Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 3

[chionomaniac]

In terms of analogues -

If you use the ENSO scale of Pos, neg & Neutral, PDO & QBO-

Then the best match for the this winter of Negative PDO, Easterly QBO, & neutral ENSO ( If it holds ) -

From a dataset back to 1950 is

1962/1963 Winter.

Throw into the Mix the atmosphere is primed towards blocking through the SSTA over the NW atlantic & you get a 'chance' of a 1/50 year winter.

S

Is that a 1/50 chance though Steve?

Interestingly, November strat temps have cooled over the last 30 years or so at 30 hPa and we have had a dearth of Canadian Warmings in that time.

I suspect that the negative QBO is drawing to a close this winter as opposed to 1962/63 when it was in mid flow.

Oh and we had a CW in Nov 1962.

Edited October 8, 2012 by chionomaniac

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It must be an outlier! Or is it just responding to the bias of its 'warmist' programmers?

No its just like all models in FI......crap

BFTP

[SMU]

HUM, I think the QBO may just get over the winning line of a QBO being neg till FEB-

I am hoping we have a slow return to normalised values like 2005-

As for the chance of a 1/50 year winter- I thought that was a 1:50 Chance? ..

50 years to the year 1962 V 2012...

S

Edited October 8, 2012 by Steve Murr

[feb1991blizzard]

Is that a 1/50 chance though Steve?

Interestingly, November strat temps have cooled over the last 30 years or so at 30 hPa and we have had a dearth of Canadian Warmings in that time.

I suspect that the negative QBO is drawing to a close this winter as opposed to 1962/63 when it was in mid flow.

Oh and we had a CW in Nov 1962.

Im nowhere near as qualified meteorogically as you or Steve but i do know a bit about the laws of probability, i would say it is probably a 1/15 chance of a 62/63, an educated guess.

[feb1991blizzard]

It would be a 1/50 chance if we did not have any teleconnective data, past and present, to work with. 1947 and 1963, the only 2 years in the last 100 where we have had persistent Northern Blocking delivering bitter cold for most of the winter.

[chionomaniac]

Im nowhere near as qualified meteorogically as you or Steve but i do know a bit about the laws of probability, i would say it is probably a 1/15 chance of a 62/63, an educated guess.

I can assure that I have no meteorological qualifications, nor maths! However, surely the probability of a 1 in 50 chance of a 1 in 50 winter is 1 in 2500?

Anyway, I think the chance is greater than that and I am being sillily pedantic. Let's stick at 1 in 50 chance of a 62/63 - it's better than no chance at all!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Joe B thinks a 1 in 50 year winter ahead for NW Europe...just wanted to throw that in. And before some folk dismiss the notion or Joe Bs thoughts, hats off to him as he was calling this winter as likely to be exceptionally cold last December. I had e -mails from him as we discussed winter 11/12. He stated that he thought core of cold for SE back then for that winter and we would have to wait til 12/13 for a biggy. So consistency there.

I'm just thinking how this autumn and the tendency for blocking to be prevalent and jet to be disrupted reminds me of 85/6

BFTP

[feb1991blizzard]

I shall hold you to this in march....

Im convinced you will get a channel low giving you a decent snow event at some point. or a NW / SE aligned front getting stopped in its tracks.

[feb1991blizzard]

I can assure that I have no meteorological qualifications, nor maths! However, surely the probability of a 1 in 50 chance of a 1 in 50 winter is 1 in 2500?

Anyway, I think the chance is greater than that and I am being sillily pedantic. Let's stick at 1 in 50 chance of a 62/63 - it's better than no chance at all!

Maybe not on paper, but when you consider than the Met Office only recently agreed that there is a link between warmer stratosphere temps and a disrupted tropospheric vortex in winter and you have been saying it for years then you really ought to think about a career in meteorology been as its your hobby as well!!

[Snowy Easterlies]

I dont really think any type of cold weather will statisfy many now days on here.

Last winter was spectacular cf 1990s /2000s when instead of 9 days of lying snow we only had the odd flake in March. I know a lot of it is IMBY but 3/4 yrs ago everyone would be jumping if we had a sub 3c CET. Now i am sure there will be bitter disappointments and talk of rubbish winter if we have 1c CET but little snow.

