Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 3

[feb1991blizzard]

What's exciting or interesting about a sunny Autumn day?

I agree, in fact a lot on here are not going to like this but what is exciting about sun any day? i know people will say each to their own and that is true, i might banter people about their weather preferences but they are perfectly entitled to them, however, you cannot say that sun is exciting, it rises in the east, sets in the west, at a slightly different angle every day of the year, monitoring sunspot activity may be exciting for scientists but thats about it, convective downpours are exciting, thunderstorms are exciting, hurricanes are exciting because you dont know whats going to happen next, of course 99% of the people on this particular thread agree with me about what the most exciting weather of all is!!!! And Yes i would like really bitter weather all the way through but if you said to me now a couple of bitter weeks with stonking paggerings this winter then i snap your hand off, because i am also realistic.

[Paul]

This is the winter discussion thread, so can we keep it to that please - there are threads available to discuss weather preferences, current models and pretty much ever other weather related topic under the sun, so there's absolutely no reason to use this thread for anything other than the subject it was created for.

[Barry12]

A Squirrel busy squirrelling away conkers as fast as his little legs could carry him made me smile, especially the moment he glanced around to make sure no one was watching before he buried them.

Don't squirrels do that in every season?

[Aaron]

I don't think it is a silly question.

We may all have an interest in the weather, some more enthusiastic than others but it's fairly evident from reading this thread that enjoying whatever the weather throws at us doesn't feature very highly at all. Today has been a lovely Autumn day around here, glorious sunshine with the odd shower but I think the subtlety of Autumn and Spring weather gets lost in the desire for hot in Summer and bitterly cold in the Winter.

I find this annual hang wringing a confusing event. Folks say they want seasonal weather but then instead of enjoying the seasonal weather they're currently getting, they spend their time looking at the next season. All well and good looking for clues for the Winter but getting concerned that it may not turn out to live up to exaggerated expectations is a bit daft, especially when we're weeks away from Winter. I understand disappointment and woe come the end of January if it's been a mild season that far, but a long time prior to then?????

Don't get me wrong, I love snow as much as the next person, I'll be cheesed off if we don't see any this winter but looking for signs now and being disappointed if they're not there, is like being disappointed that you haven't found your ideal Christmas tree in August.

Fair enough, I am actually enjoying autumn a lot this year and have been busy snapping images, and I'm in no hurry for winter to arrive (though wouldn't complain if it arrived next week..), though I would like to see a snow flurry!

Edited October 13, 2012 by Aaron

[swfc]

I think the fact that autumn is a month of transition "as are all months"from a temp perspective then any weather conditions are to be expected.Im know fan of wind and rain and today for me is a great example of a nice autumns day.For all those getting excited at the projected northern blocking id just sit back and go with the flow and try not to get to hyper!!!lol.remember its mid october

[Eskimo]

Was just about to post....but I'll go back to regional

[Jayces]

Maybe the winter discussion thread next year should be started a week before winter or better yet a day before any cold / snow is forecast to cut down on the nunmber of people going into depression....

[shotski]

Saw two huge flocks of Lapwings today while out and about, a good sign that a cold winter is on the way.

[bobbydog]

Now is the winter of our discontent......

[TEITS]

IMO, you cannot 'build-in' bias; model runs start-off with real-time data?

Yes model runs start off with real-time data but each model is programmed differently. For example all models pretty much use the same data and yet the ECM is far more reliable than say the JMA. The reason for this is simply due to the programming quality of the ECM.

Lets be honest nobody here really understands how these computer models are programmed. Some seem to think they are simply fed a bunch of data and thats it. I don't believe a bias is deliberately programmed into these models but some models do seem to be biased due to the programming of this model. As an example the GFS has a tendancy of overcooking deep LP systems and this I feel is due to the software being used.

[Dorsetbred]

Agree with TEITS, it's not about "bias" it's how they define the parameters as their baseline and then how it runs the model program based on the predefined parameters. Each model is clearly based on a different set of parameters (which is why they are different in their result)

The thing is who & what defines the baseline parameters for the model, that's the catch 22?

The same thing would happen if you took xx number of people off this board, and asked them to define how they view a scenario and define the result, everyone would be different.

