Winter 2012/13 - General Chat

[January Snowstorm]

_{Well all I can say is that I would sooner have GP and the Met Office on board rather than the fickle models}

_{One of these days they will pick up the signal, and to be fair both GP and the Met are calling for late Nov anyway which isn't anywhere in range yet for the regular models. There's a reason that the} UKMO _{only goes to 144hrs}

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well for now I'm still going to be clinging to GP's thoughts. Even if December doesn't end going according to plan then that still doesn't discount the possibility of a - AO winter overall which he seems fairly confident of.

If GP is right, I'm sure we'll all want to buy him a pint!

[EML Network]

One thing I will say, is that if you discount 1987 the vast majority of recent Winters where December has been mild, ...January has followed suite.

So as long as we don't get a mild December , I think there's still all to play for.

The problem with a mild December is that it tends to lead to a Mild January and normally a Mild January will more often than not lead to a Mild Feb..so for me December is going to be the key to the rest of the Winter, average is ok, but if it turns out to be zonal then the rest of winter will not look very promising and we might end up once again having to reply on Feb to bring us something noteworthy

[Cheshire Freeze]

_{Well all I can say is that I would sooner have GP and the Met Office on board rather than the fickle models}

_{One of these days they will pick up the signal, and to be fair both GP and the Met are calling for late Nov anyway which isn't anywhere in range yet for the regular models. There's a reason that the} UKMO _{only goes to 144hrs}

Hang on, I've got my magnifying glass somewhere!

[bluearmy]

_{There's a reason that the} UKMO _{only goes to 144hrs}

And thats because they dont see the point of duplicating the ecm model !!!

[Eskimo]

Still don't know how one can 'write off' winter, if it doesn't turn out to be cold then so be it, winter is winter so you can't theoretically write it off. We have been through painful winters where the West/South-West has dominated, this may or may not be one of them, at least we have interesting synoptics to grasp.

[shedhead]

The wording of today 16-30 dayer from the MO returns them firmly to the fence too imo, not that yesterdays update could in any way be decribed as definative. Even then they were only talking about 'there being some suggestions that conditions will turn drier with more in the way of sunshine, but also colder, with temperatures well below the seasonal average', which still left plenty of scope for an exit strategy....albeit a staged one.

I get the feeling we are quickly approaching an important juncture in determining conditions across at least the first half of Winter and unfortunately some of the very recent signals are starting to less favourable for cold. That said there's no denying GP has put forward a very compelling case within his initial Winter thoughts presentation, so we will all just have to show a little more patience and continue to hope that things come back on track pretty soon.

[bobbydog]

all this doom and gloom! am i the only one seeing this? or am i getting it completely wrong? the GFS is consistently showing a shifting vortex and greenland height rises. (to varying degrees between runs but consistent nonetheless) this ties in with GP's thoughts and a few other forecasters. it doesn't mean that blocking is in for the winter but it was forecast before it started showing on the models and now it is!

one thing that confuses me though, is that the meto are predicting cold, dry, frosty weather. that chart looks more unsettled and wintry in nature, maybe even snowy! i know they are mentioning an easterly flow but cold and dry is not exactly unusual or exciting weather for the time of year. why all the hype? is there more to follow than they are letting on?

[UV-RAY]

I actually agree with Roger & BFTP, Feb just might be a goer this year. Going to be a lot of patience tested this year maybe!

I think Roger may get this one wrong this winter regarding the early part that is, I see a split vortex taking place towards the end of the month / early December. Looking at the NH profile and comparing it to last year, then we are nowhere near at the same starting point as we were this time last year. I see a cold zonal set up throughout December, sure no Dec 2010 but for the Midlands Northwards it could be a very interesting month.

[SnowObsessor90]

If GP is right, I'm sure we'll all want to buy him a pint!

And he very nearly was last Winter, had things gone for us just that little bit more then February could have ended up being far less forgettable but for whatever reason the weather gods just weren't having that.

[Eskimo]

all this doom and gloom! am i the only one seeing this? or am i getting it completely wrong? the GFS is consistently showing a shifting vortex and greenland height rises. (to varying degrees between runs but consistent nonetheless) this ties in with GP's thoughts and a few other forecasters. it doesn't mean that blocking is in for the winter but it was forecast before it started showing on the models and now it is!

one thing that confuses me though, is that the meto are predicting cold, dry, frosty weather. that chart looks more unsettled and wintry in nature, maybe even snowy! i know they are mentioning an easterly flow but cold and dry is not exactly unusual or exciting weather for the time of year. why all the hype? is there more to follow than they are letting on?

