Winter 2012/13 - General Chat

[Vertical Limit]

But they did describe it as only one possible outcome...

Yes, a possible outcome but even so, they've spent a few quid on a short and specific video, 3-4 weeks in advance of the timescale which to me is not the usual thing they do, so it makes you think!

[124alex]

Yes, a possible outcome but even so, they've spent a few quid on a short and specific video, 3-4 weeks in advance of the timescale which to me is not the usual thing they do, so it makes you think!

wheres the video?

[Methuselah]

Yes, a possible outcome but even so, they've spent a few quid on a short and specific video, 3-4 weeks in advance of the timescale which to me is not the usual thing they do, so it makes you think!

Very true. Be we don't want SF (Snowmageddon Fever) breaking-out just yet?

Edited November 8, 2012 by Rybris Ponce

[london-snow]

After viewing the lrf from the meto and subsequent video produced by the bbc add to that the thoughts of more experienced members of this forum. Add all up and the back end of this month is one of potential excitement.

I was viewing the ECMWF last night and that pointed strongly to blocking to our north. Now although blocking is more favorable in terms of the uk receiving colder weather it all bottles down to where the blocking sits.

After viewing the video kindly put up by summer sun it points to a easterly flow how strong and how cold is up for debate. I also dont buy into the bbc stating drier and sunnier weather during this period as they are covering themselves which they are right too but i expect that line of sentencing to change in the coming weeks if the outlook stays as it is. Very encouraging none the less as i pointed out last night get the cold in place and worry about added details in the reliable time frame.

[Methuselah]

wheres the video?

Here you go, mucker: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/20257405

[itsnowjoke]

After viewing the lrf from the meto and subsequent video produced by the bbc add to that the thoughts of more experienced members of this forum. Add all up and the back end of this month is one of potential excitement.

I was viewing the ECMWF last night and that pointed strongly to blocking to our north. Now although blocking is more favorable in terms of the uk receiving colder weather it all bottles down to where the blocking sits.

After viewing the video kindly put up by summer sun it points to a easterly flow how strong and how cold is up for debate. I also dont buy into the bbc stating drier and sunnier weather during this period as they are covering themselves which they are right too but i expect that line of sentencing to change in the coming weeks if the outlook stays as it is. Very encouraging none the less as i pointed out last night get the cold in place and worry about added details in the reliable time frame.

I think thats a good way to think get the building blocks in place first.

I have tried to view the video it appears not to be working

[london-snow]

I think thats a good way to think get the building blocks in place first.

I have tried to view the video it appears not to be working

Always the way my friend.

No building blocks = No cold.

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

Always the way my friend.

No building blocks = No cold.

No snow

[Yozzer]

No building blocks

No cold

No snow

No vember

[Barry12]

Trying not to get too excited after watching that video

[itsnowjoke]

No building blocks

No cold

No snow

No vember

No building blocks

No cold

No snow

No vember

No rest for the wicked

[West Sussex Kate]

Trying not to get too excited after watching that video

Fingers crossed!! :-)

[london-snow]

No snow

Get the puzzle in place and worry about snow during the event itself. In the case we do get a easterly flow and it is cold enough to produce then it all comes down to how strong the flow is and the connectivity that comes from the ne-e coast.

Edited November 8, 2012 by london-snow

[UV-RAY]

Very true. Be we don't want SF (Snowmageddon Fever) breaking-out just yet?

Indeed RP, otherwise the potential letdown maybe fatal.

[Snowy Easterlies]

just my opinion but im not a fan of the metoffice how often are they right? they can't even forecast a snow event for the next day right sometimes

however i hope they are right of course this time for late nov

[Met4Cast]

just my opinion but im not a fan of the metoffice how often are they right? they can't even forecast a snow event for the next day right sometimes

however i hope they are right of course this time for late nov

They started talking about November/December 2010's cold around the 6th November, I'm surprised by the BBC video, but the MO updates have consistently pointed towards a cold end to the month. I think we can put some confidence in the MO Longrange, they'd improved drastically over the last couple of years

[Methuselah]

just my opinion but im not a fan of the metoffice how often are they right? they can't even forecast a snow event for the next day right sometimes

however i hope they are right of course this time for late nov

Sorry for sounding obtuse, SE. But to whom are you comparing?

[Snowy Easterlies]

They started talking about November/December 2010's cold around the 6th November, I'm surprised by the BBC video, but the MO updates have consistently pointed towards a cold end to the month. I think we can put some confidence in the MO Longrange, they'd improved drastically over the last couple of years

i hope they are right but im not gonna hang on to their word just because its what i want to hear, there have been many times where they have been wrong, egg on face springs to mind, im sure they have been right lots of times too but i never notice it for some reason, if they keep on consistently forecasting cold over the next couple of weeks for end of nov/early dec, then i will begin to have confidence in them

though tbh i don't really use the metoffice site anymore since they changed the layout of the site last year

[dryjoy]

The thing is, we all know that it is not possible to predict the weather accurately every time. Every time the Met Office stick their necks out, there is the chance they could get it wrong. But if they don't stick their necks out, then they might as well not bother. They have to take a risk.

I was gutted about that 'barbecue summer' incident a few years ago. Not because they got it wrong, but because of the ridiculous press reaction and the Met Office's subsequent withdrawal of their seasonal forecast. I wish they had been a bit more bold and continued with those, and I wish the press hadn't been so stupid.

They do seem to have an impressive track record with their 30 day outlook lately. I hope this might lead them to consider bringing back the seasonal forecasts.

[itsnowjoke]

I was just wondering about the snow event in th US will we be getting any of their weather?

Edited November 8, 2012 by itsnowjoke

[Barry12]

I was just wondering about the snow event in th US will we be getting any of their weather?

No...

[itsnowjoke]

No...

its just my dad used to say "Americas got snow we will be next"

[Barry12]

its just my dad used to say "Americas got snow we will be next"

Sorry but your Dad was wrong.

[itsnowjoke]

Sorry but your Dad was wrong.

He was called Barry too

[Barry12]

He was called Barry too

That's nice but it has no relevance to the Winter does it.