Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2

[feb1991blizzard]

I take it there was a different run showing when you posted? That is NOT a Russian HP with undercutting, its opposite way round with huge trough to east, North Atlantic ridge and northerly winds....

BFTP

This was the chart.

This was the run up to it.

[Barry12]

Daily mail says a good chance. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2039418/UK-weather-Snow-forecast-parts-Britain-early-October.html

[A Winter's Tale]

Belting chart but i dont think that delivered for me personally, can you remember what day that was?, i think we got battered on the monday night / tuesday morning but only got showers for the rest of the week.

Might have been tuesday into wed.

In western Scotland the 27th was a lovely, sunny and crisp winter's day with lying snow as a result of an intense 30minute snowfall that brought thundersnow, it would be great if we could see radar images from that time once again. It would be a dream if we could get something like 2010 again but that event was exceptional that's at the extreme end of spectrum of winter weather. To have a more normal winter which isn't void of frost and snow with some cold spells from time to time would be fine.

[Methuselah]

Daily mail says a good chance. http://www.dailymail...ly-October.html

That's that then. See y'all next year!

[Jackfrost]

delete

Edited September 21, 2012 by Jackfrost

[feb1991blizzard]

Daily mail says a good chance. http://www.dailymail...ly-October.html

Thats an out of date article Barry, im sure thats last years, i remember the exacta wording of Madden's forecast, mind you i could be wrong because Madden just gives the same forecast every year, regardless of the background signals!

[gottolovethisweather]

Daily mail says a good chance. http://www.dailymail...ly-October.html

For once, I believe in the DM, well at least I want to. I also got distracted by a totally different story on that particular link and it wasn't Robbie Williams.

[Gavin Hannah]

Reallllllllllllllllllllly! Again... Did they not learn from last year?? As much as I think it will be an awesome winter... I thought the Mail would have learned from last years epic fail.

Edit: febblizzard is correct.... Thats last years lol.

Edited September 21, 2012 by IBringTheHammer

[Rollo]

Daily mail says a good chance. http://www.dailymail...ly-October.html

If the Daily Mail says that then in all probability it's the kiss of death. They do tend to exaggerate somewhat!!!!

[laserguy]

The article is dated Sep 20 2011. Turned out good then....

[snowy weather]

Thanks everyone that responded to my post. sorry I didnt get a chance to reply and say thanks to all before I was viewing this thread on a very small screen. some very informative info and links. now that I understand the charts better they look amazing.

[Mountain Snow]

That Daily Mail article is dated 20/09/11. I remember those forecasts were completely off the mark, seem to remember october being quite mild!

[feb1991blizzard]

In western Scotland the 27th was a lovely, sunny and crisp winter's day with lying snow as a result of an intense 30minute snowfall that brought thundersnow, it would be great if we could see radar images from that time once again. It would be a dream if we could get something like 2010 again but that event was exceptional that's at the extreme end of spectrum of winter weather. To have a more normal winter which isn't void of frost and snow with some cold spells from time to time would be fine.

I would have liked a bit more snow than 2010, lowest temperatures i have ever experienced but only aboy 10 inches of snow in the whole month, now in any other year a month with that much snow would be a stonker but because places within 10-15 miles of me got more than 2 foot, i felt a little disappointed, Jan 87 and feb 91 still to be beaten for me but if i would have lived here all my life rather than in the midlands and then Manchester then 09/10 may have beaten it, still 09/10 and dec 10 were very good and i would not have even dreamed of getting hardly any snow let alone six inch falls again, i had given up until i missed out by 5 miles on a pasting in feb 09.

[snowy weather]

Nov/Dec 2010 was awesome here with 45cm of snow in the fields around the 3rd of Dec.I would love to see a repeat of those snow depths this coming winter lol.

it could happen according to these charts couldnt it? do you remember how long it took for the snow to accumulate to 45cm? I wish I got 45 cm and -15.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

it could happen according to these charts couldnt it? do you remember how long it took for the snow to accumulate to 45cm? I wish I got 45 cm and -15.

I can't comment for 45cm but it took around 12-18hrs to get 30cm here in Grimsby during that event. I have never seen snow as heavy as that night.

[Summer Sun]

Daily mail says a good chance. http://www.dailymail...ly-October.html

That's from 2011

Edited September 21, 2012 by Summer Sun

[cooling climate]

I would be of the opinion that the high pressure caused the warm anomalies in this instance at least. It makes sense to me?

The record low was not minor. Based on the current evidence, it was the lowest in 8,000 years, possibly much longer.

Getting into the cause of the record minimum and the influence/relevance of the August storm is a debate for elsewhere though, but just to say, the ice was well on it's way towards lowest on record even before the storm.

The newly open waters in the Arctic allow for a rapid heat build up in Summer and subsequent release in the Autumn and early Winter. This affects the thermal and thickness gradient between the Arctic and the tropics, one of the fundamental causes of all weather. This change simply has to affect our weather in some way. The difficulty is teasing out the strength of that influence from the other drivers already mentioned, but mainly the low solar activity and -ve PDO.

This is only a theory nothing more nothing less and one I am not buying into. This of course works

well for the global warming brigade now they can say cold snowy winters and big freeze ups across

the northern hemisphere are a part and parcel of global warming,so therefore in a colder world with

above average Arctic ice means cold snowy winters in the northern hemisphere will be a thing of the

past. um I don't think so. I would not be at all surprised if a lot of the melt in the Arctic was down to

pollution ( soot, vulcanic dust etc). I am not denying there has been some global warming although

much of this I would put down to exceptionally active solar activity during the 20th centuray. Cooling

I think will be the dominant factor over the coming years.

As far as the cold winter of 2009/10 and December of 2010 is I think all to do with high volcanic

activity and very low solar activity plus of course the QBO and stratosphere.

The start of this winter the QBO will be in a similar state as it was in December 2010 and may

remain more favorable during the middle and latter half of winter than it did in Jan and Feb of

2011. Also solar activity is low (although not as low as in either of the winters mentioned above)

and hopefully this will continue.

There are other pointers to be optimistic about but I do not think Arctic sea ice is one of them

and yes the optimism in this thread is great but it is very early days.

[Met4Cast]

I remember sitting at the computer watching the radar back in Nov 2010 only to see a Kent Streamer lining itself up directly over my house, throughout that night heavy snowfalls brought about 30cm, the biggest snowfall I've seen in my life. Absolutely fantastic, the fact that it lasted so long too was even better!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This was the chart.

This was the run up to it.

Thought it had to be different. Goes to show though how runs change.....No reliability there. Nice chart though

BFTP

[Roger J Smith]

Imagine the excitement around here if the Daily Mail had a headline reading

"Experts predict mildest winter ever for Britain."

(blame lack of solar sausages)

[bobbydog]

That's from 2011

yup... read the date people and most importantly, read which 'forecaster' said it.....

[cyclonic happiness]

You ought to live where i do, we got 1'' of snow out of that god awful 2010 cold spell, if fact we had rime frost on the trees, bushes and grass and that helped the 'snow' total reach 2"!! The only good thing about it was reaching -17'c in the fields near me!

I

Edited September 21, 2012 by cyclonic happiness

[Cloud 10]

Imagine the excitement around here if the Daily Mail had a headline reading

"Experts predict mildest winter ever for Britain."

(blame lack of solar sausages)

Probably like this.

[Aaron]

If someone like Gavin started a thread for the mildest winter on record this would be the result..

[gottolovethisweather]

Probably like this.

It's all up in the air and hopefully that balloon won't be.