Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 3

[feb1991blizzard]

One thing that does bug me now about all the times back in the 80s when i used to listen to forecasts, praying for snow because i did not want to go to school (i hated school), if i would have had the amount of info available nowadays then i could have been put out my misery. 88/89 and 89/90 spring to mind!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

From nothing but a gut feeling, I think we can dismiss the notion of a 62/63 or 47 type winter for this coming season. I'm also conscious not to get drawn into ramping as last year was an utter flop here; even in late Jan/Feb. Funnily enough the best snowfall last winter came in december from an extremely marginal Irish Sea streamer scenario. Got 4-5cm out of it, 5cm is the largest snow depth we've had here since late December 2000 I think.

Jan 2010, Dec 2010, Dec 2011 had roughly equal snow depths in the 3-5cm bracket. Late Dec 2000 managed to rack up about 7-8cm if I remember correctly. Oh and Feb 2007 managed about 5-7cm. We never ever get much more than that here.....well i've never witnessed greater depths.

Edited October 8, 2012 by CreweCold

[SnowObsessor90]

Greenland high synoptics don't come around every week though, where as you know the Atlantic probably will have some sort of influence, sooner or later, with us being an island next to it.

If only we happened to live in a more continental climate, sure the weather would be less variable and a bit 'boring' but at least there'd be a better chance of snow every year not to mention hotter summers which I'd take all day long.

Edited October 8, 2012 by Anonymous21

[feb1991blizzard]

From nothing but a gut feeling, I think we can dismiss the notion of a 62/63 or 47 type winter for this coming season. I'm also conscious not to get drawn into ramping as last year was an utter flop here; even in late Jan/Feb. Funnily enough the best snowfall last winter came in december from an extremely marginal Irish Sea streamer scenario. Got 4-5cm out of it, 5cm is the largest snow depth we've had here since late December 2000 I think.

I agree 63 and 47 are unlikely, and even 87 / 91 events are once in a generation events and i was lucky enough to experience 2 in 4 years, that said though, you never get any snow anyway do you, i got about the same from last december around the 17th / 18th, it was after the froch fight on the saturday night, lucky i stayed up for froch else i would have missed it, about 2 inches in about an hour 5 - 6 am sunday morning, the biggest flakes i have ever seen, i think you got battered on the friday before if i remember rightly, the cat and fiddle road was impassable at one point.

5cm was the largest depth i saw between 1997 and 2009, finally i got 6 inches in 2010 Jan 5th (Salford)

Edited October 9, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Cheshire Freeze]

I agree 63 and 47 are unlikely, and even 87 / 91 events are once in a generation events and i was lucky enough to experience 2 in 4 years, that said though, you never get any snow anyway do you, i got about the same from last december around the 17th / 18th, it was after the froch fight on the saturday night, lucky i stayed up for froch else i would have missed it, about 2 inches in about an hour 5 - 6 am sunday morning, the biggest flakes i have ever seen, i think you got battered on the friday before if i remember rightly, the cat and fiddle road was impassable at one point.

5cm was the largest depth i saw between 1997 and 2009, finally i got 6 inches in 2010 Jan 5th (Salford)

Yes Manchester did very well 2009/2010......the wind just wasn't nw'ly enough for here. So frustrating seeing the shower train to the north, shower after shower off the Irish Sea. I haven't quite recovered from that injustice. Seeing my other half's car (at the time) with a foot of snow iced to the roof when she came down (from Stockport) was a massive kick in the cahoonas.

The second kick to the cahoonas came when she saw the snow in Crewe and said 'is that it'......not the first time I've heard those words

Edited October 9, 2012 by CreweCold

[Snowy Easterlies]

i had 8 inches of snow here in bedford on the 18th December 2010, the most i can remember for at least 15 years, so to get another huge dumping just 2 years later is unlikely but not impossible, we have too keep our expectations lower, even though its hard not to get carried away, when people hear about these "good signals" for winter and the ramping starts, we are not in russia, even though people have said that cliche thousands of times, we still hope for a brutal winter when it is more likely to just be average

Edited October 9, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes Manchester did very well 2009/2010......the wind just wasn't nw'ly enough for here. So frustrating seeing the shower train to the north, shower after shower off the Irish Sea. I haven't quite recovered from that injustice. Seeing my other half's car (at the time) with a foot of snow iced to the roof when she came down (from Stockport) was a massive kick in the cahoonas.

The second kick to the cahoonas came when she saw the snow in Crewe and said 'is that it'......not the first time I've heard those words

True i got 6 inches but i was looking to move out to Saddleworth / peak district that winter but circumstances prevented, if i had been here then, on a personal level it would have topped 87 / 91, a taxi driver told me that he came down the A62 and the snow nearly blinded him with brightness , it was just a massive wall of snow, many feet deep, he had to let an elderly woman out way before here home and there were all cars abandoned, and the local shopkeeper said that hardly anything went up her road for Jan and most of feb. ironically if i would have chosen Buxton over Saddleworth when i finally moved, i would have got 2 feet in dec 10!!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

True i got 6 inches but i was looking to move out to Saddleworth / peak district that winter but circumstances prevented, if i had been here then, on a personal level it would have topped 87 / 91, a taxi driver told me that he came down the A62 and the snow nearly blinded him with brightness , it was just a massive wall of snow, many feet deep, he had to let an elderly woman out way before here home and there were all cars abandoned, and the local shopkeeper said that hardly anything went up her road for Jan and most of feb. ironically if i would have chosen Buxton over Saddleworth when i finally moved, i would have got 2 feet in dec 10!!!

You only have to travel a few miles east of here to hit deeper snow usually. Even Sandbach (6 miles NE and 20m higher) gets deeper snow with Congleton and Macclesfield faring even better. It really is a desperate place for snow here.

P.s the only 2 feet I ever see are my own......No comment on the 6 inches though

Edited October 9, 2012 by CreweCold

[Snowy Easterlies]

True i got 6 inches but i was looking to move out to Saddleworth / peak district that winter but circumstances prevented, if i had been here then, on a personal level it would have topped 87 / 91, a taxi driver told me that he came down the A62 and the snow nearly blinded him with brightness , it was just a massive wall of snow, many feet deep, he had to let an elderly woman out way before here home and there were all cars abandoned, and the local shopkeeper said that hardly anything went up her road for Jan and most of feb. ironically if i would have chosen Buxton over Saddleworth when i finally moved, i would have got 2 feet in dec 10!!!

i don't think you need to worry, you will get snow at some point as you live on high ground in the north, you are much more likely to see decent snow than me, unless we get a channel low of course then i could do well, im too far inland, for northerlies, northwesterlies, and even northeasterlies don't deliver here, easterlies do the business but are rare as hens teeth

[feb1991blizzard]

You only have to travel a few miles east of here to hit deeper snow usually. Even Sandbach (6 miles NE and 20m higher) gets deeper snow with Congleton and Macclesfield faring even better. It really is a desperate place for snow here.

I always used to think when i was a kid, if only i lived further North, but its not as simple as that, Manchester is worse than the West Midlands, i think that the trick is to get as far North and East as possible while maintaining a decent altitude (200m at least), if you move to the North East then dont go right to the coast as even decent easterlies or Northerlies can produce rain, on balance, the best places in England to live are North Yorkshire if you want consistency, a guaranteed amount of snow, saying that i think the A57 snake pass just outside sheffield gets to an elevation of 1500 ft, there is the odd house there but very remote, Cumbria tasty as well, the higher routes around here (1200 ft) can be crackers but you are relying on elevation here more than anything, if this was as low as Manchester, it would not be any better IMO.

Well done on graduating by the way.

A53 leek to buxton road and A537 cat and fiddle both good, Flash saw snow last xmas eve, while we were about 8c, we were 14c xmas day and yet one day in July we had a Max of 13c!!!!

Edited October 9, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well done on graduating by the way.

