Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 3

[March Blizzard]

I assume you mean me? (Snow Blizzard?) I'm not impatient about anything, I said I wasn't really fussed, but for purely selfish reasons I would love to experience a bitter winter on par with the coldest of the 20th century at some point.

[Methuselah]

Hi MIA,

You need to press the 'Quote' button. Then you can type your own comments under what should appear in quotes...Then press ...

[bobbydog]

Things looking good then

Hoping I can catch a few more of these this winter

The rotation is more clear on full screen...

thats cool. was that you filming?

[liam300]

I wouldn't mind a week of light snow for the week before Christmas just a dusting so it doesn't affect travel and going places over Christmas then one proper cold shot in jan then some proper Atlantic storms for the end of jan and one last cold spell in feb . That's really a average winter which the uk hasn't had for the many years so people need to stop worrying about the current Sitution because even if it does turn out average it will atleast give a few decent snowfalls which we haven't had expect from 09 and 10

Speak for yourself i live on the south coast.

Edited October 13, 2012 by liam300

[Midlands Ice Age]

Bluearmy,

You too are correct, I was suggesting that 5 days and beyond are not currently totally accurate, but as you say they will become suggestive of an eventual outcome and may well allow trends to be spotted.

I still however think the some parameters are not yet understood and hopefuly people on here bringing then to the forefront (such as CHio's and GP's work ) will we have a chance of getting a total feel.

MIA

[Polar Maritime]

thats cool. was that you filming?

I have seen these rotations many times on the Scottish mountains. They are pretty exiting to watch !

[stewfox]

I have said consistently repeated that a cold stratosphere will lead to a strong polar vortex, and that a warmer stratosphere will lead to a more disrupted and amplified tropospheric pattern - though this is by no means a guarantee of cold reaching our shores. It sems that most accept this and realise that it is not an exact science.

It is easy to criticise TEITS, but less easy to get to grips with a complex but important part of the meteorological jigsaw.

I'll leave you to your wallpaper.

I'm sure the first people who set sail were constantly told 'you are going to fall off the Earth'.

Its early days re our understanding but I'm sure most appreciate your posts re Stratosphere/teleconnections and probably 'the cold reaching our shores' we often forget our shores are 242.900 sq kms v 510,072,000 sq kms for the globe ie.0.00047620728 and IMBY is only 0.00000056784

Edited October 13, 2012 by stewfox

[bobbydog]

oh for god's sake, now even our resident experts are arguing. i was a bit premature with my earlier post-

NOW is the winter of our discontent......

[Midlands Ice Age]

Hi MIA,

You need to press the 'Quote' button. Then you can type your own comments under what should appear in quotes...Then press ...

Hi MIA,

You need to press the 'Quote' button. Then you can type your own comments under what should appear in quotes...Then press ...

Hi RP,

Just tried it on your helpful repost

I hope this works OK.

I have used it before, but it jusn't wouldn't unlock within the frame.

MIA

[UV-RAY]

Another typical knocking post thanks, TEITS.

Yet again you choose to use the uncertaintities of stratospheric influences on the troposphere as some sort of justification of criticism on those who do try to learn about the subject and have a far better degree of success than scribblings on old wallpaper rolls.

To clarify:

In 2009, well before any blocking was modelled in the troposphere the split that caused the blocking was spotted in the stratosphere and this was heralded as being important and no transient split. It was no surprise to see the cold outbreak for those following the strat thread. The winter before following the SSW the easterly cold outbreak at the end of January 2009 was correctly forecast as being possible despite many people refusing to believe that the stratosphere actually caused this.

Last year I think that I suggested that there would be no possibility of any blocking pattern until the cold stratsopheric conditions broke. I even suggested that this would occur in January. Sure enough a warming occurred leading to a cold outbreak with significant cold just east of us over mainland Europe. Unfortunately, the blocking did not persist due to the direction of the EP flux (as I am sure that you are already aware having read last years thread and quoted so 'accurately'). I find it pecular that you should highlight this area of the stratosphere forecast and not how accurate the forecast for the previous months were.

I have said consistently repeated that a cold stratosphere will lead to a strong polar vortex, and that a warmer stratosphere will lead to a more disrupted and amplified tropospheric pattern - though this is by no means a guarantee of cold reaching our shores. It sems that most accept this and realise that it is not an exact science.

It is easy to criticise TEITS, but less easy to get to grips with a complex but important part of the meteorological jigsaw.

I'll leave you to your wallpaper.

I wouldn't say he was knocking you Chion sceptical yes, as was I until last winter. I do believe though that events in the stratosphere don't always guarantee cold as you've already stated, and other forcings do appear to override warming events at times. Please don't take any scepticism as criticism.

[BornFromTheVoid]

thats cool. was that you filming?

yep, 'twas myself. Got HD video on the camera I got just after taking that, so hoping to get some better clips this winter.

