Winter 2012/13 Pt 4... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes...

[Aaron]

You didn't have lying snow in Leeds in Oct 2008? we only had about an inch here at best, London had an inch like it says in the link on my post further up.

Pretty sure we didn't at all. I'm sure it's entirely possible, and has almost certainly occurred in the past, but not in my lifetime.

[Alan Medlock Valley]

Yes the New York argument is BS, your deffo right there although i do remember a South Westerly delivering an inch of low level snow once though, weird synoptics, not sure if 94 or 95, jan i think, it was polar air fed down the Irish sea all the way down to Cornwall then looped around into Western and South West England and South Wales, obviously moderated by the atlantic but not enough to stop it falling as snow.

Yes and the one thing I forgot to mention is the UK has an advantage in terms of snow but it is our usual foe - the sea!, when cold air is in place and warmer air from the Atlantic and associated systems bumping into the cold "aloft" then this can cause convection and bring quite widespread streamers - As we have seen over the past 4 years or so on a number of occasions and localities.

It is a bit like in the US with the Great Lakes and Lake Effect snow causing streamers there. So sometimes the seas can be an advantage, not so much for bone chilling cold like is seen on the Continent due to huge landmass over there stopping the milder Atlantic infuence air but in terms of sheer snowfall over here.

Edited October 16, 2012 by Alan Medlock Valley

[Harve]

interesting article - http://www.dailymail...t-prove-it.html

And look at the site it's coming from, which should make it clear it's a poor article. There is, in fact, no met office report.

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/10/14/met-office-in-the-media-14-october-2012/

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes and the one thing I forgot to mention is the UK has an advantage in terms of snow but it is our usual foe - the sea!, when cold air is in place and warmer air from the Atlantic and associated systems bumping into the cold "aloft" then this can cause convection and bring quite widespread streamers - As we have seen over the past 4 years or so on a number of occasions and localities.

It is a bit like in the US with the Great Lakes and Lake Effect snow causing streamers there. So sometimes the seas can be an advantage, not so much for bone chilling cold like is seen on the Continent due to huge landmass over there stopping the milder Atlantic infuence air but in terms of sheer snowfall over here.

Agreed. there is no reason why we cannot get paralised for months on end with the right upper pattern persisting but we have such a small margin for error to get the potent cold in and when its not potent cold we always seem to be on the wrong side of marginality, we seem to have just missed out so many times in the 90s/ 00s although as you say that changed in the late naughties, hopefully last year was just a blip, sickening watching all that potent cold going a few hundred miles south.

Edited October 16, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[J10]

Yes the New York argument is BS, your deffo right there although i do remember a South Westerly delivering an inch of low level snow once though, weird synoptics, not sure if 94 or 95, jan i think, it was polar air fed down the Irish sea all the way down to Cornwall then looped around into Western and South West England and South Wales, obviously moderated by the atlantic but not enough to stop it falling as snow.

We also had some snow with South Westerlies around a few years ago, in Feb 2009, however they were quite short draw SW.

Yes and the one thing I forgot to mention is the UK has an advantage in terms of snow but it is our usual foe - the sea!, when cold air is in place and warmer air from the Atlantic and associated systems bumping into the cold "aloft" then this can cause convection and bring quite widespread streamers - As we have seen over the past 4 years or so on a number of occasions and localities.

It is a bit like in the US with the Great Lakes and Lake Effect snow causing streamers there. So sometimes the seas can be an advantage, not so much for bone chilling cold like is seen on the Continent due to huge landmass over there stopping the milder Atlantic infuence air but in terms of sheer snowfall over here.

Indeed Snow Steamers can give quite a lot of snow showers for South Wales and South west England but Northern Blocking is needed for this, hopefully we will a bit luckier this year in this regard .

Edited October 16, 2012 by Jackone

[feb1991blizzard]

The 18z is going to be a stonker, pattern further West than 12z, more margin for error, genuine snow chance for low levels in the NE coming up here.

Not quite, very promising start to model watching though, hardly any pink on PPN charts until late November last year, just a hunch but i feel we will in a few weeks time at least in FI anyway, be seeing some deep pinks over wide areas.

Edited October 16, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Liam J]

The 18z is going to be a stonker, pattern further West than 12z, more margin for error, genuine snow chance for low levels in the NE coming up here.

Mainly over higher ground In the far N/NE of Scotland where the -6c iso reaches before retreating slightly. As we are still in October SST's would cause mixing at lower coastal levels - I'd like to see at least -8c to -10c uppers this early in the season!

All speculation at this stage....

[feb1991blizzard]

Mainly over higher ground In the far N/NE of Scotland where the -6c iso reaches before retreating slightly. As we are still in October SST's would cause mixing at lower coastal levels - I'd like to see at least -8c to -10c uppers this early in the season!

