Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 3

[feb1991blizzard]

Negativity ? Its mid October ? So early December is T1200+.

I hope people dont take these December charts as serious but treat them as fun ?

Lets have negativity when a failed 'nailed' Easterly at T74 doesn't materialise.

When the Stratosphere doesnt play ball next week I guess thats winters over and we go into melt down.

Agreed, of course they are not going to verify at that range, but neither are the freddy kruegar dartboard runs certain to veryfy either, what people need to realise is even if the strat does not start of well temperature and ozone wise, it does not stop it becoming favourable at a later point, last years Jan / feb spell would batter us if it happened this year IMO.

[Cloud 10]

Here is my forecast for Winter 2012/13:

December: the coldest ever, the average temperature will be -500C (yes, that's right, lower than physics will allow), and everywhere in the world except Tristan da Cunha will be under 437feet of snow. Aliens will invade and we will all die.

January: mildest ever, Ronald McDonald will resurrect everyone from the dead, (except for Colonel Kentucky), and then Yellowstone will erupt and an asteroid the size of London will hit Earth simultaneously because of global warming. Everyone will die except for Homer Simpson who happens to walk into a bomb shelter at the time of the event.

February: average, with some colder shots at times. Homer gives birth to 7 billion humans and repopulates the Earth again, before spontaneously combusting. Unfortunately, monkeys take over Earth and some beef happens with them and the humans, before Earth implodes on itself. The NOAA term this an extreme weather event because of rising CO2 levels. Then, all the world leaders will turn into lizards and travel through a wormhole to Gliese 581c where they live happily ever after. Meanwhile, the Sun supernovas and everyone dies, again.

Is this a good forecast? Better than James Maddens' perhaps?

That's an interesting forecast,but will it snow in Carlisle?

[Relativistic]

That's an interesting forecast,but will it snow in Carlisle?

Maybe in July 2043, but until then it looks as if permanent heat exceeding 1000000C will be the prevailing weather pattern, whilst everywhere else will either be dead, overrun by aliens, or covered by 437feet of snow (except Tristan da Cunha of course, and possibly parts of Lietchenstein as well).

Edited October 13, 2012 by 22nov10blast

[Met4Cast]

Maybe in July 2043, but until then it looks as if permanent heat exceeding 1000000C will be the prevailing weather pattern, whilst everywhere else will either be dead, overrun by aliens, or covered by 437feet of snow (except Tristan da Cunha of course, and possibly parts of Lietchenstein as well).

Does the -PDO factor into that forecast?

[SnowObsessor90]

Agreed, of course they are not going to verify at that range, but neither are the freddy kruegar dartboard runs certain to veryfy either, what people need to realise is even if the strat does not start of well temperature and ozone wise, it does not stop it becoming favourable at a later point, last years Jan / feb spell would batter us if it happened this year IMO.

When was the last time we had a really potent blast in February btw?, now i know some people have said that they've tended to do quite well in terms of snowfall during that period in previous years but that's from more of an IMBY perspective.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Something I mentioned earlier in the thread when SST profile was mentioned. Now I don't know the lag time but I said that the anomalous warmth around Greenland was moving south and would this affect the blocking pattern. Well the models are throwing something interesting up. First SST map

Anomalous warmth off coast of newfoundland. Now ECM at T192

And GFS at t162

Note how both are building HP off Newfoundland sinking it down from Greenland. Is this a coincidence or are we heading there.

BFTP

Edited October 13, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BornFromTheVoid]

The -ve PDO has weakened substantially since summer, as has the cool SST pool to our north.

ENSO looking more like La Nina then El Nino at the moment.

[feb1991blizzard]

When was the last time we had a really potent blast in February btw?, now i know some people have said that they've tended to do quite well in terms of snowfall during that period in previous years but that's from more of an IMBY perspective.

I suppose it depends on what you call potent, i suppose i class potent as 91 feb style and mid 80s winters, 96 was very decent for me in the midlands back then, not only did we get belted (6) in early feb, we also got plenty of convective snow showers dotted about across the rest of the month although i dont remember the exact timescale, you have to say though that both feb 09 and 10 were reasonable although as you say that could be interpreted as an IMBY stonker for some but a catastrophy for others. i suppose feb 05 was it ??? and late winter 07 ???, at the time were probably classed as decent as i did not get more than 2 inches of lying snow between 97 and 07 in the midlands, moved out in 07 and yes you've guessed its got absolutely battered ever since.

