Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes

[cheeky_monkey]

What a shock to the system this chilly snap is, tbh im not sure if i want a cold winter now, i am a fan of snow, not cold, but obviously you need the cold in place for it to snow, i couldn't get out of bed this morning as it was so cold and the northerly wind was blasting at my window,

you want to live where i am went out for a walk tis -9c with a windchill of -16c had over a week of sub zero daytime temps and on an off snow and its not even november yet...might have to move to palm springs or phoenix at this rate.

Edited October 27, 2012 by cheeky_monkey

[I remember Atlantic 252]

seems like I will never see a legendary fall again, not seen 15cm's+ for 16 years, do get good amounts 7-10cm's but never knee deep falls

[Aaron]

Haven't seen knee-deep snow for ages here, bet we'll see one in the near future though, it's been what, 17, 18 years? We just need either frequent showers or stalling snow bands.

Edited October 27, 2012 by Aaron

[divadee]

Never have (in my lifetime) and probably never will see knee deep here in bournemouth. In my dreams I have seen it lot but I doubt unless we get a 62/63 style winter it will ever happen.

[Gord]

Never say never. I bet every location in the UK can report a serious fall of snow at some point in it's history. With weather, if it's possible once, it's possible again. The gap between events may a few months, a few years or a few decades. But you can never say never. Particularly when you live on an island like this with a warm ocean one side and cool seas and a gigantic landmass on the other.

It'll only take once long lived potent streamer from the Irish Sea at the perfect angle! Or one slightly further north channel low...or a stalling trough from the north...or another streamer from the Lincolnshire coast...or more than one of those! Or something else!

Edited October 27, 2012 by Gord

[Aaron]

Leeds had 40cm in Jan 1995 and that is the last time I saw more than a foot of snow.

It's definitely possible and was probably not that rare prior to the new millennium. The past few winters we've gotten good snow amounts though ranging from 15cm to 32cm (depending on where you live), so I cannot complain.

Edited October 27, 2012 by Aaron

[Crockel]

Never have (in my lifetime) and probably never will see knee deep here in bournemouth. In my dreams I have seen it lot but I doubt unless we get a 62/63 style winter it will ever happen.

I live just along the coast from you in Fareham. (I know it's not polite to ask a lady her age!) but there are two occasions in the last 30 years where the snow got close to knee height. The first was in the very late 1970's when drifting snow went to the height of hedgerows and in either february 1986 or 87 when a number of separate snowfalls along with sustained low temperatures got the level snow depths to around 12 inches deep.

Never lose the faith!

L

Edited October 27, 2012 by Crockel

[Frosty_wsm]

repeat of 81 would do me nicely, had over a foot of level snow here at sea level right on the west coast and we couldn't even open the backdoor due to the snow drifts, those were the days, I've never seen that much snow here since then.

[latitude]

These sort of snowfall totals you are talking about are very localised. This is what anoys me about the UK. Our island is so small and the differences in weather is just crazy. You can have a foot of snow in your location and just a dusting 5 miles away.

What anoys me so much especially on this website, is how people get so excited that their 50 mile squared area is predicted snowfall and the rest of the country isnt. The people in that area get all excited.....when they only have to travel half an hour down the road to find green fields and no snow. This seems a pointless to me.

One day the UK will get a winter when everyone is happy. Even during the recent cold winters many were disappointed with what the actually saw fall from the sky....if anything white.

[Isolated Frost]

42cm on December 3 2010 was nice, I guess...

[divadee]

I live just along the coast from you in Fareham. (I know it's not polite to ask a lady her age!) but there are two occasions in the last 30 years where the snow got to at least knee height. The first was in the very late 1970's when drifting snow went to the height of hedgerows and in either february 1986 or 87 when a number of separate snowfalls along with sustained low temperatures got the level snow depths to around 12 inches deep.

Never lose the faith!

L

I'm 35! Lol. I have lived here for 15 years so missed the snow in the 80s. Before that central London born and bred so very little snow. I think I'm a snow repellant. I need to buy a winter home in northern Scotland lol.

Here's hoping just one winter of knee deep snow.

I do think fareham get a lot more snow than here though. Gosport did very well in dec 10 a lot more than here.

Edited October 27, 2012 by divadee

[I remember Atlantic 252]

42cm on December 3 2010 was nice, I guess...

Gosh, is that all you got last winter? even on feb 4th-5th? surprised at that

seen it in your sig

Edited October 27, 2012 by ihatetherain

[Gord]

These sort of snowfall totals you are talking about are very localised. This is what anoys me about the UK. Our island is so small and the differences in weather is just crazy. You can have a foot of snow in your location and just a dusting 5 miles away.

