Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 3

[SnowObsessor90]

Speaking of the Atlantic pushing through, today's 06z run does show that possible solution in deep FI and to be honest if the winter is to start of on a milder note then I really wouldn't mind seeing a zonal type pattern take hold as early as possible providing that strat situation doesn't become too unfavorable as it may still allow for a shot of cold a bit further down line in late Dec/early Jan ala 2009

GP' has already alluded to that sort of scenario so I suppose it's a straw to clutch onto for now.

[EML Network]

ha ha ha ha ha the Netweather forum turns into a heated debate...can mean only one thing...winter is looming ~:-)

I find it quite funny, this happens every winter on here, ...will it, won't it snow, etc etc.

As for me, i'm actually looking forward to this coming week and the potential for some really windy days on offer here along the channel coast, so the ''will it , won't it snow'' has taken a back seat for a while.

Won't stop me from coming over here every day to see what the ''latest'' developments are though.

Keep up the debate folks

[bobbydog]

Speaking of the Atlantic pushing through, today's 06z run does show that possible solution in deep FI and to be honest if the winter is to start of on a milder note then I really wouldn't mind seeing a zonal type pattern take hold as early as possible providing that strat situation doesn't become too unfavorable as it may still allow for a shot of cold a bit further down line in late Dec/early Jan ala 2009

GP' has already alluded to that sort of scenario so I suppose it's a straw to clutch onto for now.

the last frame of FI is OCTOBER 29TH! winter is over a month away from that point! and seven weeks away from today!

why would anyone be straw clutching about winter when we are not even half way through autumn???!!!!

[Met4Cast]

I don't know where all the negativity has come from? It seems one person says something slightly negative and it just dominos from there on in.

I'll say this one last time. It's October. Being negative at this stage is not only illogical, but stupid.

EDIT: is this a slight warming I see?

Edited October 13, 2012 by Daniel AKA WMD

[Barry12]

Wasn't mid December 2009 a complete surprise? only a week before it happened a few signs showed, 2 weeks before it happened nobody had a clue. Which is why when Winter is 7 weeks away, it is very daft to say the Winter is over or that we wont get any cold to late winter. The weather is unpredictable and always will be.

[johnholmes]

I don't know where all the negativity has come from? It seems one person says something slightly negative and it just dominos from there on in.

I'll say this one last time. It's October. Being negative at this stage is not only illogical, but stupid.

EDIT: is this a slight warming I see?

gawd don't start the pack off again it is too early to be looking at that?

[johnholmes]

note on the CFS runs which are getting quoted when they suit a particular preference. i would urge any of you that want to look at a CFS run to use the NH profile rather than the european one. then you get a chance to see what the overall patterns are showing rather than those just for our part of the NH. these long range models are never going to get the pattern right for specific area of the NH. however, they should be useful for getting a handle on the kind of overall patterns that might be upcoming. there are very few CFS runs that build a strong organised vortex for the winter. mostly, we see either a strong displaced p/v which meanders around the NH between n canada and siberia or we see split vortices which again seem quite mobile. if there was little mobility being shown then i could accept that we might be unlucky and sit in the wrong place hemispherically to receive any meaningful cold spells. however, currently, the combination of lack of organised strong vortex and mobility of what is there pretty well guarantees that we will see some cold periods this winter with associated snowfall. at the moment, there looks to be little chance of a spell lasting many weeks as the pattern is moving around too much. now the modelling should begin to become rather more focussed as it get closer and that could mean we trend in either direction away from what is currently shown. (towards more blocking with a less mobile picture or towards a more organised vortex). what would be a surprise is a step so far as to see a repeat of dec/jan polar profiles from last winter.

