Model Output Discussion 12z 07/11/2012

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi Nick

Yes that is the pattern I envisaged and re the HP over Newfoundland I wonder how much the warm anomaly SST pattern there has played in it....it was a 'fear' of mine that it would reinforce heights there and not support Greenland heights/or if NAO was -ve it would be west based. And I agree as above, its not a disastrous position as you say if the trough sinks or portion splits then mild can quickly become cold. I also suspect that the block to our east isn't going anywhere...so let's see what's down the line. However, I do believe that we have to go through the mild spell. Indeed we could have some very pleasant late autumn weather.

BFTP

Edited November 11, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Frosty.]

Not much change in todays output but whats becoming more evident is that whilst the operationals are trying to work out where any troughing sets up this CPC map may well be closer to the money.

http://www.cpc.ncep....y/814day.03.gif

Broadly speaking high pressure to the east and low pressure anchored more to the west. This could bring some mild conditions in connection with a southerly flow but where does the pattern go after that?

This depends on whether that troughing sinks or a portion splits and edges into Iberia forcing a change in the flow more towards the se, also how much energy continues to run over the top towards Scandinavia.

As yet too early to say here but given the current state of the stratosphere if you're looking for colder weather its more likely to be coming from the east at least initially.

I would say intitially we are looking at a few weeks of mild or average temps which takes us to 25th and then it might turn colder but odds probably favour cold from the nw rather than east, low pressure near iceland looks like becoming a persistent feature.

Hats off to you Fred (Blast) for calling this mild spell which is now nailed.

Edited November 11, 2012 by Frosty039

[bluearmy]

Am I the only one who is unsure how 'mild' this upcoming period will actually be? I can see a couple of days here and there of above av max temps but mild? Less chilly than we've become used to indeed but surely average would be nearer the mark?

[nick sussex]

Hi Nick

Yes that is the pattern I envisaged and re the HP over Newfoundland I wonder how much the warm anomaly SST pattern there has played in it....it was a 'fear' of mine that it would reinforce heights there and support Greenland heights. And I agree as above, its not a disastrous position as you say if the trough sinks or portion splits then mild can quickly become cold. I also suspect that the block to our east isn't going anywhere...so let's see what's down the line. However, I do believe that we have to go through the mild spell. Indeed we could have some very pleasant late autumn weather.

BFTP

Yes certainly a spell of milder weather looks likely given where that troughing is likely to set up, but historically we've seen quite a few balmy southerlies turn into much colder se then easterlies.

I think patience will be needed though and we'd need that troughing to pivot and orientate nw/se to force high pressure nw out of Europe.

The CPC map on Friday was better in that respect as it had positive anomalies heading over the top of the troughing, the automated one not done by the forecasters on Saturday removed those positive anomalies.

We'll have to see what happens tomorrow, the ECM ensemble maps are a mixed bag but a few stand out in terms of potential.

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2009112700!!/

[Ian Brown]

Hard to see where any cold would be coming from given the current output. The High to the East is not going to back West, rather it needs to retreat further to get depressions past the Meridian. But with the PV getting established anyway, I would write November off now.

[bluearmy]

http://www.meteo24.fr/fr/home/meteo-france-et-europe/passion-meteo/ensemble-de-previsions.html?eps=london

The trend continues on ECM ens.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Am I the only one who is unsure how 'mild' this upcoming period will actually be? I can see a couple of days here and there of above av max temps but mild? Less chilly than we've become used to indeed but surely average would be nearer the mark?

Yep I have been surprised by many comments of very mild next week, I see Tuesday and Friday next week as milder, 13c maybe, but other than that it's figures of 9-10c - not very mild in my book. That's looking at todays 06z 2m temps and the bbc weather online.

Edited November 11, 2012 by No balls like Snow Balls

[SMU]

Hard to see where any cold would be coming from given the current output. The High to the East is not going to back West, rather it needs to retreat further to get depressions past the Meridian. But with the PV getting established anyway, I would write November off now.

Write off November with nearly 3 weeks left...

Why dont you write the whole of winter off...

[Duane S.]

Hard to see where any cold would be coming from given the current output. The High to the East is not going to back West, rather it needs to retreat further to get depressions past the Meridian. But with the PV getting established anyway, I would write November off now.

A bold statement. I too would *ahem* 'write off' the next 10 days for sure as the longwave pattern is nailed. Beyond that I believe we will see a tussle between the cold stratosphere starting to wind up our vortex and other other factors that will attempt to disrupt its formation, wave activity and e-QBO forcing and may coincide with a favourable MJO phase.

Edited November 11, 2012 by Paul
Removed the non-model related bits - winter predictions etc are better off in the winter chat thread :-)

[chionomaniac]

I would say intitially we are looking at a few weeks of mild or average temps which takes us to 25th and then it might turn colder but odds probably favour cold from the nw rather than east, low pressure near iceland looks like becoming a persistent feature.

Hats off to you Fred (Blast) for calling this mild spell which is now nailed.

Err it hasn't happened yet and it couldn't be further from the reasons behind Fred's mild spell. Fred called a west based -NAO - we are actually seeing the whole pv relocating to this area in such magnitude that the end result is the same.

It would be like me calling cold from a northerly and then when if get cold from a warm inversion high - with no northerly in sight, being right!!!

[Methuselah]

Not writing-off the winter (it hasn't even started yet!) but, just at the moment, the signs of impending Snowmageddon are few-and-far-between...

With all things considered, I think that the models have done quite a good job regarding recent developments...but, as with many a westerly-type regime, the balance between TM and RPM airmasses will prove difficult to pin-down.

[ukpaul]

Am I the only one who is unsure how 'mild' this upcoming period will actually be? I can see a couple of days here and there of above av max temps but mild? Less chilly than we've become used to indeed but surely average would be nearer the mark?

We're going to hit double figures for a few days, apart from that I wouldn't call the rest mild! Are people going to be walking around without a coat?!? I think some may be looking at 850s and extrapolating what may happen in Summer months, the differential for Autumn going into winter is not the same.

EDIT: Should point out that I was referring to the South East, other areas will likely be even cooler.

Edited November 11, 2012 by ukpaul

[Liam J]

Write off November with nearly 3 weeks left...

Why dont you write the whole of winter off...

Not that anyone should but, it wouldn't exactly be difficult to now write the remaining half of November off given current outputs? 3 weeks today it'll be the 2nd of December. still 3 whole months of winter to digest yet

Edited November 11, 2012 by Liam J

[Paul]

Just to avoid this thread heading of on a tangent towards winter outlooks etc - please do keep it to the models in here, winter chat can be found here:

Thanks

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday is looking like been the warmest day of the week with temperatures widely into double figures

Wednesday see's temperatures remaining in double figures parts of France have temps around 20c on Wednesday

[Frosty.]

This is how the Gfs 06z views the milder week ahead, some days milder than others but then after midweek, the mildest weather becomes concentrated to the southeast with 13-14c possible, mainly it's 10-12c range but some areas below average at 8c in any misty(foggy) areas which are likely as the pattern becomes stagnant, becoming much cooler to the north and west with single digit celsius later, only the SE mild next saturday but colder down there by sunday, beyond that, a mix of ridges and depressions with mild sectors and cooler phases. The sunniest weather is today, tomorrow cloudier everywhere with patchy rain for most areas and heavier more persistent rain for the far northwest, still damp on tuesday but then drier with light winds, a risk of frost for many by the weekend, even for the southeast for sunday night.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Err it hasn't happened yet and it couldn't be further from the reasons behind Fred's mild spell. Fred called a west based -NAO - we are actually seeing the whole pv relocating to this area in such magnitude that the end result is the same.

It would be like me calling cold from a northerly and then when if get cold from a warm inversion high - with no northerly in sight, being right!!!

C

Actually I didn't call for a west based -ve NAO, rather disingenuous of you, and yes you can call up my posts, I was actually placing a potential scenario to my mild flip bearing GPs thoughts in mind as he is a pretty decent LRF man. The main basis was that we'd have a block to our east, LPs would not push past our meridion and winds from southerly direction. As a suggestion I mentioned that a west -ve NAO could develop as I felt that due to the SST situation the Newfoundland area would keep pressure high and thus if we had a -ve NAO with GHP heights as suggested by GP this would tilt the -ve NAO west based. Here was my answer to you on 2nd Nov. I agre too though that we are not there yet as per my post earlier today, 3-7 days away and things can and regularly do.

In autumn I think we either have a long fetch SW'ly or a southerly wind, no other direction brings mild in late autumn [maybe HP over us with lots of sunshine but nights would be cold, so what scenarios bring these conditions. +ve NAO with LPs sweeping SW to NW with deep PV over Greenland, west based -ve NAO or trough to our west and big block to east bringing southerly flow. So lets see how mild it does get.

Hi Ed

Current climate set up ie low solar state, PDO, perturbation cycle lends towards amplified jetstream so some places will get 'unusual' cold and some will get 'unusual' warmth due to the amplification. With huge block progged to our Eastern lands LPs aren't making their way towards Russia. I feel that if the said amplification of the N A ridge occurs as hinted by the MT and MJO [as suggested by GP] the SST set up in North Atlantic off New Foundland will assist IMO in keeping that High Pressure/ridge west and with LPs not getting very far east we 'could' have a west based -ve NAO set up. I see a mild set up coming and that is a possible scenario of a UK mild set up if the MT and MJO events produce what GP suggests? Models seem to be backing ridges and trough west slightly. Obviously I look at external forcing but am trying to put internal reasoning onto it as well.