-6.7c recorded in scotland tonight in 1907 could we beat that record this evening ? Wont beat 25.6c in Farnborough 1921 thats for sure.

agree people get greedy, so they want more, last winter was still better than many of the 2000s, i had a week of lying snow and -13 in February this year but compared to the previous winter it was rubbish.

i don't think i have ever seen blocking like this in october before, albeit i have only being viewing these models for about 4 years, shame its come too early but lets hope a raging jet doesn't emerge by november or the azores high

Edit GFS 18z gets rid of the blocking quickly anyway, so if it were winter snow wouldn't last long

Edited October 8, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[ZONE 51]

Well i've calculated it to be a 1/5 chance of a severe cold winter looking at historic data from the last 5 years..

[Alan Medlock Valley]

Joe B thinks a 1 in 50 year winter ahead for NW Europe...just wanted to throw that in. And before some folk dismiss the notion or Joe Bs thoughts, hats off to him as he was calling this winter as likely to be exceptionally cold last December. I had e -mails from him as we discussed winter 11/12. He stated that he thought core of cold for SE back then for that winter and we would have to wait til 12/13 for a biggy. So consistency there.

I'm just thinking how this autumn and the tendency for blocking to be prevalent and jet to be disrupted reminds me of 85/6

BFTP

1 in 50 year Winter?...Looks like Joe B is really sticking his neck out then for our Winter. Not surprisingly the worst Winter I have experienced was 62/63 as a young lad. So if it comes close then I will be surprised. Incidently that was almost exactly 50 years ago, could that be a positive omen or not? Winter will soon be here before we know it so we'll see.

[feb1991blizzard]

Well i've calculated it to be a 1/5 chance of a severe cold winter looking at historic data from the last 5 years..

A Severe winter though does not necessarily mean it has to be on the scale of 62/63, Based on the historic data, giving a higher weighting to recent ones and also based on current teleconnective patterns, i would put the chance of a severe winter at 35%, the chance of a decent winter with some notable snow events at 70 - 80%

[Snowy Easterlies]

Are these good synoptics showing in the models being wasted now? lets be honest the greenland high is not a common synoptic, the azores high, or a bog standard low pressure system going from west to east over us is, so this blocking is wasted in october, we could have blocking for the rest of this month and it won't give us snow, then come november a pattern change could happen, and we could be stuck in raging westerlies for ages, just a guess obviously no scientific research done from me, so to those that think this blocking is a good sign for winter then im afraid i don't believe you, though im happy to eat humble pie if these synoptics pop up again in november, december, we all know how hard the atlantic can be to shift once its gets going

Edited October 8, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Robbie Garrett]

I think the GFS and ECMWF whilst in Fantasy Lala land, are really picking up on a milder end to October, and warm beginning of November. Some sort of blocking in the Northern Hemisphere already taking place it seems, I think if it continues we can then start to see a more negative NAO as we head into Winter 2012/13.

My interpretation with the long-range stuff at the moment is very hard to predict. Lots of cold air about, and northern blocking.... I think we are probably looking at a warming event which wont show up on the longer-range models (I believe) to really kick start things across the UK.

The fact that this year so far has been so unsettled, with lots of the wet stuff I can see this winter being pretty much similar in vain.

But the NAO is looking in a good state for an early blast of Winter.

Edited October 8, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[ZONE 51]

What signals are there for an Atlantic winter? i can't find any!!

[Met4Cast]

Are these good synoptics showing in the models being wasted now? lets be honest the greenland high is not a common synoptic, the azores high, or a bog standard low pressure system going from west to east over us is, so this blocking is wasted in october, we could have blocking for the rest of this month and it won't give us snow, then come november a pattern change could happen, and we could be stuck in raging westerlies for ages, just a guess obviously no scientific research done from me, so to those that think this blocking is a good sign for winter then im afraid i don't believe you, though im happy to eat humble pie if these synoptics pop up again in november, december, we all know how hard the atlantic can be to shift once its gets going

One positive I suppose we can hold onto is that over the last couple of years our weather has been very "stuck" and slow to move from one pattern to another, if we become locked into a particular pattern it seems to stick around for a few months before changing.

Last winter saw very much the same pattern throughout, High pressure over Europe, it was a very blocked winter but we were unfortunately on the wrong side of the block, look at this summers weather, a couple of months of wet weather followed by a couple of months of slightly more changeable weather.

Weather in the Northern Hemisphere is very sluggish, if Northern Blocking does develop then don't expect it to disappear anytime soon.