I particularly like your comment at the beginning re look at the bigger picture and no model cfs or any other getting a specific area necessarily correct-trends not specifis as always

[bobbydog]

I particularly like your comment at the beginning re look at the bigger picture and no model cfs or any other getting a specific area necessarily correct-trends not specifis as always

exactly john. i'm not even remotely looking at our weather for the forseeable future. its autumn and i'm expecting autumnal weather!

i'm looking at the NH charts, watching how the vortex is developing and how this is affecting snow cover development over siberia and subsequently, further down the line, its progression into europe. these are the type of things people should be looking at. whether it snows in scotland next week or not, (for example) has no bearing on how winter will turn out.

[sebastiaan1973]

Please take a look overhere. http://www.wzforum.d....php?27,2519981 German written forecast for this winter.

Edited October 13, 2012 by sebastiaan1973

[weather is fun]

Im surprised how much faith people seem to have in joe laminate floori. He called the us forecast last winter shockinley wrong. So what chance does he have with us in the uk. Alot seem to think he got the uk correct last year when infact he didnt. He was calling for heavy snow just after xmas which never happened. And i wouldnt buy into his theorys for us this year. My guess would be he is trying to generate some kind of histeria of some sort. I think its still all to play for regarding either cold or mild i think it could be on a knife edge but if i was to lean towards anything i would perhaps say we will see something very similar to last winter with a cold blast late jan early feb with another mild christmas period. Which would suit me fine i.e people can still get about to see freinds and familys safely. So a green xmas please lol

[SnowObsessor90]

the last frame of FI is OCTOBER 29TH! winter is over a month away from that point! and seven weeks away from today!

why would anyone be straw clutching about winter when we are not even half way through autumn???!!!!

That post was merely speaking in a hypothetical sense and wasn't all that negative anyway.

Perhaps I should have worded the last line a little better but overall I really do not see much wrong in what was said, it's no worse than let's say people speculating on good looking cold synoptics in deep FI and not much of a fuss is made over that.

[Gael_Force]

I much prefer the monthly NH anomaly outlooks from the CFS - good strong signal for a very blocked Arctic with cold displaced to lower latitudes. It too changes from run to run in placement of the cold pooling but very consistent with the idea of no central Polar vortex.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=1&carte=1&run=10

A repeat of last February on the cards? http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3367/cfsnh-8-2-2013_xom0.png

[bobbydog]

the "Joe B got it right/wrong last year" is becoming a little repetetive. if anyone wants to continue harping on about him or any other of the 'infamous' forecasters, please do it here- http://forum.netweat...fending-thread/

thanks

edit- don't bother, locked now. point missed i think. oh well, we'll just have to endure it in here then.....

Edited October 13, 2012 by bobbydog

[kate1]

Please take a look overhere. http://www.wzforum.d....php?27,2519981 German written forecast for this winter.

Very interesting analysis - so he seems to be suggesting close parallels between this winter and winter 2009/10... Thanks for that, Sebastiaan.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Just out of curiosity, may I ask why all you cold lovers want a bitterly cold winter, what is it you get out of it? Is it because you find a white landscape beautiful? I agree it is, but so is an Autumnal one with the vast array of colours. Is it because you have fun playing in the snow? Surely it's the messing around with your mates which is the important bit of that, you can do that anywhere and any time, whatever the weather. Do you enjoy being cold? Go out with less clothes on, you'll soon replicate that feeling. Enjoy not being able to get anywhere because the buses aren't running or you can't get the car out? You could always walk everywhere, regardless of the weather.

It's a glorious Autumn day around here, given that summer weather can continue long into the Autumn months and winter can bite early, I always think Autumn can be a really short season - enjoy it. Winter will come soon enough and no amount of wishing or hand wringing will change what happens. Stop fretting and enjoy what weather there is at the moment.

I think it is easy, when having a strong desire for something (e.g. "when is it next going to snow?") to get fixated on it- I know, I've been there! Also, there are many members who are interested mainly in one or two types of weather, of which cold and snow in the winter appears to be most popular.

