Winter 2012/13 Pt 4... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes...

[CanadaAl]

Re. The stratosphere, I can't claim to be an expert in the stratospheric impacts on our weather, but to me the current temp in the strat doesn't look overly cold?

http://ds.data.jma.g...e/pole30_n.html

Yeah, that's what i was thinking. Seems bonkers for some to discount the beginning of winter just yet as there is still 3/4 weeks for us to see the strat warming/ returning closer to normal

[Don]

To be honest with you, even before the news on the strat the other day, I was leaning towards a milder Dec based on the intimations of the ECMWF seasonal (a very good model) and the CFS which has been trending a mobile December for some time now. The long range CFS nailed spring and summer in February and I know this because I used this model in making my spring/ early summer thoughts available at the end of Feb. The latest news on the strat merely serves to confirm my thoughts R.E Dec

If I'm wrong I'll happily eat my words!

Whilst I think there are some signs at the moment that winter could well start off on the mild side, I think it's too early to be confident about this. I think we need to see how the stratosphere shapes up as we move into November. I agree that it currently doesn't look great but that could still change. I also agree that the CFS charts cannot be ignored either. I feel that November could well be on the cold side though (first half at least). If winter does start mild then hopefully we'll get a better shot of cold later on unlike last year when February didn't quite make the grade although we came fairly close to getting something noteworthy. As it stands, I think things are looking more favourable this year than they were last.

Edited October 21, 2012 by Don

[feb1991blizzard]

OH YES, look whats going to happen next, GFS on board.

Edited October 21, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

BANK

[Eskimo]

BANK

If only they were useful lol.

[Nights King]

BANK

One can dream... looks abit marginal though for south

[ZONE 51]

CFS - 3rd Dec, Surface pressure then Thickness 500-1000hpa:

The charts show a easterly developing

Edited October 21, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[feb1991blizzard]

One can dream... looks abit marginal though for south

Marginal for the whole of England and some of Scotland TBH!.

If only they were useful lol.

IF ONLY!

[Paul_1978]

A lot of people over on Model Output Discussion are bashing one off about the forthcoming cold spell.

Don't get me wrong I'm looking forward to it but is is FAR TO EARLY to be concerned with any significant or deep seated cold and snow.

I would like a lengthy cold spell in Dec/Jan/Feb, the proper winter months. It's currently only October!

My advice would be to enjoy the cold spell but I can't help thinking its not going to be particularly significant, but just a little cold.

I just hope all this northern blocking and southerly tracking jet stream etc is taking place in the winter as we know it in the UK, not mid Autumn.

[The watcher]

I would just like to say to Crewecold, well done for sticking your neck out and making a forecast . People may disagree/hate on you for calling an above average start, but what will they say if you are right?

I think people need to remember that nobody is wrong in their forecast until we see the actual outcome.

A little bit of respect isn't too much to ask, I'm sure he will admit he was wrong if it goes the other way, but least he had the guts to say what he thinks we will see for this winter, even if it wasn't what he would like himself.

Let us all enjoy our upcoming tasters first.

[ZONE 51]

Is Strat Warming the only route to cold though?

I'd be interested if any of the experts on here can say if the classic cold and snowy Winters of 78/79, 81/82, Jan 87 and even as far back as 62/63 and 1947 were down to Strat Warming.

Surely we can still get below average temps with no significant strat warming -

the cold weather forecast this coming weekend is NOT because of strat warming.

Not dismissing SW outright but it's just one part of any cold jigsaw for out part of the world. Not the be all and end all.

http://www.guardian....mate-experiment

Wonder how this experiment is getting on, it's gone on the quite i think, well i've not heard anymore about this. What it is about is scientists trying to cool the stratosphere....

Edited October 21, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Must take a look and see what the Strat signals were indicating 2-3weeks ago.(takes a few weeks to affect our weather)

What was the stratosphere like at this time Oct 2010?

Edited October 21, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[NorthernRab]

-1'C with light snow showers currently being reported at Altnharra!

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

http://www.guardian....mate-experiment

Wonder how this experiment is getting on, it's gone on the quite i think, well i've not heard anymore about this. What it is about is scientists trying to cool the stratosphere....

Isn't this type of thing a bit risky and foolhardy - how can they know what impact this will have if we don't fully understand how everything works and interconnects (weatherwise that is)? Don't get me wrong, I am all for science and trying to learn how such things work and what impact they have etc. It just might be a bit more sensible to try and recreate similar conditions in a labortary. Also, didn't the Chinese do something to keep the rain and smog at bay during the 2008 Olympics. I am sure I read somewhere that they were putting someting into the atmosphere but cannot recall what!

[Backtrack]

Don't really see why people are complaining about a cold stratosphere, although there is a link between a colder stratosphere and less prolonged cold spells, the event known as a SSW is called an SSW for a reason. SUDDEN stratospheric warming. Although there is a lag effect to deal with, we have 12 weeks of winter, and a further 8 weeks (November & March) where snow is more than possible.

So people reading too much into the stratosphere at this point are likely to be wrong, as it's behavior can be hard to predict, and we can and will still get cold spells regardless or not whether the stratosphere is cold.

[TEITS]

Is Strat Warming the only route to cold though?

I'd be interested if any of the experts on here can say if the classic cold and snowy Winters of 78/79, 81/82, Jan 87 and even as far back as 62/63 and 1947 were down to Strat Warming.

Surely we can still get below average temps with no significant strat warming -

the cold weather forecast this coming weekend is NOT because of strat warming.

Not dismissing SW outright but it's just one part of any cold jigsaw for out part of the world. Not the be all and end all.

