Winter 2012/13 Pt 4... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes...

[Karl83]

I'm still going with Joe's ideas. If its mild then he's a plank, if its cold then he's a clever bloke.

EDIT: And some of the comments on here about winter will be zonal etc etc, really? Hats off to you if you're correct but you really can't say this far out IMO.

Edited October 22, 2012 by Thunder_Bolt

[Liam J]

Hi all, I have been lurking in the shadows since last winter and finally decided to join in with the fun. Reading through the posts the past week, there seems to be elation one minute and wrist slashing the next, fuelled no doubt by the recent model outputs and the discussions on the Strat thread and so on. Personally I am hoping for a cold and snowy winter and a repeat of 2009 and 2010 would be most welcome but anything can happen as many suggest although it seems to me we're in a much better position (at present) than we were this time last for the possibility a colder winter. Very interesting times ahead and plenty to play for!

Welcome & well done you for coming out of the shadows!

Edited October 22, 2012 by Liam J

[lorenzo]

So in summary I do believe the strat is a major player but my scepticism is with regards to our understanding of the strat and all the other variables.

I think this video sums up the spectacular impact a SSW can have, certainly leaves me in no doubt, if you have time please have a read through the teleconnection papers, link in signature, there is enough in there to quash any cynicism.

Also why this is a fascinating subject is that some of the material is truly at the cutting edge of science and our understanding of the atmosphere.

I appreciate your opinion though and I would guess that some of the thoughts are developed via discussion of stratospheric impacts being more at the forefront in the media, and yes there seem to be trends, fads, nuances in weather thoughts, SSts you quite rightly highlight, for me the Arctic SSts are indeed the wildcard this winter having looked at the patterns available.

Anyhow, here's to some fine video footage..

[bluearmy]

Reading through the posts the past week, there seems to be elation one minute and wrist slashing the next, fuelled no doubt by the recent model outputs and the discussions on the Strat thread and so on.

Thats normal winter fayre on this forum. glass is generally empty or overflowing.

[johnholmes]

nice video there L

I have finally found the pdf I did on 28 Nov 2009 with a prediction for what I thought the weather would do into mid December,actual period was 7-17 December, it also shows the 30mb temperature at the time. A fairly good indication to me that northern blocking was going to occur.

No 40 issued 30 nov for 7-17 dec.pdf

hopefully it will show that the cold spell did show up on the 30mb temperature chart

[Methuselah]

I'm still going with Joe's ideas. If its mild then he's a plank, if its cold then he's a clever bloke.

EDIT: And some of the comments on here about winter will be zonal etc etc, really? Hats off to you if you're correct but you really can't say this far out IMO.

So, going by his epic (US) fail last year, he's a plank then?

Hi all, I have been lurking in the shadows since last winter and finally decided to join in with the fun. Reading through the posts the past week, there seems to be elation one minute and wrist slashing the next, fuelled no doubt by the recent model outputs and the discussions on the Strat thread and so on. Personally I am hoping for a cold and snowy winter and a repeat of 2009 and 2010 would be most welcome but anything can happen as many suggest although it seems to me we're in a much better position (at present) than we were this time last for the possibility a colder winter. Very interesting times ahead and plenty to play for!

Welcome Vertical Limit!

[Lettucing Gutted]

Yes we can get below average temps with no significant warming because thats exactly what happened in Dec 2009. Like I said a few days ago I revisited the 2009 strat thread and no SSW occurred prior to that cold spell. If anything during Dec posts were suggesting the opposite and yet Jan 2010 was record breakingly cold. On the flip side I have read posts predicting that N blocking will occur due to a SSW and yet all that occurred was a strong PV. This was clearly seen this Feb because I recall many were baffled why the model output was so disappointing.

This situation also occurred in February 2009. In late January 2009 the Arctic Stratosphere experienced a record breaking increase in temperature in terms of both rate and magnitude and yet similar to February 2012 we had a very cold first half followed by one of the warmest second halves of February on record. Edited October 22, 2012 by Craig Evans

[Aaron]

Snow for Aberdeen forecast for Friday night

[johnholmes]

This situation also occurred in February 2009. In late January 2009 the Arctic Stratosphere experienced a record breaking increase in temperature in terms of both rate and magnitude and yet similar to February 2012 we had a very cold first half followed by one of warmest second halves of February on record.

Yet again no ONE factor governs the weather, ALL are inter related and have to be taken into account. The clever bit is having spent time analysing all these parameters is choosing those that are most likely to affect the outcome. Much as in routine synoptic meteorology and using all the models; admittedly a somewhat different area of meteorology but the same discipline has to be applied.

[gottolovethisweather]

I think this video sums up the spectacular impact a SSW can have, certainly leaves me in no doubt, if you have time please have a read through the teleconnection papers, link in signature, there is enough in there to quash any cynicism.

Also why this is a fascinating subject is that some of the material is truly at the cutting edge of science and our understanding of the atmosphere.

I appreciate your opinion though and I would guess that some of the thoughts are developed via discussion of stratospheric impacts being more at the forefront in the media, and yes there seem to be trends, fads, nuances in weather thoughts, SSts you quite rightly highlight, for me the Arctic SSts are indeed the wildcard this winter having looked at the patterns available.

Anyhow, here's to some fine video footage..

Just so I can get the image of this warming in my mind, what part of the globe are we looking at and when does the SSW start to appear on at the attached video. Sorry for pestering you Lorenzo, but like others, I am still learning and am most keen to listen to other's views.

Edited October 22, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[lorenzo]

You are looking at the 50 Hpa temperature profile for the North Hemisphere. Approx 20,100 meters / 66,000 ft.