Regarding the question, I find it to be a combination of the white landscape, the extra pleasurable activities like snowmen, sledging and snowball fights, and above all, I find those sunshine-and-snow-showers setups very exciting to watch (having moved inland I'm not quite as well-placed for those as in Tyneside or Norwich, but inland North Yorkshire still tends to pick up a lot of snow showers when we have a good blow from the east or north-east with 850hPa temperatures close to or below -10C or, more rarely, a particularly cold north-westerly).

The winters of 2009/10 and 2010/11 showed me that my tolerance for prolonged cold snowy weather is pretty high- the only exception seems to be when the snow turns icy for a long period. Nonetheless, I would still prefer a mixed winter with cold snowy spells interspersed with milder ones, rather than a repeat of 1962/63. For me, there are plenty of other types of winter weather that can also be exciting in their own way (including some that involve warm temperatures), just as long as they don't dominate for almost the entire season.

Edited October 13, 2012 by Thundery wintry showers

[Aaron]

Just out of curiosity, may I ask why all you cold lovers want a bitterly cold winter, what is it you get out of it? Is it because you find a white landscape beautiful? I agree it is, but so is an Autumnal one with the vast array of colours. Is it because you have fun playing in the snow? Surely it's the messing around with your mates which is the important bit of that, you can do that anywhere and any time, whatever the weather. Do you enjoy being cold? Go out with less clothes on, you'll soon replicate that feeling. Enjoy not being able to get anywhere because the buses aren't running or you can't get the car out? You could always walk everywhere, regardless of the weather.

It's a glorious Autumn day around here, given that summer weather can continue long into the Autumn months and winter can bite early, I always think Autumn can be a really short season - enjoy it. Winter will come soon enough and no amount of wishing or hand wringing will change what happens. Stop fretting and enjoy what weather there is at the moment.

This is a silly question - it's like asking why do heat lovers enjoy temperatures in the mid 30's, or why do thunderstorm lovers enjoy chasing something that could potentially end their life - we're all weather enthusiasts here, aren't we? We're all here because we actually enjoy the weather and what it throws at us? We like variety and extreme to a certain extent don't we?

For me there is nothing better than waking up to a cold morning with a layer of snow on the ground, the trees coated in a thick white frost and the skies crystal clear - I love breathing in that cold air (so clean and fresh!), and I am rendered a little child when I see the first snow falling. Autumn is certainly beautiful but the colours are not very pronounced for most of us, compared to, say, New England, so there's no wonder it picks up little interest.

[cheeky_monkey]

the "Joe B got it right/wrong last year" is becoming a little repetetive. if anyone wants to continue harping on about him or any other of the 'infamous' forecasters, please do it here- http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74705-forecaster-bashingdefending-thread/

thanks

But it seems to be ok to say that JB got it right etc etc...woe be tide anyone who post about anything mild in a winter thread ...its quickly turning into the shambles that is the model thread during the winter period and becoming a topic to avoid...im sad to say

[syed2878]

who's track record stands out then? The only people's forecast i would give any credit to is. G.p chio with his strat work the met joe laminate floorie. And of corse jhon holmes for a balance view and keeping lid on things and o.m his posts.

[Gavin Hannah]

National Grid have published their winter outlook document. They don't go into much detail regards weather but they do summarize what they are being told.

Weather

7. The Met Office has ceased publication of their long term winter weather forecast. The

Met Office web site contains a short description of the weather up to 30 days ahead3

and guidance for contingency planners up to 3 months ahead4. The latest 3 month

outlook for October to December forecasts an increased risk of colder than average

weather.

8. Last winter’s weather illustrated the variability of winter weather. It was close to

seasonal normal for the 3 months from December to February but the second

warmest in National Grid’s 84 year weather history for the 6 months from October to

March. February 2012 was average for the whole month but this was split into cold

weather for the first two weeks and warm weather for the last two weeks.