Cheers!

[feb1991blizzard]

i had 8 inches of snow here in bedford on the 18th December 2010, the most i can remember for at least 15 years, so to get another huge dumping just 2 years later is unlikely but not impossible, we have too keep our expectations lower, even though its hard not to get carried away, when people hear about these "good signals" for winter and the ramping starts, we are not in russia, even though people have said that cliche thousands of times, we still hope for a brutal winter when it is more likely to just be average

You must have got at least a foot in both 87 and 91 though.

[Met4Cast]

Just out of interest - What are the NetWeather Long Range forecasts based on? I'm not talking about the ones from GP etc, but the actual charts themselves/how accurate do they tend to be? They currently suggest an average/above average winter

[Snowy Easterlies]

can't remember i was born in 86, and we moved from kent to bedford in 93

lol this thread has got way to busy its only October

[feb1991blizzard]

Just out of interest - What are the NetWeather Long Range forecasts based on? I'm not talking about the ones from GP etc, but the actual charts themselves/how accurate do they tend to be? They currently suggest an average/above average winter

Statistically im not too sure but i much prefer Ian Simpson and Stewart Ramplings text updates to be honest, always think an explanation is needed for anything beyond a few days.

[feb1991blizzard]

can't remember i was born in 86, and we moved from kent to bedford in 93

lol this thread has got way to busy its only October

That explains it then, you havent experienced the 2 greatest of my gen.

Thread is busy because of you and me!!!!!!

Night!

Edited October 9, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[kippure]

Up here in alberta in the conklin area we had snow today, but thats canada for yeh

Edited October 9, 2012 by kippure

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Agree with Steve M, there are no wasted synoptics. They are what they are when they are. Re talk of Atlantic having influence, yes it will at some stage, it is now over next week. However, it doesn't mean mild mush, its all about the jetstream. Indeed if some folk want 'blizzards' then pray for Atlantic influence on a southerly tracking jet stream.

The jetstream continues to be further south than normal, we see big swings in its movement and this has been the case for sometime now. Opportunity will arise to provide some very nlotable events. Getting UK nailed in is more difficult than the near continent. Look at last Feb, that was a major / extreme cold spell, SE got some of it but rest of UK and Ireland didn't. Point I'm making is we will have a severe spell forming and with the jetstream as it is.......chances are improved somewhat. My signature states my views, so far so good as we are seeing this going on.

Presently for me, I'd rather see the continued pattern of the jetstream now than a well formed PV and flat jet now.

BFTP

[Radiating Dendrite]

Agree with Blast.

It is important to remember that some of the snowiest winters have not been the coldest as well!

As for the ECM, relax its long range forecast is as useless as the rest in all reality.

[chionomaniac]

After years of chasing models looking for snow I see a thing of beauty in watching the synoptics shape up - whether or not the time of year is right for snow.

Today's 00Z ECM is a case in point. Whereas the synoptics are not perfect, there is a beauty in the evolution of a channel low that would bring copius amounts of snow in the heart of winter if the 850's were right.

We can if and but whether or not this could be the case, but I guess my hobby has evolved to such an extent that I also love watching the dream synoptic charts appear (especially if one can predict them before they occur!) as much as I love the end product of snow.

[feb1991blizzard]

After years of chasing models looking for snow I see a thing of beauty in watching the synoptics shape up - whether or not the time of year is right for snow.

Today's 00Z ECM is a case in point. Whereas the synoptics are not perfect, there is a beauty in the evolution of a channel low that would bring copius amounts of snow in the heart of winter if the 850's were right.

We can if and but whether or not this could be the case, but I guess my hobby has evolved to such an extent that I also love watching the dream synoptic charts appear (especially if one can predict them before they occur!) as much as I love the end product of snow.

Thats the key, it is about getting a foot of snow in the main, but the charts of a scandinavian high with -15 uppers powering westwards are a thing of beauty as well as the actual weather, akin to watching Barcelona play at their best, the creme de la creme.