I'm hoping for the opposite of course...

BFTP

BLAST FROM THE PAST on 03 November 2012 - 09:28 in Weather Discussion and Chat

Another scenario that could play out, putting things in place with the mild signal I have on my method. The SST around Newfoundland will have HP centred around there is a concern of mine. A westerly flow with winds likely from SW bringing mild to v mild conditions would ensue with the vortex there. It will be interesting to see if a flat pattern emerges, a big change from the signals yesterday though re MJO and MT events. GP suggested that we'd see some waxing and waning before Greenland heights return so that may be something the models will do. Its all FI so as you say one to watch for sure, because if it sets up shop its Usually there for sometime

BFTP

Edited November 11, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Polar Maritime]

Pretty normal Autumnal charts across the board, mild in the far South and av/cool in the North with rural overnight frost's. A stark difference to last years very mild November.

[Frosty.]

Err it hasn't happened yet and it couldn't be further from the reasons behind Fred's mild spell. Fred called a west based -NAO - we are actually seeing the whole pv relocating to this area in such magnitude that the end result is the same.

It would be like me calling cold from a northerly and then when if get cold from a warm inversion high - with no northerly in sight, being right!!!

Yes, my mistake, thanks for posting that chio

[Ian Brown]

Write off November with nearly 3 weeks left...

Why dont you write the whole of winter off...

I just don't see how we going to get to a position where the cold air is displaced to mid-latitudes. An easterly is not going to come about from the synoptics being shown in the T144-192 sort of range.

[chionomaniac]

C

Actually I didn't call for a west based -ve NAO, rather disingenuous of you, and yes you can call up my posts, I was actually placing a potential scenario to my mild flip bearing GPs thoughts in mind as he is pretty decent LRF man. The main basis was that we'd have a block to our east, LPs would not push past our meridion and winds from southerly direction. As a suggestion I mentioned that a west -ve NAO could develop as I felt that due to the SST situation the Newfoundland area would keep pressure high and thus if we had a -ve NAO with GHP heights as suggested by GP this would tilt the -ve NAO west based. Here was my answer to you on 2nd Nov. I agre too though that we are not there yet as per my post earlier today, 3-7 days away and things can and regularly do.

In autumn I think we either have a long fetch SW'ly or a southerly wind, no other direction brings mild in late autumn [maybe HP over us with lots of sunshine but nights would be cold, so what scenarios bring these conditions. +ve NAO with LPs sweeping SW to NW with deep PV over Greenland, west based -ve NAO or trough to our west and big block to east bringing southerly flow. So lets see how mild it does get.

Ok sorry Fred I must have been mistaken by the words "we 'could' have a west based -ve NAO set up" when I said that you had said that you had suggested such???????

Anyway back to the models as blocking to the near east is far from certain as well.

Edit : Words in italics may actually mean the opposite - in fact your denial of a west based -ve NAO is hilarious considering I asked you a point blank question about it!

http://forum.netweat...80#entry2395525

Edited November 11, 2012 by chionomaniac

[Frosty.]

Am I the only one who is unsure how 'mild' this upcoming period will actually be? I can see a couple of days here and there of above av max temps but mild? Less chilly than we've become used to indeed but surely average would be nearer the mark?

Disagree to an extent, some very mild weather looks likely in the week ahead, especially towards the southeast quarter of england, 13-14c is very mild for mid november, however, some areas will barely scratch average values, 8-10c for some if they are stuck in mist/fog but tuesday looks mild everywhere with 13c for many, trending cooler for the north and west beyond that, especially into next weekend.

Edited November 11, 2012 by Frosty039

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Ok sorry Fred I must have been mistaken by the words "we 'could' have a west based -ve NAO set up" when I said that you had said that you had suggested such???????

Anyway back to the models as blocking to the near east is far from certain as well.

No probs C, nothing is certain in weather

BFTP

Edited November 11, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[johnholmes]

Just to set the record straight about temperature levels on a November afternoon, the 1981-2000 Met figures, available on their web site, are approximately from 8C in northern Scotland to 11-12C over southern England.

Further to that UK Met definition of v mild is +4 or +5C

mild is +2 to +3C

The period we are in is, to them, a sort of mid way house, that is winter starts mid November for temperature terminology!

Up to mid November then warm or rather warm is used for the two levels quoted above.

At least that was their definition about 3 years ago when I got the latest data from them via private e mail.

Edited November 11, 2012 by johnholmes

[MR EXTREMES]

I think model indications say it all.

Scandi high slipping south into Europe double figures watch and see a wrong set up showing on the models with euro high taking hold.

But very soggy first half to winter.