Winter 2012/13 Pt 4... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes...

[MattH]

This might get some people talking....

http://www.equities.com/news/news-headline-story?dt=2012-10-22&val=617757&d=1&cat=headline

As ever not much information with regards to why they suggest this, but still a reputable company/organisation none-the-less and they have as much chance of being right than someone going with the colder option. It's certainly a prediction which goes against all or most of the signs up to present day anyway...

M.

[Frostbite80]

This might get some people talking....

http://www.equities....=1&cat=headline

As ever not much information with regards to why they suggest this, but still a reputable company/organisation none-the-less and they have as much chance of being right than someone going with the colder option. It's certainly a prediction which goes against all or most of the signs up to present day anyway...

M.

I definately won't discount any forecast until spring but to me this forecast looks like it has been based soley around the CFS model as there are at least 4 other LR models showing a blocked winter. Any thought's? Oh hi by the way

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This might get some people talking....

http://www.equities....=1&cat=headline

As ever not much information with regards to why they suggest this, but still a reputable company/organisation none-the-less and they have as much chance of being right than someone going with the colder option. It's certainly a prediction which goes against all or most of the signs up to present day anyway...

M.

They are adjusting their temps downward for November.....they didn't see this coming...so bin their LRF. IT MAY TURN OUT RIGHT but for me it'll be for the wrong reasons. So they couldn't see whats coming near time and yet they are confident of 2/3 months down the line......hmmm

BFTP

Edited October 22, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

see my post about 'warming' indicating the prospect of blocking occurring

Hi John

revisiting the archive charts its Dec 08 I'm thinking of, cold conditions despite no real northern blocking.

BFTP

Edited October 22, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Cheshire Freeze]

They are adjusting their temps downward for November.....they didn't see this coming...so bin their LRF. IT MAY TURN OUT RIGHT but for me it'll be for the wrong reasons. So they couldn't see whats coming near time and yet they are confident of 2/3 months down the line......hmmm

BFTP

Hi Fred,

must say my early optimism for this winter is receding somewhat. Seems we're in broad agreement R.e mobile early part of winter with greatest chance of cold later Jan & Feb?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi John

revisiting the archive charts its Dec 08 I'm thinking of then?, cold conditions despite no real northern blocking.

BFTP

[Barry12]

Hi Fred,

must say my early optimism for this winter is receding somewhat. Seems we're in broad agreement R.e mobile early part of winter with greatest chance of cold later Jan & Feb?

Nobody can discount the start of winter this far out. No one.

[Summer Sun]

This might get some people talking....

http://www.equities....=1&cat=headline

As ever not much information with regards to why they suggest this, but still a reputable company/organisation none-the-less and they have as much chance of being right than someone going with the colder option. It's certainly a prediction which goes against all or most of the signs up to present day anyway...

M.

Another piece to add to the winter Jigsaw puzzle

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi Fred,

must say my early optimism for this winter is receding somewhat. Seems we're in broad agreement R.e mobile early part of winter with greatest chance of cold later Jan & Feb?

I don't foresee an early prolonged freeze at this stage but see an up and down pattern, should be something for eveyone in Nov and Dec. I'm watching certain factors though before committing as the cold won't be too far away if the jet maintains its behaviour.BFTP

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Can I remind everyone getting despondent about the prospects for the start of winter to take a look at the comments being left on the same day 2 years ago. We were just one month away from one of the coldest ends to November in many a year. Noone was picking up on the cold. In fact, I can't see reference to what was about to hit until well into November..

This is a link to this forum on Oct 22 2010.

On this day in 2010, the MET office said the following:

UK Outlook for Saturday 6 Nov 2010 to Saturday 20 Nov 2010:

After an unsettled start, much of the UK will see near or slightly below average rainfall. Most places will see a mix of showers and longer spells of rain, usual for November, but also a good deal of sunshine in between. Temperatures are expected to be mild for the time of year much of the time.

Also when was this weekends cold snap picked up? About 2 weeks ago, initially by the GFS model..

It is fascinating how advanced some of this long range stuff is but it's all guess work beyond about 2-3 weeks.

So don't give up yet. I think we'll have a cold part of winter with snow. I have faith because of the weird weather we have had this year, what with a dry winter, then downpours all summer. We seem to go long stretches with the same weather. Right now we have blocking again, and that seems to be the pattern now for the last few winters. Why will this be any different?

Edited October 22, 2012 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[UV-RAY]

They are adjusting their temps downward for November.....they didn't see this coming...so bin their LRF. IT MAY TURN OUT RIGHT but for me it'll be for the wrong reasons. So they couldn't see whats coming near time and yet they are confident of 2/3 months down the line......hmmm

BFTP

There forecast last Winter, Spring and Summer were also wrong, so there track record is far from impressive.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Can I remind everyone getting despondent about the prospects for the start of winter to take a look at the comments being left on the same day 2 years ago. We were just one month away from one of the coldest ends to November in many a year. Noone was picking up on the cold. In fact, I can't see reference to what was about to hit until well into November..

Yes RJS and I were.....we foresaw a cold Dec and Early Jan as per page 2 or 3. That isn't being seen at the moment. But it won't be dull.

BFTP

Edited October 22, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[johnholmes]

Can I remind everyone getting despondent about the prospects for the start of winter to take a look at the comments being left on the same day 2 years ago. We were just one month away from one of the coldest ends to November in many a year. Noone was picking up on the cold. In fact, I can't see reference to what was about to hit until well into November..