[SMU]

Morning All-

Is this for the winter area or model discussion- hey ho I will paste into both-

I think the ECM evolution is the most likely with retrograde into Greenland.

However that aside for one moment look at the ECM -

http://www.meteociel...ype=0&archive=0

Load up every map in Meteociel & run your cursor over the times - watch the area of 504 DAM heights ( purple ) which starts over North West Greenland & gets reversed around the pole to be on course for central Russia at day 12-

For that to happen the zonal flow has to be well below the mean to such an extent that the blocking is predisposed in the northern part of the NH pattern- especially in the 2 key quadrants that effect the UK ( greenland & Scandi)

Its the chicken & the egg, but we should be falling back to the net thermal gradient outputs from the latter part of summer-

Taking that into the equation & what it means for autumn is that the MEAN location of the NH polar front will be several degrees further south than the NH MEAN average-

This in itself isnt the guarentour of the UK being below average on CET, what it does mean is the colder air is in closer proximity to the UK,- On average I would say the PF runs across 50N- 60N

Perhaps on AVERAGE its running NET around 45N-55N

For the UK though we are actually seeing the result of the SSTA around Greenland effecting the jet even further-

So even though the net of the whole PF is further south we are getting varying degrees of disruption around 50 W & 50 N-

You then end up with either a weak jet that dives north up towards western greenland & then returns south angled towards France.

The other scenario is even more severe where the jet splits ( NOTE ECM DAY 10) where we get an arm forced around the pole & an even weaker southern arm heading towards france.

There is also something else that I dont thing any single person has mentioned- so I will put it forward now-

The southern tip of greenland is always a point of reference I use to see what effects its going to have on any low pressure exiting the NE States-

Traditionally the low pressure systems creep under the tip of greenland on course for iceland- & of course that positive NAO pattern that we normally see-

NOW the jet is displaced further north & at a greater angle its actually sending these low pressures towards or up to the left of that greenland tip-

If a system crashes into Southern greenland you will see a large loss of energy ( a bit like a hurricane hitting land) - & soon over and the systems fall apart-

whats the net of this- LESS easterly progression towards europe-

Whats there more of- More lows splitting energy across the west coast of greenland with energy going south & North-

Remember these 2 key charts that demonstrate this PERFECT-

http://modeles.meteo...2-12-26-0-0.png

http://www.meteociel...=0&map=5&mode=0

its all about Western Greenland-

What does this mean in terms of October- well its important to recognise that where the MEAN jet for october is & the fact that even with a Greenland high the trough that sets up on the SE side could still sit towards western Norway or Northern Scotland leaving the UK mild-

Thats the warmest scenario^

The coldest scenario is the trough is forced south & east of the UK & we are in the early season polar air.

even the middle ground is cold & unsettled with the heaviest of the PPN in the south of the UK with a string of runners along the channel.

Taking that back to the CET we are odds on 80/20 to be below average, where the trough sets up is probably the difference between the catagory of cold / below ave we fall into-

will it be 9-10 CET or even 8-9 CET. with a rank outsider sub 8c-

Naturally we are already turning towards November, & if we return the status quo then the only difference to October would be the expansion of the polar cell & how suddenly we go to North & east for cold air instead of the North in October.

So you 'could' forecast a below ave November already with one footnote-

Week 2 of November will see the stratsphere show its hand in terms of cooling temps V the norm- if we get VERY cold then the net anomaly of the jet could be wiped out & the signal for an erratic jet over southern greenland will be muted.

Exciting times ahead- watch out for a big renewed cold push of air into NORTHERN Europe at day 12 & the possibility of it pushing towards the UK day 12-14-- it depends on the trough....

regards

Steve

Edited October 9, 2012 by Steve Murr

[Radiating Dendrite]

Do you want a ramp with that Steve?

[Tony Beets]

That's the kind of post I like Steve!! Nice work.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Thanks Steve, I'll second what the MBK said - a great post which really sounds inticing... Indeed, exciting times ahead