Edited October 13, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[EML Network]

I think the signals are very mixed across the board for this Winter thus far, we seem to be having some very unusual patterns across many regions of both hemispheres and indeed mid latitudes as well.

It's been snowing in parts of Australia this week (for example)

Therefore it's hard to find any previous years with similar patterns and the models are all struggling to cope with this ''new and unusual'' data..and are not sure what implications this might have further down the line.

With that in mind were likely to be none the wiser as to how this Winter will unfold until it's on our doorstep...and even then if the unusual synoptics are still playing out, we might have to take things very much a month at a time.

Either way, it is at least interesting from a purely meteorological point of view and were likely to have an 'unusual Winter'... perhaps ?

Edited October 13, 2012 by EML Network

[TEITS]

Another typical knocking post thanks, TEITS.

Yet again you choose to use the uncertaintities of stratospheric influences on the troposphere as some sort of justification of criticism on those who do try to learn about the subject and have a far better degree of success than scribblings on old wallpaper rolls.

Very disappointing post from you and even more disappointing to see who has liked your post, although from some it isn't surprising.

Why resort to personal digs when my post wasn't directly aimed at you but our understanding of using teleconnections as a forecasting tool. I just used feb 2011 as an example of how the weather doesn't always play ball and sometimes the exact opposite can occur.

Lets be honest here its difficult enough to understand all the variables let alone how they interact with each other and in my opinion we are miles away from understanding this to make an accurate forecast. Its no coincidence that I cannot think of anyone who has been consistently been accurate in long range forecasting. This is why im surprised John Holmes liked your post because he says exactly the same!!

Im sorry if you thought I was knocking you but like I said in my previous post I don't take much notice of any long range forecast because in my opinion its impossible. So really im knocking long range forecasting in general.

[ZONE 51]

Sorry! see the link below for the forecast that was in this post. Thanks.

Edited October 14, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

http://www.wzforum.d....php?27,2519981

Same forecast as i have(i have now removed it from my post, please see link below) posted above, on the forum link above

---

The next link it should appear translated after a few seconds

http://www.microsoft....php?27,2519981

Edited October 14, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Catacol]

Very disappointing post from you and even more disappointing to see who has liked your post, although from some it isn't surprising.

Why resort to personal digs when my post wasn't directly aimed at you but our understanding of using teleconnections as a forecasting tool. I just used feb 2011 as an example of how the weather doesn't always play ball and sometimes the exact opposite can occur.

Lets be honest here its difficult enough to understand all the variables let alone how they interact with each other and in my opinion we are miles away from understanding this to make an accurate forecast. Its no coincidence that I cannot think of anyone who has been consistently been accurate in long range forecasting. This is why im surprised John Holmes liked your post because he says exactly the same!!

Im sorry if you thought I was knocking you but like I said in my previous post I don't take much notice of any long range forecast because in my opinion its impossible. So really im knocking long range forecasting in general.

I think TEITS the point is that you put out statements there which were very close to being factually incorrect, and then drew a conclusion from them which was therefore off target. By all means be dubious about long range forecasting... but to use 2 periods of UK weather where clearly the strat situation gave early indications of what was coming, or suggested in the case of last winter what was NOT coming, was strange. I followed those 2 periods closely and know very well what was being said and suggested in the strat thread. To new readers all you have done is rubbish a newish forecast tool that everyone acknowledges has merit - and therefore in my opinion the riposte you got was hardly surprising and probably justified. If you are going to dish it out, then be prepared to take some in return.

Edited October 14, 2012 by Catacol_Highlander

[ZONE 51]

After studying stratosphere data/information over the last few years i have found it is an important area of study, i will be glued to the information presented in the strat thread this late autumn and winter, what i might do is convert the technical info into something more easier to understand and post that in here, so you all know what is going on! but if you don't already then i do recommend reading the stratophere thread, always ask about what things mean, or look the words up and go back read the posts.

