Winter 2012/13 - General Chat

[West Sussex Kate]

Stock up on food now! ;-)

[mcweather]

Erm, am I missing something about this MetO video here?

Didn't it just say, effectively, 'a bit colder, but dry and sunny'. Doesn't that mean no snow?

(Hoping I'm wrong, though)

Fizz

Hi Fizz

The main point is getting the easterly flow in place to get the cold air here after that a number of different scenarios could go on to produce snow

that is why people getting interested.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Give me a minute i will post some.

http://www.meteociel...nh=0&carte=1021

http://www.meteociel...your=8&annee=2010

http://www.meteociel...0&ech=6&carte=1

This was where it got interesting though.

http://www.meteociel...0&ech=6&carte=1

thanks for archive runs, could never find them, on the 8th the FI dosent lok that cold, but dosent look zonal

[feb1991blizzard]

To be fair anyway, all GIBBY has said is that there is nothing in the models at the moment to suggest a potent cold spell, he has said it looks mild for quite a while, but going by GIBBY's posts in the past, he would not try and forecast a month ahead.

[Polar Maritime]

If Gibby's thoughts are anything to by then that BBC video won't end up meaning jack squat but ah well if he's right then I suppose that Jan/Feb was always going to be our best and most realistic shot at cold anyway.

Gibby's thoughts in the MOD thread do not take the end of November into consideration.

[Cloud 10]

The Helen Willetts video and the post on the model thread by Ian Fergusson yesterday go hand in hand.

Weather - Cold weather on the way?

http://forum.netweat...20#entry2399153

[Polar Maritime]

The Helen Willetts video and the post on the model thread by Ian Fergusson yesterday go hand in hand.

Weather - Cold weather on the way?

http://forum.netweat...20#entry2399153

Exactly, people really should start listening to the experts.

[Great Plum]

Guys and gals, can anyone remind me when the ECM 32 dayer is out next as that's when the met will update their forecast?

[Met4Cast]

Erm, am I missing something about this MetO video here?

Didn't it just say, effectively, 'a bit colder, but dry and sunny'. Doesn't that mean no snow?

(Hoping I'm wrong, though)

Fizz

They're not going to forecast snow at this range, hell, the BBC rarely even mention the risk of snow beyond a 3 day period. The fact they're already putting up videos suggesting the possibility of colder weather at the end of the month is in itself something I've never seen before. This suggests to me that the MO are very confident that the end of the month could bring some noteworthy cold weather to the UK.

That, and the fact their longer range forecasts have consistently called for a cold end to the month.

[Paul]

I think there's a fair bit of misinformation going on here.

The video is a point of interest, the BBC are a media outlet - they may be led by the Met Office but these interest type videos aren't uncommon and are just that. I think some people are also missing a lot of the most important points being made - it's 1 of a number of possible scenarios being the vital one.

It's a long way off, it's talking about the output of the computer models (probably chiefly the ECM monthly output) showing something potentially colder from the east, but that doesn't mean it's time to start stocking up on soup and buying 4x4's just yet

[gottolovethisweather]

To be fair anyway, all GIBBY has said is that there is nothing in the models at the moment to suggest a potent cold spell, he has said it looks mild for quite a while, but going by GIBBY's posts in the past, he would not try and forecast a month ahead.

Precisely. and he is of course, simply commenting on the current runs, as in his post here to which we are referring, these being the 12z suites only.

His post tomorrow will reflect his thoughts, based solely on the 00z suites and then again, come the evening the 12zs. As other experienced folk have often mentioned, it pays to look for significant trends between the corresponding outputs. The way you choose to do this is up to the individual.

Edited November 8, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[feb1991blizzard]

Guys and gals, can anyone remind me when the ECM 32 dayer is out next as that's when the met will update their forecast?

Friday morning.

[itsnowjoke]

Actually thats not quite true. There is not a direct correlation however if a storm or series of storms moves up the eastern seabord giving heavy snow on its western side in the northeathern states and continues on a northern track it can pump warm air up the west coast of greenland which can in turn help to develop or sustain the Greenland high which can in turn bring cold and snow to the UK. So just occassionally although it is not thee same system the events in the USA can affect us down the line.

well my dad was nearlly right lol

thanks for your messages guys.

Well its time for bed and i promise i will pray for cold and snow

[SnowObsessor90]

Gibby's thoughts in the MOD thread do not take the end of November into consideration.

They do if read his most recent posts, he seems to think the MetO will backtrack sooner rather than later.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I think there's a fair bit of misinformation going on here.

The video is a point of interest, the BBC are a media outlet - they may be led by the Met Office to a point but these interest type videos aren't uncommon and are just that. I think some people are also missing a lot of the most important points being made - it's 1 of a number of possible scenarios being the vital one.

It's a long way off, it's talking about the output of the computer models (probably chiefly the ECM monthly output) showing something potentially colder from the east, but that doesn't mean it's time to start stocking up on soup and buying 4x4's just yet

Completely agree. Some people just can't resist setting themselves up for a potential fall Probably the same people that'll complain about Metoffice forecast accuracy if this fabled colder spell doesn't come off!

