Winter 2012/13 - General Chat

[Barry12]

What are your reasons for this

-Negative AO

-Low Solar activity

-Models consistenly showing blocking

-Southerly tracking Jetsream

-Strong Easterly Zonal Winds

-Snowcover

-Record Arctic sea ice melt

-Met office 3 month outlook

-Met office probability charts

-Accuweather forecast

-Stewart's Preliminary thoughts

Edited November 9, 2012 by Barry95

[EML Network]

Bobbydog, you've done it to me again I was just going to post the very same chart. To me that shows a possible greeny block developing

towards the end of the month, and before you all say ,yeh its in Fi , its not the first time its been shown now and it looks to be a start of a TREND.

Normally the end of a GFS run would default to the azures high so lets see.

here's the current chart for the very same time on the 12z run, whilst it's showing a broadly similar pattern you need to be looking at where the real cold that would give us decent snowfall is...if this is to be the trend, then my fear is that we'll end up with a cold easterly as the Met O has hinted at, but that it'll have no teeth.

I.E it'll be cold, but only because of the wind direction..the Met Office 16-30 day outlook has already backed away from using the word "Well Below" to "colder" .

If I was to take a punt, I would say that the likely outcome is for low pressure to sink south and east towards the end of the month, with the Atlantic block stretching up to Greenland still in place, opening the door to an Easterly but a slack one, with no real meat on the bones, where we go from there is anyone's guess

[Weather-history]

One thing I will say, is that if you discount 1987 the vast majority of recent Winters where December has been mild, ...January has followed suite.

So as long as we don't get a mild December , I think there's still all to play for.

The problem with a mild December is that it tends to lead to a Mild January and normally a Mild January will more often than not lead to a Mild Feb..so for me December is going to be the key to the rest of the Winter, average is ok, but if it turns out to be zonal then the rest of winter will not look very promising and we might end up once again having to reply on Feb to bring us something noteworthy

January tended to be mild anyway, if you look at December 1992 and 2001, both those Decembers were below average but the following Januarys were mild.

Decembers 1989, 2003 and 2007 were only just above average against the 1961-90 average, they were actually below the 1971-2000 average but the Januarys were mild.

All you can say is that December bucked the trend somewhat in that period.

What was telling about last winter was despite the very mild Christmas to mid January period, it still manage to record a fortnight that was sub-zero for the CET. Now that didn't happen with any those winters of the 1990s and 2000s, which were mild.

21st December-12th January CET: 8.0C

29th January-12th February CET: -0.6C

Edited November 9, 2012 by Weather-history

[SnowObsessor90]

I think Roger may get this one wrong this winter regarding the early part that is, I see a split vortex taking place towards the end of the month / early December. Looking at the NH profile and comparing it to last year, then we are nowhere near at the same starting point as we were this time last year. I see a cold zonal set up throughout December, sure no Dec 2010 but for the Midlands Northwards it could be a very interesting month.

How would that be different to last year? The last time I checked December 2011 also started on a cool/cold zonal note.

Edited November 9, 2012 by Anonymous21

[Snowy Easterlies]

-Negative AO

-Low Solar activity

-Models consistenly showing blocking

-Southerly tracking Jetsream

-Strong Easterly Zonal Winds

-Snowcover

-Record Arctic sea ice melt

-Met office 3 month outlook

-Met office probability charts

-Accuweather forecast

-Stewart's Preliminary thoughts

lets hope those factors come into play then

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

lets hope those factors come into play then

thats a gud few pieces to the puzzle

[Eugene]

LOL, why are people making such absurd comments like winter is over on only Nov 9th when winter doesn't get going until late December onwards just like summer late June onwards, even the bitterly cold winter of 1962/63 didn't really get going until boxing day onwards, alot of knee jerkers around it seems.

[Summer Sun]

The latest IRI model is going for temperatures to be above normal for winter

Not sure when the November update will be out

[Snowy Easterlies]

The latest IRI model is going for temperatures to be above normal for winter

Not sure when the November update will be out

never heard of this model how reliable is it ?

[Barry12]

...another GFS run doing some rapid transitions in mid tropospheric / lower strat profiles over the high latitudes from day 10 onwards. Normally I regard the GFS op with some scepticism at this range, but it's run after run bang down the middle of the ensemble mean anomalies suggesting a developing 4-wave pattern across the NH days 11-15. Note the continual building of the trough off the east coast of the US which will assist in ridge development towards Newfoundland and Greenland.

[Summer Sun]

never heard of this model how reliable is it ?

I have no idea how reliable it is

[Barry12]

lets hope those factors come into play then

-James maddens forecast

[NorthernRab]

here's the current chart for the very same time on the 12z run, whilst it's showing a broadly similar pattern you need to be looking at where the real cold that would give us decent snowfall is...if this is to be the trend, then my fear is that we'll end up with a cold easterly as the Met O has hinted at, but that it'll have no teeth.

I.E it'll be cold, but only because of the wind direction..the Met Office 16-30 day outlook has already backed away from using the word "Well Below" to "colder" .

If I was to take a punt, I would say that the likely outcome is for low pressure to sink south and east towards the end of the month, with the Atlantic block stretching up to Greenland still in place, opening the door to an Easterly but a slack one, with no real meat on the bones, where we go from there is anyone's guess

It's extremely premature to be discussing wind direction and upper air temperature, don't you think? There's a fairly strong hint for some form of blocking is about all we can really say at the moment.

The latest IRI model is going for temperatures to be above normal for winter

Not sure when the November update will be out

So it's saying that the seas of Europe will almost all be below average, yet none of Europe itself will be? Right...

Edited November 9, 2012 by NorthernRab

[arcticadventurer]

Panic Stations

[NorthernRab]

Panic Stations

?

[Don]

And he very nearly was last Winter, had things gone for us just that little bit more then February could have ended up being far less forgettable but for whatever reason the weather gods just weren't having that.

He was actually correct for the majority of the winter. It was just the second half of February that went a little pear shaped, but I think it's definately fair to say that he predicted the overall pattern for winter correctly.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

LOL, why are people making such absurd comments like winter is over on only Nov 9th when winter doesn't get going until late December onwards just like summer late June onwards, even the bitterly cold winter of 1962/63 didn't really get going until boxing day onwards, alot of knee jerkers around it seems.

That generally untrue, winter earlier than that, amd May often feels like summer, infact my hottest day in 2010, and 2012 were both in May

[Snowy Easterlies]

That generally untrue, winter earlier than that, amd May often feels like summer, infact my hottest day in 2010, and 2012 were both in May

yes thats true may can feel like summer but how often does november feel like winter, not very often, just because it gets dark earlier in november than it does in February means nothing, its all about lag effect and in feb seas are colder, therefore its easier to tap into cold weather then

Edited November 9, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[SnowObsessor90]

He was actually correct for the majority of the winter. It was just the second half of February that went a little pear shaped, but I think it's definately fair to say that he predicted the overall pattern for winter correctly.

He did indeed, I was never disputing that but had he also got the last bit right I'm of firm believe that the winter wouldn't have been viewed nearly as negatively as it is now, unfortunately certain things never quite fell into place for a more prolonged and less marginal cold spell.

Edited November 9, 2012 by Anonymous21

[I remember Atlantic 252]

yes thats true may can feel like summer but how often does november feel like winter, not very often, just because it gets dark earlier in november than it does in February means nothing, its all about lag effect and in feb seas are colder, therefore its easier to tap into cold weather then

1st half of Nov yes, but 2nd half of Nov is 'winter' as snow is easily possible at low levels, and frosts easily possible, ice days

Seas warm in Nov/Dec but daylight advantage for sticking/longer lasting snow

[UV-RAY]

I have no idea how reliable it is

It's probably as accurate as all the rest.

[UV-RAY]

How would that be different to last year? The last time I checked December 2011 also started on a cool/cold zonal note.

Last year was cool zonal at best, I expect more of an NNW influence unlike last year. Hopefully something similar to January 84.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Last year was cool zonal at best, I expect more of an NNW influence unlike last year. Hopefully something similar to January 84.

I dont like the sound of Jan 84, heard it was cold/zonal, snowfests above 300m, mainly rain at lower levels

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

never heard of this model how reliable is it ?

As you all well know it's about as reliable as any other model that tries to predict the temperature months in advance, i.e. not very reliable. Putting that aside, whether it be a above or below average winter one thing is for certain there will still be cold spells

Edited November 9, 2012 by No balls like Snow Balls

[UV-RAY]

I dont like the sound of Jan 84, heard it was cold/zonal, snowfests above 300m, mainly rain at lower levels

Not for the Midlands Northwards, though for those further South it was pretty dire.