Believe me it's not just here. When I lived in central Ohio, one of the townships 10 miles away could have half a foot to a foot of snow while in Columbus, we had just a couple of inches. Nothing to do with elevation or built up areas. Factors such as the angle of attack from lake effect (which can get as far south as Columbus) or very small pesky little warm sectors which always seemed to find their way through central Ohio. Sometimes, a low pressure off the east coast of the US could just be that little further away that 10-20 miles made the difference. I had many frustrating near misses when I was there. There was a time when a huge snowstorm seemed to be heading our way...severe warnings were out. The forecast on the local news the night before couldn't help but talk about the impending doom of this snowstorm. I checked the radar before I left for work and the leading edge of the storm was just appraching the city. Went to work expecting to see a blizzard outside at some point...and nothing happened all day! Turns out the low causing the storm unexpectedly but slightly shifted east at the final moment pulling the system away from Columbus. A swathe of Ohio just south of the city got the snow that was forecast while we were left high and dry. That was worse than any let down I've experienced in this country.

So it's not just us...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Believe me it's not just here. When I lived in central Ohio, one of the townships 10 miles away could have half a foot to a foot of snow while in Columbus, we had just a couple of inches. Nothing to do with elevation or built up areas. Factors such as the angle of attack from lake effect (which can get as far south as Columbus) or very small pesky little warm sectors which always seemed to find their way through central Ohio. Sometimes, a low pressure off the east coast of the US could just be that little further away that 10-20 miles made the difference. I had many frustrating near misses when I was there. There was a time when a huge snowstorm seemed to be heading our way...severe warnings were out. The forecast on the local news the night before couldn't help but talk about the impending doom of this snowstorm. I checked the radar before I left for work and the leading edge of the storm was just appraching the city. Went to work expecting to see a blizzard outside at some point...and nothing happened all day! Turns out the low causing the storm unexpectedly but slightly shifted east at the final moment pulling the system away from Columbus. A swathe of Ohio just south of the city got the snow that was forecast while we were left high and dry. That was worse than any let down I've experienced in this country.

So it's not just us...

Kinda reminds me of 9th Feb this year? I left on the thursday morn, expecting a snowy late afternoon into night, then the damn thing shifted east! even on the friday morning was just the lightest of flurries

[Alan Medlock Valley]

Being the age I am (57) I have obviously seen my fare share of snow over the years, it is true that snow depths years ago were deeper, snow was more heavier in the 60's (obviously 62-63 stands out) and also in the 70's and 80's but then we had a huge lull here like most of the UK after 1995/1996 up until 2008/2009. Of course it snowed every Winter after 1995/96 but the depths were never more than about 4-5 inches here. Mild Atlantic systems reigned supreme back then.

Obviously I haven't lived in this house all my life but the worst snows I have seen at this location was probably a few and they were about equal amounts.

There were a couple of events in the mid-late 1970's when me and the missus first moved in here can't remember the exact dates where we had about 50cm on each of them with drifts to well over 2 feet on the field. Never seen it as bad since.

Then we had about 40cm on a few occasions in the early and mid 80's - again with drifting then as we got into the 90's things changed hugely for the most part.

I won't say since 2008 there has been a definite pattern change again but I may change my mind in the near future. But who knows this Winter may be like last years or even milder. Nothing can be ruled out either way.

[Gord]

Kinda reminds me of 9th Feb this year? I left on the thursday morn, expecting a snowy late afternoon into night, then the damn thing shifted east! even on the friday morning was just the lightest of flurries

Yes, remember that well. There was quite a worry about freezing rain as well wasn't there? That was a big let down. Everything looked like it was going well throughout the morning. Even the sky got that look about it through the afternoon. Patchy light rain with temps above freezing and a light dusting overnight was the result. Although I was glad to miss the freezing rain.

I'm sure there'll be more twists and turns like this in the coming winter. Might be in our favour. Might not. Who knows!

Edited October 27, 2012 by Gord

[sunny scunny]

The most snow ive ever seen in my own backyard is 45cm, which is mentioned in my sig. Last winter there was 13cm in early feb which looked like a dusting after that

[I remember Atlantic 252]

the models in FI remind me a bit, of the 7th-9th Nov 2001, anyone get decent snow off that toppler style setup? still too early for here, all I saw was sleet showers

[keithlucky]

Sad to see the bloody pest the Azores is rearing it"s ugly head next lets week pray that it peeeeeeeeeees off.Winter could be derailed for a while.

Edited October 27, 2012 by keithlucky

[Rocheydub]

Sad to see the bloody pest the Azores is rearing it"s ugly head next lets week pray that it peeeeeeeeeees off.Winter could be derailed for a while.