[bobbydog]

yep, 'twas myself. Got HD video on the camera I got just after taking that, so hoping to get some better clips this winter.

nice- lets hope you don't have to go very far to get some good shots!!

[lorenzo]

Please take a look overhere. http://www.wzforum.d....php?27,2519981 German written forecast for this winter.

Regrettably I do not read or speak German and google translate does not do this justice, paragraphs are lost in translation.

Can anyone do a summary of the thoughts in the link?

(Skulks back into corner ashamed of not being multi-lingual)

[shotski]

Some research suggests contrary:

And I quote

"Lapwing is a good example of a species that can be affected by severe cold weather, causing populations on the Continent to evacuate their traditional wintering areas and move westwards to Britain and Ireland in search of milder conditions. They usually return when the conditions improve, often before the spring"

So winter in Europe may well be cold, but if they are heading this way then the suggestion is for the UK to be milder..

This is true, and I should have stated (as I did on my profile) that this would be the continent. But a cold european winter would normaly suggest we

are in for a colder than average winter. Also the Uk will nearly always be milder in a cold European winter.

[Rocheydub]

Well for me it's included marvelling at how trees are magically transformed into jewel coloured wonders, the colours intensified with the Sun shining on the leaves. I've laughed at the dogs diving into piles of leaves, I'm pretty sure they were laughing back at me as I kicked the leaves for them to catch. A Squirrel busy squirrelling away conkers as fast as his little legs could carry him made me smile, especially the moment he glanced around to make sure no one was watching before he buried them. I buried some little Winter treasures for myself, I think of them as hope in a hard, round dried up shell, others know them as Crocuses. As for excitement, call me a sad old sod but I find it exciting finding some Sloes to make my Christmas Sloe Vodka and I'll enjoy the crumble made from the Blackberries I picked and it's always exciting to find a group of Fly Agaric, even if it does prompt a Mock Turtle impersonation.... I've got some Conkers ready to do battle, the last of the Roses are flowering, it's promising to be a fabulous sunset and there's just enough chill in the air to justify lighting a fire to curl up in front of later.

Autumn's about subtlety and appreciating the wind down from Summer before it all gets obliterated by the cold of Winter.

Sorry for repeating a thank you, and I know this is slightly off topic... But this is a fantastic post. Poetic and heart felt. Well done dude. You have scribed exactly how I feel about all seasons.

[johnholmes]

I

I was about to say that it was lovely to see the impatience of youth shown by Snow Blizzard.

As a retired software developer and program writer of 45 years (Yes I was around in 47 and saw 62/63 and all the other cold weather of the last century it was not pleasant particularly 62/63, but I do believe we are better prepared for most things (in terms

MIA

wow someone almost as old as me!

I do not really agree with your comment about not being able to predict beyond about 4 days. We can (I use the we to encompass all forecasters amateur and professional) and do regularly. What the reader has to be prepared for is that obviously our confidence as the D+ gets higher is lower. To offset this we stop giving specifics and give generlaisations. I think if you follow my thread about 500mb anomaly charts you may see what I am driving at. And of course there are those who do not believe those either which is why I am now into the 10th month of doing checks and posting the results for everyone to see. So no I don't agree we cannot forecast as far ahead as you suggest just that the emphasis goes from specific to general.

[Methuselah]

Did you press the 'quote' button twice MIA?

[Methuselah]

Is he still around?

Oh dear, my bad; his were grebes, not lapwings. Oh well, back to the seagulls I guess!

[Don]

There seems to be a trend developing in the models for a warm up for the last third of October so a bit of a turn around! However, I'm not particularly fussed about this as far as winter goes. The last week of October 2009 was very warm for the time of year with exceptionally high night time minimas (a stark contrast from 12 months earlier!) As advised I will wait until late October to start following the strat thread and if things start to look unfavourable here then this will be the time to start getting more concerned about winter!

[If Wishes made Weather]

Regrettably I do not read or speak German and google translate does not do this justice, paragraphs are lost in translation.

Can anyone do a summary of the thoughts in the link?

(Skulks back into corner ashamed of not being multi-lingual)

Here you go:

the author has looked at correlations between certain measurements. That is what the three pictures are each time.

The headings that he has considered are:

CAR:Caribbean SST Index

NTA:North Tropical Atlantic Index

TNA:Tropical Northern Atlantic Index

Atlantic Tripole SST EOF

Nino 3.4: East Central Tropical Pacific SST

Schnee - und Eisausdehnung NH:

AMM: Atlantic Meridional Mode

PMM:

AMO: Atlantic multidecadal Oscillation

PDO: Pacific Decadal Oscillation

QBO: Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

Globally Integrated Angular Momentum Index:

AAO: Antarctic Oscillation

PNA: Pacific-North America Index

Stratosphäre

I won't translate the headings and maps above, but his conclusions (paraphrased) are:

"I would like to end with a comparison to winter 2009/2010. The most similarly I find is with the pressure and geopotential. In particular there is a good correlation and similarlty (also with the long wave pattern with: 2009/1957/1997/1986/1968.

