Winter 2012/13 - General Chat

[Eskimo]

There's isn't and never will be a correlation between the US weather and ours

[itsnowjoke]

That's nice but it has no relevance to the Winter does it.

i know i was just saying as he died recently and to see his name was nice thats all.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

16C forecast in new york on monday yay! they get too much snow, on the same latitude as Spain

[Eskimo]

Sorry to hear your loss snowjoke. I know I'm not a MOD but please stay on topic, things are getting exciting, lets not be downbeat!

[tcc]

i know i was just saying as he died recently and to see his name was nice thats all.

Sorry to hear that mate, it's a common misconception that whatever the States get (aka New York), we get. However that's not true. All we can do is keep an eye on the forecasts from the Meto, here etc and see what happens!

[AutumnMists]

The met office must have high confidence of a colder end to November other wise they wouldn't have made the video, there super computer must be picking up on something quite strongly

I would expect to see the first widespread snow of Winter certainly in the east at all levels if this came off, December 2010 repeated? who knows time will tell

Seems out of character for you to say that

To be realistic though, perhaps a pattern similar to November/December 2008?

(25th November 2008 to 6th December 2008, a seasonable start to Winter especially in the North, Pennines seeing locally around 15cm of snow which lasted on the hills until the 10th December). I recall this one very well as it was pretty much the largest snowfall since 2005. (Despite this, as I said, it was sort of a more 'seasonable' start to the Winter than an 'extreme' one like 2010).

Edited November 8, 2012 by hedgehog4

[gottolovethisweather]

To be realistic though, perhaps a pattern similar to November/December 2008?

(25th November 2008 to 6th December 2008, a seasonable start to Winter especially in the North, Pennines seeing locally around 15cm of snow which lasted on the hills until the 10th December). I recall this one very well as it was pretty much the largest snowfall since 2005. (Despite this, as I said, it was sort of a more 'seasonable' start to the Winter than an 'extreme' one like 2010).

Whilst you're at it, 2005, 2008 and 2010 are all broadly similar to the currently suggested projections for late November into December and have a similarity to where we are now. Although, the more experienced folk in Meteorological circles suggest we shouldn't pattern match, it certainly seems uncanny.

Please note my use of the underlined words above, as like anything at t+6 and above, its all subject to significant change.

Now you lot, let's carry on with our predictions, expectations, hopes and wishes.

Edited November 8, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[AutumnMists]

Whilst you're at it, 2005, 2008 and 2010 are all broadly similar to the currently suggested projections for late November into December and have a similarity to where we are now. Although, the more experienced folk in Meteorological circles suggest we shouldn't pattern match, it certainly seems uncanny during the current time.

Please note my use of the underlined words above, as like anything at t+6 and above, its all subject to significant change.

Now you lot, let's carry on with our predictions, expectations, hopes and wishes.

I think I may have explained that a bit too vague

I shouldn't have used the word pattern, I was just throwing some ideas across really. Thank you for your input though

[Barry12]

It's eerily similiar to the build up from the met to 2010 it has to be said, wether it will be anything like that remains to be seen.

i know i was just saying as he died recently and to see his name was nice thats all.

I am sorry to hear that.

[mcweather]

There's isn't and never will be a correlation between the US weather and ours

Actually thats not quite true. There is not a direct correlation however if a storm or series of storms moves up the eastern seabord giving heavy snow on its western side in the northeathern states and continues on a northern track it can pump warm air up the west coast of greenland which can in turn help to develop or sustain the Greenland high which can in turn bring cold and snow to the UK. So just occassionally although it is not thee same system the events in the USA can affect us down the line.

Edited November 8, 2012 by mcweather

[feb1991blizzard]

Actually thats not quite true. There is not a direct correlation however if a storm or series of storms moves up the eastern seabord giving heavy snow on its western side in the northeathern states and continues on a northern track it can pump warm air up the west coast of greenland which can in turn help to develop or sustain the Greenland high which can in turn bring cold and snow to the UK. So just occassionally although it is not thee same system the events in the USA can affect us down the line.

I would go even further, storm tracks in the USA and upstream teleconnections are directly related to the strength and track of the jet downstream.

Edited November 8, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[mcweather]

I would go even further, storm track and upstream teleconnections are directly related to the strength and track of the downstream jet.

I agree Feb, I was just trying to explain it in relation to the old 'us getting the snow the americans get in ten days time' chestnut.