[TEITS]

Just add that I personally couldn't careless what anyone is predicting because at the end of the day it all comes to following a cold spell on the models and getting this within +72hrs.

If we look back at recent winters I can find quiet a few examples of how we need to understand the variables that dictate our climate. For example I revisited the thread after the Dec 2009 cold spell and even just 2 weeks away prior to the cold spell arriving nobody saw that cold spell coming, infact I remember a downbeat post from GP saying the opposite. We then had last Feb when I remember CH commenting on how awesome the stratosphere forecasts were and how prevelant N blocking could be and yet the opposite happened and we had a strong PV over Greenland.

So my point is if we struggle only a few weeks away, why worry in October!

Just add im not knocking GP or CH. However whilst I do believe teleconnections are the future of forecasting im not convinced anyone really understands these at the moment to make an accurate forecast. The only forecasts I have been impressed with these past few years is the Met O 30 day forecasts. You can't really go wrong with Steve M posts either.

Edited October 13, 2012 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Dorsetbred]

Saw two huge flocks of Lapwings today while out and about, a good sign that a cold winter is on the way.

Some research suggests contrary:

And I quote

"Lapwing is a good example of a species that can be affected by severe cold weather, causing populations on the Continent to evacuate their traditional wintering areas and move westwards to Britain and Ireland in search of milder conditions. They usually return when the conditions improve, often before the spring"

So winter in Europe may well be cold, but if they are heading this way then the suggestion is for the UK to be milder..

[UV-RAY]

Yes model runs start off with real-time data but each model is programmed differently. For example all models pretty much use the same data and yet the ECM is far more reliable than say the JMA. The reason for this is simply due to the programming quality of the ECM.

Lets be honest nobody here really understands how these computer models are programmed. Some seem to think they are simply fed a bunch of data and thats it. I don't believe a bias is deliberately programmed into these models but some models do seem to be biased due to the programming of this model. As an example the GFS has a tendancy of overcooking deep LP systems and this I feel is due to the software being used.

This is really what I was alluding to, I wasn't trying to imply that there was a deliberate bias just that in a warming world then surely this would be built into a model for LRF? Anyway that's the last on this subject from me.

[Dorsetbred]

So my point is if we struggle only a few weeks away, why worry in October!

Like you I'm not even focused on anything beyond next week and a bit.

The fun is seeing it develop, so like you lets wait and see.

Edited October 13, 2012 by Dorsetbred

[BornFromTheVoid]

Now is the winter of our discontent......

Things looking good then

Hoping I can catch a few more of these this winter

The rotation is more clear on full screen...

[Methuselah]

Saw two huge flocks of Lapwings today while out and about, a good sign that a cold winter is on the way.

You haven't seen Bill Farkin, have you?

[March Blizzard]

If I had my way I'd have the upcoming winter to resemble Dec 2010, Jan 1963 and Feb 1947...that would be great. I can fully understand why some of the older members of NW who may have experienced the colder winters of the 20th century wouldn't want the same, but as a 23 year old I've had the misfortune of enduring rampant mildness in winter for my whole life with only a few exceptions.

I would be very grateful to experience just one consistently very cold winter over 3 months. The last few years have shown us it is still possible and, in a way, wetted the appetite for it.

Ultimately, though, I'm really not too fussed what winter 2012/13 has in store. It is what it is. If it is mild I hope plenty of Atlantic storms make up for it, if it is cold I hope we see deep snowfall and record cold. All types of weather have their charm and I'm sure to enjoy the winter regardless of the weather.

[UV-RAY]

You haven't seen Bill Farkin, have you?

Is he still around?

[Chess01]

I wouldn't mind a week of light snow for the week before Christmas just a dusting so it doesn't affect travel and going places over Christmas then one proper cold shot in jan then some proper Atlantic storms for the end of jan and one last cold spell in feb . That's really a average winter which the uk hasn't had for the many years so people need to stop worrying about the current Sitution because even if it does turn out average it will atleast give a few decent snowfalls which we haven't had expect from 09 and 10

[Alan Medlock Valley]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn38417.png nothing record breakingly warm or cold about those temps across Europe at this time of year, so don't despair.