It's still Autumn for a few weeks yet

[NorthernRab]

Sad to see the bloody pest the Azores is rearing it"s ugly head next lets week pray that it peeeeeeeeeees off.Winter could be derailed for a while.

It'll probably be gone by the 18hz run, I wouldn't worry balach!

[Skyraker]

What we need here in Staffs mate is a battleground jobby.

We get dustings from easterlies that make it over to us but what gave us those truly epic falls in the 70's 80's is deep deep cold , entrenched over the country and an atlantic wide boy trying his luck to push in... either you get rain... snow, quickly turning to rain... or EPIC EPIC totals... they are rare but you do remember them.

Soon....

C

[Tom Montalbano]

Just wanted to pop this post in here, from one I made on the S.E. thread. A few times during discussions recently, regarding the coming winter, 1968/69 has been mentioned as a possible analogue season and some of you may be wondering what kind of winter we experienced then.

The post was written with the South-East in mind but February, in particular, produced snowfall for many areas.

Just a few stats before the post.

Winter CETs were as follows. DEC: 3.0c JAN: 5.5 FEB: 1.0c. Just out of interest.MAR: 3.3c.

Some teleconnection stats from that winter.

NAO: DEC: -1.40 JAN: -0.83 FEB: -1.55 (MAR: -1.56). AO: DEC: -0.783 JAN: -2.967 FEB: -3.114 (MAR: -1.582).

A moderate El Nino phase was recorded for the 3 winter months DJF of +1.1.

Posted 25 October 2012 - 20:49

Vertical Limit, on 25 October 2012 - 14:53 , said:

Hello everyone. I have just been over on the Strat thread and Chio has posted a trial prediction today for a Canadian warming event to happen mid/back end of November. Interestlngly the analogue years are 1962 and 68. If the predication came to fruition then which year would we want a repeat of for the South East? I am pretty certain 62 delivered an epic winter for us (if you like severe cold and snow that is) but I am not sure if 68 was as good for the South East?

Hi VL, obviously would have to be 62/63 but Feb. 69 was none too shabby either. It was a very cold month with a CET of 1.0c.

Winds were frequently from the north or east. Just a few charts showing the type of synoptics from that month.

http://www.wetterzen...00119690208.gif

Strong and unstable flow from the north giving snow showers or longer periods of snow (notice how many troughs were coming down from the north in that flow). Some reports suggest a polar low tracked down through parts of the E.Midlands/S.E.England, depositing a foot of snow in places and even more in Kent, with 20 foot drifts.

http://www.wetterzen...00119690212.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00119690213.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00119690214.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00119690215.gif

A complex area of low pressure moved SE from near Iceland and tracked across the country and settled to our SE, dragging very cold air from the NE across the UK. This brought more heavy snow to our region.

http://www.wetterzen...00119690219.gif

More heavy drifting snow in our area as easterly gales developed.

http://www.wetterzen...00119690228.gif

An easterly at the months end bringing more snow showers to our area.

The cold weather lasted throughout most of March too, giving a CET of 3.3c.

Just adding to the above. Some areas from NE Wales down to Bucks experienced a surprise white Xmas as heavy rain on Xmas Eve turned to wet snow, giving a covering by the morning.

http://www.wetterzen...00119681225.gif

There was also snow in many areas between Xmas and the New Year, as a northerly developed, with the flow turning more NNE as the week went on. With low pressure just off S.E England, some very cold air encroached from the continent.

http://www.wetterzen...00119681227.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00119681229.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00119681230.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00219681230.gif

Although January recorded a negative NAO figure it was western based for much of the month, as the charts below illustrate and temps were mostly on the mild side.

http://www.wetterzen...00119690111.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00119690112.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00119690123.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00119690125.gif

It wasnt until February that the pattern flipped and we then started to see a more eastern based NAO. High pressure over mid-Atlantic to Greenland and eventually over N.W. Russia and an upper level trough just to our east and eventually low pressure over Europe. With the flow often from the north or east, that CET of 1.0c was recorded.

Thanks to Trevor Harleys excellent site for some of the stats in this post.

Sorry if the post was a bit muddled in parts, just about to get ready for work!

Regards,

Tom.

Edited October 28, 2012 by TomSE20

[Barry12]

I just don't believe in analogue years, no winter will ever be the same as another.

[Gavin P]

Hi all,

Here's my fourth winter 2012/2013 round-up video;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Looks at things like SST's anomalies, ice and snow cover, solar activity, etc... To see how things are developing as we move towards winter.

I should just say that these videos are building up a picture and at the end of November I'll combine the "round-up" videos with the seasonal model videos to produce an "official" forcast for winter 2012/2013.

So all of these videos are eventually leading to a final conclussion.

As ever, thanks for your support and if you've got any questions about the video please ask.