[Nights King]

The met office must have high confidence of a colder end to November other wise they wouldn't have made the video, there super computer must be picking up on something quite strongly

I would expect to see the first widespread snow of Winter certainly in the east at all levels if this came off, December 2010 repeated? who knows time will tell

Either that or someone spilt their coffee and donuts on it...

[ITSY]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/20257405

I don't think the BBC would publish something like this if they were not seriously concerned that something could unfold that would be of real potency. It is of course only a possibility, and perhaps it's due to recent severe cold spells and the more recent surprise snowfall, but I can't recall them doing this before...they must be pretty confident? Combine that with Steven's superb video output and we could, sooner or later this winter, see something very interesting.

[feb1991blizzard]

I agree Feb, I was just trying to explain it in relation to the old 'us getting the snow the americans get in ten days time' chestnut.

Yes, it has probably happened many a time that a realy amplified low over the water has been the trigger for a GH and people not in the know put 2 and 2 together, all the cold air gets mixed out when storms move across the atlantic.

[syed2878]

i must say the bbc or the met wouldn't put out a video likely after their summer 2-3 years ago forecast went hurrablie wrong. I mean they stopt doing lrf's after that cockup to the publick anyway. So they must be pritty confident for an up and coming cold sbell. By the way any news from mat.h regarding the ecm seasonal update?

[mcweather]

http://www.bbc.co.uk.../feeds/20257405

I don't think the BBC would publish something like this if they were not seriously concerned that something could unfold that would be of real potency. It is of course only a possibility, and perhaps it's due to recent severe cold spells and the more recent surprise snowfall, but I can't recall them doing this before...they must be pretty confident? Combine that with Steven's superb video output and we could, sooner or later this winter, see something very interesting.

Quite so Itsy, More importantly the Met office are usually extremely cautious in their public utterances. so they must have some very strong signals that things will pan out this way to put this on a public video so far ahead of time.

[SnowObsessor90]

If Gibby's thoughts are anything to by then that BBC video won't end up meaning jack squat but ah well if he's right then I suppose that Jan/Feb was always going to be our best and most realistic shot at cold anyway.

[feb1991blizzard]

Quite so Itsy, More importantly the Met office are usually extremely cautious in their public utterances. so they must have some very strong signals that things will pan out this way to put this on a public video so far ahead of time.

After Sundays unexpected snow perhaps they are going to the other extreme!!!!!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

What were archive model runs like this time in 2010? early to mid nov, more promising or less promosing for cold, strat etc, I cant remember now, as I used to generally think early nov is too early to be excited about snow

[snowstorm445]

From the bold man himself:

"The chance of a white Christmas is above average, with signs of high pressure blocking increasing the chance of colder than average conditions."

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/bookies-slash-the-odds-on-another-white-christmas-3285230.html

I know its not specifically winter, but did he not downgrade the possibility of a white Christmas in the past few weeks? Not surprising IMO, considering his record of backtracking on previous forecasts.

[feb1991blizzard]

What were archive model runs like this time in 2010? early to mid nov, more promising or less promosing for cold, strat etc, I cant remember now, as I used to generally think early nov is too early to be excited about snow

Give me a minute i will post some.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?jour=13&mois=11&annee=2010&heure=0&archive=1&mode=&ech=6&map=&nh=0&carte=1021

http://www.meteociel...your=8&annee=2010

http://www.meteociel...0&ech=6&carte=1

This was where it got interesting though.

http://www.meteociel...0&ech=6&carte=1

Edited November 8, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Ice Day]

I really hope people don't treat this BBC video as gospel. Sure it's something worth keeping an eye on but we've seen nailed on easterlies disappear only 36 hours out, so to get too carried away with something 3 weeks away will likely lead to much disappointment and gnashing of teeth. Of course it may happen, but in my view I would give it no better than a 20% chance of coming to fruition (perhaps my negativity is my subconscious trying to tempt fate!!!).

[fizz511]

Erm, am I missing something about this MetO video here?

Didn't it just say, effectively, 'a bit colder, but dry and sunny'. Doesn't that mean no snow?

(Hoping I'm wrong, though)

Fizz

[mcweather]

If Gibby's thoughts are anything to by then that BBC video won't end up meaning jack squat but ah well if he's right then I suppose that Jan/Feb was always going to be our best and most realistic shot at cold anyway.

The point is the BBC gets its info from the Met office so the info they are using on that video is backed up by the Met office who are extremely cautious in their public utterances and would not allow anything like this to be put out if they didn't have a pretty high expectation of it coming off. So jack squat is probably not a fair summation. The Met office is not the only source suggesting this scenario either.

Edited November 8, 2012 by mcweather