[SMU]

there is no such thing as wasted synoptics....

S

[Snowy Easterlies]

Weather in the Northern Hemisphere is very sluggish, if Northern Blocking does develop then don't expect it to disappear anytime soon.

Agree we can become locked into patterns, so we could be locked into this northern blocking patten till end of november, then by december, we get a pattern change and we get locked into a bartlett high pattern for ages, who knows though i've seen us have greenie blocking only for a few days before it gets shunted out of the way, and i've seen us have zonialty for 5 days then a scandi high devlops

Edited October 8, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[feb1991blizzard]

Are these good synoptics showing in the models being wasted now? lets be honest the greenland high is not a common synoptic, the azores high, or a bog standard low pressure system going from west to east over us is, so this blocking is wasted in october, we could have blocking for the rest of this month and it won't give us snow, then come november a pattern change could happen, and we could be stuck in raging westerlies for ages, just a guess obviously no scientific research done from me, so to those that think this blocking is a good sign for winter then im afraid i don't believe you, though im happy to eat humble pie if these synoptics pop up again in november, december, we all know how hard the atlantic can be to shift once its gets going

I dont believe in the 'good synoptics wasted' or 'quota of blocking' arguments at all, however, the further you get into autumn then the more stormy and wet it usually becomes but at the moment there is no sign of a powerful Jet, you will always get more blocking patterns out of season than in late autumn / winter, the temperature / pressure gradient is steeper where the Jetstream lies between polar air and tropical air but we are looking for the jetstream to be south uf us in winter, the way this happens is disruption to the polar vortex, either by shifting it from greenland, splitting it, or better still completely ripping it to shreds, the only way the latter will happen is with a warming of the strat, the key is in the stratosphere.

[Snowy Easterlies]

there is no such thing as wasted synoptics....

S

Greenland high synoptics don't come around every week though, where as you know the Atlantic probably will have some sort of influence, sooner or later, with us being an island next to it.

[Snowy Easterlies]

I dont believe in the 'good synoptics wasted' or 'quota of blocking' arguments at all, however, the further you get into autumn then the more stormy and wet it usually becomes but at the moment there is no sign of a powerful Jet, you will always get more blocking patterns out of season than in late autumn / winter, the temperature / pressure gradient is steeper where the Jetstream lies between polar air and tropical air but we are looking for the jetstream to be south uf us in winter, the way this happens is disruption to the polar vortex, either by shifting it from greenland, splitting it, or better still completely ripping it to shreds, the only way the latter will happen is with a warming of the strat, the key is in the stratosphere.

there is no sign for now of a powerful jet, but as you say the more into autumn you go it fires up normally, the atlantic crashing into us is the norm, greenie highs are not the norm, well apart from our last few summers

i am just being pessimistic though

Edited October 8, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[feb1991blizzard]

Greenland high synoptics don't come around every week though, where as you know the Atlantic probably will have some sort of influence, sooner or later, with us being an island next to it.

They have done the last few summers!!!

[Snowy Easterlies]

the polar vortex is weaker in summer though, anyway im not qualified enough to go into great detail, i just think people get carried away when they see blocking and think its going to last for weeks and weeks, i firmly believe in the law of averages, if we see a spell of this blocking now, in a few weeks time it will be the turn of the azores high or zonailty, unless the Atlantic stays very sluggish for the next 4 months which it won't probably

[feb1991blizzard]

One positive I suppose we can hold onto is that over the last couple of years our weather has been very "stuck" and slow to move from one pattern to another, if we become locked into a particular pattern it seems to stick around for a few months before changing.

Last winter saw very much the same pattern throughout, High pressure over Europe, it was a very blocked winter but we were unfortunately on the wrong side of the block, look at this summers weather, a couple of months of wet weather followed by a couple of months of slightly more changeable weather.

Weather in the Northern Hemisphere is very sluggish, if Northern Blocking does develop then don't expect it to disappear anytime soon.

Its all about the period of watching from about late Oct - Mid Nov, if things are looking good then, im convinced we are in for a good winter, however, there could be a scenario where the South East of the country gets absolutely battered with classic mid 80's synoptics but because i am well inland and up North, closer to any NLB, i could end up with less snow than last winter, so what people must realise is that you cannot say that winter is going to be great from an IMBY perspective until you are 48 hours from a heavy snowfall.

Edited October 8, 2012 by feb1991blizzard