This is a link to this forum on Oct 22 2010.

On this day in 2010, the MET office said the following:

UK Outlook for Saturday 6 Nov 2010 to Saturday 20 Nov 2010:

After an unsettled start, much of the UK will see near or slightly below average rainfall. Most places will see a mix of showers and longer spells of rain, usual for November, but also a good deal of sunshine in between. Temperatures are expected to be mild for the time of year much of the time.

Also when was this weekends cold snap picked up? About 2 weeks ago, initially by the GFS model..

It is fascinating how advanced some of this long range stuff is but it's all guess work beyond about 2-3 weeks.

So don't give up yet. I think we'll have a cold part of winter with snow. I have faith because of the weird weather we have had this year, what with a dry winter, then downpours all summer. We seem to go long stretches with the same weather. Right now we have blocking again, and that seems to be the pattern now for the last few winters. Why will this be any different?

thanks for that link-very informative about us all, worth reading folks

[Methuselah]

They are adjusting their temps downward for November.....they didn't see this coming...so bin their LRF. IT MAY TURN OUT RIGHT but for me it'll be for the wrong reasons. So they couldn't see whats coming near time and yet they are confident of 2/3 months down the line......hmmm

BFTP

Aye Fred, maybe. But if it does 'turn out right', it's a step in the right direction...It's arguably better than being wrong for the 'right' reasons? Whatever they are...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Aye Fred, maybe. But if it does 'turn out right', it's a step in the right direction...It's arguably better than being wrong for the 'right' reasons? Whatever they are...

No Pete, IMO if someone says cold due to blocking to our NW and a -ve NAO signal but we don't get cold as it is too west based......that would be a fair call. Nailing Britain and Ireland is very fine line.

Nice to se RJS on line...

BFTP

Edited October 22, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Roger J Smith]

Since my research is strongly driven by timing, I have the perspective of trying to forecast what part of a winter may be coldest as well as the intensity -- in that case I come up with February as the most likely winter month to go below normal. December looks about a tossup or near normal, and January could be mild at least on balance. But if I were to look more in terms of probability of different circulation types developing given the current synoptics, I would have to say that the pattern looks primed for blocking to develop through the season, with a Greenland to Alaska trans-polar block appearing quite plausible. This has got to favour the appearance of colder weather in Europe at some point also.

Overall, would rate the chances of this winter being more severe than last at 65% and more severe than 2009-10 about 50-50. That leaves out 2010-11 which was very severe for the first half and very bland past early January. This winter could turn out to be a sort of mirror image of that, two different regimes with a retrograde blocking episode as the main driver of the variations.

My CET over/under predictions would be Nov 7.0, Dec 5.0, Jan 5.5 and Feb 2.0 ... so a good chance for a severe February in that outlook.

[Tim Bland]

Excellent post Rojer. This is how long range forecasts should be. Not specific but educated opinions on current indicators

[Methuselah]

No Pete, IMO if someone says cold due to blocking to our NW and a -ve NAO signal but we don't get cold as it is too west based......that would be a fair call. Nailing Britain and Ireland is very fine line.

BFTP

Isn't that simply using post hoc excuses, Fred? I really got it right, but the weather got it wrong?

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

I am looking forward to this weekend with the temps dropping witch should leave a wintry atmosphere.

[Don]

This might get some people talking....

http://www.equities....=1&cat=headline

As ever not much information with regards to why they suggest this, but still a reputable company/organisation none-the-less and they have as much chance of being right than someone going with the colder option. It's certainly a prediction which goes against all or most of the signs up to present day anyway...

M.

Oh dear, a stinker of a forecast for winter! IF that was to end up close to the mark, we would be looking at a potential re-run of 1988/89 or 1989/90. The prozac supplies would certainly run dry! Does anyone know what sort of track record they have?

EDIT - Just seen Seven of Nine's response. Not a great track record it seems. However, that doesn't mean to say that the forecast should be ignored IMO.

Edited October 22, 2012 by Don

[Bristawl Si]

Oh dear, a stinker of a forecast for winter! IF that was to end up close to the mark, we would be looking at a potential re-run of 1988/89 or 1989/90. The prozac supplies would certainly run dry! Does anyone know what sort of track record they have?

Not v good apparently.

How many LRFs end up correct anyway?!

Dunno why everyone's getting so hooked up on end Oct/November anyway - winter down south doesnt usually get going (cold and snow) til after xmas in most years (if at all)

Edited October 22, 2012 by Bristle boy

[weather is fun]

Well reading matt hugo's update over on the strat page sounds like we could see a mild zonal nov-dec with the cold coming jan/feb time now i think this is the most likely outcome at the minute. Looks very much like the strat will not play ball for the 1st half of winter. But jan/feb could be very intresting indeed.

[Barry12]

Hi Fred,

must say my early optimism for this winter is receding somewhat. Seems we're in broad agreement R.e mobile early part of winter with greatest chance of cold later Jan & Feb?

Crewecold, you seem to think you can dismiss the start of winter in October? not you nor nobody knows what will happen. The weather god will do what she wants.

[Cloud 10]

Forum winter forecast issued...

[Barry12]

Well reading matt hugo's update over on the strat page sounds like we could see a mild zonal nov-dec with the cold coming jan/feb time now i think this is the most likely outcome at the minute. Looks very much like the strat will not play ball for the 1st half of winter. But jan/feb could be very intresting indeed.

Doylem..I mean 'weather is fun' don't troll.