Am I right in saying that chart was for 2011? Or was that done on purpose to illustrate similarities?

[shedhead]

all this doom and gloom! am i the only one seeing this? or am i getting it completely wrong? the GFS is consistently showing a shifting vortex and greenland height rises. (to varying degrees between runs but consistent nonetheless) this ties in with GP's thoughts and a few other forecasters. it doesn't mean that blocking is in for the winter but it was forecast before it started showing on the models and now it is!

one thing that confuses me though, is that the meto are predicting cold, dry, frosty weather. that chart looks more unsettled and wintry in nature, maybe even snowy! i know they are mentioning an easterly flow but cold and dry is not exactly unusual or exciting weather for the time of year. why all the hype? is there more to follow than they are letting on?

The MO are not predicting dry, cold and frosty weather though. All they have said, both in their forecasts and their recent video presentation is that 'it's one of the possibilities'...to suggest otherwise is both misleading and confusing imo, as well as just being plain wrong.

[shotski]

all this doom and gloom! am i the only one seeing this? or am i getting it completely wrong? the GFS is consistently showing a shifting vortex and greenland height rises. (to varying degrees between runs but consistent nonetheless) this ties in with GP's thoughts and a few other forecasters. it doesn't mean that blocking is in for the winter but it was forecast before it started showing on the models and now it is!

one thing that confuses me though, is that the meto are predicting cold, dry, frosty weather. that chart looks more unsettled and wintry in nature, maybe even snowy! i know they are mentioning an easterly flow but cold and dry is not exactly unusual or exciting weather for the time of year. why all the hype? is there more to follow than they are letting on?

Bobbydog, you've done it to me again I was just going to post the very same chart. To me that shows a possible greeny block developing

towards the end of the month, and before you all say ,yeh its in Fi , its not the first time its been shown now and it looks to be a start of a TREND.

Normally the end of a GFS run would default to the azures high so lets see.

[January Snowstorm]

It must be said if we do get cold at the end of Nov it's looking far more likely from a Greenland high than a Scandi one.

In fact with Europe so mild we might be better off!

Of course if this does happen it kind of goes against GP & Meto.

Perhaps it can be summed up by nobody really knows beyond about 10 days and we are totally clueless beyond about 15 days!

[bobbydog]

Am I right in saying that chart was for 2011? Or was that done on purpose to illustrate similarities?

no, thats from todays 06z

and sorry shotski!

[shotski]

This is the chart

[Eskimo]

Am I right in saying that chart was for 2011? Or was that done on purpose to illustrate similarities?

EDIT: The '11' is for November, not the year, deary me I feel stupid

Edited November 9, 2012 by PerfectStorm

[Barry12]

This Winter will be similiar to 2010, but not as extreme. Cold and snow lovers dont worry!

[EML Network]

I think Roger may get this one wrong this winter regarding the early part that is, I see a split vortex taking place towards the end of the month / early December. Looking at the NH profile and comparing it to last year, then we are nowhere near at the same starting point as we were this time last year. I see a cold zonal set up throughout December, sure no Dec 2010 but for the Midlands Northwards it could be a very interesting month.

from an IMBY perspective cold zonal is about the worst case scenario , we get cold and rain here in that set up , when the rest of the entire universe basks in feet upon feet of lovely snow, from a purely selfish point of view I'd take anything over cold zonal, but I know most would be happy with that.

[shotski]

no, thats from todays 06z

and sorry shotski!

And it also appears on the 12z ?????? so lets see

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

And it also appears on the 12z ?????? so lets see

It's been appearing since about Weds in every run.

[Snowy Easterlies]

This Winter will be similiar to 2010, but not as extreme. Cold and snow lovers dont worry!

What are your reasons for this

[Barry12]

It's been appearing since about Weds in every run.

The GFS will come up with the goods

[UV-RAY]

from an IMBY perspective cold zonal is about the worst case scenario , we get cold and rain here in that set up , when the rest of the entire universe basks in feet upon feet of lovely snow, from a purely selfish point of view I'd take anything over cold zonal, but I know most would be happy with that.

Thats exactly how I feel regarding Easterlies, even those in the 80s gave us nothing in the way of snow until they broke down.

[Eskimo]

What are your reasons for this

Introspectively it's looking very similar to 2010 minus the stratospheric warming because well...there isn't one this year so far.

Edited November 9, 2012 by PerfectStorm