Winter 2012/13 Pt 4... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes...

[Cheshire Freeze]

He hasn't though CC and that's the point, if you've read all of his posts you will see what I mean! I'm all for opinions cold or mild, but when IMO it's just for attention, I'd rather use the ignore function (if NW have one!).

Fairplay, I haven't read the whole thread. I think we need some perspective though, very few posters have said winter is over and it would be stupid to do so at this juncture. I think it's fair to say though it's looking inreasingly likely (by the day) that November and December may be on the mild rather than cold side. We won't know about the outlook for January until early December.

[Radiating Dendrite]

I think the strat is being seen too much as the be all and end all.

Firstly a warming does NOT guarantee cold.

Secondly, we can still have very cold weather even with an active PV. It is the location of the PV that is the most important factor when looking for cold.

The strat is an important factor, but saying a cold strat will lead to a mild December is not necessarily the case at all.

[Bristawl Si]

I don't think the main thrust of Chiono's research is saying you need a SSW to get a cold spell per se, rather, if the strat temp is below average and a strong vortex ensues, it's going to be more difficult to get a sustained cold period. I think if strat temps remain average, cold spells are not precluded.

Exactly Chiono has been v forthright in saying such....but others seem to be latching onto SSWs as the only way to sustained cold.

By the way your call for November and early December to be not v cold or snowy is a pretty safe one in betting terms, as this is pretty well normal for the UK in most Winters, bar Scotland.

[Jayces]

I've heard from the chief weather chap over at weather.com that winter will be mild.

Ask him if he's so certain of the forecast then why isn't it on his website, I mean he is the chief weather chap isn't he?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Fairplay, I haven't read the whole thread. I think we need some perspective though, very few posters have said winter is over and it would be stupid to do so at this juncture. I think it's fair to say though it's looking inreasingly likely (by the day) that November and December may be on the mild rather than cold side. We won't know about the outlook for January until early December.

certainly 2nd half of Nov mild and zonal, but surely too early for Dec yet? who knows could have very cold inversion high setup

[Cheshire Freeze]

Exactly Chiono has been v forthright in saying such....but others seem to be latching onto SSWs as the only way to sustained cold.

By the way your call for November and early December to be not v cold or snowy is a pretty safe one in betting terms, as this is pretty well normal for the UK in most Winters, bar Scotland.

It's got nothing to do with being safe, it's how I see it. If I saw cold I'd call cold......remember I'm a coldie!

[Bristawl Si]

It's got nothing to do with being safe, it's how I see it. If I saw cold I'd call cold......remember I'm a coldie!

Well if you're that confident, this far in advance, you can pick my lottery numbers for this Wednesday!

[Eskimo]

Remember when the Met Office in the August before went for a mild winter in 2010/11? They must have taken in the stratospheric conditions and forecasts but were completely wrong, so if they weren't able to predict the upper atmosphere 3 months in advance then we sure as hell can't.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well if you're that confident, this far in advance, you can pick my lottery numbers for this Wednesday!

My friend, meteorology is a science, picking lottery numbers is pure pot luck!

[SnowObsessor90]

As for the rest of winter, I have no concrete idea at this current time, though I suspect we'll be relying on SSW events for second half of Jan & Feb. Better chance of cold in these months IMO and therefore I'm in agreement with Fred (BFTP) and Roger in regards to winter 2012/13.

In that scenario it's the possibility of a February 2012 repeat in our region that worries me, I know every year is different but still...

[UV-RAY]

A lot of nonsense being posted writing off November and December, in October. I'm not buying all this Strat not playing ball at this time of year anymore, if we see cooling of the Strat throughout November then I'll worry regarding December. Until then I'm enjoying the upcoming cold spell/snap.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Remember when the Met Office in the August before went for a mild winter in 2010/11? They must have taken in the stratospheric conditions and forecasts but were completely wrong, so if they weren't able to predict the upper atmosphere 3 months in advance then we sure as hell can't.

The end of August is far too early to predict how the strat may behave, the end of October isn't. As Chiono has said, the stratospheric state now will most likely affect the troposphere 4 weeks down the line. I think the best thing is to just wait and see, people are becoming far too emotionally invested already and it's still October.

