Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 3

[chionomaniac]

So looks like a cold strat and possibly importantly a West QBO

BFTP

?

[Aaron]

One thing we haven't seen for a while is a hardcore undercutting low scenario.....the type that can bring 1-2 feet of snow across the central swathe of the country without the mild air pushing in straight after. Obviously the '78-'79 winter is down in history for this but I'd love to see something like this in the near future.

78/79 - would love a repeat!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

One thing we haven't seen for a while is a hardcore undercutting low scenario.....the type that can bring 1-2 feet of snow across the central swathe of the country without the mild air pushing in straight after. Obviously the '78-'79 winter is down in history for this but I'd love to see something like this in the near future.

Ive never had that much snow here, I tend to be too far north for snow of undercutting lows

[Snowy Easterlies]

http://modeles.meteo...-3-0-276.png?12

http://modeles.meteo...-3-1-336.png?12

it would be just so typical if charts like these came off, although Gavin will love it of course

deep FI i know

Edited October 12, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Cloud 10]

78/79 - would love a repeat!

Certainly a happy new year in '79

[MR EXTREMES]

I think were starting to see strengthening vortex and possible repeat of last winter.

Being the UK were unlucky but Europe could well have a very cold winter.

[Alan Medlock Valley]

I think were starting to see strengthening vortex and possible repeat of last winter.

Being the UK were unlucky but Europe could well have a very cold winter.

Hmmm the Euro slug may well wake up from it's Summer slumber....again. You wouldn't bet against it.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This year or last?

2002/3

BFTP

[Methuselah]

I think were starting to see strengthening vortex and possible repeat of last winter.

Being the UK were unlucky but Europe could well have a very cold winter.

Not to worry, whatever happens, Piers Corbyn, Joe B and John Madden will all be claiming 100% success...

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I think were starting to see strengthening vortex and possible repeat of last winter.

Being the UK were unlucky but Europe could well have a very cold winter.

It makes me laugh so much to hear such comments, are you actually for reall it's the 12th oct???

The strat is meant to cool and the vortex will always gather strength this time of year, it's called autumn, the northern hemisphere cools dramatically with the vortex being a natural process.

I'm glad I don't live in your world if that's how dramatic you are bad boy!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

?

C

It seems the build up was missed. I mentioned 2002/3 as that was when we had SH SSW and we've recently had one so I was musing whether we'd have a similar NH synoptic response. I asked if anyone could come up with what the stratos was like in Oct/Nov of 2002, that was posted. on reading that it shows 2002/3 was west QBO and looking at 30 temps it looks like ther stratos was cold.

2002/3 BEING a frustrating window could be importantly because the QBO was WEST. This winter is EAST

BFTP

Edited October 12, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Andy_]

I think were starting to see strengthening vortex and possible repeat of last winter.

Being the UK were unlucky but Europe could well have a very cold winter.

I think the general consensus at the minute is that yes the stratosphere is cooling, naturally, and that we don't need it to be warmer than average just yet, being October and that, all's well i think

I wouldn't worry about the vortex being strong anyways, as long as it isn't permanently set up over Greenland for the next 4 months.

Edited October 12, 2012 by Andy163

[I remember Atlantic 252]

http://modeles.meteo...-3-0-276.png?12

http://modeles.meteo...-3-1-336.png?12

it would be just so typical if charts like these came off, although Gavin will love it of course

deep FI i know

So will I, (can probably tell by my user name) dont want cold before mid Nov, a waste

[Met4Cast]

I think people are taking Stratospheric temperatures too seriously.

The Stratosphere IS cooling, but it's autumn, it's going to cool down as the suns influence gradually fades away and darkness gradually increases, winter is on its way, if the Stratosphere wasn't cooling then it'd be incredibly weird and unusual.

This time last year, the Stratosphere was slightly above average, look what happened. Don't worry about the Stratosphere until the end of this month and into November, thats when this factor comes into play.

[Snowy Easterlies]

this might sound like a dumb question but did the stratosphere cool down in October 2010, because november and december still had lots of northern blocking

[Bristawl Si]

I think were starting to see strengthening vortex and possible repeat of last winter.

Being the UK were unlucky but Europe could well have a very cold winter.

Any chance of picking my lottery numbers for tomorrow? Come to think of it could you pick them for the 1st Saturday in January?

Some of the posts in here are truly laughable - it's not even mid-October yet!

[NorthernRab]

I think were starting to see strengthening vortex and possible repeat of last winter.

Being the UK were unlucky but Europe could well have a very cold winter.

Sorry if I'm sounding ignorant here, but doesn't the stratosphere always cool during October?

[Catacol]

It makes me laugh so much to hear such comments, are you actually for reall it's the 12th oct???

The strat is meant to cool and the vortex will always gather strength this time of year, it's called autumn, the northern hemisphere cools dramatically with the vortex being a natural process.

I'm glad I don't live in your world if that's how dramatic you are bad boy!

I was just thinking exactly the same thing and was going to respond in kind. A winter's over post on 12th Oct? Farcical. BadBoy - I suggest reading some of the posts on here and checking your calendar carefully before posting such daft nonsense.

Edited October 12, 2012 by Catacol_Highlander

[Radiating Dendrite]

Yes.

The stratosphere ALWAYS cools in autumn.

Edited October 12, 2012 by Radiating Dendrite

[cheeky_monkey]

I was just thinking exactly the same thing and was going to respond in kind. A winter's over post on 12th Oct? Farcical. BadBoy - I suggest reading some of the posts on here and checking your calendar carefully before posting such daft nonsense.

Everybody is allowed an opinion...where did it say winter is over either??????

[Cloud 10]

Not to worry, whatever happens, Piers Corbyn, Joe B and John Madden will all be claiming 100% success...

Haven't seen his forecast yet.

[feb1991blizzard]

this might sound like a dumb question but did the stratosphere cool down in October 2010, because november and december still had lots of northern blocking

It always cools down, it has to, its just how much, although i wonder if chiono or someone would explain why it did not seem particularly warm at 70hpa level, only briefly getting above the 30 year mean.

Edited October 12, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Skip Spence]

Any chance of picking my lottery numbers for tomorrow? Come to think of it could you pick them for the 1st Saturday in January?

Some of the posts in here are truly laughable - it's not even mid-October yet!

And yet in mid-October it appears to be perfectly reasonable to suggest that we might just as well be in Lapland for three months come the end of November.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes the strat cools every year BUT once the PV gets its act together it can be nigh on impossible to weaken/displace it again; which is why I would argue a cold strat is no good for cold lovers at any juncture. We've all seen how limpet like and resillient a strong PV can be........

Once the strat goes cold and a monster PV sets up, we're then reliant on the infamous SSW which may or may not happen. I'd rather not be in that position in the first place, having to rely on warmings which only MIGHT happen sometime later in winter.

Edited October 12, 2012 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes the strat cools every year BUT once the PV gets its act together it can be nigh on impossible to weaken/displace it again; which is why I would argue a cold strat is no good for cold lovers at any juncture. We've all seen how limpet like and resillient a strong PV can be........

In 1988-2007 yes i agree, but before that we always used to have stormy westerly Oct/Nov but at some point during the winter we would have a bitter spell with widespread disruption from proper Northern Blocking.