Scotland Regional Discussion

[Guest]

I got it Since the PV isn't coming back any time soon we're never going to be far from a very cold solution.

It all comes back to looking at the bigger picture. Looking at the bigger picture might not even be on the menu if the UKMO is right, but some peeps need to have a quick check of the date at the bottom right of their screen. Plenty of time for an utter pasting for everyone

[BleakMidwinter]

Mixed feelings about this.... I am on LPG so costs me the GDP of an eastern european country to run my heating in a severe cold spell

And at the other end of the scale, over winter 2010/11 when Embra had constant snow, our heating bills shot down because Midwinter Mansion is too old and oddly-constructed for any roof insulation to be possible, and that blanket of 20 inches of snow on the roof for six weeks did a lovely job of cosying us up! We turned the heating right down for the whole period of the Big Freeze and were warm as toast...

[LomondSnowstorm]

Ok, well the good news is that the issue of the eastern seaboard low appears to have been resolved favourably (although further upgrades would be very helpful before verification), but the bad news is that we now have a potential shortwave pitfall at around 84 hours, and the NAM can't help us with that. I'll give you the paint version of this later on but this is the main reason the ECM fails to inspire tonight.

However, again note the lack of an organised PV and also note that the trough is negatively tilted, so I wouldn't call it a write off by any means, especially not when it does this in the next frame:

[edo]

And at the other end of the scale, over winter 2010/11 when Embra had constant snow, our heating bills shot down because Midwinter Mansion is too old and oddly-constructed for any roof insulation to be possible, and that blanket of 20 inches of snow on the roof for six weeks did a lovely job of cosying us up! We turned the heating right down for the whole period of the Big Freeze and were warm as toast...

That is bonkers ...u just need to design some sort of snow insulation product for old houses and u could be on dragons den

Snowsulate for all your old roof needs

[Norrance]

Well is it going to snow next weekend? My wife's pal is driving up the A9 to the Black isle on Friday after work and returning on Sunday afternoon. She keeps asking me will the roads be ok? After looking at the model thread over the last few days I have told her with regard to the likelihood of snow on the roads: - Yes-no-yes-no yes-no-yes-no-snow- maybe.

Any thoughts from the wise ones if any inhabit this thread?

Edited November 26, 2012 by Norrance

[Northern Strath]

A dull day, with a cold wind, maxed out at 4.7C. Greeted with sleety showers when I arrived home from work.Currently 2.9C.

Some brilliant work as usual from our team of Kilted model analysts, much appreciated! As CMD mentioned, a glance at the calendar tells us lots of time and lots of pastings to come!

Cat Cubie season is early this year!? spotted this insight that will have cans of Lynx hurtling out of windows accross the land (mostly Livingston) CatCutie

edodfc- Dundee? ......Teckle!

[Michael Kaii]

anyone got a spare couch.......cause by the end of the night i might need to be hiding behind it! Model watching really should come with a health warning! no been this neverous about a cold spell haha!

[Snooz]

happy winter peeps.. just saying Hi, but will mostly lurk! - I've some driving to do in next few weeks so have come to where I know I will find the bestest news.. hi to all new and thanks to Lorenzo, LS and the adopted peeps also for keeping us so well informed

[Penicuikblizzard]

Some interesting views tonight from LS, it's good that u are keeping us in the picture of what's ahead mate!!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Well is it going to snow next weekend? My wife's pal is driving up the A9 to the Black isle on Friday after work and returning on Sunday afternoon. She keeps asking me will the roads be ok? After looking at the model thread over the last few days I have told her with regard to the likelihood of snow on the roads: - Yes-no-yes-no yes-no-yes-no-snow- maybe.

Any thoughts from the wise ones if any inhabit this thread?

I'll have a bash, but to be honest it's not easy at the moment with so much variation around.

Starting with the GFS, Friday appears to be dry with uppers not quite conducive to snow:

Through Saturday, the northerly flow brings in colder uppers which increases the chance of snow showers in the northerly flow:

How much snowfall would be highly dependent on the exact direction of the flow and the depth of cold but at the moment it'd be fairly marginal for the Black Isle due to mixing of the localised maritime airmass. By Sunday, we'd then be looking at a possible battleground snowfall, with a front from the west moving into very cold surface temperatures in inland parts:

I'd expect the timing to change but at the moment early afternoon would see the start of precipitation and it would almost certainly be of snow right down the A9, at least initially:

For the ECM, we'd have a slightly colder northerly flow on Friday, so the possibility of some snow showers in the highlands, though again the uppers are likely to move around by a few degrees:

The ECM, however, would more quickly bring in a warm sector, so with perhaps some hill snow overnight Saturday into Sunday it would be almost entirely rain by Sunday midday:

The wildcard here, among these two fairly benign scenarios, is the UKMO. On Friday, with uppers around -6C and a northeasterly flow, snow showers would likely be more potent, though still probably quite marginal for the Black Isle itself:

As the wind turned more to the east and colder uppers encroached convection would become more widespread, particularly for central and eastern parts through onto Sunday, with the potential though for trough to enhance precipitation. I'd imagine the Black Isle itself would be again relatively unlikely to see all that much in the way of snow but through the central belt and down the A9 we'd be looking at widespread accumulations and temperatures close to freezing:

I'd say prepare for the worst case scenario but realistically it'll probably be a middle ground scenario similar to the ECM ensemble mean with uppers around -6/-7C across the north of Scotland with moderate snow showers from Friday afternoon onwards dying out on Sunday as some kind of front approaches, but confidence at this range is unusually and staggeringly low, and there's nothing we can do about that until the models come to some kind of agreement unfortunately.

