Winter 2012/13 Pt 4... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes...

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Some good output both on Med range and long range models the last few days, however, here is an example of what the winter could be like if it all goes belly up, makes 1989 look good.

http://www.meteociel...0&carte=1&run=0

Went all the way up until nearly end jan, not one decent wavelength pattern.

That PV over Greenland looks even worse than it did last year. A nightmare for any cold weather fan here in the UK.

[feb1991blizzard]

That PV over Greenland looks even worse than it did last year. A nightmare for any cold weather fan here in the UK.

Did you go right the way through? i reckon that would be the most snowless winter ever for large areas of the Southern Half. It updates within the next hour though thankfully!

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Did you go right the way through? i reckon that would be the most snowless winter ever for large areas of the Southern Half. It updates within the next hour though thankfully!

I couldn't face it lol, thank god it will now doubt of changed in an hours time...heres hoping for it to revert to those monster cold charts its been churming out recently.

[feb1991blizzard]

I couldn't face it lol, thank god it will now doubt of changed in an hours time...heres hoping for it to revert to those monster cold charts its been churming out recently.

Fear not, run up to and including xmas a complete whiteout.

http://www.meteociel...=0&mode=0&run=4

And the end of jan none to shabby either, only a few weeks now untill we are seeing these poping up in Medium Range output, how many will make it into the reliable though is the question on everyones lips.

Edited October 17, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Snowy782]

I've been following this for a while now and built up the courage to make an account. I have no clue what all the charts mean and I would love to learn more about forecasting.

I really hope we get a snowy winters this year, I was very disappointed by the mild winter and even when we did get snow, it was light powdery stuff only accumulating to 2-3 cm. Good to see we are heading in the right direction

[feb1991blizzard]

I've been following this for a while now and built up the courage to make an account. I have no clue what all the charts mean and I would love to learn more about forecasting.

I really hope we get a snowy winters this year, I was very disappointed by the mild winter and even when we did get snow, it was light powdery stuff only accumulating to 2-3 cm. Good to see we are heading in the right direction

Welcome to the forum and happy snow hunting!!!

[in the vale]

That CFS run seems to throw all sorts at us between late Dec and mid Jan. Something for everyone perhaps?

[EML Network]

Some positive signs today from many quarters, in some ways I wish I hadn't started looking into this Winters prospects so early in the season, I mean it was Mid September when I started to think about Winter, feel like I've been spending way too many hours looking at charts and have spent less time on my own business..oops !

Think next Winter i'll not start to look at things until November....it's just too addictive !!

[Cloud 10]

An especially good chart posted above with very low thicknesses and a classic

"heart" shaped blocking high in the Atlantic.

-12 upper air...

ice day...

[feb1991blizzard]

That CFS run seems to throw all sorts at us between late Dec and mid Jan. Something for everyone perhaps?

I will tell you what i have noticed lately, when i come to post my selection of cracking output at night, it seems nothing has been posted from the its prev days 12z run, but i seem to be finding loads worth posting on the 18z, wheras a few weeks ago there seemed to be a fair bit on the 12z, i wonder if its to do with available data or something, ala the GFS 18z seeming to go off on one with cracking outpu, only for it to be gone on the 0z.

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes cloud 10, posted it up there, did not look at the ground temps though, thats what you call a real stonker!!

Edited October 17, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

Problem is we have to wait an extra hour for the GFS 18 to come out now, have no fear though, lots of hurdles still to get over yet, thats one that will definately be solved a week on sunday!

[Ice Day]

Some positive signs today from many quarters, in some ways I wish I hadn't started looking into this Winters prospects so early in the season, I mean it was Mid September when I started to think about Winter, feel like I've been spending way too many hours looking at charts and have spent less time on my own business..oops !

Think next Winter i'll not start to look at things until November....it's just too addictive !!

I don't know why but I also started looking far earlier this year than any previous one; perhaps there really is something special brewing for the winter ahead???? Now I've said it, will probably get a 12 week limpet bartlett starting on 1 December!

[Andy_]

Accuweather forecasting Above average temperatures for northern and eastern Canada this Winter, could be signalling northern blocking

http://www.accuweath...forecast/266862

[SnowObsessor90]

One thing is for sure is that the prospect of another Euro high completely dominating our weather again like last year which I was worried about a bit when this upcoming warmer period first started showing on the outputs is by no means certain, something quite different in fact could well be on the horizon.