[Eskimo]

MetOffice or Gibby? Dozens of scientists with decades of expertise with millions of pounds worth of supercomputers or one mans educated guess? Shouldn't worry just yet guys...

[feb1991blizzard]

I would think a lot will depend on the strat, thats where i look every morning first thing, media forecasts will only react to what happens going forward.

Until its resolved, ie) a wavebreaking event or a downwelling of westerlies all the way down, the forecast will not be nailed, just my opinion. not knowledgeable but i read the thread where 90% of posters are.

Edited November 8, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Paul]

MetOffice or Gibby? Dozens of scientists with decades of expertise with millions of pounds worth of supercomputers or one mans educated guess? Shouldn't worry just yet guys...

But dare I say it, were it the other way round and Gibby was talking up cold with the meto less so you'd probably be singing from a different hymn sheet and backing him to the hilt.

Not meaning to pick you out personally, but the point is that all this posting over and over talking up the prospects of cold, looking for guarantees of cold and hidden meanings to anything which remotely suggests cold is possible is not going to make cold weather any more likely. Nor is this regular heavy backing of any source which talks up cold and virtually badmouthing anyone who isn't.

Going back to Gibby as an example, here's a respected member of the forum who has regularly been posting model summaries for some time, posts a balanced view of what the models are showing (nothing more, nothing less) yet tonight because he dares to suggest that the models aren't showing cold weather and he's getting a bit of a kicking, madness.... (Don't forget too, he's talking mid-range models here - eg not getting anywhere near in range of the end of the month yet).

Sometimes a bit of objectivity can go a long way, and maybe if we all stepped back a bit and looked at the bigger/overall picture rather than the exciting headlines there'd be less disappointment when these often over-hyped possibilities don't come to fruition - as you can be pretty sure that across the course of the winter there'll be some hits and some misses when it comes to cold spells

[feb1991blizzard]

I know the met office have upgraded their seasonal model to factor strat in more, does anyone know when the ECM 32dayer last had an upgrade?

Edited November 8, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

At least there is something worth talking about, i dare say we are not far off the time where we will be getting 80s charts in the 240 timeframe, last year there was very few right the way up to xmas and beyond, just shows you how strong the signal for mild was, even in zonal spells you can usuall rely on op FI to throw an 87 in, even if it is low res GFS.

[SnowObsessor90]

MetOffice or Gibby? Dozens of scientists with decades of expertise with millions of pounds worth of supercomputers or one mans educated guess? Shouldn't worry just yet guys...

I just can't help but the feel that the weather gods are just about to ready yet another sucker punch even with all of the more positive longer term signals as bar the winters of 09/10 and 10/11 that's generally seemed to be the way of things.

Here's hoping that I'm wrong.

[Cloud 10]

I think there's a fair bit of misinformation going on here.

The video is a point of interest, the BBC are a media outlet - they may be led by the Met Office to a point but these interest type videos aren't uncommon and are just that. I think some people are also missing a lot of the most important points being made - it's 1 of a number of possible scenarios being the vital one.

It's a long way off, it's talking about the output of the computer models (probably chiefly the ECM monthly output) showing something potentially colder from the east, but that doesn't mean it's time to start stocking up on soup and buying 4x4's just yet

Funnily enough the woman next door has just bought a brand new 4x4 today,a real beast of a thing it is.

She doesn't work for the met office though.

[feb1991blizzard]

Completely agree. Some people just can't resist setting themselves up for a potential fall Probably the same people that'll complain about Metoffice forecast accuracy if this fabled colder spell doesn't come off!

I see you always keep a very balanced calm view of things, you treat FI as FI and not as 48!, mind you it would have to be a powerhouse easterly for you get anything anyway, to get a tonking you would probably need a HP ridging all the way to iceland with - 12 uppers and a strong pressure gradient, that or an embedded front / trough in the flow.

Plus if it was that certain, i think Nick Sussex and Steve Murr would be posting loads, and Yamkin.

Edited November 8, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Eskimo]

Sorry for annoying anyone as I'm sure I have but It annoys me when someone says it's going to be cold and everyone follows that person like sheep, but the minute someone says it's going to be mild, the same applies. The Metoffice have decades of experience and I'm sure if they didn't have a clue what was going to happen they wouldn't supply that information and allow the BBC to broadcast it publicly, until they knew nearer to the time...as they normally do. As regards to one of many outcomes, why would they only show the cold scenario and not the others? Perhaps I'm being a little cynical.

[Cheshire Freeze]

mind you it would have to be a powerhouse easterly for you get anything anyway, to get a tonking you would probably need a HP ridging all the way to iceland with - 12 uppers and a strong pressure gradient, that or an embedded front / trough in the flow.

Plus if it was that certain, i think Nick Sussex and Steve Murr would be posting loads, and Yamkin.

Tell me about it! Not even 2009/2010 or 2010/2011 could produce depths more than 5cm here!