[Met4Cast]

Hmmmmm

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released--chart-prove-it.html

[chionomaniac]

Very disappointing post from you and even more disappointing to see who has liked your post, although from some it isn't surprising.

Why resort to personal digs when my post wasn't directly aimed at you but our understanding of using teleconnections as a forecasting tool. I just used feb 2011 as an example of how the weather doesn't always play ball and sometimes the exact opposite can occur.

Lets be honest here its difficult enough to understand all the variables let alone how they interact with each other and in my opinion we are miles away from understanding this to make an accurate forecast. Its no coincidence that I cannot think of anyone who has been consistently been accurate in long range forecasting. This is why im surprised John Holmes liked your post because he says exactly the same!!

Im sorry if you thought I was knocking you but like I said in my previous post I don't take much notice of any long range forecast because in my opinion its impossible. So really im knocking long range forecasting in general.

If you choose to name particular posters whilst challenging their methods of forecasters with particular instances, then, I am afraid, TEITS, you couldn't be being more personal if you tried. (You have just done it with JH!)

If that wasn't your intention then I accept your apologies, but would advise that in future that when you post your thoughts about long range forecasting, that you choose your words more carefully.

Furthermore, I think that certain posters my see some merit in attempting to understand more fully the teleconnective drivers of our weather, in order to be able to improve the length and depth of forecasts - otherwise we would still be in the age of the one day forecast.

Oh and the irony of your signature photos are not lost on me -- A cold spell, forecast, wrapped and delivered by a SSW!!

Edited October 14, 2012 by chionomaniac

[TEITS]

If you choose to name particular posters whilst challenging their methods of forecasters with particular instances, then, I am afraid, TEITS, you couldn't be being more personal if you tried. (You have just done it with JH!)

If that wasn't your intention then I accept your apologies, but would advise that in future that when you post your thoughts about long range forecasting, that you choose your words more carefully.

No I can assure you it wasn't my intention and I should of worded my post differently. I shall continue to follow the stratosphere thread avidly this winter but I remain rather sceptical. Im not sceptical of how influencial the stratosphere is but rather our understanding.

[Weather-history]

Here's my forecast based on hunches, past stats etc.

I believed it was only a matter of a time that April and indeed June and September who have for so long not returned a month that was at least 0.5C below the 1961-90 average would statistically have to do so. Infact all 3 did so in the same year!

I'm using that same train of thought with this winter forecast.

We have not had a Scandinavian high bringing a notable easterly during the height of winter for some years. Infact we've not a Scandinavian high dominated winter for some years of the 1995-96 type.

So I believe that we may see a notable cold snowy easterly during January of the late January 1996 type.

I think December will be fairly wet and unsettled but not specially mild, a bit like December 1993. The further north, you are the more wintry potential, there will be.

January will be much drier and anticyclonic with a cold snowy easterly brought by an intense Scandi high around mid to late month. A lot of snow in the east. As a consequence, it will be a cold month, close to January 2010 in terms of coldness, maybe colder.

When was the last time we saw a cold spell breakdown bringing a widespread snowfall? Well for February, during the early part of the month, this is what I will be going for but because of the nature of the Scandi high block, I am going for a February 1994 scenario where there were a couple of breakdowns but the block over Scandi high reasserted itself. So a fairly cold month with some spells of rain, sleet and snow, the intensity and location of the snowfalls depending how far the fronts can make into the UK.

[TEITS]

I think TEITS the point is that you put out statements there which were very close to being factually incorrect, a

Actually my comments were not factually incorrect. I recall Dec 2009 vividly because the Met O were predicting that cold spell weeks in advance during the 30 day forecast update. I remember many of us were puzzled because what they were forecasting was not being indicated by the models. Whatever the Met O spotted was not being picked up by anyone else. As for Feb 2011 and I just remember how stubborn the PV was over Greenland despite some very promising signals in the stratosphere forecasts.

All im saying is sometimes using teleconnections/stratosphere forecasts can be very useful forecasting tools but they aren't foolproof and can prove to be wrong due to our lack of understanding.

