Child Of Nadine (Karin) - Severe Weather Discussion

[Polar Bear]

The depression is moving in from the SSW but any clouds associated with the system will be moving cyclonic within the anti-clockwise circulation of the depression.

yep I saw that too but thought I was just overtired....thanks LiamJ

[Thunder Snow]

A calm bright sunny but chilly today, however winds starting to pick up alittle

[gottolovethisweather]

Upper clouds seem to be coming from the east/south east. Surface wind currently 07019KT locally for me.

What is that in English speak? 19 knots perhaps. If so, 21.8mph so picking up slightly I would surmise from that.

Edited September 23, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[peterf]

airtalk lol.

[Methuselah]

A 7019kt wind does sound a wee bitty strong?

[Keraunic]

Aye, the clouds are moving from the East here. No more rain still but will there be more tonight?

Oh hold up..here comes the rain again.

Edited September 23, 2012 by Keraunophile

[gottolovethisweather]

The 12z GFS is perhaps slightly deeper on this run, down to 975mb - very windy weather with cyclonic strong to gale force winds for many areas of the UK. The exact track of the centre still uncertain but I have no doubts that this will be quite a nasty spell of weather nearly countrywide...... Bring it on

I must admit the 12z GFS does indicate a windier situation than I previously imagined, maybe a ramped up version, if compared to previous outputs.

Re: your comment on the nasty aspect, are you simply referring to the rain or wind or both?

Edited September 23, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Aaron]

This is what NAE is now forecasting.. ties in nicely with the amber warning for tomorrow.

[Luke]

Shouldn't there be another amber warning for the Midlands then? Most of the models seem to predict a large amount of rain for here now.

[chiffer]

Think there just waiting to see the low move inland.

[Dorsetbred]

Round 2 in the food mixer that is this low pressure system now coming up!

We are ready and waiting

[Mark Neal.]

This is what NAE is now forecasting.. ties in nicely with the amber warning for tomorrow.

Well i would be needing a Dingy to get to work tomorrow afternoon at this rate, if these model precip charts come off

[Mapantz]

More yellow warnings issued for Tuesday, covering parts of Scotland, Northern England, Wales and Southern counties.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/

[Liam J]

I must admit the 12z GFS does indicate a windier situation than I previously imagined, maybe a ramped up version, if compared to previous outputs.

Re: your comment on the nasty aspect, are you simply referring to the rain or wind or both?

I think a combination of both, but the windiest conditions will develop over the northern half of the UK during the course of Monday. UKMO & Hirlam along with the GFS all show a very tight pressure gradient on the northern flank of this depression - So this combined with the rainfall will make for some nasty conditions during tomorrow.

70mph gusts for locations exposed to the E/NE'ly winds, 40-50mph inland, perhaps higher due to funnelling and areas to the lee of high ground.

Edited September 23, 2012 by Liam J

[Aaron]

Well i would be needing a Dingy to get to work tomorrow afternoon at this rate, if these model precip charts come off

I suspect the amber warning will be extended to cover a wider area, such as the Midlands and parts of the SE region

[gottolovethisweather]

I think a combination of both, but the windiest conditions will develop over the northern half of the UK during the course of Monday. UKMO & Hirlam along with the GFS all show a very tight pressure gradient on the northern flank of this depression - So this combined with the rainfall will make for some nasty conditions during tomorrow.

The GFS most definitely did and that has to be of concern, what with all the saturated ground. I still need to look at the other outputs.

My eyes were also drawn to the southern section of the low, come late Monday into Tuesday (IMBY) which was perhaps, equally noteworthy.

Edited September 23, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[itsnowjoke]

Started to rain now...bring it on.

Hope my tv ariel stays where it is its a bit wobbly

[Sainsbo]

I'm surprised more of Wiltshire isn't under the amber warning yet, looks like we could see 2 or more inches tonight.

[itsnowjoke]

2 inches tonight lucky you

[pyrotech]

Interesting on buoy data

Nothing of interest on the river cams yet but tomorrow expect that to change.

Have a ship at 1700hrs

SHIP 1700 hrs position 47.00 -7.30 pressure 992.8 pressure tendency is quite signifigant -4.6 mb

[simon29]

I hope we get 10 inches of rain it would make it interesting

[itsnowjoke]

Wellies at the ready for 10 inches of rain

Edited September 23, 2012 by itsnowjoke

[TheToastPeople]

Been raining almost non-stop since 10am this morning, I have recorded only 7.8mm total rain today which errr isnt very much... When is this system going to get above relentless drizzle?

[itsnowjoke]

When you decide to have a bbq

[Luke]

All I know is the warnings came into force from 6pm