for short range forecasts, but handy for working out decadal trends! So considering we're currently 5 years into a -ve PDO phase, it's likely a good sign for cooler winters!

Tomorrow, if time permits, I may have a look at the relationship of ENSO and our winters, by using MEI values.

great post BFTV, thats what i was trying to say a while back. the PDO is not an indicator of any given winter but the negative phase is a good 'building block' to start with. as you say, its good for trends and increases the chances of a cold winter, as long as all the other factors are in place

[stewfox]

I wasn't "knocking" anyones forecast? Madden never backs any of his forecasts up with graphs or charts, from what I can tell the sole basis of all his forecasts are solar activity and the gulf stream, and since the gulf stream is ticking along fine you can already knock that off for having an effect on our weather, nor does Madden ever admit when a forecast has gone wrong, as I've already explained further up

I'd just like to add also, I wasn't "judging" the forum in anyway whatsoever

If I came up with an accurate winter weather forcast for the UK 20 years in a row and based it on kenyan coca production variations, I would like to think people would at least try and look at the theory rather then say its rubbish. Most long term forcasts for specfic regions are basically 'poor'. Maybe a close study of stratospheric warming will lead us to be able to predict with more accuracy trends to colder European winters etc. However when I see comments such as 'whats the sun got to do with the weather' I still keep a open mind. Its good fun to see the crack pots maybe one will be right

Interesting Kenya coca production shows a 98% correlation with the CET figures. ( A correlation greater than 0.8 would be described as strong)

http://www.metoffice...t_mean_sort.txt

Correlation does NOT imply causation or a physical relationship of any kind but further study required..

Edited September 24, 2012 by stewfox

[snowstorm445]

The thing that annoys me about Madden the most is that he refuses to ever admit he got a forecast wrong, he'll twist the facts and say something like "it snowed in on the top of a Scottish Mountain so I was right" and quite a few people go along with it! Mark Vogan is another one that annoys me, but I do have respect for him because he does at least admit when a forecast goes wrong

Agreed. Madden is so remarkably arrogant in his forecast reviews, he is incredibly revisionist. Last winter was a complete disaster for him and he managed to sweep his failure under the carpet without even mentioning it, when he usually gloats about his apparent "successes" in his previous forecasts. I was so surprised at his forecast this year, not only because it was a carbon copy of last years, but he because he made no mention of his previous dire attempts at creating a winter forecast.

He has absolutely no credibility after last winter's fiasco.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Interesting Kenya coca production shows a 98% correlation with the CET figures. ( A correlation greater than 0.8 would be described as strong)

http://www.metoffice...t_mean_sort.txt

Correlation does NOT imply causation or a physical relationship of any kind but further study required..

But?

[bobbydog]

But?

aharrr!!!

[SMU]

Weather Services International: Relatively Mild and Wet Period Expected in Western Europe

Climate Models and Ocean Temperature Patterns Suggest a General Lack of North Atlantic Blocking during Late Autumn and Early Winter

Andover, MA, September 24, 2012 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the upcoming period (October-December) to average slightly higher than normal across most regions, with the exception of parts of far southeastern Europe.

“As we head further into autumn, trends in the climate models are for a generally mild and wet period across western Europe, with any below-normal temperatures confined to parts of southern and eastern Europe†said Dr. Todd Crawford, WSI Chief Meteorologist. “Further, climate models are suggesting a lack of significant North Atlantic blocking (negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO) as we head deeper into autumn. While it is still a few weeks too early to issue a proper winter forecast, our preliminary analysis suggests that blocking (and associated cold weather) may be fairly rare, especially early in the winter.â€

In October, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal

UK* – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland* – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland* – Cooler than normal

In November, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

In December, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

http://wsi.com/f4929...ase-details.htm

another for the bin, to join vogan & madden + Piers.....

ANYONE on the internet can post the above- & as Gav has pointed out the MET office model is strongly towards blocking as is the CFS & the Jamstec in the middle- so what are these global models.

for someone whos supposed to be chief meteorlogist then you would certainly hope for something better commentary & forecast wise-

S

Edited September 24, 2012 by Steve Murr

[EML Network]

I am going to try and experiment this winter, which is to do a Winter forecast based on nothing other than 'foresight' or 'Gut feeling' after winter I'll then compare it with other Long Range forecasts made at the same time which use computer models and compare how well each perform...a little experiment :-)...I'll post my findings in March

I've posted my thoughts about October and November on another site, and will find a suitable place to post my 'Winter Forecast'' at the end of October on here

I hope no one will mind the fact that I won't use a single chart for my ''forecast'' nor will I be able to ''Back it up'' with any data or evidence, right now I feel that December might be milder than average, for the vast majority but it's just an initial thought at this stage.

Edited September 24, 2012 by EML Network

[SMU]

& just to show how clueless the above is

i month difference, no change in pattern but contradictory comments-

24 august

“The combination of the emerging El Nino event and the cold North Pacific Ocean typically result in a lack of North Atlantic blocking and above-normal temperatures, especially across northern sections. Our early look at winter suggests that the best chances for below-normal temperatures will be in northeastern Europe and western Russia, while above-normal temperatures are favored across the Southeast

24 th sept

As we head further into autumn, trends in the climate models are for a generally mild and wet period across western Europe, with any below-normal temperatures confined to parts of southern and eastern Europe†said Dr. Todd Crawford, WSI Chief Meteorologist. “Further

[Met4Cast]

If I came up with an accurate winter weather forcast for the UK 20 years in a row and based it on kenyan coca production variations, I would like to think people would at least try and look at the theory rather then say its rubbish. Most long term forcasts for specfic regions are basically 'poor'. Maybe a close study of stratospheric warming will lead us to be able to predict with more accuracy trends to colder European winters etc. However when I see comments such as 'whats the sun got to do with the weather' I still keep a open mind. Its good fun to see the crack pots maybe one will be right

Agreed. 100%, but Madden hasn't come up with an accurate forecast for 2 years in a row, let alone 20 years, whilst there's growing evidence for solar activity having an effect on our weather, there are also a lot of other factors to consider. As for the Gulf Stream, since there is no sign of it slowing or shutting down, it's not going to have an effect on our weather and therefore cannot be used as a forecasting factor.

I encourage anyone to give long range forecasting a go, as long as they're open and honest about it when they're wrong I don't have a problem, it's when people like Madden then completely disregard a previous wrong forecast. Another thing, why does Madden never forecast an average winter? It's always an extremely cold one he goes for, every.single.year. Hes a sensationalist and wants to grab headlines, it really is as simple as that

[stewfox]

But?

Given in the first half of 2004, there were 200 cases of pirates' attacks reported worldwide those 17 pirates were busy I was thinking more about the sun and alternative theories like la Nina induced droughts in Keyna and its impact of coffee growth. Of course Nina can effect global weather although how is less predictable.

Edited September 24, 2012 by stewfox

[snowfluff]

Given in the first half of 2004, there were 200 cases of pirates' attacks reported worldwide those 17 pirates were busy I was thinking more about the sun and alternative theories.

global average temperatures verses pirates...... Is it out on Xbox yet, ready for Christmas?

[Methuselah]

There's a very strong correlation between eating ice-cream and then drowning within three hours!