Winter 2012/13 Pt 4... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes...

[UV-RAY]

A few tweets from Matt Hugo on Twitter this morning -

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81

The drop in temps to below avg may have longer term repercussions with the potential development of the polar vortex to bring wet/windy wx.

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81

Temperatures within the stratosphere across polar regions have, for the first time, dropped below climate averages - http://ds.data.jma.g...f/pole30_nh.gif (highlighted yesterday)

Sometimes ignorance is bliss Liam. Oh for the good old days when sitting around the TV awaiting the weekly forecast ahead on Farmers weekly.

Edited October 21, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[Coast]

First signs of potential for Scotland in a weeks time?

http://www.snow-fore...tic/uk/168/snow

[Backtrack]

Still sticking with my original thoughts of an above average winter & spring.

The way I see it, nature will balance things out and with so many below average months this year I do not think it will continue into December, January & February. I think we will be left with a split year CET wise. Balanced equally with above and below average months

Edited October 21, 2012 by Backtrack

[Cloud 10]

First signs of potential for Scotland in a weeks time?

http://www.snow-fore...tic/uk/168/snow

Shetlander's a bit sooner than that!

[bobbydog]

i heard on the radio the other day that Surrey county council have ordered in thousands of tons of extra grit. i'm surprised we havent heard from Yamkin yet!!

[chiffer]

Still sticking with my original thoughts of an above average winter & spring.

The way I see it, nature will balance things out and with so many below average months this year I do not think it will continue into December, January & February. I think we will be left with a split year CET wise. Balanced equally with above and below average months

Im sure last year you were a cold ramper, please don't tell me you've turned to the mild side!

[Orpingtoniceagedec10]

I'm a bit confused , but i can't work out why a cold stratosphere is bad for winter cold . I would have thought that cold air mass at whatever altitude would be good for the prospects of cold and snow . Can anyone enlighten me ?

[weather is fun]

Just looking at some of the models and it looks like in a couple of weeks we lose the northern blocking. Then it looks like mild zonality will build in. Think all these tweets joe laminate floori keeps putting out are just generate more traffic to his new website. The strat cooling is bad news for us i think with the lag affect we could be seeing a zonal nov-dec. Need the strat to warm or we could be looking at another winter like last year.

[P-M]

Still sticking with my original thoughts of an above average winter & spring.

The way I see it, nature will balance things out and with so many below average months this year I do not think it will continue into December, January & February. I think we will be left with a split year CET wise. Balanced equally with above and below average months

With respect bt I don't think it works like that. Nature is unpredictable (or predictable to a point in terms of forecasting) and more so in recent times it doesn't have an inbuilt way of balancing out. There is no way of knowing what will happen but one thing is for sure I don't think balance will come in to play.

[bobbydog]

I'm a bit confused , but i can't work out why a cold stratosphere is bad for winter cold . I would have thought that cold air mass at whatever altitude would be good for the prospects of cold and snow . Can anyone enlighten me ?

in simple terms, when its colder, it creates a stronger vortex and a faster, 'straighter' jet stream which locks the cold over the arctic. when warmer, it allows the vortex to break up or be more disorganised as the jet stream is slower and meandering which allows the cold to spread further out in the hemisphere

maybe the term 'warm' is a bit misleading. it means its warmer than usual but still bloody cold!!

Edited October 21, 2012 by bobbydog

[Bumpkin]

Hi folks, Ive been reading through numerous posts...and those wanting to aspire to something they want to do.. and that is anything at all....just go for it and aim high! You never know.

As for winter ...well I have this little niggly thing telling me cold..... that will get some peeps flustered...lol

dare I mention the words...lots of snow?????

Are you doing a forecast this year LOTS? I have been impressed with your winter forecasting the last couple of years.

[chiffer]

I think in going to come back to this thread when the models are actually in range to what will happen rather than what could. I'll be in the ramping thread :-D

[Gavin P]

Hi everyone,

Here's the October seasonal model round-up;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Its a long one, so get a comfy chair and a cup of tea. I think you'll find it very interesting.

If you have any questions about the video, as ever, please ask.

[AWD]

A tweet from Big Joe that's not ramping but rather questioning;

"Crucial to blocking will be the warm AMO, can it hold esp north atlantic part. Early cold may destroy mid winter set up."

Although this one sounds more positive;

"400 mb temps back to where they were in 09/10 so greater support of warming above winter trop in arctic and more blocking. Already starting"

Edited October 21, 2012 by AWD

[Liam J]

Sometimes ignorance is bliss Liam. Oh for the good old days when sitting around the TV awaiting the weekly forecast ahead on Farmers weekly.

