Upcoming Cold (Chilly?) Snap

[Chris D]

I think once this cold "snap" sets in, temps for the majority of the time afterwards appear to be below average; just looking at the general picture from the models. In addition to the encouraging Met Office 30 day forecast, I think its not as gloomy as people are making out (regarding longer-term cold weather). I think the favoured spot, as always in these sorts of scenarios, for any snowfall (esp for the upcoming one), will be Scotland.

It ain't gonna be particularly mild for a while yet.

Edited October 24, 2012 by Chris D

[Essan]

I think there is a real chance the October minimum temp record could be matched or broken here though. Record is currently -3.6, and BBC weather have Swindon down for -3 Saturday night.

My record Oct min is -2.9c on the 21st and again on the 26th Oct 2003. Not convinced I'll see that broken. Latest GFS does however suggest -1c on Sat morning so with luck we may at least see an earlier frost than last winter - which only arrived in December! As for low level snow in this part of England? More likely to see a fire tornado dancing down the high street in clogs....... :lol:

[Snowstorm1]

Trough near Shetland on friday worth an eye keeping on down the eastern side of UK

[EML Network]

interesting Fax update for Saturday , big shift East of the 528 Line from the previous updates.

and is that a line of PPN I see flirting with N. France ??

wouldn't take a huge shift for that to be over SE England....I wonder ?

[Barry12]

Braemar's certainly feeling it, highs of 1C on saturday with snow.

[feb1991blizzard]

Good luck to anyone who does get a belting from that trough / polar low because i certainly aint in line for it.

[ZONE 51]

NAE 18z/48hrs

Thickness 500/1000hpa:

Arctic plunge, if you like things getting cold then thats the chart for you!

The precipitation rain/snow chart next(48hrs) shows where snow should fall within the coldest zones,

The next chart 500/1000hpa Thickness from GFS 18z/48hrs,

next zooming in to the UK(GFS 18z/54hrs) we can the 528 dam line hits the south coast,

A wintry scene of frost,and for some, snowfall, from Thursday night in Scotland, the cold air sweeping across all areas through Friday. For snow watching it's best to take each day as it comes as things can change, it is likely Scotland would have snowfall to low levels, with this progressing to northern hills as we go through the next several days, the risk is lower the further south but as always this can change.

ESS

Edited October 24, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Coast]

Look at those night-time surface temps on Saturday!!

Wrap up warm this weekend although the threat of snow seems to have largely gone at the moment.

Edited October 25, 2012 by Coast

[GulberwickWeather]

Certainly chilly up here today! Temp 3.2C Dew -0.5C. Like the look of tomorrow for here!

[cyclonic happiness]

Seems like alot of the interest has seeped away for the 'cold snap' over the last 24 hours, but there's still time for change, stilltime for the main bulk of the cold that's been projected to fall to the west of us, to move east, as it more often than not, does.

Even so, it's looking pretty damn cold for the majority of the UK, although those looking for snow south of the border, will be disappointing ,those looking for frost, should not

[lightningst]

I think this cold spell is been very overrated. The night time low for my area is 5c which means we wont even see a frost! i think the cold snap should be renamed colder snap!

[Gord]

Indeed, as interesting as the actual weather pattern is, conditions on the ground will feel like a typical Autumn cold snap. I think where this interests me is the fact that we are getting one or two early frosts this Autumn. Again, not out of the ordinary but hugely different to last year. However, that won't stop me from monitoring the progress of the cold air as it moves southwards...like I said, it's an interesting pattern.

I'm not excited about the cold snap...more relieved that the current mild pattern isn't going to stick around for weeks on end like Autumn last year. Always good to see weather patterns moving along!

[Methuselah]

IMO, although this spell of rather cold weather has been on the cards for some time, it has also been ramped out of all proportion...Indeed when, if ever (2009,10 excepted perhaps) have any of those cherry-picked model-charts been correct?

Remember: if it looks too good to be true, it's usually because it is...

[gottolovethisweather]

Yes, I would say we are now going to receive a brief watered down version of a cold spell and this latest guidance courtesy of the MOD thread appears to back that up. However, for the time of year it will feel like a typical cool Autumnal scene for many a day thereafter. Unfortunately, longer-term there does appear to a consensus for a North-westerly/Westerly flow bringing a lot more precipitation to all areas.

More immediately, what will be noticeable is a notable decrease in Temperatures over the next 24-36 hours. Friday for my location, will be a day where I can be watching the Temperatures steadily falling throughout the day. Come late afternoon and into the evening and beyond, there is a slim chance of snowfall away from the more Northern areas. I will therefore be radar and satellite watching during this time.

The two attached charts shown below illustrate two infiltrations of the colder air, one from midday Friday and the other from 12 hours later. The potency of both outbreaks need to be closely watched IMO.

Edited October 25, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Aaron]

Surprised a thread was even necessary for this considering it isn't looking particularly interesting anymore. Should be good snowfall totals in Scotland though. A harsh frost or two here.

Edited October 25, 2012 by Aaron

[Summer Sun]

Yellow warning for Ice issued for parts of northern Scotland

http://www.metoffice...ather/warnings/

Edited October 25, 2012 by Summer Sun

[GulberwickWeather]

Snowing quite heavily here at the moment

[Methuselah]

Surprised a thread was even necessary for this considering it isn't looking particularly interesting anymore. Should be good snowfall totals in Scotland though. A harsh frost or two here.

Yes, but it was looking interested when the thread was created...

[Bumpkin]

I don't know about a cold snap, I'm still waiting for the Indian summer i read about last week

[Keraunic]

Surprised a thread was even necessary for this considering it isn't looking particularly interesting anymore. Should be good snowfall totals in Scotland though. A harsh frost or two here.

Well I'm interested!!!

[Aaron]

Yes, but it was looking interested when the thread was created...

Was it? There was never the potential for lowland snowfall away from the NE of Scotland and the Northern Isles. This thread is now defunct. This is no different to that little cool pool we had in October 2010 which didn't receive any attention or dedicated threads.

Edited October 25, 2012 by Aaron

[Methuselah]

Was it? There was never the potential for lowland snowfall away from the NE of Scotland and the Northern Isles. This thread is now defunct. This is no different to that little cool pool we had in October 2010 which didn't receive any attention or dedicated threads.

Have you forgotten which forum you're on?

[Keraunic]

Even if there IS no lowland snowfall, it's still interesting to see what happens further up North. If we get some sleet in EA over the weekend-I'll be happy with that for now. and there is always the possibility of the outlook changing. Nothing can be ruled out completely where the weather is concerned.

[Thundery wintry showers]

East Anglia is probably a bit too far south in my opinion but I think sleetiness to low levels is possible as far south as Lincolnshire, with the winds set to veer slightly east of due north which should help to bring wintry showers inland on Friday afternoon and overnight Friday/Saturday.

[GulberwickWeather]

The forces of "if it isn't snowing in Englandshire then it isn't snowing" are legion!