Model Output Discussion 26/10 2012 >

[Harve]

HI Fred- Im not happy with the current output- doesnt feel right.

expect change tomorrow.

S

You may be a very respected member, but posts like this are frustrating. What's your basis for the output not 'feeling' right? Surely intuition, which is what your post implies, is a bit foolish?

I think your post would be more accurate if it said:

"I'm not happy with the current output; it doesn't show what I'm looking for. Hoping for change tomorrow."

[bluearmy]

You may be a very respected member, but posts like this are frustrating. What's your basis for the output not 'feeling' right? Surely intuition, which is what your post implies, is a bit foolish?

I think your post would be more accurate if it said:

"I'm not happy with the current output; it doesn't show what I'm looking for. Hoping for change tomorrow."

Steve is expecting the nwp to change its trend based on what he sees in the models now and years of experience. At the moment, its not doing that so his comment is valid. I would say that Steve is right more times than he is wrong but he isn't right all the time - no one is!

I suspect he is going to be even more frustrated this morning.

[snow drift]

Steve is expecting the nwp to change its trend based on what he sees in the models now and years of experience. At the moment, its not doing that so his comment is valid. I would say that Steve is right more times than he is wrong but he isn't right all the time - no one is!

I suspect he is going to be even more frustrated this morning.

There are possibly 3 groups of posters. First, a group that comment on what the models are showing and what weather this would bring. Second, what the models are showing and how things may change because of other indicators and trends they have seen before and thirdly, inexperienced people who hang on every word of group 1 and 2. This is the most frustrating group to be in because you want a certain type of weather but rely on others to see if it may happen.

I was in the third group and now after taking time to try and understand the output, I would put myself in group 1. Reading posts from people I feel are in group 2 is now not frustrating more interesting to see why they feel things are "wrong". This aides my learning and helps to get me to group 2, which is where I aspire to be.

Edited November 6, 2012 by snow drift

[Duane S.]

You may be a very respected member, but posts like this are frustrating. What's your basis for the output not 'feeling' right? Surely intuition, which is what your post implies, is a bit foolish?

I think your post would be more accurate if it said:

"I'm not happy with the current output; it doesn't show what I'm looking for. Hoping for change tomorrow."

If you take time to look back through Steve's posts you will see you are way off the mark infering that 'intuition' was behind that comment.

Not much change this morning though from the 00z's. The next 10 days or so look to be fairly well set now. I said last week to expect some more more interesting chart outputs from later this week as FI creeps towards the tail end of November, watch this space. Again though the vortex, despite entering the Greenland area and winding up, is seemingly then easily broken up and hints at HLB in deep FI on the GFS.

MJO hinting of a move back to phase 1 / 8 after a benign period and again makes me think of 1985/6 here, maybe for us now more towards the end of the month...

Leading to... ?

(Apologies to those who saw my attachments and thought they were outputs from this year )

[IDO]

The quasi cool zonal mix of October looks like extending to the end of November. The 0z today is much of the same right through to the end of its run. Variance from yesterday's runs are that HP is less progressive than trough activity, vice versa yesterday.

Temps, average to cool with dry periods between the rain, that is after this relatively dry working week.

In fact, although yesterday was disappointing, today's appears to have no Scandi blocking at all and it is apparent that the westerly flow of these lows, simply push the Atlantic highs east into Siberia/Russia territory, with not even a passing shot at Scandinavia; a further step back from recent runs. So not a hint of cold on this run.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121106/00/384/npsh500.png

The above is the PV at the end of FI, still flabby, but any cold progged to spill into North America and Siberia. So there remains potential for change to favour the UK, but as ever just as much chance that it will miss us, despite the good synoptics reviewed by the experts on here.

The ensembles go out to 22 Nov and show a mean in Aberdeenshire around 0c for much of FI (T850s):

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20121106/00/t850Aberdeenshire.png

No real cold options in there at all, cool at best.

As with last year, all can change, but it does appear that we are stuck in this pattern and GFS are giving little indication of a change to colder (or milder) weather.

[Gibby]

Good morning. Here is the morning look at the 00zs from GFS, UKMO, GEM and ECM for today Tuesday November 6th 2012.

All models show a developing NW to West airflow over the UK pushing the remains of the colder air currently over Southern Britain away South and East today. A weak warm front is shown to move SE today carrying some light rain with it particularly to Northern and Eastern areas. Behind it a rtaher cloudy airflow follows with a few brighter spells but a stiff breeze, especially in the North. On Thursday a weak cold front is shown to cross the UK with a spell of rain followed by clearer weather with some clear spells, mist and a touch of frost possible on Thursday night. On Friday a more active Low pressure systems moves towards the UK from off he Atlantic carrying a band of quite heavy rain across the UK, starting later on Friday in the North and West and reaching the far East later on Saturday. It will become colder behind it with a NW airflow briefly on Sunday with wintry showers on Northern hills for a time and rain showers near Western coasts.

GFS then moves on into next week with the UK falling under the influence of a deep Low out to the NW with a warm front bringing milder and wet conditions back on Monday with a strong SW airflow with rain at times developing thereafter. Through FI this morning the changeable pattern persists with showers or longer spells of rain. There will be some relatively mild days but some rather colder ones too behind the passage of cold fronts, in the showery air. However, with winds mostly between SW and NW nothing really cold is on offer.

The GFS Ensembles show if anything the changeable pattern of recent runs deepening with some copious rainfall developing as troughs are more active and slow moving as troughs stall over the UK at times. Temperatures would show an undulating pattern typical of Autumnal unsettled spells without ever becoming overly mild or cold with 850's showing an average for November level when taken as a whole.

The Jet Stream shows the Northern arm currently flowing South over the UK before a general trend for it to blow East from the States and over the UK by a week's time. The Southern arm to the South of the UK will continue to weaken and disrupt over the coming days.

UKMO for midnight on Monday shows a weak ridge crossing the UK with a touch of frost in places Sunday night followed by a warm front with milder weather and a band of rain crossing east over the UK in the day that follows.

GEM shows a very unsettled evolution beyond 144 hours with rain and strong winds featuring for all of the UK in rather colder conditions again at times as Low pressure swing in from the West over Britain.

ECM also shows a warm front moving in from the West on Monday in association with Low pressure to the NW. Over subsequent days the Low fills and the pressure gradient flattens over the UK with rain giving way to quieter and reasonably mild weather with any rain restricted to the North by day 10 as a High pressure ridge develops close to the South of the UK.

In Summary a typical late Autumn set up is showing it's hand over the UK for the next few weeks as Low pressure close to the NW or North of Britain remains the dominant player. There will be showers or spells of sometimes heavy rain in all areas. It will be windy with gales at times too, especially in the North and West. All models show the chance of colder polar maritime conditions with showers for brief spells in between the rain bands but snow would be transient and restricted to Northern mountains only. Temperatures on the whole will average near to normal for much of the time, though nothing particularly mild is shown.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

The quasi cool zonal mix of October looks like extending to the end of November. The 0z today is much of the same right through to the end of its run. Variance from yesterday's runs are that HP is less progressive than trough activity, vice versa yesterday.

Temps, average to cool with dry periods between the rain, that is after this relatively dry working week.

In fact, although yesterday was disappointing, today's appears to have no Scandi blocking at all and it is apparent that the westerly flow of these lows, simply push the Atlantic highs east into Siberia/Russia territory, with not even a passing shot at Scandinavia; a further step back from recent runs. So not a hint of cold on this run.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121106/00/384/npsh500.png

The above is the PV at the end of FI, still flabby, but any cold progged to spill into North America and Siberia. So there remains potential for change to favour the UK, but as ever just as much chance that it will miss us, despite the good synoptics reviewed by the experts on here.

The ensembles go out to 22 Nov and show a mean in Aberdeenshire around 0c for much of FI (T850s):

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20121106/00/t850Aberdeenshire.png

No real cold options in there at all, cool at best.

As with last year, all can change, but it does appear that we are stuck in this pattern and GFS are giving little indication of a change to colder (or milder) weather.

I fail to understand how your able to say with confindence "looks like we will see this zonal mix to the end of November"??

When the models pick a new trend , they will not pick it up at t384 and work its way forward, it picks it up normally in early to mid fi , it's showing the same thing at the min right trough because there is nothing else it's picking up strongly , it's almost default pattern it does year in year out.

Expect a good 10 days or so of this pattern, then hints of a change, the Siberian high showing its hands was a signal that in my opinion was picked up from the extensive snow cover, however some of the snow has already melted, it was a false dawn in my opinion, maybe it's sign of things to come later, but I admire and listen to gp intently so I feel we could well look north toward months end rather than east.

[IDO]

I fail to understand how your able to say with confindence "looks like we will see this zonal mix to the end of November"??

When the models pick a new trend , they will not pick it up at t384 and work its way forward, it picks it up normally in early to mid fi , it's showing the same thing at the min right trough because there is nothing else it's picking up strongly , it's almost default pattern it does year in year out.

Expect a good 10 days or so of this pattern, then hints of a change, the Siberian high showing its hands was a signal that in my opinion was picked up from the extensive snow cover, however some of the snow has already melted, it was a false dawn in my opinion, maybe it's sign of things to come later, but I admire and listen to gp intently so I feel we could well look north toward months end rather than east.

No Scandinavia block, no cold pooling in Europe; cold to the UK is therefore going to come from the N/NW. In the current pattern this will only be PM topplers. At the moment the uppers are not being forecast as cold enough (at this time of year) to give us a snow event, though hill snow is always possible, so the current output seems to point to zonal. Not saying there is no chance of a flip, but in the last four weeks it could have flipped, with these good Synoptics, it didn't, so why now? Especially when the model output is much flatter than of late with little scatter from ensembles. The solid bet is a static westerly pattern till the FI gives reliable feed for a switch to a different scenario.

Edited November 6, 2012 by i'm dreaming of...

[ANYWEATHER]

It seems like the moaning thread rather than the model thread on here LOL!! Just scanned through the models and a typical November comes to mind with some milder and colder spells for all of us at times! I think some people forget that some people have been treated to some unseasonably early snowfall over the last few weeks probably historically early in one or two locations.

[Nick F]

I sense some frustration creeping in, because the charts aren't producing anything particularly wintry for us for the foreseeable, but sometimes we have to except that we have to endure periods of unsettled Atlantic dominated weather through late autumn and winter.

Appears to be little deviation this morning from the output in showing a stagnant wave pattern that has a mean trough close to the W and NW of the UK and a big block to the east blocking its progress eastwards. The UK always under the influence of a cyclonic west or southwest flow, so unsettled, though temperatures fluctuating between average to slightly below - due to rPm airmass incursions - which could still bring a threat of patchy frost with wintry precip. over northern hills.

Edited November 6, 2012 by Nick F

[EML Network]

I sense some frustration creeping in, because the charts aren't producing anything particularly wintry for us for the foreseeable, but sometimes we have to except that we have to endure periods of unsettled Atlantic dominated weather through late autumn and winter.

Appears to be little deviation this morning from the output in showing a stagnant wave pattern that has a mean trough close to the W and NW of the UK and a big block to the east blocking its progress eastwards. The UK always under the influence of a cyclonic west or southwest flow, so unsettled, though temperatures fluctuating between average to slightly below - due to rPm airmass incursions - which could still bring a threat of patchy frost with wintry precip. over northern hills.

SPOT ON !!

I suspect that had October been a very mild month, expectations wouldn't be so high and that we'd all be quite pleased about how November was shaping up ...we've not had many a month this year where the weather has been typical for the time of the season (some places have not had a ''typical'' month all year long), so if were to get such synoptic's that are close to what one would expect , I'd rather it be now and as we head towards Winter, rather than at any other time of year.

[latitude]

No Scandinavia block, no cold pooling in Europe; cold to the UK is therefore going to come from the N/NW. In the current pattern this will only be PM topplers. At the moment the uppers are not being forecast as cold enough (at this time of year) to give us a snow event, though hill snow is always possible, so the current output seems to point to zonal. Not saying there is no chance of a flip, but in the last four weeks it could have flipped, with these good Synoptics, it didn't, so why now? Especially when the model output is much flatter than of late with little scatter from ensembles. The solid bet is a static westerly pattern till the FI gives reliable feed for a switch to a different scenario.

'zonal' isnt a word I would use to describe weather from the N/NW as you describe.

[Methuselah]

'zonal' isnt a word I would use to describe weather from the N/NW as you describe.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zonal

[Polar Maritime]

'zonal' isnt a word I would use to describe weather from the N/NW as you describe.

Cold Zonal if you want to nit pick, But it is a Zonal pattern showing across the models.

[latitude]

Cold Zonal if you want to nit pick, But it is a Zonal pattern showing across the models.

You misunderstood my post. Never heard of zonal weather from the North.

[Polar Maritime]

You misunderstood my post. Never heard of zonal weather from the North.

ImDreaming.. said N/N/W flow, not a true North, more West, with the odd rPM shot.

Edited November 6, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[IDO]

You misunderstood my post. Never heard of zonal weather from the North.

Hi. I was highlighting a zonal pattern with any cold coming from PM shots and not from more favored sustained cold flows. The GFS 06z again highlights this; overall a west to east pattern with the odd trough drawing in PM air. These shots vary in timing according to the strength of the easterly block but the trend remains to flatten them out in comparative short thrift. The pattern is distinct at the moment, just the minute detail to sort out within later runs.

Edited November 6, 2012 by i'm dreaming of...

