Winter 2012/13 - General Chat

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

No: it was produced to explain rationale for UKMO 30-d comments after internal discussion.

Thanks Ian, that is the explanation sought. Appreciated BFTP

[chiffer]

Can I have a link to that video please?

[georgiedre]

Met s update is for favoring cold but could go either way! Cant attatch soz

[bobbydog]

No: it was produced to explain rationale for UKMO 30-d comments after internal discussion.

interesting... how did you find that out?

[johnholmes]

interesting... how did you find that out?

Are you not aware that he presents a weather forecast and as such has a link both to written output and verbal output at regular daily discussions which include the senior man at Exeter?

[johnholmes]

the latest 6-15 and 16-30 day outlook link is below

PLEASE folk read them carefully and try not to do bit posts of those sections you like?

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Edited November 9, 2012 by johnholmes

[chionomaniac]

interesting... how did you find that out?

The clue may be in his sig!

[chionomaniac]

the latest 6-15 and 16-30 day outlook link is below

PLEASE folk read them carefully and try not to do bit posts of those sections you like?

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

That to me says 6-15 day is cold zonality - NW flow common -Long wave trough situated north to south across country.

Followed by a very slightly favoured mid lat high into December

[Eskimo]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/about/newsid_8452000/8452892.stm

Maybe this will help how Ian Ferguson knows?

[Paul]

I guess that's good news then, I assume we'll be seeing regular videos on the BBC website throughout the winter explaining the rationale behind the met 30 day outlooks, even when they're not that exciting, can only be a nice addition

[bobbydog]

Are you not aware that he presents a weather forecast and as such has a link both to written output and verbal output at regular daily discussions which include the senior man at Exeter?

The clue may be in his sig!

note to self- "read sig"

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

That to me says 6-15 day is cold zonality - NW flow common -Long wave trough situated north to south across country.

Followed by a very slightly favoured mid lat high into December

The met office 16-30 day outlook says to me the beast from the east with day time temps struggling to get above -5c and heavy snow widespread :-)

[Heisenberg]

The met office 16-30 day outlook says to me the beast from the east with day time temps struggling to get above -5c and heavy snow widespread :-)

Warning out soon then

Edited November 9, 2012 by lloydyd

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Warning out soon then

Yeah for sure, probably early next week LOL

[bobbydog]

i have had a look back at the Meto long range charts, to see how reliable they have been. i found that they did not pick up on the 09/10 cold spells at all, which was consistent with the meto winter forecast (they still did them back then).

For 10/11, they were predicting above average up to octobers update, then novembers update completely flipped the opposite way. this was approximately three weeks before the end of november cold spell.

last winter was consistent with average to above (which was fairly accurate). up to now they have been showing colder than average, so i'm eagerly awaiting the latest update

it should be noted that these charts are not a forecast but a tool for use in forecasting. however they are a very good indicator as to expected conditions

[garbagebags]

That is all.

[Eskimo]

That is all.

That area of low pressure could slip underneath the cold and drift eastwards towards Spain, acting as a conveyor belt to drive that cold further west, interesting!

[Cheshire Freeze]

So, here we are. 9th November and most probably close enough in now to make a reasonable assumption on the broad NH synoptic trends over the course of the upcoming winter.

The ECM update is poor news, no doubting that; coupled with a CFS which has also trended zonal knocks my beliefs over this winter producing some noteworthy cold. There's a thought in my mind that given a weak ENSO signal and not unfavourable SST signal that these models are extrapolating from stratospheric input into the tropospheric set up. I also don't believe for one minute that they can forecast potential long range model 'banana skins' such as SSW events. Stratospherically we are not in a good place at the moment however any successful upwelling will depend completely on synoptic set ups within the next 2-4 weeks- after that if no upwelling is successful I fear we may be past the tipping point where the cold upper and mid layers downwell and translate to a powerful vortex lower down.

Perhaps this is what the ECM seasonal is seeing.

My personal thoughts? 70% in favour of zonal unfortunately.

[SnowObsessor90]

My personal thoughts? 70% in favour of zonal unfortunately.

Is this just for the earlier winter period? can you see things improving in Jan/Feb etc?

Edited November 9, 2012 by Anonymous21

[Paul]

Removed some posts just then which were responding to a previously deleted post - don't rise to the bait

[AWD]

I'm personally finding it difficult to call the end of November/beginning of December currently, let alone the next 3 months.

With conflicting signs about where we go at the end of the month, with forecasts & longe range model output suggesting both a colder or a milder scenario, I couldn't put a forecast for Jan & Feb out even if you paid me.

Whether winter ends up being mild or cold, I have found this season one of the most difficult but at the same time, interesting to try & forecast.

[Eskimo]

Removed some posts just then which were responding to a previously deleted post - don't rise to the bait

Sorry Paul

[Cheshire Freeze]

Is this just for the earlier winter period? can you see things improving in Jan/Feb etc?

I actually agree with Roger & BFTP, Feb just might be a goer this year. Going to be a lot of patience tested this year maybe!

[EML Network]

The NAO update is a mixed one this afternoon.

Where as yesterday's forecast had every member going for a quick return into negative values, today's update is a bit more split.

Worryingly we now have 2 members going for values to stay into the positive , reversely we have 2 going for a deep negative,

but the majority are still going for a return into a negative phase.

What has also changed is the length of which we need to endure the positive phase for, it's been extended by a few more days, hopefully not the beginnings of a trend, more just a firming up.

So all in all things haven't really changed all that much, but a 3 way split is beginning to emerge

[SnowObsessor90]

I actually agree with Roger & BFTP, Feb just might be a goer this year. Going to be a lot of patience tested this year maybe!

Well for now I'm still going to be clinging to GP's thoughts. Even if things don't end up immediately going according to plan in December doesn't end going according to plan then that still doesn't discount the possibility of a - AO winter overall which he seems fairly confident of.

Edited November 9, 2012 by Anonymous21