[bobbydog]

Fairplay, I haven't read the whole thread. I think we need some perspective though, very few posters have said winter is over and it would be stupid to do so at this juncture. I think it's fair to say though it's looking inreasingly likely (by the day) that November and December may be on the mild rather than cold side. We won't know about the outlook for January until early December.

just wondered (genuine question) but what do you base this theory on? at the moment its only the colder strat which appears to be the 'fly in the ointment' and we don't yet know if it will stay cold. what other factors are pointing to your thoughts on november and more especially, december?

[Bristawl Si]

My friend, meteorology is a science, picking lottery numbers is pure pot luck!

Agreed.....and it continues to baffle even the most scientific boffins at times right up to the 'last minute'!

[Cheshire Freeze]

just wondered (genuine question) but what do you base this theory on? at the moment its only the colder strat which appears to be the 'fly in the ointment' and we don't yet know if it will stay cold. what other factors are pointing to your thoughts on november and more especially, december?

To be honest with you, even before the news on the strat the other day, I was leaning towards a milder Dec based on the intimations of the ECMWF seasonal (a very good model) and the CFS which has been trending a mobile December for some time now. The long range CFS nailed spring and summer in February and I know this because I used this model in making my spring/ early summer thoughts available at the end of Feb. The latest news on the strat merely serves to confirm my thoughts R.E Dec

If I'm wrong I'll happily eat my words!

Edited October 21, 2012 by CreweCold

[Gavin P]

Just in case anybody didn't see it this morning I hope the mods won't mind if I post a link to my second Seasonal Model Round-Up Video;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

The video looks at all the main seasonal models, such as the UKMO, BCC, JAMSTEC and others.

If you have any questions about the video, please ask.

Enjoy.

[Met4Cast]

certainly 2nd half of Nov mild and zonal, but surely too early for Dec yet? who knows could have very cold inversion high setup

Certainly? Based on what? We don't know what the weather is going to be doing next weekend yet, so I'd love to hear how you can be certain of a mild and zonal second half to November?

[Gavin P]

Re. The stratosphere, I can't claim to be an expert in the stratospheric impacts on our weather, but to me the current temp in the strat doesn't look overly cold?

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

Edited October 21, 2012 by Gavin P

[bobbydog]

i have the answer!-

anyone got a spare nuke?

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

A nuclear winter.

Fun

If we were alive

[Bishop Brennan]

Re. The stratosphere, I can't claim to be an expert in the stratospheric impacts on our weather, but to me the current temp in the strat doesn't look overly cold?

http://ds.data.jma.g...e/pole30_n.html

I was about to make the same point, beat me to it! Also, this time last week the strat was modestly warmer than average (as illustrated).

I wonder how far below average the strat temp would have to drop before it becomes a factor - anyone?

Bish

Edited October 21, 2012 by Bishop Brennan

[bobbydog]

A nuclear winter.

Fun

If we were alive

just one at the north pole- SSW? lol

[CanadaAl]

Just in case anybody didn't see it this morning I hope the mods won't mind if I post a link to my second Seasonal Model Round-Up Video;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

The video looks at all the main seasonal models, such as the UKMO, BCC, JAMSTEC and others.

If you have any questions about the video, please ask.

Enjoy.

Thanks alot for the update Gavin, Always nice to sit down with a cup of tea on a Sunday evening and catch your updates

[feb1991blizzard]

Re. The stratosphere, I can't claim to be an expert in the stratospheric impacts on our weather, but to me the current temp in the strat doesn't look overly cold?

http://ds.data.jma.g...e/pole30_n.html

Agreed, but lets hope that little curve right at the end is the start of it going up again, any lower and we are in trouble.

Edited October 21, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Don]

Re. The stratosphere, I can't claim to be an expert in the stratospheric impacts on our weather, but to me the current temp in the strat doesn't look overly cold?

http://ds.data.jma.g...e/pole30_n.html

Thanks for that Gavin. When I clicked on the video link, the first thing I saw was that hideous looking CFS V2 chart in the background! Thank God most of the other models look somewhat better!