[bluearmy]

Actually my comments were not factually incorrect. I recall Dec 2009 vividly because the Met O were predicting that cold spell weeks in advance during the 30 day forecast update. I remember many of us were puzzled because what they were forecasting was not being indicated by the models. Whatever the Met O spotted was not being picked up by anyone else. As for Feb 2011 and I just remember how stubborn the PV was over Greenland despite some very promising signals in the stratosphere forecasts.

All im saying is sometimes using teleconnections/stratosphere forecasts can be very useful forecasting tools but they aren't foolproof and can prove to be wrong due to our lack of understanding.

I stand to be corrected but I recall the fi naefs picking up the Greenland anomoly pretty well at two weeks out. (or was that 2010).

Exeter have already said that their better picking out of cold spells in advance is down to their new strat forecasting model. The feb 2011 vortex remnant was a bit west of Greenland but in conjunction with the warmer air pushing up from the eastern seaboard, it continually fed a strong Atlantic jet. The fact that the main polar vortex became split is all you can ask of the strat effects causing the balls to fly into the air. Where the balls land when they fall is unknown.

[TEITS]

I stand to be corrected but I recall the fi naefs picking up the Greenland anomoly pretty well at two weeks out. (or was that 2010).

I think that was 2010 BA. During 2009 the GFS did consistently model a GH but that was around the +240 mark. What was startling at the time is how the Met O predicted the Dec 2009 cold spell back in late Nov and they consistently went with this forecast.

The Dec 2009 cold spell was the highlight for me during recent years because I remember on the 19th I had frequent heavy snow showers with a max temp of -4C. The type of snow falling was that lovely dry, powdery snow that accumulated exceptionally well.

[Fozfoster]

What's more fickle, weather or folk !!!!!

[chionomaniac]

I think that was 2010 BA. During 2009 the GFS did consistently model a GH but that was around the +240 mark. What was startling at the time is how the Met O predicted the Dec 2009 cold spell back in late Nov and they consistently went with this forecast.

The Dec 2009 cold spell was the highlight for me during recent years because I remember on the 19th I had frequent heavy snow showers with a max temp of -4C. The type of snow falling was that lovely dry, powdery snow that accumulated exceptionally well.

You keep mentioning this, but in 2009 we were getting to grips with some of the stratospheric connections. The early November stratospheric warming was well documented leading up to this type of post on Dec 1st 2009.

To suggest that it wasn't spotted is misleading at best.

[Midlands Ice Age]

What's more fickle, weather or folk !!!!!

Foz (and people)

Thanks for the anecdote to lighten the mood in here.

I am a relatively new guy on these sites, but I have been following the strat thread and the models for 2 years now and I think that the new work on the STRAT is beginning to bear fruit in terms of the predictions being made. However it IS a new science and as such is still a developing.

It is obvious to me that LRF is still developing and increasing its understanding. Becaue you guys can forecast the SSW's etc in advance, but not where it will happen YET.

I think you guys are not as far apart as emotions are leading you to believe.

So GP, CHIO, JH and all others, please keep going. I believe you are close to making massive improvements to our LRF techniques and eventually to the models. However, and I think this is where

TEITS and others are coming from, is that more work needs to be done.

PS Please don't berate me for this note as really believe you guys are on to something big.

MIA

[snow drift]

Actually my comments were not factually incorrect. I recall Dec 2009 vividly because the Met O were predicting that cold spell weeks in advance during the 30 day forecast update. I remember many of us were puzzled because what they were forecasting was not being indicated by the models. Whatever the Met O spotted was not being picked up by anyone else. As for Feb 2011 and I just remember how stubborn the PV was over Greenland despite some very promising signals in the stratosphere forecasts.

All im saying is sometimes using teleconnections/stratosphere forecasts can be very useful forecasting tools but they aren't foolproof and can prove to be wrong due to our lack of understanding.

Every model and every forecast aren't fool proof otherwise dismiss everything else and just go with the one that is right all the time. They are indicators to potential and nothing more. I have to say, all this arguing, not discussion is getting a bit tedious. Why do you not have one to one disagreements so that we do not need to read through loads of point scoring posts?