Far too much data and info at our fingertips these days thanks to the web - No wonder the prescribing of happy pills has increased a million fold LOL

Edited October 21, 2012 by Liam J

[UV-RAY]

A tweet from Big Joe that's not ramping but rather questioning;

"Crucial to blocking will be the warm AMO, can it hold esp north atlantic part. Early cold may destroy mid winter set up."

Although this one sounds more positive;

"400 mb temps back to where they were in 09/10 so greater support of warming above winter trop in arctic and more blocking. Already starting"

The cynic in me suggest that Joe is covering all bases if his projected ice age doesn't come to fruition.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

On 5th Oct I posted that I was pulling away from early winter and indeed I see Dec being average to above and a reasonable Jan average to just below and Feb below. Looking into the strat thread, early signs in there that we may not see a good start to winter. No panic as Its all very early days. Personally I'd like to see a mixed start to winter with a variable month, it coming out overall average to a tad mild is IMO not an issue IF INDEED THAT IS WHAT HAPPENS?. I want to see continuation of a disrupted, southerly jetstream.

BFTP

Edited October 21, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[The watcher]

Just to make sure nobody thinks the chances of cold/snow are diminished for early winter because someone says it'll be average/slightly mild. Remember that these are over the whole months average, so it is still possible to have a cold spell or two with snow and have an above average or average month CET wise.

Don't take forecasts at this stage though as 100% correct either, we are still over 5 weeks away from winter, anything can happen to change the circumstances.

[UV-RAY]

You may well be right regarding the start to winter if the strat doesn't play ball. Personally I would rather see an early blast ( sorry for the pun ) than a late one, something about last winter IMBY that still irks me.

[AWD]

You may well be right regarding the start to winter if the strat doesn't play ball. Personally I would rather see an early blast ( sorry for the pun ) than a late one, something about last winter IMBY that still irks me.

We are having an early blast, next weekend!

A very early blast! lol. :p

[UV-RAY]

We are having an early blast, next weekend!

A very early blast! lol.

I walked into that one.

[Backtrack]

Im sure last year you were a cold ramper, please don't tell me you've turned to the mild side!

I will never turn to the mild side, I'm just not expecting anything so that anything at all will be a bonus.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Just looking at some of the models and it looks like in a couple of weeks we lose the northern blocking. Then it looks like mild zonality will build in. Think all these tweets joe laminate floori keeps putting out are just generate more traffic to his new website. The strat cooling is bad news for us i think with the lag affect we could be seeing a zonal nov-dec. Need the strat to warm or we could be looking at another winter like last year.

I'm very amused by this to be honest, it's the 21st oct, firstly it was only last wk the strat had a warming and all hopes were up, now after 2-3days of cooling, you are saying it stands to threaten our winter, yes there's been a cooling, but firstly it's something that can completely change in a wks time, there is a lag affect of course, but it's not spelling doom for this winter, last wk everybody was upbeat saying "all the signals are in place for a blocked nov" now after 3days of cooling its all over??

Pls people read the post by cc a few days ago properly, he along with others has specifically said do not jump to any conclusions , and it's very very early days , if the strat is significantly colder with a very strong vortex with a record breaking positive NAO by end of nov early dec as it was last year then comments as above may be warented but not now, the pole and NAO look very different now in comparison to last year at this stage so pls excersise patience before reaching for the Prozacs .

[Isolated Frost]

Hello im new to this form and i am 13 years old. I have always been interested in weather; sorry if i get things wrong as not experienced by any means. Looks like we could be in for a short cold snap .

Just looked at this and I can say I joined here at 13 y/o. There is so much knowledge and depth on this site that I'm sure you'll gain weather know-how quite quickly!

[shedhead]

I'm very amused by this to be honest, it's the 21st oct, firstly it was only last wk the strat had a warming and all hopes were up, now after 2-3days of cooling, you are saying it stands to threaten our winter, yes there's been a cooling, but firstly it's something that can completely change in a wks time, there is a lag affect of course, but it's not spelling doom for this winter, last wk everybody was upbeat saying "all the signals are in place for a blocked nov" now after 3days of cooling its all over??

Pls people read the post by cc a few days ago properly, he along with others has specifically said do not jump to any conclusions , and it's very very early days , if the strat is significantly colder with a very strong vortex with a record breaking positive NAO by end of nov early dec as it was last year then comments as above may be warented but not now, the pole and NAO look very different now in comparison to last year at this stage so pls excersise patience before reaching for the Prozacs .

Wise words, but no matter how wise they will fall on largely deaf ears.... that much is guaranteed! People will always take what's said, then like Chinese whispers put their own particular spin on it, until often just a matter of hours later what's being proported bears little if any resemblence to the original output. Welcome to Autumn/Winter on the Netweather forums...

Edited October 21, 2012 by shedhead