Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes

[Eskimo]

Got some sleet at about 6:30am yesterday morning, no flakes though which was annoying, driving to work at 8:30 it was all rain despite being nearly 250m in elevation

[cheeky_monkey]

winter cometh

[Eskimo]

winter cometh

-9C max? Crikey!!

[Aaron]

Look at Atlantic Canada though.. very mild still, though they don't cool down properly until December onwards.

Got some sleet at about 6:30am yesterday morning, no flakes though which was annoying, driving to work at 8:30 it was all rain despite being nearly 250m in elevation

If there were no flakes, how was it sleet?!

[Eskimo]

Look at Atlantic Canada though.. very mild still, though they don't cool down properly until December onwards.

If there were no flakes, how was it sleet?!

Should have made myself clearer, apologies. It was that sort of fine pellety stuff, I guess you would call them snow pellets? However I always thought that was more of an American term.

[Barry12]

Using my data available to me, I am highly confident of an Omega block settling up end of Nov. Watch this space.

[phil nw.]

Using my data available to me, I am highly confident of an Omega block settling up end of Nov. Watch this space.

Can you link that data here Barry?

[SnowObsessor90]

Tomorrow's ECM 32 dayer update will be interesting to say the least. Will it stand by it's idea thus reinforcing the MetO's current 16-30 day outlook or will it switch to a more zonal outlook or even something in between thus leaving us non the wiser?

In any case I guess only time will tell, for the winter that is.

Edited November 5, 2012 by Anonymous21

[Eskimo]

Can anyone remember it being so hard to tell what will happen in the future? I have been a member for over a year but have been on this thread for nearly 4 years, but I have never seen a year like it in terms of how hard it has been to forecast.

[Skyraker]

Using the waybackmachine I managed to find 2010/11 forecast from around 18th November.

Linkage = http://web.archive.o...type=pr&id=1774

Also I think some of you are being a bit hard on Brian, I believe (correct me if i'm wrong) he didn't dismiss Stat events, just didn't use them as a parameter in his forecast. His "ludicrous" comment I think was regarding only looking at the strat and little else...

*edit* He's revised it a bit to remove the statement, so I can't go re-read it.

I tried to find his previous winter forecasts but they don't appear to be on his site.

Also I am not impressed with his strat thoughts. He sees the linkage but then refuses to factor it in - instead deeming it ludicrous. Well I am sure the met office don't agree having spent a fortune including the strat measurements into their latest computer modelling!

Edited November 5, 2012 by Skyraker

[snowstorm445]

Why is there such huge negativity about a bit of normal zonal weather in the middle part of November? Frankly we've hardly seen any of it up until this point, and it usually delivers some interesting windstorms.

I have no doubt that many on here believe that the because last winter turned out to be a zonal AZ High dominated winter, the mere sight of it on the charts brings to mind horrible memories of dull, disgustingly mild winter nights with no end in sight. There are huge differences between this and last year in terms of zonal weather:

1. Obviously November sees fairly zonal weather anyway, so anything like this that shows up as such on the charts is hardly unheard of in November.

2. The NAO looks set to bd fairly negative at the moment, so the likelihood of sustained westerly winds are weak.

3. The PV looks set to be weak and fragmented at best, completely different to last year.

4. There are signs from both the CFS and the Japanese model that Heights will build to the north and west in the final third of the month, which is encouraging.

I would encourage people not to dread a zonal pattern if it shows up. It's not the end of the world, and it's not as if a cold winter will not feature zonal patterns, especially this early on. This year's Autumn has been very unusual, so I think winter could be interesting as well, especially if all the background signals are anything to go by.

[Skyraker]

Can you link that data here Barry?

He won't, but if he does i'll show my backside in Topshops window.

[SnowObsessor90]

Why is there such huge negativity about a bit of normal zonal weather in the middle part of November? Frankly we've hardly seen any of it up until this point, and it usually delivers some interesting windstorms.

I have no doubt that many on here believe that the because last winter turned out to be a zonal AZ High dominated winter, the mere sight of it on the charts brings to mind horrible memories of dull, disgustingly mild winter nights with no end in sight. There are huge differences between this and last year in terms of zonal weather:

1. Obviously November sees fairly zonal weather anyway, so anything like this that shows up as such on the charts is hardly unheard of in November.

2. The NAO looks set to bd fairly negative at the moment, so the likelihood of sustained westerly winds are weak.

3. The PV looks set to be weak and fragmented at best, completely different to last year.

4. There are signs from both the CFS and the Japanese model that Heights will build to the north and west in the final third of the month, which is encouraging.