All speculation at this stage....

Yes, as above Liam, it did not quite materialise, atlantic trough to the SE was the stopper IMO and pattern ended up further east.

[Slowpoke]

If only it were mid-late November onwards... It'd be a cracking cold snap!

[summer blizzard]

Pretty sure we didn't at all. I'm sure it's entirely possible, and has almost certainly occurred in the past, but not in my lifetime.

We had lying snow in Oct 2000 (it was a front not showers so i'm almost sure you will have done as well), i recall falling snow a few years ago briefly (may have been 2008).

[summer blizzard]

It was Oct 30th..

Watch from 2 minutes in to 6 minutes.

[Chris D]

I can safely say this is by far the most amount of comments I have seen on a Winter thread this early. (Well since Jan 2009 anyway haha)

Bring it on, I say!

[Ruzzi]

A few runs of consistency now in bringing in this Northerly around the 25th. It is still 8 days away ofcourse so must be taken with a good handful of salt, but it's nice to see -10 uppers making it into scotland Interesting next few days of watching ...

[weather is fun]

Well brian gaze saying we may need a sledge for halloween instead of a broomstick. Piers corbyn saying end of october cold spell. Then goes on to mention that november will be a rollercoaster of a month. Sounds like intresting times ahead. But im still trying to stop myself from getting too excited regarding snow and cold but must admit it does look good so far. Lets just hope the snow gods shine on us this winter lol.

[Weather-history]

31st October 1878.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Well brian gaze saying we may need a sledge for halloween instead of a broomstick. Piers corbyn saying end of october cold spell. Then goes on to mention that november will be a rollercoaster of a month. Sounds like intresting times ahead. But im still trying to stop myself from getting too excited regarding snow and cold but must admit it does look good so far. Lets just hope the snow gods shine on us this winter lol.

Please...ignore Piers Corbyn.

[Barry12]

White Halloween, I doubt that. Just look at Piers he mad.

[Methuselah]

Well brian gaze saying we may need a sledge for halloween instead of a broomstick. Piers corbyn saying end of october cold spell. Then goes on to mention that november will be a rollercoaster of a month. Sounds like intresting times ahead. But im still trying to stop myself from getting too excited regarding snow and cold but must admit it does look good so far. Lets just hope the snow gods shine on us this winter lol.

The first of many Autumnal solar sausages?

[Barry12]

We didn't snow here in October 2008.

[The watcher]

31st October 1878.

If only eh! A sub 2c winter with plenty of snow opportunity.

[syed2878]

@andimusic interesting article how ever i've no dout that this story will be discredited, 1 most on this forum r pro gw. 2 the stories published in the dailymail and sadly because the mail do print whild stories that makes1 cringe. How ever i do think they got this1!.

[feb1991blizzard]

@andimusic interesting article how ever i've no dout that this story will be discredited, 1 most on this forum r pro gw. 2 the stories published in the dailymail and sadly because the mail do print whild stories that makes1 cringe. How ever i do think they got this1!.

People are PRO global warming because they want to put and end to people being able to drive a decent car without being taxed to the hilt, the daily mail, daily express are trying to redress the balance for the taxpayers of this country, however biased and sensationalist they are, it is no different to papers like the Guardian being on the other side.

[BornFromTheVoid]

People are PRO global warming because they want to put and end to people being able to drive a decent car without being taxed to the hilt, the daily mail, daily express are trying to redress the balance for the taxpayers of this country, however biased and sensationalist they are, it is no different to papers like the Guardian being on the other side.

....must..... not... react...

Edited October 17, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[Harve]

@andimusic interesting article how ever i've no dout that this story will be discredited, 1 most on this forum r pro gw. 2 the stories published in the dailymail and sadly because the mail do print whild stories that makes1 cringe. How ever i do think they got this1!.

You think they've got this one? The lies start on the headline: there was no met office report: http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/10/14/met-office-in-the-media-14-october-2012/.

Since the view that the world has shown no warming in the last 16 years is one held by quite a few 'keyboard scientists', it's not a lie as such. However, it is still wrong. The link above explains how. The bottom line is that you can show many different trends depending on when you start plotting data and when you finish.

The most severe problems begin with the second headline of the article, as global warming is dismissed as "the high-flown theories of bourgeois Left-wing academics" (John Hayes, Conservative Energy Minister). It really is a shame that science and politics become so intertwined. But it's perhaps inevitable given the huge consequences some findings bring and that these findings often conflict with people's own interests. If AGW theories brought no consequences, I suggest there would be little to no controversy about it.

[Eskimo]

A bit of fun...on the left hand side set the time to 144hours and then adjust the speed, watch those oranges (snow) come tumbling south!

http://www.meteox.com/forecastloop.aspx?type=1