Winter 2012/13 - General Chat

[cheeky_monkey]

Was bored, so I thought I'd check out the long range CFS raw output for a bit of a giggle.....I've got some fantastic new coldies, a beast from the east is on the cards........The only problem being you'll have to wait 4 months for it, or for Torquay Utd to win the FA Cup....which ever's longest ..........lol

i think this only going one way..that low in the Atlantic backed by the high to south will steam roller from west to east

[Liam J]

Still hoping to see the CFS pick up on stonger blocking signals as we start winter but the output remains one of a very zonal and unsettled outlook through to the end of December. Any decent cold shots are restricted to topplers as the PM air gets dragged down on the back of Atlantic depressions, we'd be on the cold side of the jet so it certainly wouldn't be mild and probably feeling very cold at times.

After reading Chio's post over in the Strat thread then perhaps we shouldn't be expecting high latitude blocking any time soon, quite the opposite?

Charts for Xmas Eve (for fun)

Edited November 9, 2012 by Liam J

[Snowy Easterlies]

Bad news by Chio on the strat thread

time to get the prozac out, unless you choose to ignore him and believe GP's thoughts

[Paul]

I think its important to remember when using the cfs daily maps that they're not bias corrected as the anomaly maps are. And one of the biases which is often evident is that they like to go ott with zonal type scenarios.

[bradymk]

I think its important to remember when using the cfs daily maps that they're not bias corrected as the anomaly maps are. And one of the biases which is often evident is that they like to go ott with zonal type scenarios.

The CFS week 3 & 4 showing some good HLB blocking to our north

[January Snowstorm]

Yes it's the strat against the rest really as far more of the pro's than just GP were going for cold.

Brian from 2, the Met etc etc.

Going by the state of the models right now my punt is with Chino, a mild start to Winter.

Cold zonal is very possible though, maybe even Greeny height rises, but a Scandi high looks a million light years away right now!

Edit: And of course to add to this Europe looks ovenlike for time of year!

Edited November 9, 2012 by January Snowstorm

[Snowy Easterlies]

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-156.png?12

http://modeles.meteo...-11-15-12-0.png

i thought people said we were worse off this time last year compared to this year, the PV looks weaker last year, but what do i know

though later in the month it did strengthen

Edited November 9, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[bradymk]

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-156.png?12

http://modeles.meteo...-11-15-12-0.png

i thought people said we were worse off this time last year compared to this year, the PV looks weaker last year, but what do i know

though later in the month it did strengthen

But a week or so either side of that chart and the PV is definitely not weaker than what it is now. I would disagree that we are worse off this year, we have had a lot of northern blocking throughout the autumn and there are also signs of it in the last few GFS/GEFS runs returning end of the month.

[Paul]

What I find fairly amusing is the regularity of mood swings in here by some members, and I struggle to see what it can be based on? In terms of the winter as a whole there's no new data which could cause this virtually twice daily change of opinion.

So all I can imagine it is is either medium range modelling for the next 2 weeks which is pretty irrelevant when we're talking about the next 3.5 months or its just a physcological thing where certain posters need to be frequently re-assured that it might be cold so go about being as negative as possible in order to get others to feed their need, spend a couple of hours being really positive after the required reassurance then repeat the cycle.

Either way, wouldn't this thread be a better place if we could just look forward to winter, perhaps discuss new data and forecasts as they're released, and maybe even speculate a little on what's to come, rather than this continual mild vs cold up and down type cycle?

[Snowy Easterlies]

yes and that chart i picked out from last year looked like heights were going to build, but then they collapsed and the PV raged and raged, so lets hope its not the same this year with heights trying to build later in the month leading us all up the garden path only for them to get blasted away

Edited November 9, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[SnowObsessor90]

December starting on a milder note doesn't necessarily contradict GP's overall thoughts, even Chino has already gone on record as saying this so need to get the prozac just yet.

Edited November 9, 2012 by Anonymous21

[bobbydog]

Bad news by Chio on the strat thread

time to get the prozac out, unless you choose to ignore him and believe GP's thoughts

its statements like this (not picking on you personally SE) which cause the panic and mood swings which paul refers to above.

if people would read posts properly and not just skim through quickly and pick out keywords, then maybe there would be less 'prozac' flying about.

chio has not said that it will not be cold this winter. he is actually beginning to doubt his own studies, due to the fact that despite a relatively cold strat, there are recurring and growing indications that we could get blocking anyway! this is going against his theories. if this does happen, it doesn't mean he was wrong, it means there are other influences which, under certain conditions, may override the strat. this study is still relatively new and he has never claimed that the strat is the deciding factor of winter. in fact, if he is 'wrong' then it just adds new avenues to explore with regards to understanding the weather.

[johnholmes]

Rather than just ticking the like button can I just re emphasise that point. READ CAREFULLY what is written then THINK about it before typing daft one liners.

Maybe I should just give up and stop reading posts on this site as it is getting very tiresome to read all this up/down attitude be it on the Stratosphere thread where VERY FEW including me really understand that along with the winter and model thread.

Please try and stop being alternately despondent or over the moon based on, either misunderstanding a post, not reading it correctly, or reacting to one model and it does not matter which model. All the chat is about the winter, meteorologically that is 21 days away. No model is all that reliable the further away from T+00 it gets, and no model should be accepted based on one run or one days' runs. Look for patterns, look for continuity, look for agreement between the models. Then PERHAPS 2+2=4 NOT before.

Edited November 9, 2012 by johnholmes

[Snowy Easterlies]

also to me it seems like people have more faith or blind faith in FI this year, usually if we see good charts in FI people would say its at T260 or T280 don't believe it, now people sound certain that something is brewing at that range

Edited November 9, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[bobbydog]

also to me it seems like people have more faith or blind faith in FI this year, usually if we see good charts in FI people would say its at T260 or T280 don't believe it, now people sound certain that something is brewing at that range

thats because usually, the FI charts come up with many different outcomes. then people see one of these variations that they like, then jump all over it as if it is the forecast set in stone.

this time however, there is consistency at the end of nearly all of the runs, pointing to HLB and a weakening vortex. as john has said countless times before, ignore the details and concentrate on trends. there is definitely a trend forming this time, which is why there is so much interest.

[Tony Beets]

Couldn't agree more John, it is getting silly on here at the moment!! The weather is the weather and it will go which ever way it chooses to! Healthy speculation is good as induces debate, caravaning at each other will not achieve anything do keep an open mind and let's get strapped in for a tollercoaster of a winter ride.

[johnholmes]

my part 2 view into about 25/27 November being posted in the model thread, PLEASE read the bit in red first!

[Paul]

Locking this one now, 2 new threads in its place:

Winter emotions - perfect if you're getting excitable or despondent about the winter:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74942-winter-emotions/

Winter general chat - for discussion about the prospects for winter, new seasonal forecasts and data along with general speculation: