Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes

[cheeky_monkey]

BFTP.What ,what came later?

January 1987

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

BFTP.What ,what came later?

Here she comes....my favourite chart as its ALL ABOUT the anticipation....and it was nailed on to be coming to us too

BFTP

[AWD]

This is the sort of PV we want to try and avoid setting up through November as it would likely need strong stratospheric warming to disrupt.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0&carte=1

Fortunetly there hasn't been too many charts showing this yet, lets just hope a trend doesn't emerge as above. Not total disaster if it does happen as its still early days, but it would make life a lot easier as we enter winter if the PV didn't become quite as strong and organised as that!

[SP1986]

Epectations in general not much..

I hope though this winter delivers everything, from very mild days and nights, to cool-cold spells, snow, rain, hail, thunder.. high winds, fog.. you name it, if it's varied it'll be wonderful.

If it's a one track records, ie cold or mild for months at a time, it'll be a poor season.

Something interesting basically!

[feb1991blizzard]

Here she comes....my favourite chart as its ALL ABOUT the anticipation....and it was nailed on to be coming to us too

BFTP

Yes, you can just see it coming cant you, the green colour representing slightly higher heights running all the way up to Svalbaard and the energy from the atlantic just about to sig south (slight kink in the isobars just off cornwall), there is always that chance that the unthinkable could happen.

[ZONE 51]

What i am going to do is post a CFS chart each day but only one and that will be the cold chart of the day.

Looking through over the weeks the model keeps developing Arctic blasts and even some easterlys.

The chart of the day posted will be the thickness 500/1000hpa.

CFS Chart of the day:

14/11/2012

[Weathizard]

Oh how I love the CFS, rarely fails to deliver greatness, just a shame it rarely verifies! I like the latest CFS as well, I do love winter weather though, this is probably my favourite time of year, so much hope and expectation around for cold and snow to be delivered.

Aside from the dream world of the CFS, my dreamworld head tells me I think we could have a good one this year, based on no scientific data at all just had that feeling all year, I think this year could finally be the year we see...... the BEAST from the EAST

One thing I can be sure of is that I can't wait for the ride of all the model runs coming out and such!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yes, you can just see it coming cant you, the green colour representing slightly higher heights running all the way up to Svalbaard and the energy from the atlantic just about to sig south (slight kink in the isobars just off cornwall), there is always that chance that the unthinkable could happen.

Pre 2007 it was unthinkable and at best highly unlikely.....now though it's very much a possibilty

BFTP

[Aaron]

Epectations in general not much..

I hope though this winter delivers everything, from very mild days and nights, to cool-cold spells, snow, rain, hail, thunder.. high winds, fog.. you name it, if it's varied it'll be wonderful.

If it's a one track records, ie cold or mild for months at a time, it'll be a poor season.

Something interesting basically!

I don't want anything even remotely mild - that is not interesting to me.

[Bristawl Si]

Oh how I love the CFS, rarely fails to deliver greatness, just a shame it rarely verifies! I like the latest CFS as well, I do love winter weather though, this is probably my favourite time of year, so much hope and expectation around for cold and snow to be delivered.

Aside from the dream world of the CFS, my dreamworld head tells me I think we could have a good one this year, based on no scientific data at all just had that feeling all year, I think this year could finally be the year we see...... the BEAST from the EAST

One thing I can be sure of is that I can't wait for the ride of all the model runs coming out and such!

It was earlier this week that the CFS was showing mild and wet for winter - enter much wrist slashing on here - now it's flipped the other way to some extent.

Not convinced it's a model that should be taken too seriously to be honest. Maybe i'm being unfair but.....

[sunny scunny]

I'm hoping to make a snowman, like the size of the one below lol

[Weathizard]

It was earlier this week that the CFS was showing mild and wet for winter - enter much wrist slashing on here - now it's flipped the other way to some extent.

Not convinced it's a model that should be taken too seriously to be honest. Maybe i'm being unfair but.....

No I absolutely agree with you, hence as I said it rarely verifies and is quite often a dream world, still nobody can deny these charts even though they are unlikely to happen, are nice to see!

[Chris K]

It was earlier this week that the CFS was showing mild and wet for winter - enter much wrist slashing on here - now it's flipped the other way to some extent.

Not convinced it's a model that should be taken too seriously to be honest. Maybe i'm being unfair but.....

To be honest, thats more down to people interpreting them as if they are highly likely to verify as shown on each run.Its a useful tool for spotting general trends in my opinion, but people must realise (most do anyway) its very highly unlikely that the actual outcome will match any single run this far out.

Naturally, the models even have slight changes on the day but those tiny changes can result in a totally different outcome down the line.

