Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes

[Aaron]

It's quite typical really - many people on here don't seem to be especially interested in the weather, unless there's the prospect of snow.

And? People can prefer whatever type of weather they want.

[January Snowstorm]

Well I think the gfs has performed exceptionally well of late spotting the colder outbreak first and then spotting where this would lead on to. It would be good to get a little update from GP as to where we stand now and when his Winter forecast is due out.

[Don]

I agree with you there. This time last year temperatures were well up in the mid teens, hardly late October temperatures if you ask me. Has anyone else noticed how much further along the autumn leaves are this year? A lot of the trees around here are nearly bare, this time last year a lot were still green.

Yes, this time last year we were being influenced by a big euro high with no sign of an end to the above average temperatures. No suprise that autumn leaves are much further along this year. Mid September to mid October was the coldest since 1974 (hope we don't have the same type of winter that followed!) I wonder if this Autumn will be the coldest since 1993, must be in with a reasonable chance?

[Ice Day]

It is me or does there seem to be a general lack of interest in the Winter prospects right now ?

There was a lot of activity last week when the CFS was promising a new ice age, but many have since hidden behind their sofa's once the Strat cooling debate kicked off! Thankfully it's all calmed down a bit......but all we need is a pub run 'Beast from the East' being promised at T minus 384 hours then a full on meltdown of Netweather will ensue (followed by sales of Prozac reaching an all time high!). I love winter on here!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Dont want a beast from the east yet, its too early, GFS seems to look quite zonal, thank christ its only 25th 0ct

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

Looks like the cold snap is starting! 1C tomorrow at 7:00am here.

chilly

[Nights King]

Looks like the cold snap is starting! 1C tomorrow at 7:00am here.

chilly

Just don't blink or u'll miss it...

It is early but I think we can start looking for real cold once we hit second week of november in my opinion if you want it to really last on ground etc. Also another couple of weeks and eastern europe should have alot more cold air to tap into with an ever improving snowcover this autumn.

[shotski]

Looks like the cold snap is starting! 1C tomorrow at 7:00am here.

chilly

I think they are the 850 temp charts, you can add about 7 degrees to those temps.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I think they are the 850 temp charts, you can add about 7 degrees to those temps.

Yeah, they are upper air temps, around -2C for me, needs to be -10 for snow here, -5 probably enough further north

[Rocheydub]

I think they are the 850 temp charts, you can add about 7 degrees to those temps.

You are correct, it is the 850s.

*Edit* beaten to it.

Only it doesn't really need to be -10 for snow either in fairness....

Edited October 25, 2012 by Rocheydub

[Nights King]

You are correct, it is the 850s.

*Edit* beaten to it.

Only it doesn't really need to be -10 for snow either in fairness....

Ive seen snow with 850's of -1c before when you have cold air sourced of the continent, rare but possible although id say -5/6 is the benchmark with -4 maybe for high ground.

Edited October 25, 2012 by mullender83

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Ive seen snow with 850's of -1c before when you have cold air sourced of the continent, rare but possible although id say -5/6 is the benchmark with -4 maybe for high ground.

10th Jan 2010, rain -12 uppers

[Nights King]

10th Jan 2010, rain -12 uppers

Yes your right the opposite can also occur. Although you know lady luck is against you if that happens!

Its similar to being 4000m up in a ski resort and getting rain in january...

Edited October 25, 2012 by mullender83

[Harve]

Yeah, they are upper air temps, around -2C for me, needs to be -10 for snow here, -5 probably enough further north

And how exactly would latitude effect the upper air temperatures needed for snow?

[Nights King]

And how exactly would latitude effect the upper air temperatures needed for snow?

Latitude doesn't exactly I'd say more the direction it comes from, proximity to the coast and altitude. The more warm water it has to cross the more it gets modified and mixed especially early in the season but if you get a dry cold continental source in january/february you can get snow with lower upper air temperatures of -4/5 much easier. So maybe north on average needs less because sea is generaly colder?

[Harve]

Latitude doesn't exactly I'd say more the direction it comes from, proximity to the coast and altitude. The more warm water it has to cross the more it gets modified and mixed especially early in the season but if you get a dry cold continental source in january/february you can get snow with lower upper air temperatures of -4/5 much easier. So maybe north on average needs less because sea is generaly colder?

Yes I agree with what you're saying, but I think he's seriously overestimating how difficult it is to get snow in late October / November. He's far enough inland so that he could get snow showers on upper air temperatures of -6, maybe. Certainly not -10. The main difficulty is getting the showers in the first place, as the Midlands are quite sheltered from northerlies. Easterlies can deliver, but simply wouldn't have upper air temperatures of -6 or so until later in November.

[ZONE 51]

What is showing on the GFS tonight for the 5th November something like this was shown by CFS a couple of weeks ago but it changed.

Edited October 26, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Agreed, It definitely has got quieter on here of late! No staying power lol. Out of interest, if the CFS just shows FI all the time that rarely comes to fruition is there really much point in actually using it? Or do cold loving folk just like the torture lol :-)

Yes there is, it is a forecast model after all and needs to be used, i can understand the lack of confidence in using it by some but it really does give an idea of what types of patterns we could see over the months a head, for example it could indicate Arctic blasts. Edited October 26, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

CFS - COLD CHART OF THE DAY:

15/11/12

[Cheshire Freeze]

For the past week the CFS has been churning out run after run of zonal crap right throughout winter. HP to the south or at best over the UK is being shown a lot in recent runs. I sure to God hope it's not picked up the winter trend!

Edited October 26, 2012 by CreweCold

[ZONE 51]

Quite a bit of Zonal stuff! BUT there is also indications of cold spells to....

[weather is fun]

Well after this short lived cold snap looks like were going to be wet and stormy for the forseable future. Must admit i will echo crewe colds thoughts yes the cfs has been churning out run after run of mild zonal mush. Hope this isnt picking up the trend for winter. Although it is throwing in some colder outlooks aswell so all not lost i suppose. But worrying signs when it keeps the consitencey with the mild outputs. Guess its going to be a long winter of model watching lol. And i think we should get a lorry load of anti depressents ordered just in case in does go horribley wrong.

[gottolovethisweather]

For the past week the CFS has been churning out run after run of zonal crap right throughout winter. HP to the south or at best over the UK is being shown a lot in recent runs. I sure to God hope it's not picked up the winter trend!

It probably has picked up the trend for November, but has mistakenly extended all through winter. It is looking far removed from mild zonal though in the more immediate term, that is for sure. As ever, there are other signals which these model outputs are unable to pick up, so let's all think positive thoughts.

Edited October 26, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Ben Sainsbury]

ecmwf

gfs

Still a long way off tho...

[Summer Sun]

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