Looks like Belarus, Ukraine, Russia and some of the Baltic countries will see their first measurable snowfalls. Again nothing strange about that at the close of October.

[chionomaniac]

Just add that I personally couldn't careless what anyone is predicting because at the end of the day it all comes to following a cold spell on the models and getting this within +72hrs.

If we look back at recent winters I can find quiet a few examples of how we need to understand the variables that dictate our climate. For example I revisited the thread after the Dec 2009 cold spell and even just 2 weeks away prior to the cold spell arriving nobody saw that cold spell coming, infact I remember a downbeat post from GP saying the opposite. We then had last Feb when I remember CH commenting on how awesome the stratosphere forecasts were and how prevelant N blocking could be and yet the opposite happened and we had a strong PV over Greenland.

So my point is if we struggle only a few weeks away, why worry in October!

Just add im not knocking GP or CH. However whilst I do believe teleconnections are the future of forecasting im not convinced anyone really understands these at the moment to make an accurate forecast. The only forecasts I have been impressed with these past few years is the Met O 30 day forecasts. You can't really go wrong with Steve M posts either.

Another typical knocking post thanks, TEITS.

Yet again you choose to use the uncertaintities of stratospheric influences on the troposphere as some sort of justification of criticism on those who do try to learn about the subject and have a far better degree of success than scribblings on old wallpaper rolls.

To clarify:

In 2009, well before any blocking was modelled in the troposphere the split that caused the blocking was spotted in the stratosphere and this was heralded as being important and no transient split. It was no surprise to see the cold outbreak for those following the strat thread. The winter before following the SSW the easterly cold outbreak at the end of January 2009 was correctly forecast as being possible despite many people refusing to believe that the stratosphere actually caused this.

Last year I think that I suggested that there would be no possibility of any blocking pattern until the cold stratsopheric conditions broke. I even suggested that this would occur in January. Sure enough a warming occurred leading to a cold outbreak with significant cold just east of us over mainland Europe. Unfortunately, the blocking did not persist due to the direction of the EP flux (as I am sure that you are already aware having read last years thread and quoted so 'accurately'). I find it pecular that you should highlight this area of the stratosphere forecast and not how accurate the forecast for the previous months were.

I have said consistently repeated that a cold stratosphere will lead to a strong polar vortex, and that a warmer stratosphere will lead to a more disrupted and amplified tropospheric pattern - though this is by no means a guarantee of cold reaching our shores. It sems that most accept this and realise that it is not an exact science.

It is easy to criticise TEITS, but less easy to get to grips with a complex but important part of the meteorological jigsaw.

I'll leave you to your wallpaper.

Edited October 13, 2012 by chionomaniac

[georgiedre]

Some of my friends inform me of snowfall on the highest tops of snowdonia today which was a surprise... Hopefully the start of things to come during this winter...

[Midlands Ice Age]

I have finally manged to create a post. Sorry about the one above. I was trying to use it to reply, but it wouldn't let add any comments. Anyone any ideas?

I was about to say that it was lovely to see the impatience of youth shown by Snow Blizzard.

As a retired software developer and program writer of 45 years (Yes I was around in 47 and saw 62/63 and all the other cold weather of the last century it was not pleasant particularly 62/63, but I do believe we are better prepared for most things (in terms of life support), but a genuine blizzard would cause a lot of trouble. (I' ve only experienced 2 in the UK in my time.

The other point I was going to make in the debate about models is that larger errors and hence imperfections are caused by things which are ommitted from code. I quickly discovered and suggest that until we know and understand all the parameters which can effect weather (and then much further out onto climate) the models are not worth very much for LRF.

You only have to look at CMS to see how wild and woolly the output can become, after just one month

We are getting somewhere in being able to predict a few days ahead (say 2- 4), but further than that, please take it with a pinch of salt.

MIA

[bluearmy]

MIA, you are right if you want very high accuracy but in general terms, 6 or 7 days is pretty good and beyond that, out to 12 days, looking at all the output daily gives you a strong feel for what modelling seems feasible and what doesn't. i guess it depends 'how much salt fits in your pinch' .