9. Early warning of severe weather can be obtained from month-ahead ensemble

forecasts. The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts5 specialises

in producing these forecasts. Products based on them are available from a number of

weather service providers. Fifty separate forecasts are produced showing the range

of possibilities. The greater the number of forecasts showing the same outcome, the

greater the possibility of that outcome.

http://www.nationalgrid.com/NR/rdonlyres/623BA857-784F-4EFC-B16C-97EF37CE530D/56932/WinterOutlookReport2012Final.pdf

[Dorsetbred]

Methinks to avoid copyright restrictions, you should add the following:

© National Grid plc, all rights reserved

[jethro]

This is a silly question - it's like asking why do heat lovers enjoy temperatures in the mid 30's, or why do thunderstorm lovers enjoy chasing something that could potentially end their life - we're all weather enthusiasts here, aren't we? We're all here because we actually enjoy the weather and what it throws at us? We like variety and extreme to a certain extent don't we?

For me there is nothing better than waking up to a cold morning with a layer of snow on the ground, the trees coated in a thick white frost and the skies crystal clear - I love breathing in that cold air (so clean and fresh!), and I am rendered a little child when I see the first snow falling. Autumn is certainly beautiful but the colours are not very pronounced for most of us, compared to, say, New England, so there's no wonder it picks up little interest.

I don't think it is a silly question.

We may all have an interest in the weather, some more enthusiastic than others but it's fairly evident from reading this thread that enjoying whatever the weather throws at us doesn't feature very highly at all. Today has been a lovely Autumn day around here, glorious sunshine with the odd shower but I think the subtlety of Autumn and Spring weather gets lost in the desire for hot in Summer and bitterly cold in the Winter.

I find this annual hang wringing a confusing event. Folks say they want seasonal weather but then instead of enjoying the seasonal weather they're currently getting, they spend their time looking at the next season. All well and good looking for clues for the Winter but getting concerned that it may not turn out to live up to exaggerated expectations is a bit daft, especially when we're weeks away from Winter. I understand disappointment and woe come the end of January if it's been a mild season that far, but a long time prior to then?????

Don't get me wrong, I love snow as much as the next person, I'll be cheesed off if we don't see any this winter but looking for signs now and being disappointed if they're not there, is like being disappointed that you haven't found your ideal Christmas tree in August.

[Met4Cast]

Methinks to avoid copyright restrictions, you should add the following:

© National Grid plc, all rights reserved

No need, the linking to their site is sourcing them, therefore cannot be called as Copyright

[Barry12]

I don't think it is a silly question.

We may all have an interest in the weather, some more enthusiastic than others but it's fairly evident from reading this thread that enjoying whatever the weather throws at us doesn't feature very highly at all. Today has been a lovely Autumn day around here, glorious sunshine with the odd shower but I think the subtlety of Autumn and Spring weather gets lost in the desire for hot in Summer and bitterly cold in the Winter.

What's exciting or interesting about a sunny Autumn day?

Edited October 13, 2012 by Barry95

[jethro]

What's exciting or interesting about a sunny Autumn day?

Well for me it's included marvelling at how trees are magically transformed into jewel coloured wonders, the colours intensified with the Sun shining on the leaves. I've laughed at the dogs diving into piles of leaves, I'm pretty sure they were laughing back at me as I kicked the leaves for them to catch. A Squirrel busy squirrelling away conkers as fast as his little legs could carry him made me smile, especially the moment he glanced around to make sure no one was watching before he buried them. I buried some little Winter treasures for myself, I think of them as hope in a hard, round dried up shell, others know them as Crocuses. As for excitement, call me a sad old sod but I find it exciting finding some Sloes to make my Christmas Sloe Vodka and I'll enjoy the crumble made from the Blackberries I picked and it's always exciting to find a group of Fly Agaric, even if it does prompt a Mock Turtle impersonation.... I've got some Conkers ready to do battle, the last of the Roses are flowering, it's promising to be a fabulous sunset and there's just enough chill in the air to justify lighting a fire to curl up in front of later.

Autumn's about subtlety and appreciating the wind down from Summer before it all gets obliterated by the cold of Winter.

[Methuselah]

Can't we all just like what we like?