I think this winter will be interesting following the models. Purely on gut feeling, I reckon it will be one of those topsy-turvy winters with nothing really being prolonged for long periods of time. Perhaps one of those winters with something for everyone?

Of course as its based purely on how I feel, I will most likely be wrong, so please dont ask me to back those thoughts up haha! Still looking forward to this winter though. Most weather is more interesting than benign slate grey skies day after day.

Edited October 25, 2012 by Chris K

[johnholmes]

No I absolutely agree with you, hence as I said it rarely verifies and is quite often a dream world, still nobody can deny these charts even though they are unlikely to happen, are nice to see!

I spent over 2 months with both the raw basic daily output and the ensemble variety leading into Christmas last year, you can find my views in that link wherever it is. In mid December it actually had a run of about 7 days or so that did reasonably accurately predict what happened in January. Prior to that my comment was no more use than a chocolate fireguard. I have yet to be convinced that any CFS version gives any guide to upcoming patterns and by that I mean over the past 2 years I have seen very little to support it in any trends it has shown but some folk say they give decent guidance. I would like to see someone doing a 12 month check on its output so we can all see in retrospect how it did perform. Our memories are great at playing tricks on us!

[SnowObsessor90]

Just looking back at some of the older winter topics from 09/10, ahh good times, good times. Hopefully last year was just a blip with the more 'even larger teapot' type patterns not becoming the general trend once again otherwise I'm quite sure how I'd cope, perhaps in that sort of desperate scenario I'd start travelling to places like Lapland on an annual basis to get my snow fix lol

[Gord]

Just looking back at some of the older winter topics from 09/10, ahh good times, good times. Hopefully last year was just a blip with the more 'even larger teapot' type patterns not becoming the general trend once again otherwise I'm quite sure how I'd cope, perhaps in that sort of desperate scenario I'd start travelling to places like Lapland on an annual basis to get my snow fix lol

Sadly we've all got good experience of going through poor winters. I'm sure we'd cope. I've been looking at youtube videos of various snow events around the UK over the past few years....soon got bored and started looking at footage of the Chicago blizzard in February 2011 instead.

[SnowObsessor90]

Sadly we've all got good experience of going through poor winters. I'm sure we'd cope. I've been looking at youtube videos of various snow events around the UK over the past few years....soon got bored and started looking at footage of the Chicago blizzard in February 2011 instead.

I'm sure I would eventually, the initial realisation would hurt big time though.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

An interesting read for anyone whos interested in the upcoming cold snap

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

[EML Network]

It is me or does there seem to be a general lack of interest in the Winter prospects right now ?

I expect once FI shows a - 15 Dam Line going as far South as Africa and that snow chart looks like a cheesecake folks will soon come back.

Overall pattern for the immediate future looks OK to me, on the cool side for the time of year, hopefully a trend that will continue until March 2013...although I doubt it will

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Agreed, It definitely has got quieter on here of late! No staying power lol. Out of interest, if the CFS just shows FI all the time that rarely comes to fruition is there really much point in actually using it? Or do cold loving folk just like the torture lol :-)

[Methuselah]

Agreed, It definitely has got quieter on here of late! No staying power lol. Out of interest, if the CFS just shows FI all the time that rarely comes to fruition is there really much point in actually using it? Or do cold loving folk just like the torture lol :-)

I think that it's purely experimental...

[Buzz]

It is me or does there seem to be a general lack of interest in the Winter prospects right now ?

I expect once FI shows a - 15 Dam Line going as far South as Africa and that snow chart looks like a cheesecake folks will soon come back.

It's quite typical really - many people on here don't seem to be especially interested in the weather, unless there's the prospect of snow.

Edited October 25, 2012 by Buzz

[SnowObsessor90]

It's quite typical really - many people on here don't seem to be especially interested in the weather, unless there's the prospect of snow.

This is probably continuing to dwell of topic here but I for one am happy with the 'Autumnal' synoptics currently on offer for the next week or so, they're certainly more interesting than what was in store for us this time last year that is for sure.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

This is probably continuing to dwell of topic here but I for one am happy with the 'Autumnal' synoptics currently on offer for the next week or so, they're certainly more interesting than what was in store for us this time last year that is for sure.

I agree with you there. This time last year temperatures were well up in the mid teens, hardly late October temperatures if you ask me. Has anyone else noticed how much further along the autumn leaves are this year? A lot of the trees around here are nearly bare, this time last year a lot were still green.

Edited October 25, 2012 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[Bristawl Si]

It is me or does there seem to be a general lack of interest in the Winter prospects right now ?

It's only October 25th - a long way to go yet!