[Cheggers]

I've some driving to do in next few weeks so have come to where I know I will find the bestest news.

Make sure you leave Tom Tom alone.

Stunning end to a nice but cold day.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I should also note that I do reckon that the GFS and ECM operationals will extend the length of the cold, partly based on the whole NAM incongruity that I explained this morning (basically the US high res. model is consistently backing the UKMO's upstream ideas rather than the GFS's). The difference between a northerly and more easterly flow however depends on whether we get the bloated ECM or the southern streamlined UKMO. Also it depends on whether there's movement of the whole pattern east or west in the next few runs, because any movement of the pattern westwards would increase the risk of a more prolonged and snowy spell.

[West Highland Storm]

Just north of the Fort and 4C with a right chill in the air.

[Northernlights]

Fine day with some sunshine and a maximum temperature of 6c. Different story this evening with a fresh N wind and some moderate rain showers,currently 4.5c

[Norrance]

Thanks LS. Pretty much up in the air for Sunday then as they say. Personally I hope for the battleground with the Atlantic stalling and finally being pushed back. She can always stay an extra day or get the train.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Ok, sorry Norrance, I was looking at the 00Z for the ECM rather than the 12Z

So here goes the ECM again:

Cold but relatively slack north-northwesterly flow on Friday through the day, uppers around -5C to -6C, some wintry showers around though only settling snow on higher ground:

Saturday: intensification of the flow, more snow showers, probably marginal once again for the Black Isle but falling as snow more widely with some troughs perhaps forming further north pepping up precipitation:

Sunday: very cold, uppers widely -7C with temperatures around freezing for most of the day, very icy though mostly dry, front approaching from the west later...:

[LomondSnowstorm]

The pub run shifts to the NAM/UKMO in terms of handling that low off the eastern seaboard. It already shifted a bit through the day but now it looks significantly closer. Could just be that the UKMO finds another friend tonight.

[Kelly]

Ok, sorry Norrance, I was looking at the 00Z for the ECM rather than the 12Z

So here goes the ECM again:

Cold but relatively slack north-northwesterly flow on Friday through the day, uppers around -5C to -6C, some wintry showers around though only settling snow on higher ground:

Saturday: intensification of the flow, more snow showers, probably marginal once again for the Black Isle but falling as snow more widely with some troughs perhaps forming further north pepping up precipitation:

Sunday: very cold, uppers widely -7C with temperatures around freezing for most of the day, very icy though mostly dry, front approaching from the west later...:

For some reason the wind direction has to be just right for us to get decent snowfalls on the Black Isle. I think that is how it got its name? LS the charts you posted earlier from December 2009 were some of the best snowfalls I've seen. Especially New Years eve! My neighbours shed roof collapsed the next day from the weight of the snow!

[LomondSnowstorm]

For some reason the wind direction has to be just right for us to get decent snowfalls on the Black Isle. I think that is how it got its name? LS the charts you posted earlier from December 2009 were some of the best snowfalls I've seen. Especially New Years eve! My neighbours shed roof collapsed the next day from the weight of the snow!

Yes, it's in a very mild spot really, just like the far northeast tip of Aberdeenshire it's hard to get away from the maritime influence and get proper cold unless the airmass is a particularly cold one, like it was in December 2009.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Another shortwave trauma, this one slightly different, both look equally messed up though. Try again tomorrow? I think we should have an answer to the shortwave dilemma by Thursday evening at least:

Edited November 26, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[edo]

So the pub run could just produce (edit spoke too soon) maybe should stay off models till weekend...how weird would it be to ignore all forecasts and not know what the weather is going to do??although to be fair we are in danger of that just now with all the scenarios!!....ithe kids are at the grandparents on sat night in Dundee......please please give me snowmageddon for Sunday so can have an extra day of freedom.....just the 1 extra day though im not heartless..... couldnt do that to my mum and dad

Edited November 26, 2012 by edodfc

[A Winter's Tale]

Just about this time two years ago

After a low of -1C, there was thin cloud cover during the morning which broke up in the afternoon to leave a pleasant sunset with the fantastic colour of the sky with the blend of the blue clear sky and the red on the scattered clouds reflecting the light from the setting sun. Right now the sky is half clear/cloudy but the moon is visible through the thin clouds - calm with temperatures of 5C. I'm looking forward to some pleasant and seasonal weather during the rest of the week with potentially the coldest day of the season so far - possibly the coldest this year. As I tend to enjoy the weather for what it is, I particulary love cold, crisp weather at this time of year but it would be fantastic to have some snow to top it off, perhaps during the coming days as the model begin to have a grasp on the outlook later this week then perhaps there could be a brief taste of something wintry. The model rollercoaster and see-saw continues but it's looking like a generally cool/cold outlook (for Scotland at least) regardless of whether it's zonal or blocked and the potential for further blocking througout December which is a pretty good place to be - it should be interesting to see what sort of weather we get and what the developments regarding the stratosphere and the NH are during December. You never know, we could well be in a big freeze come Christmas with it a bit of luck (hopefully we'll have more solid blocking firmly over Greenland rather than having a block that's under pressure from the jet stream) and with yet more potential for later on in the winter. We are in a much more promising position than we were last year - having said that last December was very good for wintry weather here in Glasgow.

[edo]

Dingys Northern Strath

[edo]

528 line over my house slack flow???

[LomondSnowstorm]

528 line over my house slack flow???

It'll pick up by +120, watch out for that trough...