November 2008 - February 2009 using date from ECMWF. Date is in US format so be careful reading that. Around January 9th sees the Vortex at it's peak over the North Pole. 36 seconds.

At 38s you can see a warming in mid-atlantic / Greenland position this subsides SE over Europe but combined with the warming over the Aleutians pushes the vortex past tipping point.

At 43s onwards you can see the outcome as the cold temperatures over the pole are swamped with pinks and reds, here are the temperature charts for the associated time period.

2009

JFM

Best advice I can give is read this introductory post from Chiono.

[gottolovethisweather]

Just so I can get the image of this warming in my mind, what part of the globe are we looking at and when does the SSW start to appear on at the attached video. Sorry for pestering you Lorenzo, but like others, I am still learning and am most keen to listen to other's views.

Well I hope I've sussed it but please anyone correct me if I'm reading things wrong.

There appears to be a first burst of SSW energy over siberia around about the 5th Novemebr which is approximately 10 seconds into the video. A more important event comes about at around 18 seconds (late November into early December) and lasts a few days.

According to my eyes, the delay in feedback is about 15 days or so before it reached our shores. So from that, as seemingly confirmed by my weather station, a chilly final third of November and middle part of December ensued.

Again, please will anyone confirm if my interpretation is way off.

Back to winter chat from me, from now on.

Edit: it seems I was slightly off as suggested by Lorenzo's post above. I did see things go beserk later on but I didn't think anything came of that, with regard to the UK. Still lots to learn but I'm in the right place.

Edited October 22, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[chiffer]

Met offices long range updates are encouraging. That is all

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I certainly see the involvement of the stratos for HLB and assisting/enhancing the chances of a cold outbreak. However, it is still only part [albeit its importance is increasing as we know more] of the chain. Dec 2009 did catch many people out, particularly the severity of the cold and blocking during the 3rd week onwards. I too cannot remember any 'forecast' or report of SSW. Was there a CW?

For me that winter was mainly about the southerly jetstream, which also on that basis when in its current state will bring bouts of very cold and very mild.....which I think could be seen this Nov.

On that note IF latter Nov and Dec/start of winter isn't cold .....don't worry ....likewise if it is let's not 'expect' a 62/3.

BFTP

[snowy weather]

Looking at the the weather outlook charts they have been consistentry showing snow everywhere for a while now. I understand they might not mean anything but if they came of I would be very impressed.

[johnholmes]

I certainly see the involvement of the stratos for HLB and assisting/enhancing the chances of a cold outbreak. However, it is still only part [albeit its importance is increasing as we know more] of the chain. Dec 2009 did catch many people out, particularly the severity of the cold and blocking during the 3rd week onwards. I too cannot remember any 'forecast' or report of SSW. Was there a CW?

For me that winter was mainly about the southerly jetstream, which also on that basis when in its current state will bring bouts of very cold and very mild.....which I think could be seen this Nov.

On that note IF latter Nov and Dec/start of winter isn't cold .....don't worry ....likewise if it is let's not 'expect' a 62/3.

BFTP

see my post about 'warming' indicating the prospect of blocking occurring

[cheeky_monkey]

its been snowing on and off since sat...all be it lightly..high yesterday -4c same kind of thing today..then we have a large system moving in later today which could dump 20-25cms of snow in around the city by Wednesday..staying below freezing all week.

[CanadaAl]

its been snowing on and off since sat...all be it lightly..high yesterday -4c same kind of thing today..then we have a large system moving in later today which could dump 20-25cms of snow in around the city by Wednesday..staying below freezing all week.

With the snow and cold arriving this early on in the season, would this suggest a possible negative AO? I remember my aunt telling me Calgary had around the same weather pattern emerging in october 2010

[chiffer]

I thought it was a negative AO?!

[cheeky_monkey]

With the snow and cold arriving this early on in the season, would this suggest a possible negative AO? I remember my aunt telling me Calgary had around the same weather pattern emerging in october 2010

its not unusual for it snow at this time of the year..the third week in October usually sees the first snow although we did have snow 2 week ago..this summer and autumn have been different to 2010..what happens between mid November and the beginning of Dec will determine what kind of winter we will have here.

[Mark Neal.]

its not unusual for it snow at this time of the year..the third week in October usually sees the first snow although we did have snow 2 week ago..this summer and autumn have been different to 2010..what happens between mid November and the beginning of Dec will determine what kind of winter we will have here.

With this potential for snow in mind, is there any decent webcams in which i can view to get my snow fix ?

[shedhead]

With this potential for snow in mind, is there any decent webcams in which i can view to get my snow fix ?

Here's a nice, clear one of The Lech in Scotland Mark....you should see some snow on this cam by the weekend. http://www.webcam-sk...s&r=panoramique

Ditto Nevis Range... http://www.webcam-sk...noramique

name='shedhead' timestamp='1350912256' post='2387559']

Edited October 22, 2012 by shedhead

[Mark Neal.]

Here's a nice, clear one of The Lech in Scotland Mark....you should see some snow on this cam by the weekend. http://www.webcam-sk...s&r=panoramique

Ditto Nevis Range... http://www.webcam-sk...noramique

Thanks for sharing, second best thing to being there is watching on. Will await pictures and also videos of snow from the mountain ranges this weekend and higher ground in the north

[Summer Sun]

A lovely day in North West Scotland today compared to the bulk of the UK expect to see this turing white by the weekend

[cheeky_monkey]

With this potential for snow in mind, is there any decent webcams in which i can view to get my snow fix ?

http://www.calgary.c...ic-Cameras.aspx

try that?

Memorial drive is near to my office

Edited October 22, 2012 by cheeky_monkey