That said they could easily flip back over to the former scenario indefinitely over the next few runs so await to see what the future output brings.....

Edited October 17, 2012 by Anonymous21

[Met4Cast]

Do people in Canada get excited over forecasts for above average temperatures?

[Eabie]

Do people in Canada get excited over forecasts for above average temperatures?

If you live in Nunavut you probably do! lol

[fUnKy]

I've been following this for a while now and built up the courage to make an account. I have no clue what all the charts mean and I would love to learn more about forecasting.

I really hope we get a snowy winters this year, I was very disappointed by the mild winter and even when we did get snow, it was light powdery stuff only accumulating to 2-3 cm. Good to see we are heading in the right direction

welcome mate, another newbie here and to be honest I'm almost in awe of all this weather knowledge, thought I was the weather don being able to name a cloud or two.. makes awesome reading.

[Cloud 10]

I don't know why but I also started looking far earlier this year than any previous one; perhaps there really is something special brewing for the winter ahead???? Now I've said it, will probably get a 12 week limpet bartlett starting on 1 December!

Same for me and probably quite a few others,and i dare say the pony&trap summer had something

to do with it!

[Robbie Garrett]

Does anyone remember April 2008?? http://news.bbc.co.u.../uk/7332986.stm

It seems to be forgotten from most people... that this was the start of cold/wintry weather?? during this phase.

Jan/February 2009 spell.

December 2009 Spell

January/February 2010 spell.

November/December 2010 Spell.

February 2012 Spell has followed...............

Be interesting to see if we can have a 2012 and 2013 spell on there, to back up the past few years.

Edited October 17, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[A Winter's Tale]

Does anyone remember April 2008?? http://news.bbc.co.u.../uk/7332986.stm

It seems to be forgotten from most people... that this was the start of cold/wintry weather?? during this phase.

Jan/February 2009 spell.

December 2009 Spell

January/February 2010 spell.

November/December 2010 Spell.

February 2012 Spell has followed...............

Be interesting to see if we can have a 2012 and 2013 spell on there, to back up the past few years.

I've always thought that late October 2008 was the start of the spell of colder/wintry weather, the 2007/2008 season as a whole was mild but I suppose the April wintry spell could have been the start of a trend for synoptics that favoured cold and snow than in previous years.

April 2008

Late October 2008

Late November/December 2008

February 2009

December/January/February 2009/10

November/December 2010

Early January 2011

February 2012

I wonder if we could add to this list of decent cold/wintry periods this winter?

Edited October 17, 2012 by A Winter's Tale

[AutumnMists]

I remember very well the winter of 2007-08 in which we experienced 5cm on February 1st 2008, 10cm on March 25th 2008 and 8cm on 6th April 2008. Was an interesting Winter/Spring although overall it was of course mild and each cold snap was very shortlived, perhaps that's why it is very much forgotten.

[AutumnMists]

Some good output both on Med range and long range models the last few days, however, here is an example of what the winter could be like if it all goes belly up, makes 1989 look good.

http://www.meteociel...0&carte=1&run=0

Went all the way up until nearly end jan, not one decent wavelength pattern.

That's one decent point though, Amid all the hope and possibility of cold this Winter, I wouldn't at all be surprised if it turned out mild.

[feb1991blizzard]

That's one decent point though, Amid all the hope and possibility of cold this Winter, I wouldn't at all be surprised if it turned out mild.

The other point of course, from our point of view, is we could have what happened in 2008 (i was in Salford then and we got Jack), and snowfall wise, it could end up better than an absolute rasper of a scandinavian high, yet if we lived in London, there is no way at all that a a flagship scandi blocking mid 80s winter could give us less snow than 2008 so snowfall wise, it is always regionally variable.

[Mark Neal.]

People keep going on about October 2008 and snowfall down to low lying areas. Here in Oxford we had nothing, well the ground was wet and nothing settled. While up the road in the chilterns they had lying snow for a few days, its interesting at thevariables which tend to show differences in such short distances. It's what makes weather what it is, intriguing.

Edited October 17, 2012 by Mark 'Ox' Neal