- tropical SSTs Atlantik (2009 slightly positive Indices, 2012 clearly positive)

-ENSO (2009 EL Nino, 2012 slight to neutral El Nino)

-AMM

-AMO

-QBO Zyklus

-Ice reduction 2009 (In summer it wasnt at a minimum, but in autumn it has been the lowest amount ever !)

-Geopotential for October

-Stratosphäre 100hPa und teils unter 50hPa

-negative NAO October and predominantly negative throughout the year (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table)

-negative AO Oktober, positive AO September (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table)

- How the years temperatures have been throughout the year: Warm spring, cool to average June, wet July, dry adn warm August/Sepetmber and a tending to wet October.

the QBO-cycle compares almost 1:1, in the under stratosphere there is eastwind andd in the mid to upper stratosphere trasfer to west wind. In 2009/10 we were in a sun-spot minimum which in combination with a QBD east phase leads to sudden warmings. 2012/13 will have under average sunspots registered. The current sub-spot cycle will, for the first time in 100 years fall out weakly. Similar conditions existed in the cold time of 1880-1920 ( [solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov] ). Thus, at least according to te esun-spot cycle we are not in a classic cold winter like 2009/10, but rather in one that woud lsuggest SSW's."

[Relativistic]

Here is my forecast for Winter 2012/13:

December: the coldest ever, the average temperature will be -500C (yes, that's right, lower than physics will allow), and everywhere in the world except Tristan da Cunha will be under 437feet of snow. Aliens will invade and we will all die.

January: mildest ever, Ronald McDonald will resurrect everyone from the dead, (except for Colonel Kentucky), and then Yellowstone will erupt and an asteroid the size of London will hit Earth simultaneously because of global warming. Everyone will die except for Homer Simpson who happens to walk into a bomb shelter at the time of the event.

February: average, with some colder shots at times. Homer gives birth to 7 billion humans and repopulates the Earth again, before spontaneously combusting. Unfortunately, monkeys take over Earth and some beef happens with them and the humans, before Earth implodes on itself. The NOAA term this an extreme weather event because of rising CO2 levels. Then, all the world leaders will turn into lizards and travel through a wormhole to Gliese 581c where they live happily ever after. Meanwhile, the Sun supernovas and everyone dies, again.

Is this a good forecast? Better than James Maddens' perhaps?

[andy100]

Here is my forecast for Winter 2012/13:

December: the coldest ever, the average temperature will be -500C (yes, that's right, lower than physics will allow), and everywhere in the world except Tristan da Cunha will be under 437feet of snow. Aliens will invade and we will all die.

January: mildest ever, Ronald McDonald will resurrect everyone from the dead, (except for Colonel Kentucky), and then Yellowstone will erupt and an asteroid the size of London will hit Earth simultaneously because of global warming. Everyone will die except for Homer Simpson who happens to walk into a bomb shelter at the time of the event.

February: average, with some colder shots at times. Homer gives birth to 7 billion humans and repopulates the Earth again, before spontaneously combusting. Unfortunately, monkeys take over Earth and some beef happens with them and the humans, before Earth implodes on itself. The NOAA term this an extreme weather event because of rising CO2 levels. Then, all the world leaders will turn into lizards and travel through a wormhole to Gliese 581c where they live happily ever after. Meanwhile, the Sun supernovas and everyone dies, again.

Is this a good forecast? Better than James Maddens' perhaps?

Hahahhahaha

[feb1991blizzard]

Lets lighten the mood up a bit, End of November into december blocking to the North, does the timeline ring any bells?, ok not perfect and i suspect there is not the -10 uppers with these charts but still signs are there. No Need for any negativity YET.

EDIT : Ive broken my golden rule and pasted the wrong charts so if these are showing a bartlett at any point in the future, they were not when i posted them, they were showing a blocking pattern to our North.

Edited October 13, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Aaron]

This is true, and I should have stated (as I did on my profile) that this would be the continent. But a cold european winter would normaly suggest we

are in for a colder than average winter. Also the Uk will nearly always be milder in a cold European winter.

Most of the continent is colder than the UK in the winter, from Bulgaria to northern Scandinavia, from Germany to western Russia, so why is it any surprise that Lapwings come here for milder weather when we are milder anyway?

[stewfox]

Lets lighten the mood up a bit, End of November into december blocking to the North, does the timeline ring any bells?, ok not perfect and i suspect there is not the -10 uppers with these charts but still signs are there. No Need for any negativity YET.

Negativity ? Its mid October ? So early December is T1200+.

I hope people dont take these December charts as serious but treat them as fun ?

Lets have negativity when a failed 'nailed' Easterly at T74 doesn't materialise.

When the Stratosphere doesnt play ball next week I guess thats winters over and we go into melt down.