Yes we can get below average temps with no significant warming because thats exactly what happened in Dec 2009. Like I said a few days ago I revisited the 2009 strat thread and no SSW occured prior to that cold spell. If anything during Dec posts were suggesting the opposite and yet Jan 2010 was record breakingly cold. On the flip side I have read posts predicting that N blocking will occur due to a SSW and yet all that occured was a strong PV. This was clearly seen this Feb because I recall many were baffled why the model output was so disappointing.

I have no doubts a below average strat results in a strong PV resulting in possible mild, unsettled conditions across the UK. However other variables can cause blocking to develop bringing a cold spell to the UK. The .question is though what is the tipping point that causes the temps in the stratosphere to override the other variables??

As someone else mentioned the SSTS in the Atlantic hardly get a mention these days and yet these can be a factor in whether we see a +NAO or - NAO. When making a forecast all these variables need to be taken into account and it isn't as straightforward as warm strat = cold UK or vice versa.

So in summary I do believe the strat is a major player but my scepticism is with regards to our understanding of the strat and all the other variables.

[chionomaniac]

The amount of misinformation, incorrect speculation and chinese whispers on the state of the stratosphere on here I find staggering.

And TEITS you are an expert in peddling this.

[latitude]

The amount of misinformation, incorrect speculation and chinese whispers on the state of the stratosphere on here I find staggering.

And TEITS you are an expert in peddling this.

Maybe I am misunderstanding you. But the TEITS has pointed out an inportant fact, that two of the most coldest winters in recent times happend with no significant strat warming.

[johnholmes]

Agreed chio, and I do wish those with not much understanding would be less quick to post things that cast doubt on the work being done in this field.

I have often posted that NOTHING can be taken in meteorology in isolation to other items. Everything is linked. What this work is trying to do, as far as I can see, is add another piece to the jigsaw. Chio is certainly not making out it is the answer to any ability to predict a season ahead. sadly others who are not even willing to read the introduction to this thread, this is not directed at you TEITS as I have no idea whether you have read it or not, then take any post from chio and distort it to their own wishes and hopes.

Please everyone make sure you understand as much as possible before making 2+2 to be anything but 4.

I am nowhere near as clued up as you are chio. However am I correct in suggesting that a warming of the Stratosphere, as shown below in 2009, is sufficient to create suitable conditions for blocking?

To me this gave a pretty good indication, later supported by the 500mb anomaly charts for the cold spell in December so in spite of what you say TEITS my view is that the Stratosphere and 500mb charts did give an indication prior to the cold taking hold. chio may contradict my very amateur view on this?

if someone can take my chart and enlarge it I would be very grateful as its hard to see-thanks?

Maybe I am misunderstanding you. But the TEITS has pointed out an inportant fact, that two of the most coldest winters in recent times happend with no significant strat warming.

wrong-see post above

adding to above

I actually made a pigs ear of the 30mb charts and was about 7-10 days out in the start of the cold which started here about 16/17 December.

Edited October 22, 2012 by johnholmes

[latitude]

Agreed chio, and I do wish those with not much understanding would be less quick to post things that cast doubt on the work being done in this field.

I have often posted that NOTHING can be taken in meteorology in isolation to other items. Everything is linked. What this work is trying to do, as far as I can see, is add another piece to the jigsaw. Chio is certainly not making out it is the answer to any ability to predict a season ahead. sadly others who are not even willing to read the introduction to this thread, this is not directed at you TEITS as I have no idea whether you have read it or not, then take any post from chio and distort it to their own wishes and hopes.

Please everyone make sure you understand as much as possible before making 2+2 to be anything but 4.

I am nowhere near as clued up as you are chio. However am I correct in suggesting that a warming of the Stratosphere, as shown below in 2009, is sufficient to create suitable conditions for blocking?

To me this gave a pretty good indication, later supported by the 500mb anomaly charts for the cold spell in December so in spite of what you say TEITS my view is that the Stratosphere and 500mb charts did give an indication prior to the cold taking hold. chio may contradict my very amateur view on this?

if someone can take my chart and enlarge it I would be very grateful as its hard to see-thanks?

wrong-see post above

Have we seen a warming strat recently? Has this led to the blocking patterns being shown and the colder weather forecast for next weekend?

[johnholmes]

too early as chio has posted several times, and as I posted you cannot take one thing in isolation

[Liam J]

Some nice frosty and in some areas snowy scenes in Finland this morning, I expect it'll be looking much more wintry over the coming days

http://www2.liikennevirasto.fi/alk/english/kelikamerat/kelikamerat_5.html

[tcc]

My basic understanding of the Strat is such that as far as I can tell, you don't NEED a SSW to create a blocking scenario. What does help create blocking is if the Strat is warmer than the average.

As John points out above, the strat warmed considerably, however it was not a SSW (as far as I'm aware) yet it helped with the cold spell in late Dec/Jan. Obviously there are other ingredients as the Strat is not the only teleconnector, but it IS becoming apparent that is one of the most important in terms of forecasting what the climate could be in a few weeks time.

[chionomaniac]

Have we seen a warming strat recently? Has this led to the blocking patterns being shown and the colder weather forecast for next weekend?

The patterns seen now have more to do with tropospheric conditions because the stratosphere doesn't become a major player until later in the season when the autumnal upper cooling starts to have an effect on the troposphere below.. The stratosphere is cooling down from a massive warming. It is called summer and is seen every year!!!!!!!

[Vertical Limit]

Hi all, I have been lurking in the shadows since last winter and finally decided to join in with the fun. Reading through the posts the past week, there seems to be elation one minute and wrist slashing the next, fuelled no doubt by the recent model outputs and the discussions on the Strat thread and so on. Personally I am hoping for a cold and snowy winter and a repeat of 2009 and 2010 would be most welcome but anything can happen as many suggest although it seems to me we're in a much better position (at present) than we were this time last for the possibility a colder winter. Very interesting times ahead and plenty to play for!