[carinthian]

Cheer up cold lovers. Not all is lost, still only Autumn. Compared to this time last year the Uk and much of Europe was much milder. I note several frosts recorded this month,, even on the south coast. Snowfall as far south as the higher ground in Dorset before Bonfire night ! Hardly any was reported there in the whole of the last winter period. The long term numericals are still expecting a 75% colder than average December and 40% for November. Here in central Europe the prediction for the start of the offical winter season is for the Russian High to produce the cold. The UK is always going to be on the boundry of cold/mild, but be heartened by recent trends. A milder spell has always been on the cards during the middle period of November as been suggested by the UKMO longer term forecasts.

C

[andymusic]

Still only 6th November - models giving us a more milder flow for the foreseeable - coldies will need a little patience now - but things WILL change - keep the faith!

[legritter]

A little bit of a tease on GFS run in its later stages . will have to see what following runs bring .By the time we get to late tomorrow we could be looking at a different outlook . but the odviouse over the next 5/6 days mildish to start then slightly cooler and breezy with some rain .I wont be clutching the GFS straw but just waiting patiently for some more runs .catch up with you later for the evening Show .

[Frosty.]

Yet again we are faced with a very unsettled looking ens mean from the gfs and ecm today, persistent low pressure just to the northwest of the uk, occasionally dipping further south but maintaining a rather cool north atlantic flow and occasionally polar maritime with showers and longer spells of rain, windy at times and sometimes cold enough for snow on northern hills and mountains, the polar front jet well to the south of the uk but no sign of any arctic outbreaks. All the way through the run, the huge anticyclonic block remains well to the east, too far out to influence our weather but it throws out probably one of the largest ridges (extending from russia to the azores) you could ever see towards the end of the gfs mean (18Z-00Z), ultimately we would probably see that ridge extending north to cover the uk with our low retreating further northwest towards iceland and filling at the same time. So, a brief break in the chilly showery regime this week, a tad milder and cloudier but with some patchy rain mixed with sunny intervals, then turning very unsettled to the northwest by thursday and then all areas turning cooler again and more unsettled by the weekend, also a risk of frost returning during the weekend, moreso early next week as a flat ridge pushes east but followed by a prolonged very unsettled outlook with winds between sw'ly and nw'ly and temps just below average at 6-10c north to south but with slight overnight frosts in the clearer slots.

Edit: some of the gfs data is 18z, probably obsolete by now but very interesting in extended range.

Edited November 6, 2012 by Frosty039

[Heisenberg]

The UK MO further outlook is suggesting well below temps which is nice to see from the cold lovers perspective. Fingers crossed they are on to something.....As ever with this roller coaster....patience.

[johnholmes]

Looking at 500mb anomaly charts, NOAA, ECMWF-GFS and NAEFS for T+240 and they all suggest that the period out to then is going to have –ve 500mb heights in the UK area stretching north westwards towards Iceland and Greenland, although less marked. Positive heights on all of them are predicted to be in 3 main areas, a band from close to the Mediterranean into central Russia with a weak link then to another larger +ve signal over the far east towards Alaska and the third area of +ve heights, again showing on all 3 models, is in the Newfoundland area.

This would suggest to me that our current weather type, as others have suggested of rPm (returning Polar Maritime) with short bursts of Pm (Polar Maritime) NOT Arctic is with us for the foreseeable future, 10-15 days.

There is some indication on the ECMWF-GFS output this morning that, at least for a time, heights in the UK area may rise suggesting a corresponding rise in surface temperatures, but as that is the first time this flow south of west has shown its too early to suggest any marked mild episode. Equally the 500mb +ve heights to our east look, over the past couple of days to be less likely to grow and expand.

So much of the same, a bit milder at times, a touch colder alternating in a fairly disturbed period. No major gales showing but then that is for much closer on the synoptic models.

[bradymk]

Still do not think that the model output is too bad, especially compared to last year with temporary cooler pm outbreaks interspersed with milder periods as the azores high becomes more influential. However, the metoffice 16-30 update is very encouraging with well below temps by the end of the period once again highlighting the end of the month/start of december to be a period of watch.

[Eskimo]

Still do not think that the model output is too bad, especially compared to last year with temporary cooler pm outbreaks interspersed with milder periods as the azores high becomes more influential. However, the metoffice 16-30 update is very encouraging with well below temps by the end of the period once again highlighting the end of the month/start of december to be a period of watch.

Where does it say this? I have read it and it doesn't say "well below" just "below the seasonal average".

EDIT: Just seen it at the end of the paragraph.

Edited November 6, 2012 by PerfectStorm