I would encourage people not to dread a zonal pattern if it shows up. It's not the end of the world, and it's not as if a cold winter will not feature zonal patterns, especially this early on. This year's Autumn has been very unusual, so I think winter could be interesting as well, especially if all the background signals are anything to go by.

True, Matt Hugo's last update didn't sound all that encouraging though which unnerves me a little..

Edited November 5, 2012 by Anonymous21

[Bristawl Si]

Why is there such huge negativity about a bit of normal zonal weather in the middle part of November? Frankly we've hardly seen any of it up until this point, and it usually delivers some interesting windstorms.

I have no doubt that many on here believe that the because last winter turned out to be a zonal AZ High dominated winter, the mere sight of it on the charts brings to mind horrible memories of dull, disgustingly mild winter nights with no end in sight. There are huge differences between this and last year in terms of zonal weather:

1. Obviously November sees fairly zonal weather anyway, so anything like this that shows up as such on the charts is hardly unheard of in November.

2. The NAO looks set to bd fairly negative at the moment, so the likelihood of sustained westerly winds are weak.

3. The PV looks set to be weak and fragmented at best, completely different to last year.

4. There are signs from both the CFS and the Japanese model that Heights will build to the north and west in the final third of the month, which is encouraging.

I would encourage people not to dread a zonal pattern if it shows up. It's not the end of the world, and it's not as if a cold winter will not feature zonal patterns, especially this early on. This year's Autumn has been very unusual, so I think winter could be interesting as well, especially if all the background signals are anything to go by.

I agree.

I think we'll get a typical winter this yr. Cold zonal will dominate with some snowy/ cold spells but also milder spells.

It's nothing more than a hunch - no charts to back it up.

Everyone seems focusaed on strat warming but the crazy thing is only a few are just beginning to fully understand its influence on our weather.

There will be cold/ snow events without a SSW - i mean look at yday morning in the south west!

I guess that no SSW means no deep and long lasting cold. But there will be cold/ snowy spells even without strat warming but they'll not last long.

[Eskimo]

True, Matt Hugo's last update didn't sound all that encouraging though which unnerves me a little..

He's a knowledgable guy admittedly but it doesn't mean we won't see anything exciting, things crop up so fast including a SSW.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Using my data available to me, I am highly confident of an Omega block settling up end of Nov. Watch this space.

sorry to ask but im a newbie learnin whats an omega block ?

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

This winter is looking abit to normal with tot much snow.

But things are yet to change.

[Eskimo]

This winter is looking abit to normal with tot much snow.

But things are yet to change.

Why do you think that?

[Great Plum]

sorry to ask but im a newbie learnin whats an omega block ?

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Block_(meteorology)

[I remember Atlantic 252]

This winter is looking abit to normal with tot much snow.

But things are yet to change.

November is, and probably a zonal writeoff, but suely Dec (to me) main winter month will be decent, surely zonal, mild Nov should equal better Dec and Jan

bit early to say not much snow for winter, especially in your location, who knows another 20 Dec 2009

[johnholmes]

sorry to ask but im a newbie learnin whats an omega block ?

In the 'omega' block case the strongest flow is diverted to lower latitudes, leaving a slow-moving anticyclonic vortex on the poleward flank of the displaced zonal flow.

a site worth book marking is weatherfaqs, I'll find the actual link, prepared by ex senior forecast in UK Met and has a wealth of reliable definitions and explanations

link

http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/

Edited November 5, 2012 by johnholmes

[Barry12]

sorry to ask but im a newbie learnin whats an omega block ?

This explains it best

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/news/newsid_9221000/9221616.stm

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

In the 'omega' block case the strongest flow is diverted to lower latitudes, leaving a slow-moving anticyclonic vortex on the poleward flank of the displaced zonal flow.

a site worth book marking is weatherfaqs, I'll find the actual link, prepared by ex senior forecast in UK Met and has a wealth of reliable definitions and explanations

link

http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/

thanks john im learning little by little :-)

This explains it best

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/news/newsid_9221000/9221616.stm

cheers :-)

[Barry12]

Can you link that data here Barry?

No

The jetsream has been acting very unusual though

[snowstorm445]

This winter is looking abit to normal with tot much snow.

But things are yet to change.

Please elaborate. How can you conclude it "looks" normal when it hasn't even begun? We have difficulty knowing what'll happen in the next fortnight, never mind the winter.

Although I presume you are reading some of the more pessimistic posts on here. These are only for the next few weeks, not the whole winter.